Roger Smith

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z Sep 1st Given timing of Labor Day weekend, will contact regulars to remind.

Strong winds all over southern BC and sw Alberta on Friday late afternoon as frontal boundary generated storms. Cool air over PNW (55-60 F) clashed with warmer air n of front (85 F); low developed and tracked into Alberta overnight, now into the cool air here with a steady rain. Gusts estimated 60 mph for around half an hour, lucky not to lose trees or power locally, other locations not as fortunate.

Final scoring for August 2024 FORECASTER __________________DCA_NYC_BOS __ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ____ TOTAL Roger Smith _____________________74 _ 56 _ 58 __ 188 __ 92 _ 92 _ 86 __ 270 _ 458 __ 92 _ 94 _48 __ 234 ____692 Scotty Lightning ________________ 58 _ 50 _ 66 __ 174 __100 _100_ 98 __298 _ 472__ 66 _ 54 _ 78 __ 198 ____670 rainsucks ____ (-1%) ____________ 77*_55*_57*__ 189 __ 79*_93*_69*__241 _ 430 __ 81*_73*_44 __198 ____ 628 ____ Consensus ________________ 58 _ 48 _ 50 __ 156 __ 98 _ 92 _ 86 __ 276 _ 432 __82 _ 54 _ 52 __ 188 ____620 DonSutherland1 _________________ 68 _ 50 _ 56 __ 174 __ 96 _ 82 _ 60 __ 238 _ 412 __100_ 70 _ 30 __ 200 ____612 ____ Normal _____________________ 98 _ 80 _ 86 __ 264 __ 80 _ 60 _ 52 __ 192 _ 456 __46 _ 14 _88 __ 148 ____ 604 Tom _____________________________40 _ 24 _ 38 __ 102 __ 82 _ 96 _ 96 __ 274 _ 376__ 96 _ 52 _ 76 __ 224 ____ 600 wxallannj ________________________54 _ 38 _ 50 __ 142 __ 92 _ 96 _ 88 __ 276 _ 418 __82 _ 54 _ 34 __ 170 ____ 588 so_whats_happening ____________64 _ 48 _ 48 __ 160 __ 98 _ 92 _ 74 __ 264 _ 424 __82 _ 54 _ 24 __ 160 ____ 584 StormchaserChuck1 _____________70 _ 50 _ 62 __ 182 __ 82 _ 78 _ 74 __ 234 _ 416 __ 62 _ 58 _ 48 __ 168 ____ 584 RodneyS ________________________100 _ 76 _ 84 __ 260 __ 64 _ 58 _42 __ 164 _ 424 __ 72 _ 28 _ 58 __ 158 ____ 582 BKViking ________________________50 _ 24 _ 30 __ 104 __ 94 _ 90 _ 96 __ 280 _ 384 __70 _ 48 _ 68 __ 186 ____ 570 RJay ____________________________38 _ 20 _ 32 __ 090 __ 86 _100_ 98 __ 288 _ 378 __76 _ 44 _ 64 __ 184 ____ 562 hudsonvalley21 _________________34 _ 22 _ 36 __ 092 __ 72 _ 84 _ 86 __ 242 _ 334 __ 94_ 56 _ 60 __ 210 ____ 544 wxdude64 ______________________ 54 _ 38 _ 50 __ 142 __ 92 _ 66 _ 56 __ 214 _ 356 __ 36 _ 26 _ 52 __ 114 ____ 470 Persistence _ (July 2024) _______ 44 _ 38 _ 48 __ 130 __ 72 _ 90 _ 32 __ 194 _ 324 __ 58 _ 74 _ 34 __ 166 ____ 490 ==================================== Extreme forecast report DCA, NYC, BOS, SEA _ Coldest forecasts are all high scores. RodneyS takes three (DCA, NYC, BOS) and Scotty L takes one (SEA). Normal also wins for all except DCA, being closer to outcomes. DEN is a win for Don S (+2.7) and a loss for hudsonvalley21 (warmest +3.0). PHX is a win for Roger S (warmest +4.0) IAH is a win for RJay and Scotty L (+2.5) and a loss for hudsonvalley21 (+3.1). ORD, ATL no extreme forecast. (forecasts) FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA hudsonvalley21 _________________+3.2 _ +2.9 _ +2.5 __ +2.4 _ +2.8 _ +3.1 __ +3.0 _ +2.1 _ +1.4 RJay ____________________________+3.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.7 __ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 Tom ____________________________ +2.9 _ +2.8 _ +2.4 __ +1.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.2 __ +2.5 _ +1.9 _ +0.6 BKViking ________________________+2.4 _ +2.8 _ +2.8 __ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ +2.2 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________________+2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +0.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 __ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +2.7 wxdude64 ______________________ +2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +0.6 _ +0.3 _ +0.2 __ -0.5 _ +0.6 _ +1.8 Scotty Lightning _________________+2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +0.5 ____ Consensus ________________ +2.0 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 __ +1.1 __+1.6 _ +1.7___ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 so_whats_happening ____________ +1.7 _ +1.6 _ +1.9 __ +1.1 __+1.6 _ +1.1 ___ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +3.2 DonSutherland1 _________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.4 __ +2.7 _ +2.8 _ +2.9 StormchaserChuck1 ____________ +1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +0.1 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +0.8 _ +2.2 _ +2.0 Roger Smith ____________________ +1.2 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 ___ +2.3 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 rainsucks ____ (-1%) ____________ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___ 0.0 _ +1.7 _ +0.9 __ +1.8 _ +3.0 _ +2.2 ____ Normal ______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS ________________________ -0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.1 ___ -0.8 _ -0.1 _ -0.5 ___ +1.3 _ +0.7 _ +1.5 Persistence _ (July 2024) ______________+2.7 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 _____ -0.4 _ +1.5 _ -1.0 ______ +0.6 _ +5.6 _ +2.7 ====================================

