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Sey-Mour Snow

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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow

  1. Sey-Mour Snow
    Better tilt to trough precip a bit further north , probably a widespread 1-2” north and 2-4” south coast this run .. edit the meat is still just a bit too far south for us.. could be 4”+ widespread in that band.. but a relatively believable Nam run
  2. Sey-Mour Snow
    Much better at 54 very healthy precious shield and further north
  3. Sey-Mour Snow
    Yes same idea, torch and pre up nearby with lingering cold over New England and Canada
  4. Sey-Mour Snow
    Stop it. No snow weenie would ever truly say that. Floridas climate is like hell to me. 3 months of deep summer like we have is perfect
  5. Sey-Mour Snow
    Yes agree, especially south of 84.
  6. Sey-Mour Snow
    No dry air to overcome
  7. Sey-Mour Snow
    That’s the million dollar question, talking with Dylan now about that. I’m leaning model blend which gives about .15-.30” qpf across the state. However if gfs and others trend the wrong way tonight then this is just another coating or so.
  8. Sey-Mour Snow
    These amounts plus great ratios and many south of 84 get 2-4”
  9. Sey-Mour Snow
    Euro def bumped NW at 18z with the goods. As long as 00z doesn’t shit the bed I like 2-4” for most of ct iso 4”+ just inland from south coast if we can get a good fronto band. Coating to 2” near ct/mass border to rt 2.
  10. Sey-Mour Snow
    NAM would still be a solid 2-4” for much of CT bc of ratios.
  11. Sey-Mour Snow
    ya that was a let down after the other guidance looking beefy
  12. Sey-Mour Snow
    Tick tick tick
  13. Sey-Mour Snow
    Problem is both AI models have been slowly trending to a non event.. After both showing a moderate hit yesterday.. Another few ticks and they will look like the 6z gfs .. Really would like to see GFS make a good move towards EURO multiple runs in a row
  14. Sey-Mour Snow
    Bumped north but its more like the 18z gfs from yesterday ..
  15. Sey-Mour Snow
    I'd say 1/3 of the GEFS members keep us below freezing on Christmas ..
  16. Sey-Mour Snow
    All I was looking for was for it to not be flat.. Big hit for recent times here would be 6"+ for many in CT verbatim.. The red flag was if it was not amped , so we are good, that's all we can use the NAM for. If the AMP happy NAM can't show a hit then we were in trouble IMO..
  17. Sey-Mour Snow
    It's a good hit, but it's the nam after 6 hours so we take with a grain of salt, but just feel good that it wasn't gfs like ..
  18. Sey-Mour Snow
    If NAM isn’t super amped at 12z it’s a flag IMO
  19. Sey-Mour Snow
    I like 2-5” for ct as of now as a ceiling, hoping we start locking in and mid levels produce some good growth and fluff. But we really can’t afford a gfs euro compromise if so it’s a coating to 2” type deal.
  20. Sey-Mour Snow
    Idk about several hundred miles lol we are talking about snow in New England not Hudson Bay
  21. Sey-Mour Snow
    GFS is soupy 80s to Virginia where they have deep pack now lol .. I can see Christmas week delivering a nasty ice storm for the northeast GFS has the cold in Canada ready to be tapped .. Kevin may get his dream, a very dark Christmas
  22. Sey-Mour Snow
    Talk to us when it shows it at 12z
  23. Sey-Mour Snow
    GFS is the steadiest with this one. Can’t trust those damn off hour runs especially Euro it’s done this way too many times. My rule of thumb is unless we get two complete model 00z/12z suites by gfs and euro in a row showing a storm I’m not buying it.
  24. Sey-Mour Snow
    And the torch won’t make the snow go poof, bc there won’t be any on the ground.
  25. Sey-Mour Snow
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