Sey-Mour Snow

Fact of the matter is. This period was never highlighted as snowy on ensembles, long wave pattern was there, but we knew it was a long shot, and as unscientific as it is, the ensembles were never snowy. This weekend is gravy, the money pattern is Jan 22-Feb 2nd. Could be an epic stretch.. Ensembles are honking… yes we have heard this before, but we should have 2 shots at big qpf producers over a cold dome.

I am not taking any sides , I give up, just kind of wait and see approach

Pretty epic never seen highs modeled below zero down here.. there is very strong agreement on an epicly cold and potential very snow 15 days starting Saturday. Regardless of what happens Sunday.

I mean the EURO op and EURO AIFS look nothing alike for Sunday at 500….

AIFS with a solid move west pretty close with GFS AI now,

The AIGFS has 7 snow events in the next 12 days.

GFS and GEFS are 100% unusable .. the flip flopping is atrocious .. sticking with AIs EURO and then hires close in for now..

Probably not til Saturday. Hoping for a few inches from both..

Looks borderline SE of 84 and warm SE of 95. Will need rates and timing to be early morning. I couldn’t see a stripe of 2-4” in the meat of the band where it’s cold enough

Snow growth looks solid, nice lift in the snow growth zone.. Should be a solid swath of .15-.35" qpf

made a thread to separate the Saturday and Sunday convo..

Seems all we can muster up this season are these coating to 2" storms. Higher elevations favored, should be a a few hour period of moderate snow.. Timing differences with the steadiest snow, GFS is a bit earlier, EURO a bit later.. Looks like a snowy Saturday morning for most, earlier the better for accumulation potential down to the shore..

Look at euro snow output through day 12 for some comedic relief

rev is that you?

Today 50-55 , tomorrow a few squalls

Actually several models and ensembles like your area .. We will see if it holds at 12z

HRRR is like 55-60 for the Boston Metro, around 55 for Kevin and Hartford metro

Maybe we can get lucky like the old days and pull of a Feb 7 2021 weenie band Sunday/Monday https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-7-2021 That storm was forecast to be a massive hit in the mid range, then had the rug pulled in the 48-72 hour range came back last second to still be 6-12"

6z update on Sunday/Monday threat .. GFS NW moderate hit for ENE, EURO ticked SE, AIFS NW - light to moderate hit ENE

Well after the fake -NAO tease for early Jan .. We all said Jan 15th period was possible but unlikely, the first real threats would show up Jan-18 on beyond .. It's still the case even though Jan 18 is still very low probs and next week looks boring for now..

Lastly all ensembles are ideal post that overrunning threat next weekend..

Large precip signal still on ensembles for next weekend as Scott said.. .Just watching ensembles for now, hopefully we get more hits showing up on ops as we get closer.. This period still could be snow/rain/ice for New England ..

Yup, NOT with GFS leading the way.. Wait til the real models show a hit .. EPS is about a 5-15% probability of plowable for Eastern New England, pretty low odds but still day 5 so time to trend.

Congrats Orlando by verification ? That’s actually one of the snowiest storms I’ve ever seen modeled, it has 65-75” around Pittsburgh 40-50” 10:1 from that one storm .. Huge swath of 15-30” probably 1,000 miles on a more serious note.. ensembles are all pointing to a high qpf overrunning event for this same period. So while this extreme mother of all snowstorms is highly unlikely , a significant overrunning type winter storm is being signaled by all ensembles for days 9 through 11, whether it’s rain/ ice / snow , or shreds we shall see..

I’d say ensembles show potential after the 20th. That could all easily be rain…. We will be flirting with the gradient.. pattern has gone exactly as expected by most so far this month, minus the no snow bad luck part