Seasonal max contest _ scoring update ... new high for ORD (99 F) (a) Forecasts FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning __________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____96 __ 104 _ 118 ____ 100 _ 121 __ 92 wxdude64 ________________ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 101 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 104 _ 118 __ 98 Roger Smith _______________102 _ 100 _ 100 ____101 __ 101 _ 109 ____ 104 _ 119 __ 97 rainsucks __________________102 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 104 __ 102 _ 107 ____ 104 _ 120 __99 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 95 ___ 98 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 98 Rhino16 ____________________101 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 102 __ 102 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 115 __ 98 ___ Consensus ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 ____99 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 97 DonSutherland1 ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 96 ___ 97 _ 104 ____ 101 _ 118 __ 97 Tom _______________________ 101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 99 ___102 _ 106 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 96 RJay _______________________100 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 100 __ 101 _ 105 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 95 so_whats_happening ______100 __ 98 __100 ____ 97 ___ 99 _ 102 ______98 _ 119 __ 97 RodneyS ___________________99 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 96 ___ 97 _ 102 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 97 wxallannj __________________98 __ 98 __ 96 _____ 99 ___ 97 _ 102 _____101 _ 120 __ 95 __ max to date (Aug 27) __104 _ 95 __ 98 _____ 99 __ 100 __102 _____102 _ 118 _ 98 (b) Errors to date underlined-italic errors are subject to increase as values so far are above forecast. Sum of "accumulated non-reversible error" appears after error totals. Current ranks are now listed. rank _FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__ORD_ATL_IAH__DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL ___ Acc n-rev err 1 __ Tom _______________________ 3 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 0 __ 2 __4 ___ 3 __ 0 __ 2 _____17 ______(8) t2 __ DonSutherland1 ___________ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 3 __ 3 __ 2 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 _____18 ______(11) t2 __ so_whats_happening ______ 4 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 0 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 1 ____18 ______(12) t2 ______ Consensus ___________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 0 __ 1 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 18 ______(6) t4 __ RodneyS ___________________5 __ 4 __ 1 ____ 3 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 3 __ 0__ 1 ____20 ______(16) t4 __ hudsonvalley21 ___________ 3 __ 6 __ 1 ____ 4 __ 2 __ 1 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 0 _____20 ______(11) t4 __ RJay_______________________ 4 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 1 __ 1 __ 3 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 20 ______(9) t4 __ wxallannj___________________6 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 0 __ 3 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 2__ 3 _____ 20 ______(15) 8 __ wxdude64 ________________ 2 __ 7 __ 4 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 0 __0 _____ 22 _______(2) t9 __ Rhino16 ___________________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 3 __ 2 __ 4 ___ 2 __3 __ 0______ 23 _______(8) t9 __ Roger Smith ______________ 2 __ 5 __ 2 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 7 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 23 _______ (3) 11 __ rainsucks _________________ 2 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 5 __ 2 __ 5 ___ 2 __ 2 __1 ______ 25 _______ (2) 12 __ Scotty Lightning __________ 1 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 3 __ 4 __16 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 6 ____ 40 ______ (12) =================================== Scoring will be updated whenever new data require, and table will eventually be moved to Sep contest. (99 ORD Aug 27)

/Anomalies and projections ... ________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ (anom 1-17) ______________ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +0.6 __ -0.1 _ +2.6 _ +2.2 ____ +1.5 _ +5.3 _ +0.4 __ (p anom 1-31) _____________+0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.5 ____ +2.5 _ +4.0 __-1.0 __ Final anoms _______________ -0.1 _ -1.0 _ -0.7 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.4 ____ +2.7 _ +4.4 __-0.6* * SEA adjusted -0.8 to -0.6 for msg data, no scores were differently adjusted as lowest forecast is +0.5. Previous estimates were adjusted on 08-29.

