I’d say ensembles show potential after the 20th. That could all easily be rain…. We will be flirting with the gradient.. pattern has gone exactly as expected by most so far this month, minus the no snow bad luck part
For the very little it’s worth bc the GFS/GEFS is on everyone’s shit list including mine.. GEFS have about 25% of its members that turn that wave into a snowstorm here Sunday PM/Monday AM
Only hope for widespread snow is a NW amplification trend on around MLK day for the next 7 days.. Guidance is still all over the place after that in terms of where the cold goes and where the gradient sets up .. There also seems to be an overrunning set up the end of next week in the 9-12 day range .. But again have to see where the gradient sets up
That 6z GFS sums up our luck the last several years.. 15 days of ridge out west trough in east, parade of shortwaves diving under us , nothing bites.. what a joke