Sey-Mour Snow
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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow
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It’s a wide swath of 8-12”+ verbatim but ya it is best case -
It said it’s discounting the operational euro and blending ai euro and graphcast
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lol me too , wow declaring a win 42 hours before a storm is never good
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Will the Canadian servers be able to handle the weenies refreshing the biggest Rgem run since 2015
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NAM has been that way too, btw NAM doesn’t look too good at 00z
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Where did they drop seems the same to me? nothing has changed since they issued it, every piece of guidance held their 12z stance except NAM beefed up. I’d 00z backs off towards euro then yes they will decrease that
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zero are exactly like rgem and gfs.. 10 members are amped and are well west of the operational run.. The amped members are like 75% as zonked as the GFS .. just looked at the precip panels .. interesting its more impressive than I thought, some of this east of the river is from saturday but west of river this is mostly sunday .. @OceanStWx
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Here is the 90th percentile for reference it’s further west and more impressive than 12z.. The 75th and 90th percentile are the ones that show those western members I assume, that mean is more impressive and further west than 12z was . The 10th and 25th percentile are pretty dry. Still so much uncertainty on eps but some more moderate hits that are further west. Let’s see if that translates to a more amped and west move at 00z.
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Not really, you look for a lean, especially when other guidance is leaning that way.. we will find out at 00z if those west leaners were a blip or not. There’s actually a lot of far east members skewing it east. Interesting I wonder if we take those out at 00z and eps jumps west.
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10 out of 51 would have been well west of the op.
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More than 12z is the point
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If you look at the individual eps members there’s several members that are mini versions of Rgem and gfs now that are pretty far west .. 12z only had a few
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Watches up for all of CT except coast and SE Shore. So they are going with the amped guidance.. Let's see what their discussion says.. earlier discussion threw NAM out and included EURO AI in the forecast..
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Long range HRRR remains very far west and amped, very RGEM like
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That you should leave Nancy home and tune up the snow blower, a small tic sharper with the trough on EURO will be all the difference between 3-5 and 4-8"+ .. Only time will tell..
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I don't think this ends up that dry, EURO will beef up ..
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I can see it now, 18z euro barely budges, then 00z nam has an 12-18" stripe from West Hartford to Portland ME
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4-8 is just a slant stick away
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From an NWS point of view? If NAM and every piece of guidance is all in on 4-8"+ for the region but euro doesn't budge much at 18z and is on an island alone, what happens then?
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Looks like EURO AI is unchanged on the lower resolution graphics.. Has that GFS 30% EURO 70% blend idea we just mentioned.. very solid for many
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Ya if you go like 70% euro and 30% GFS and just discount GEM .. you get like a general 4-6" snow for CT and most in SNE not including ratios with the good bands.. I like our first call of 4-8" iso higher
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ya sucks he's not here to enjoy the chase, just noticed that
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Theres a good 8-10 members further west than the op.. Op was about where the bulk of members are.. 25-50 miles SE of BM
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ya but we are 48 hours out this time.. GFS fully caved by like 96-108 last time .. This is weird