"Rest of season" forecasts look like a typical full season forecast list. Our consensus (and expert consensus not a lot lower) now needs a very robust Sep-Oct to verify. Rest of season values can be seen in previous post above original forecast table. Count is 5/3/1.

At any location, you are more likely to see Perseid meteors after midnight because in the second half of the night, the earth is turning towards the oncoming meteor swarm. There is no real "peak" to Perseids, you can see a few every night from about August 10 to 15 -- there is a 33-year peak because the comet that blew apart to form this swarm left more debris in one part of the 33-year orbit of debris; previous peaks were around 1899, 1933, 1966 and 1999, so it's a few years away ... most Perseids will originate in northeast quadrant of sky and track towards southwest. The constellation Perseus is in that part of sky in August, hence name Perseids.

Similar contests elsewhere have scoring formats like that, best 10 of 12 in one case, and a points structure that includes average score as well as total score (but only applies to entrants who miss fewer than three of twelve) in another. It often ends up being a very similar top ten to raw score alone, but one or even two bad scores won't sink your chances. Anyway, I inherited an all-12 total score format when I took over contest scoring around 2012. So we've never had a discussion of it, perhaps some people did before I came along. But personally I like the total score of all contests idea, even though I a pretty certain I would be in a better rank if we went best 10 or even 11 out of 12. As a pro forecaster, you know you are judged (or recalled) by the worst of your forecasts, and that's a reality of the forecast business (I am not technically a pro forecaster although people follow my forecasts a lot in Ireland and UK). For BKV who could end up entering 11/12, we could add a reasonable low score but I think the pro-rated adjustment (adding one average score in that case) is a good way to judge "real" ranking, and as there's no awards or prizes involved, that's probably good enough.

Downtown Toronto's July rainfall (199.0 mm or 7.87") was actually second to 1841 just after station opened in 1840, it was wettest at YYZ but records only go back to 1938.

Total rain at Montreal's downtown airport (also known as Dorval) on Friday was 154 mm (6.06"). Granby located closer to n VT border reported 110.4 mm 4.34". Some strong wind gusts near 45 also reported.

Apparently locations in southern Quebec are going to record all-time record daily rainfalls in the 5-7 inch range by end of day. I will try to get some actual totals on Saturday a.m. -- Audrey (1957) a Gulf 'cane June 28-29 1957 set some of records in question.

Yesterday avoided tying low max of 69 (1903) at NYC by rising to 70 by 11:59 pm.

Watch it whizz out to sea.

Today's record low max for NYC is 69 (1903). Record low min of 54 was on same date. It is relatively rare for both records to occur together, only two other August dates have the double record (2nd 1875 and 11th 1962). In most cases, after a record low min is set, there is enough sunshine to boost temps to around 72-75 F in a cool air mass (high 60s by later Aug), and almost all record low maxima occur on cloudy days allowing temps to remain below 70F (or low 60s by later Aug). Aug 19 is only date with a 70F low max (rest are in range of 59 to 69), the monthly extreme is 59F from 21st, 2007, tying 31st 1911. These cloudy, cool days are rarely followed by clearing and a record low min, that only occurred once (low max 9th 1879, low min 10th 1879). Record high max and min occur more frequently together, August has nine such occurrences, albeit some involve tied years on one or both elements. Another six pairs involve a record high max followed by a record high min the next day, three of those were in the group of nine concurrent pairs (i.e., the mins were a second consecutive record high min). When the record high max is not accompanied by a record low min, the value is often within 2-4 F of the record. As to record rainfalls being concurrent with record temperatures of either variety, in August the only example is that 3.76" rain was a daily record on Aug 31, 1911 (low max 59F).

