SnowDeac
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Everything posted by SnowDeac
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Saw a few pingers on the way into work this morning mixed in with mostly rain. Always good to see frozen precip this early, even if it's meaningless.
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Yeah, the Raleigh metro has a bit more a variance based on storm track, particularly on the coastal lows. In Charlotte, I don't believe I've seen a single storm since I've been here (2010) where the southern (and possibly eastern) metro area exceeds the northern and western.
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Radar looks awful for the Charlotte area. Starting to fill in nicely RDU, GSO, Asheboro. 2nd round cancel?!
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All of NC, or primarily RDU area?
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Lubbock now at 9 inches and still snowing. Going to be one of the largest 5-6 storms on record there. 2nd snowiest day ever in December. Vast majority from the ULL. Amarillo getting blanked. I'd say that's a positive for all of us, especially folks on the southern side. I've also noticed a few local maximums showing, especially on the NAM, south and east of Charlotte. That's quite surprising, especially given where we were last night. I'm guessing it's either a heavier front end thump due to rates, or that ULL low rolling through at the end.
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Brad P adjusting his totals SOUTH. Hinted earlier that he might have the metro more in the 4-8" range. Have not seen his new maps yet (on at 11), but I'm very curious as to what he's seeing. Hopefully not just too busy to have seen the recent (non-GFS) model suite.
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8 years for me as well! Normally, GSP is less bullish than the models, so this is an interesting change of pace. Hopefully they're right!
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I'm really trying not to have a complete meltdown at the moment. Only GSP's forecast for the metro area and points north is keeping me from throwing in the towel. I don't even know why I get emotionally invested at this point. Hoping for winter weather in CLT is like cheering for the Browns. Although, actually, the Browns are showing some promise this year.
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Looks like the north trend is still real.
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Yeah, Lucy is lurking with the football for Charlotte proper and south/east as well. Will be in Denver/Stanley on Sunday though, and they should do much better.
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Why doesn't the GSP WSW language match up at all with the GSP current expected snowfall maps? Seems odd. 2-6 for the metro sounds very reasonable, but the mountains could easily exceed 6-10.
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Must be more in the way of sleet or just plain rain. I assume the former? Do the Kuchera maps account for sleet?
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Shame on the glutton VA posters that always cash in pulling for the freaking NAM to devastate us southern folks. SHAME!
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I just, after 9+ years of lurking/occasionally posting, learned how to read a sounding. For some reason, I never realized the degree lines were diagonal. I'm normally a fairly bright guy, I swear.
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Brad is on point as usual, although I think sometimes he speaks too much in absolutes (re: high totals not even possibly verifying). Is Charlotte likely to get 10" as GSP is calling? Hell no. Is it possible? Yes.
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I feel like this gets asked for many storms, but unfortunately I can't find the answer. What would be better for temperature profiles this evening: if the cloud cover rolls in to keep daytime temperatures down, or clear skies to allow dynamic cooling? I assume the latter, but am also unsure if it makes much of a difference in this case.
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Interesting how Widre is now relatively positive and this PackWxMan dude is the heat miser that's easy to dislike. Not to say this won't be a bust, especially for fringe areas like CLT and RDU.
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Where is the other 1.5 in of QPF? Plain rain? It's not a ridiculous guess given climo and potential late north adjustments, but this seems very off base, given recent model trends.
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How can GSP possibly have 8 inches as the "low end" (90% likely for more) for CLT? That makes no sense to me, at all, especially given the high end is 13 and "predicted" is 12. AVL, for example, is 3 on low, 4 on predicted, and 13 on high. It seems they're completely discounting the NAM and assuming the profile will support snow for the vast majority of the storm. That doesn't seem likely at all, let alone 90% likely.
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Trends aren't good, but I'll stick with the government officials forecasting a foot, over a couple lousy model runs. At least for now.
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That would be absolutely insane, even given the last few years. A gradient of almost zero in Rock Hill to 2 feet in Mooresville is surely unprecedented. Fortunately, I'll be up in Denver for "early in-law Christmas" on Sunday. Although, I guess I could get stuck there...
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Is that not a warm nose jutting right into the southern metro area? I'm expecting an absurd gradient from Fort Mill up to Mooresville, as is often (almost always?) the case?
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Yep, that all makes sense. I wonder if anyone has a latitude/longitude benchmark for CLT/RDU/other cities similar to 40-70 that is so often used for the I-95 corridor in the NE?
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Forgive my ignorance , but in a gulf system this strong, is there a potential for a ULL to form on the west side of the system? I feel like we've seen that with some storms in the past that allow the storm to "make it's own cold", but have not seen anything like that modeled here.
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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.
SnowDeac replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
For those already warm nosed, I think the only shot at any accumulations will be the backside/deform band snow that is being depicted currently by all of the short term models. Hopefully can paint a wide swath of an inch or two.
