Sey-Mour Snow

GFS weatherbell not working?

Interior Fairfield county between Merritt and 84 is primed for 18-24"+

we earned this one! Been a long long time over here! Let's finish this off only 18 hours til go time.

Unreal snows for 48 hours straight here SWCT.

EPIC 00z runs continues with GFS

West of the River and south of 84 hasn't had a 15"+ storm in 8 years.

Don't agree, not for the areas that experience banding for several hours, snow growth is off the charts. Kuchera is off in areas that don't experience banding yes.

also a massive jump towards 12km nam, was more like rgem earlier.

Here is CT's run to get NAM'd !

Tweaks possible in AM, up in areas if trends continue, and down in mixing areas.

Yessir, we are a 25 mile shift NE from 16”+ . And most expect this to tic NE as they normally do last second. We look good in interior SWCT.

precip is also long gone by that time , it wraps up 6 or so hours earlier, here are the temps when heavy stuff is winding down.. surface is a bit warm yes, 925s and up plenty cold during steady precip, temps just off the deck don't warm until things shut off. I will be watching surface temp trends though.

crushed us

I see what you did there, ya I’d want to be further south than far NE Mass, south is best . ORH points SE

This forum is in need of a positive 7 paragraph long tip post to take some off the ledge.

Neither did we.

Ya got screwed in the southwest third of the state. Will end up with a half inch just 6 miles south of OXC, every piece of guidance had us 2-5”..

Yes, very. I have an iPhone. Posted this from my phone in a minute. EPS looks like 12z.

Weatherbell

Sell for north of 84, buying south of 84 after initial slug. We always get screwed down here with warmth coming in really quick, then washes away by 84.

From your boy Matt Noyes First, what is a "Norlun Instability Trough?" A trough is a weak disturbance in the atmosphere - in this case, near the surface - marked by lower surface barometric pressure that results from converging wind direction and speed. Surface convergence of air results in rising air (afterall, air converging at the surface must go either up or down, and clearly can't go into the ground), and rising air produces clouds and precipitation. Hence, troughs can focus locally heavier bands of precipitation. It was noted by operational forecasters Steve NOgueiRa and Weir LUNdstedt (Nor-Lun) that these troughs, when inverted (extending northwest from a surface low) and beneath a middle and upper level atmospheric cold pool, could result in very strong, localized bands of precipitation. On occasion, these narrow but intense bands of snow could produce in excess of one foot of snow, and largely were missed by computer guidance. Mr. Norgueira and Lundstedt both worked to find methods of forecasting these events, even when computer modeling missed them. Since their initial study in 1992, computer modeling has improved significantly, and these events often are projected in advance, though placement and intensity continues to be a challenge, especially in more complex setups.

A weather logo has to be cool somewhere in life , this might be the only place ..

ran out of your basement!

Might go above freezing wednesday for a bit , then its cold, before the next "event(s)"

I think we could see freezing snizzle after the initial thump which wouldn't hurt on accumulations .. seems like 1-3" is a good bet first thump here, then we will nowcast what happens after if anything.