EDIT Sep 27 for Helene, and H Isaac and TS Joyce EDIT Oct 3 for Kirk and Leslie Count is now (set at) 12/8/3 (if Leslie becomes a 'cane, it is 12/7/3 now) ... "rest of season" forecasts are based on that probability. ... your forecasts were already posted in an earlier table (and are repeated below table), this will be a "forecast of rest of season" for all entrants. NOTE: Post no longer being edited, a later post is being edited ... <<< DERIVED FORECASTS for REST of 2024 SEASON >>> FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________storms _ hurr _ major TomCosgrave (IE-3) ________________________ 27 ____ 18 _____ 4 CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _____________________ 21 _____ 7 _____ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) karmac (7) __________________________________ 21 _____ 6 _____ 4 WYorksWeather (NW-5) _____________________20 _____ 9 _____ 5 LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ___________________ 20 _____ 4 _____ 1 nvck (8) _____________________________________ 17 _____ 7 _____ 2 Tezeta (16) __________________________________ 17 _____ 5 _____ 4 Jtm12180 (33) _______________________________ 16 _____ 8 _____ 4 WxWatcher007 (1) __________________________ 16 _____ 5 _____ 3 cnimbus (3) _________________________________ 15 _____ 9 _____ 3 Yanksfan (9) _________________________________15 _____ 9 _____ 2 ineedsnow (32) ______________________________15 _____ 6 _____ 5 metalicwx367 (34) __________________________ 14 _____ 7 _____ 4 LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ______________________ 14 _____ 5 _____ 3 SnowLover22 (43) __________________________ 14 _____ 5 _____ 3 Normandy (14) ______________________________ 13 _____ 9 _____ 7 Brian5671 (22) ______________________________ 13 _____ 8______ 0 Diggiebot (11) _______________________________ 13 _____ 6 _____ 5 Matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 13 _____ 4 _____ 4 ncforecaster89 (38) _________________________13 _____ 4 _____ 3 CHSVol (5) __________________________________ 13 _____ 4 _____ 2 JonClaw (23) ________________________________13 _____ 4 _____ 2 Big Jims Videos (21) ________________________ 13 _____ 4 _____ 1 wxdude64 (late) ____________________________ 13 _____ 0 _____ 2 (will rank, ineligible to win) SnowenOutThere (39) _______________________12 _____ 6 _____ 3 ImleahBradley (19) __________________________ 12 _____ 6 _____ 1 IntenseWind002 (24) ________________________12 _____ 5 _____ 2 Stebo (17) ___________________________________ 12 _____ 4 _____ 2 Eyewall (late) ________________________________ 12 _____ 4 _____ 2 (will rank, ineligible to win) DOCARCH (IE-2) ____________________________ 12 _____ 3 _____ 3 LakeNormanStormin (41) ____________________ 12 _____ 3 _____ 2 Roger Smith (20) ____________________________ 12 _____ 3 _____ 1 ___ Contest consensus (Median) ___________ 12 _____ 4 _____ 2 StormchaserChuck1 (4) ______________________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 3 GeorgeBM (37) _______________________________11 _____ 5 _____ 3 FPizz (18) ____________________________________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 1 ___ Expert consensus ________________________ 11 _____ 3 _____ 2 Hotair (28) ___________________________________ 11 _____ 3 _____ 1 Southmdwatcher (42) ________________________ 10 _____ 7 _____ 5 Snowlover2 (15) ______________________________ 10 _____ 6 _____ 3 cardinalland (26) _____________________________ 10 _____ 4 _____ 3 Yoda (30) _____________________________________10______ 4 _____ 2 ___ UKMO forecast ___________________________ 10 _____ 4 _____ 1 Seminole (25) ________________________________ 10 _____ 3 _____ 0 Metwatch (NW-1) ____________________________ 10 _____ 2 _____ 1 ldub23 (40) ___________________________________ 9 _____ 3 _____ 2 ___ NOAA median forecast ____________________ 9_____ 2.5 __ 2.5 Gawx (35) _____________________________________ 9 _____ 2 _____ 2 Pauldry (IE-1) __________________________________ 9 _____ 0 _____ 1 Rhino16 (2) ____________________________________ 8______ 4 _____ 2 Torch Tiger (13) _______________________________ 8 ______ 3 _____ 3 vpBob (27) ____________________________________ 8 ______ 1 _____ 2 jlauderdal (36) _________________________________ 7______ 1 _____ 2 dancerwithwings (NW-2) ______________________ 7______ 0 _____ 0 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) _____________________ 6 ______3 _____ 2 Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) __________________ 6 ______2 _____ 1 wkd (29) ________________________________________3 _____ 1 _____ 1 tae laidir (IE-4) _________________________________ 3 _____ 1 _____ 1 Retrobuc (12) ___________________________________ 1 ______ 0 ____(-1) Consensus is median of on-time forecasts, late forecasts are not used. Sep _ Now as Isaac reached h'cane, wxdude64 is first contest entrant to reach a position where numbers are not attainable (more