Sey-Mour Snow

Look at euro snow output through day 12 for some comedic relief

rev is that you?

Today 50-55 , tomorrow a few squalls

Actually several models and ensembles like your area .. We will see if it holds at 12z

HRRR is like 55-60 for the Boston Metro, around 55 for Kevin and Hartford metro

Maybe we can get lucky like the old days and pull of a Feb 7 2021 weenie band Sunday/Monday https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-7-2021 That storm was forecast to be a massive hit in the mid range, then had the rug pulled in the 48-72 hour range came back last second to still be 6-12"

6z update on Sunday/Monday threat .. GFS NW moderate hit for ENE, EURO ticked SE, AIFS NW - light to moderate hit ENE

Well after the fake -NAO tease for early Jan .. We all said Jan 15th period was possible but unlikely, the first real threats would show up Jan-18 on beyond .. It's still the case even though Jan 18 is still very low probs and next week looks boring for now..

Lastly all ensembles are ideal post that overrunning threat next weekend..

Large precip signal still on ensembles for next weekend as Scott said.. .Just watching ensembles for now, hopefully we get more hits showing up on ops as we get closer.. This period still could be snow/rain/ice for New England ..

Yup, NOT with GFS leading the way.. Wait til the real models show a hit .. EPS is about a 5-15% probability of plowable for Eastern New England, pretty low odds but still day 5 so time to trend.

Congrats Orlando by verification ? That’s actually one of the snowiest storms I’ve ever seen modeled, it has 65-75” around Pittsburgh 40-50” 10:1 from that one storm .. Huge swath of 15-30” probably 1,000 miles on a more serious note.. ensembles are all pointing to a high qpf overrunning event for this same period. So while this extreme mother of all snowstorms is highly unlikely , a significant overrunning type winter storm is being signaled by all ensembles for days 9 through 11, whether it’s rain/ ice / snow , or shreds we shall see..

I’d say ensembles show potential after the 20th. That could all easily be rain…. We will be flirting with the gradient.. pattern has gone exactly as expected by most so far this month, minus the no snow bad luck part

Canadian Parallel has had this threat as well. Something to keep an eye on..

For the very little it’s worth bc the GFS/GEFS is on everyone’s shit list including mine.. GEFS have about 25% of its members that turn that wave into a snowstorm here Sunday PM/Monday AM

Difference this time is Canadian looks the same through day 10. We shall see…

12z gfs is one of the ugliest op runs I’ve ever seen.

I think it will take a collective group name change all at once to flip our luck..

Let’s do it! Sey-Less snow or “Sey-Mour snow than Methuen”

The final week of January doesn’t look dry.

No but I’ll take a Feb 2021 walking through the door please

What’s sad is that SNE will have less than a few inches of snow this month through Jan 20th.

Ya gfs has a wave on the 20th, euro closer with 18th..

Ensembles don't like 1/18 but there have been some hits on the ops ocassionally in the 1/18-1/20 time frame

Only hope for widespread snow is a NW amplification trend on around MLK day for the next 7 days.. Guidance is still all over the place after that in terms of where the cold goes and where the gradient sets up .. There also seems to be an overrunning set up the end of next week in the 9-12 day range .. But again have to see where the gradient sets up