EURO would argue for a really nice band well west over the River .. We can hope that verifies but East of the river is 100% still very much in the game
Damn high stakes for ENE .. Flip flopping continues
ENE - equal odds for either:
1. Major hit
2. light to moderate blow
3. Scrape miss
West of River - 50% miss/scrape 30% light to mod hit 20% major hit
If this ends up scraping, the GFS needs to be retired, that would be 4 medium range busts/caves in a row. Still have 84-96 hours to get it 75 miles west for most of us though so we track
lol I was just posting maps too you guys beat me to it .. that’s not just a bump northwest that’s a 15-20” mean at day 5 for SEMASS. 5-10” to ENY. GFS has burnt us quite a bit this winter in the medium range so I’m very wary. But as we’ve said we would expect a strong Miller A to move NW as we get closer so we shall see what the other guidance says.
absolutely wild, so amped.. tucked in deep members, High probs for 6"+ for a good chunk of NE. 24"+ odds for southeast Mass. Still 5 days away so wild to see those kinds of odds
Just for fun and an idea of what that 6z run showed if it went out 24 more hours, it's widespread 2' plus of snow for at least SNE, with 50-70 mph winds.. On top of what we have now
The snow last night didn't materialize into much more than flurries, although it flurried all night. .3" overnight for a total of 16.0" in 24 hours . Cleared twice yesterday
The phasing happens at day 5, with the pieces in place by day 4.. This storm is gaining traction quickly.. A lot of wiggle room with all of the key ingredients in place, the trough just sits there waiting to buckle..