majors than 'canes in this case). A number of others now have equal numbers of canes and majors required to complete forecast. Oct _ A few additional forecasts are now out of sequence, or need Leslie to reach major status. ============================== (original forecasts) TomCosgrave (IE-3) ________________________ 39 _____ 26 ______ 7 CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _____________________ 33 _____ 15 ______ 8 (will rank, ineligible to win) karmac (7) __________________________________ 33 _____ 14 ______ 7 WYorksWeather (NW-5) _____________________32 _____ 17 ______ 8 LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ___________________ 32 _____ 12 ______ 4 nvck (8) _____________________________________ 29 _____ 15 ______ 5 Tezeta (16) __________________________________ 29 _____ 13 ______ 7 Jtm12180 (33) _______________________________28 _____ 16 ______ 7 WxWatcher007 (1) __________________________ 28 _____ 13 ______ 6 cnimbus (3) _________________________________ 27 _____ 17 ______ 6 Yanksfan (9) _________________________________27 _____ 17 ______ 5 ineedsnow (32) ______________________________27 _____ 14 ______ 8 metalicwx367 (34) __________________________ 26 _____ 15 ______ 7 LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ______________________26 _____ 13 ______ 6 SnowLover22 (43) __________________________ 26 _____ 13 ______ 6 Normandy (14) ______________________________ 25 _____ 17 _____ 10 Brian5671 (22) ______________________________ 25 _____ 16 ______ 3 Diggiebot (11) _______________________________ 25 _____ 14 ______ 8 Matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 7 ncforecaster89 (38) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 6 CHSVol (5) __________________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 5 JonClaw (23) ________________________________25 _____ 12 ______ 5 Big Jims Videos (21) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 4 wxdude64 (late) ____________________________ 25 ______ 8 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) SnowenOutThere (39) _______________________24 _____ 14 ______ 6 ImleahBradley (19) __________________________ 24 _____ 14 ______ 4 IntenseWind002 (24) ________________________24 _____ 13 ______ 5 Stebo (17) ___________________________________ 24 _____ 12 ______ 5 Eyewall (late) ________________________________24 _____ 12 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) DOCARCH (IE-2) ____________________________ 24 _____ 11 ______ 6 LakeNormanStormin (41) ____________________24 _____ 11 ______ 5 Roger Smith (20) ____________________________24 _____ 11 ______ 4 ___ Contest consensus (Median) __________ 24 _____ 12 _____ 5 StormchaserChuck1 (4) _____________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6 GeorgeBM (37) ______________________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6 FPizz (18) ___________________________________ 23 _____ 13 ______ 4 ___ Expert consensus _______________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 5 Hotair (28) __________________________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 4 Southmdwatcher (42) _______________________22 _____ 15 ______ 8 Snowlover2 (15) _____________________________22 _____ 14 ______ 6 cardinalland (26) ____________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 6 Yoda (30) ____________________________________22 _____ 12 ______ 5 ___ UKMO forecast __________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 4 Seminole (25) _______________________________ 22 _____ 11 ______ 3 Metwatch (NW-1) ___________________________ 22 _____ 10 ______ 4 ldub23 (40) __________________________________21 _____ 11 ______ 5 ___ NOAA median forecast __________________ 21 _____ 10.5 ___ 5.5 Gawx (35) ___________________________________21 _____ 10 ______ 5 Pauldry (IE-1) ________________________________21 ______ 8 ______ 4 Rhino16 (2) __________________________________20 _____ 12 ______ 5 Torch Tiger (13) _____________________________20 _____ 11 ______ 6 vpBob (27) __________________________________20 ______ 9 ______ 5 jlauderdal (36) ______________________________ 19 ______ 9 ______ 5 dancerwithwings (NW-2) ____________________19 ______ 8 ______ 3 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ___________________18 _____ 11 ______ 5 Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) _______________ 18 _____ 10 ______ 4 wkd (29) _____________________________________15 ______ 9 ______ 4 tae laidir (IE-4) ______________________________ 15 ______ 9 ______ 4 Retrobuc (12) ________________________________ 13 ______ 8 ______ 2 -------------------------- (previous notes) If season is 50% done and stays on current intensity, end result is 12 8 2 Our consensus says season is 1/4 done. All forecasts (were) still "valid" (do not involve unattainable values e.g. 9 _ 3 _ 4) (since updated) Table is updated for every new storm once its full development is confirmed.

