Yes we’ve seen plenty of sub 985 lows cutting into Albany and know what happens south of there. If the secondary can pop early enough and stay south of CT then it’ll be close..
It’s also not a frigid airmass temps will be between 30-32.. the classic damaging ice storms have temps in the low to mid 20s then max out in the upper 20s with temps crashing after. This one temps will be just below freezing during the peak freezing rain then climb above freezing melting the ice before the winds later Sunday. Temps will stay below freezing if you are near and north of Rt 2 but by that latitude there will be more sleet.
EURO a near miss, phase too far NE , as it moves SE of BM, light to moderate hit still.. Warnings snow SE areas, Runnaway special.. Absolute bomb but too late for us for the real goods
That map will verify pretty well for New England from 2/2 to 2/17 .. Just not the excessive high end amounts we all envisioned , only place that may come up just short is in between rt 2 and rt 84.. Just happened to verify as 6 light snow events
RGEM is a touch colder for you guys for the "Thump" but warms quicker and is warmer on Sunday gets the city into the mid 50s and south CT into mid 40s..
Nice trend at 00z, looks like every piece of guidance ticked back warmer again at 6z.. Euro primary actually went south of SNE at 00z, 6z cuts through SNE
Ya you will be better than me in keeping the cold pack. Hope to cool things down more. My pack is looking nice, all these little events piling up it looks and feels like deep winter for a change.
We’ve had other storms mixed in, much of SNE has 6-12” since Feb 2nd . Our area 8-10”.. The snowy period on ensembles was Feb 2nd-Feb 17.. we have another 2-4” before Feb 17. Which will bring most of southern New England to 8-16”. Again not what we wanted but not a complete bust.. we hit the 15-20th percentile of what was possible.