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Sey-Mour Snow

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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow

  1. Sey-Mour Snow
    All the lean on ensembles has been SW, I think it’s reached its NE limit
  2. Sey-Mour Snow
    I think the real guidance ticks back SW at 18z
  3. Sey-Mour Snow
    Yes only thing is HRRR looks spot on with other globals NAM doesn’t
  4. Sey-Mour Snow
    3km and RRFS are much further south like the other models, NAM is drunk
  5. Sey-Mour Snow
    Expanded everything further NE
  6. Sey-Mour Snow
    HRRR about to bang this run / NE Trend continues this one will jack my Binghamton to BDR zone
  7. Sey-Mour Snow
    Ratios are amazing for 2-3 hours in the band then average at best
  8. Sey-Mour Snow
    I could see locally 8-10” jack somewhere that gets lucky
  9. Sey-Mour Snow
    Euro back to the 00z look after 6z bumped SW
  10. Sey-Mour Snow
    I def see warnings for at least half the state
  11. Sey-Mour Snow
    NWS upton is very stubborn with adjusting to the NE trend, watches should be further east and totals adjusted up.. the Jack no longer looks like NYC metro which they have ..
  12. Sey-Mour Snow
    I think things definitely de amp as we get to 00z tonight.. Will be a 6-8" jack zone locally 10.. and 3-6" around that with 1-3" on the fringes.. Not some of these wild solutions we've seen. Euro has had the right idea of not being too amped..
  13. Sey-Mour Snow
    I’ve definitely thought this. Would be be surprised if it we get the one max Binghamton to bdr then another slightly less max around Kevin
  14. Sey-Mour Snow
    GFS looks very euro like and reasonable
  15. Sey-Mour Snow
    NYC in trouble
  16. Sey-Mour Snow
    RRFS finally on board whats a 250 mile multi run shift amongst drunk brothers
  17. Sey-Mour Snow
    Icon, RGEM, RRFS all NE at 12z small bump with Icon .. I think ground zero will end up being an axis from Binghamton to BDR 15 miles either side of that line
  18. Sey-Mour Snow
    That's the RGEM
  19. Sey-Mour Snow
    Don't recall the last storm with heavy snow temps in the teens and wind chills around zero..
  20. Sey-Mour Snow
    Reggie went SW at 6z, Herpes is what you looked at which is erratic and unusable usually, but every blind squirrel
  21. Sey-Mour Snow
    I feel like those are modeled every decent storm, then fade quick as storm starts, models are more weenies that us.. They happen but are very rare ..
  22. Sey-Mour Snow
    Called the hartford jack this run
  23. Sey-Mour Snow
    From Tomer.. His model ratio calculates 4-5" per hour over SENY and NNJ in that band lmao
  24. Sey-Mour Snow
    You gotta check out modeled soundings for HPN under that mega band on HRRR
  25. Sey-Mour Snow
    I mean plenty of guidance supports 6-8" . I like 4-8/6-10 to give more of a range. We haven't had things break our way in a while, so it's best to stay conservative. Right now north west NYC metro is favored..
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