Flood flooding is the worst kind. (guess they meant stream flooding?)

I would say 3-6 in rains likely later today in a corridor from Allentown PA to about Raritan Bay, 2-4 in would be a general result in metro NYC and LI, CT. Later in week only looks to be 1-2 in potential but local max of 3" possible.

SACRuS, top ten NYC Aug rainfalls 18.95 _ 2011 _ 01 12.36 _ 1990 _ 02 10.86 _ 1955 _ 03 10.32 _ 2021 _ 04 9.83 _ 1927 _ 05 9.56 _ 1873 _ 06 9.37 _ 1919 _ 07 9.28 _ 1911 _ 08 9.08 _ 1942 _ 09 8.97 _ 1875 _ 10 ============================= Also, daily records for NYC follow ... <<<< AUGUST >>>> Date __ high max __ high min ___ low max _ low min _____ 24h rain ___ 48h rain (ending date) Aug 01 __100 1933 ___ 82 1917 _______ 68 1923 ____ 59 1895, 1964 ___ 2.85 1878 ___ 3.99 1889 (2.29+1.70) Aug 02 __100 1955 ___ 83 2006 _______ 67 1875 ____57 1875 __________ 2.49 1973 ___ 2.52 1973 Aug 03 __ 97 2005 ___ 78 1975,2006 __ 66 1921 ___ 55 1886, 1927 ____2.71 1946 ___ 3.11 1885 (0.67+2.44) Aug 04 __100 1944 ___ 78 1908,2005 _ 69 1909 ____56 1886 (69 3rd) __ 3.25 1915 __ 3.66 1915 Aug 05 __101 1944 ___ 81 1908 _______ 68 1903 _____56 1886,1912,51 __ 1.44 1884 ___ 3.05 1884 Aug 06 __ 97 1931,55__80 1906,08,18__ 64 1915 ____56 1869 (67) _____ 3.31 1878 ___ 3.31 1878* Aug 07 __104 1918 ___ 82 1918 _______ 64 1975_____57 1994 (75 6th) __ 2.18 1921 ___ 3.65 1990 (2.30+1.35) ^ Aug 08 __ 99 2001 ___ 80 1980 _______ 69 1903 ___ 54 1903 __________ 2.60 1927 ___ 2.60 1927*__ 2.50 2007 (1d) Aug 09 __103 2001 ___ 82 1896,2001 _ 68 1879 ____57 1919, 89 _______4.10 1942 ___ 4.83 1976 (0.93+3.90) Aug 10 __ 98 1891,1949_ 80 1896 ______ 60 1962 ___ 55 1879 (73) ______4.64 1990 ___ 4.70 1990 __ 2.51 2006 (1d) Aug 11 __102 1944 ___ 81 1891,96 ____ 68 1931,33,62_ 56 1962 _________ 2.90 2018 ___ 6.14 1990 __ 2.79 1983 (1d) Aug 12 __ 97 1944 ___ 80 1988 _______ 64 1979 ___ 55 1889 (73) _____ 3.62 1955 ___ 4.90 1989 (1.90+3.00)^ Aug 13 __ 99 2005 ___ 82 1908 ______68 1873,1934_ 55 1930 (73 12th) _2.70 1955 __ 6.32 1955 __ 4.01 1926 (2d)^ Aug 14 __ 99 1988 ___ 84 1908 ______66 1873,1919_ 54 1964 (77) _____5.81 2011 ___ 5.81 2011*_ 3.10" 2005 (1d) Aug 15 __ 97 1988 ___ 81 1988 _______ 66 1992 ____ 54 1964 (80) _____ 1.52 1911 ___ 6.37 2011 Aug 16 __ 96 1944 ___ 79 1938 _______ 65 1883 ___ 55 1880 (73) ______4.80 1909 ___ 4.83 1909 Aug 17 __ 95 1944,2015_ 78 1978,2015 _ 65 1909 ____56 1881^ 1979 ____ 2.86 1974 ___ 5.15 1909 Aug 18 __ 94 1913,87,2002_78 2002______ 62 1874 ___ 55 1915 (73) ______3.95 1879 ___ 4.59 1879 Aug 19 __ 94 1914,66,2002_ 77 1906,2015 _70 1881,1946_ 55 1924 (73 18th) _2.53 1991 _ 3.95 1879** Aug 20 __ 97 1955 ___ 77 1906,83,2015_ 68 1990,2000_ 55 1949 (76) ____4.80 1873 __ 4.89 1873 _ 3.63 1904 (1d). Aug 21 __ 96 1955 ___ 78 1906 _______ 59 2007 ____ 53 1922 (66 22nd) _4.45 2021^___4.84 1873 Aug 22 __ 95 1916 ___ 78 1906 _______ 65 2007 ____ 52 1895 (71) _____ 2.67 2021^___ 7.12 2021 _ 4.32 1888 (2d) Aug 23 __ 92 1916 ___ 77 1906 _______ 63 1930 ____ 51 1923 (72) _____ 3.03 1930 ___ 3.74 2021 3.29 1933 (1.06+2.23) 5.51" 3d (2.22 21st) Aug 24 __ 94 1972 ___ 76 1891 ______ 64 1937,45 __ 52 1890 (65) _____ 3.61 1893 ___ 3.94 1893 __ 2.81 1891 (1.91+0.90) Aug 25 __ 95 1948 ___ 76 1961,98 ___ 64 1873 _____ 52 1940 (69) _____ 1.86 1982 ___ 3.61 1893** Aug 26 __103 1948 ___ 78 1948,2021__ 61 1940 _____ 53 1887 (67) ____ 3.24 1908 ___ 4.13 1941 (1.83+2.30) Aug 27 __101 1948 ___ 79 1948 _______ 62 1927 ____ 50 1885 (65) _____ 4.16 1971 ___ 4.16 1971*__ 2.88 2011 (1d) Aug 28 __100 1948 ___ 79 2018 _______ 60 1940 ____ 50 1885 (68) ____ 3.99 2011 ___ 6.87 2011 __ 2.79 1983 (1d) ^^ Aug 29 __ 99 1953 ___ 81 2018 _______ 63 1903 ____ 50 1965,82,86 ___ 2.68 2002 ___ 3.99 2011**_ 2.85 1983 (2d) Aug 30 __ 98 1953,73 _ 78 1973,2018 __ 62 1911 ____ 50 1965 (70) _____ 2.18 2008 ___ 2.68 2002**_ 2.37 1872 (2d) Aug 31 __100 1953____ 78 1953 _______ 59 1911 _____ 50 1976 (72,74) ___ 3.76 1911 ___ 4.61 1911 -- - - - - - - - - - - - - -- ^ 6th-7th 2.77" 1978 (1.78+0.99) .. 1878 no additional rain 7th. ^ 12th _ _ 3.34"R 1926 (1d). 4.01" 12th-13th. ^ 17th max for 1881 was 67, for 1979 68 next day ^ 21st rainfall prev record 4.19" 1888 (broken 2021) ^ 22nd rainfall prev record 1.85" 1994 (broken 2021) also prev 2d rain 4.32" 1888 ^^ 27th-28th 2d rain 1971 5.96 (4.16+1.80) ________________________________________________________________

You're still in second, wxallannj did widen the gap, the rest of us are going to have a great contest now to end, I would say.

Table of forecasts August 2024 FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA hudsonvalley21 _________________+3.2 _ +2.9 _ +2.5 __ +2.4 _ +2.8 _ +3.1 __ +3.0 _ +2.1 _ +1.4 RJay ____________________________+3.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.7 __ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 Tom ____________________________ +2.9 _ +2.8 _ +2.4 __ +1.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.2 __ +2.5 _ +1.9 _ +0.6 BKViking ________________________+2.4 _ +2.8 _ +2.8 __ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ +2.2 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________________+2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +0.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 __ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +2.7 wxdude64 ______________________ +2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +0.6 _ +0.3 _ +0.2 __ -0.5 _ +0.6 _ +1.8 Scotty Lightning _________________+2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +0.5 ____ Consensus ________________ +2.0 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 __ +1.1 __+1.6 _ +1.7___ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 so_whats_happening ____________ +1.7 _ +1.6 _ +1.9 __ +1.1 __+1.6 _ +1.1 ___ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +3.2 DonSutherland1 _________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.4 __ +2.7 _ +2.8 _ +2.9 StormchaserChuck1 ____________ +1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +0.1 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +0.8 _ +2.2 _ +2.0 Roger Smith ____________________ +1.2 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 ___ +2.3 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 rainsucks ____ (-1%) ____________ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___ 0.0 _ +1.7 _ +0.9 __ +1.8 _ +3.0 _ +2.2 ____ Normal ______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS ________________________ -0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.1 ___ -0.8 _ -0.1 _ -0.5 ___ +1.3 _ +0.7 _ +1.5 Persistence _ (July 2024) ______________+2.7 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 _____ -0.4 _ +1.5 _ -1.0 ______ +0.6 _ +5.6 _ +2.7 ==================================== Color coding for warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is coldest for NYC, BOS, PHX, and SEA.

Late penalties are fairly lenient now in contest, apologies to BKViking as I was very late getting to table of forecasts in July and did not realize until too late no entry was received, I probably would send a request if I was not so late on task. Anyway, take pro-rated scores as better indication of real contest results, if you don't enter all.

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-July 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> wxallannj _______________ 532 _514 _530 __1576 __ 426 _532 _438 __1396 _2972 __440 _504 _566 _1510 ____ 4482 ___ Consensus _________504 _508 _530 __1542 __ 412_498 _446 __ 1356 _2898 __378 _482 _496__1356____4254 rainsucks _______________ 586 _582 _498__1666 __ 383 _466 _428 __1277 _ 2943 __328 _440 _434 _1202____ 4145 DonSutherland1 ________ 492 _536 _550 __1578 __ 420 _446 _404 __1270 _ 2848 __428 _428 _430 __1286____ 4134 so_whats_happening ___ 478 _490 _524 __1492 __ 411 _462 _404 __1277 _ 2769 __ 414 _ 416 _512 __1342 ____ 4111 RJay ____________________540 _537 _478 __1555 __ 404 _475 _372 __ 1251 _ 2806 __364 _475 _443 __1282____ 4088 Scotty Lightning ________489 _435 _455 __1379 __ 290 _519 _475 __1284 _ 2663 __ 389 _433 _507 __1329 ____ 3992 hudsonvalley21 _________470 _434 _456 __1360 __ 398 _490 _460 __1348 _2708 __388 _408 _446 __1242____ 3950 Roger Smith ____________ 440 _428 _344 __1212 __ 440 _539 _408 __1387 _2599 __364 _502 _420 __1286 ____ 3885 Tom ____________________ 460 _446 _472 __1378 __ 332 _456 _410 __1198 _2576 __ 340 _452 _492 __1284 ____ 3860 RodneyS _______________ 324 _444 _474 __1242 __ 289 _ 378 _466 __1133 _ 2375 __470 _362 _532 __1364____ 3739 wxdude64 ______________ 319 _359 _453 __1131 __ 350 _343 _403 __1096 _ 2227 __ 421 _417 _491 __ 1329 ____ 3556 BKViking (6/7) __________436 _432 _450 __1318 __ 291 _389 _333 __1013 _ 2331 __ 316 _ 431 _405 __ 1152 ____ 3483 (4064) --------------------- Persistence _____________ 538 _496 _524 __1558 __254 _456 _402 __ 1112 _2670 _ 078 _366 _446 __ 890 ____ 3560 Normal __________________ 270 _272 _368 __ 910 __ 246 _364 _352 __962 _1872 __ 352 _374 _538 __1264 ____ 3136 ------------------ Stormchaser Chuck (5/7)_256 _300 _320 __876 __252 _242 _240 __734 __1610___ 190 _300 _300 __ 790 ____ 2400 (3360) Rhino16 (4/7) ____________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ____ 2154 (3770) George BM (1/7) ___________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 __ 42 __ 160 __ 442 ___ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 _______ 590 (4130) pro-rated scores for entrants above can be better compared to field and Normal. Persistence stayed well above Normal but back near last in forecaster group after a relatively poor July. ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________3*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 ______ 1 _May ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 _____ 0 rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 1^ ___ 2 ____ 3* ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2^____ 0 ______ 0 so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ____1 ______ 1 _ Mar Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2^ ___1* ____2 _____ 2 _Apr,Jul Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 2**__0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 Normal __________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2^____0 ______0 Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 1 _ Jun Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2**__0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 0 (George BM) _____________0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 July NYC five tied, added to table ^ ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. RodneyS also DEN in July EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 35 qualified (28 for warmest, 7 for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1. * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul __ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 __8-2 ___ 8.0 - 1.5 Roger Smith __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0__6-2 ___ 4.5 - 2 Rhino16 ______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0 Scotty Lightning _____________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-0 ___ 4.5 - 0 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 __ 4-0 ___3.0 - 0 wxallannj _____________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0__ 5-1 ___ 3.5 - 1 RodneyS _____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 ___ 3-0 ___ 3.0 - 0 wxdude64 ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 ___ 3-0 ___ 3.0 - 0 DonSutherland1 ______________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 ___ 2-0 ___ 2.0 - 0 Stormchaser Chuck __________0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 2-2 ___ 1.5 - 2.0 ___ Normal ___________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 ___ 2-2 RJay _________________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-2 BKViking _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-1 Tom, swh ______________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-0

+1.2 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 _ +2.3 _ +4.0 _ +2.0

Just a reminder for regular entrants, forecast contest is open and deadline is Wed nite.

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z August 1st