Roger Smith

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-July 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>> A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL RodneyS ________________ 465 _554 _495__1514 __444 _484 _602__1530__3044__495 _472 _452__1419___4463 DonSutherland.1 __________445 _580 _423 __1448 __410 _444 _596 __1450 __ 2898 __ 451 _518_ 448__1417___4315 ___ Consensus ___________507_ 594 _486 __1587__424 _440 _568 __1432 __ 3019 __ 411 _464 _402 __1277 ___4296 wxdude64 _______________481 _559 _457 __1497 __477_394 _551 __1422 __ 2919 __ 436 _451 _399 __1286____4205 wxallannj ________________500 _514 _512 __1526 __362 _488 _552 __1402 __2928 __ 366 _466 _392 __1224 ____4152 hudsonvalley21 ___________445 _608 _506__1559 __386 _472 _562 __1420 __2979 __ 307 _470 _378 __1165 ____4144 Roger Smith _____________ 510 _530 _468 __1508 __382 _382 _512 __1276 __2784 __ 487 _406 _390 __1283 ____4067 BKViking ________________ 507 _588 _488 __1583__396 _396 _519 __1311 __2894 __ 344 _414 _375 __1133 ____4027 Scotty Lightning ___________445 _534 _475 __1454 __374 _450 _532 __1356 __2810 __ 300 _404 _344 __1048 ____3858 Tom ____________________401 _523 _405 __1329 __ 442 _332 _552 __1326 __2655 __333 _448 _375 __1156 ____3811 ___ Normal ______________ 342 _546 _430 __1318 __412 _322 _560 __1294 __2602 __ 299 _479 _301__1079 ____3691 Stebo (4/7) ______________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ____2225 RJay (4/7) _______________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ____2083 tplbge (1/7) ______________ 90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___72 __ 88 __32 __ 192 ____684 smerby (1/7) ______________94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___432 ___50 __ 82 __ 96 __ 228 ____660 Jakkelwx (1/7) ____________ 92 __ 68 __ 30 __ 190 __ 50 __ 82 __ 68 __ 200 ___390___ 80 __ 90 __ 88 __ 258 ____648 _______________________________________________________________________ Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine). _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. _ July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also ___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher). FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ___1 ___1 ___ 3___ 2 ___ 2 ___1 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___0 ___1*___2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN wxallannj _______________1 ___2 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___3 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN Roger Smith ____________ 4 ___0 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 2 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JUL BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1*___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lighning __________1 ___0 ___2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ___________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1* ___ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 smerby _________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 jakkelwx ________________0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts STANDINGS to date in 2019 Roger Smith _________12-3 RodneyS ____________ 9-4 DonSutherland1 ______ 7-0 wxallannj ____________6-2 Scotty Lightning ______ 4-0 Normal __________ 3-1 Stebo ______________ 3-1 wxdude64 ___________ 3-0 hudsonvalley21 _______3-0 RJay ________________1-0 Tom ________________1-1 tplbge ______________ 1-0 Jakkelwx ____________ 1-0 BKViking ____________ 1-0* *retained if Jakkelwx plays fewer than three. ______________________________________________________________________________

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA On time deadline for entries is 06z Thursday August 1st. Good luck !!

Final scoring for July 2019 _ fBOS scored by rank order (max score 60) with lowest three scores higher for raw scores as indicated by *. FORECASTER _______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west ___ TOTAL (all nine) Roger Smith ________________98 _ 74 _ 60__ 232 __ 68_ 80 _ 90 __ 238__470__60 _ 84 _ 72 __ 216_____ 686 hudsonvalley21 ______________88 _ 78_ 42 __ 208 __ 52 _ 88 _ 96 __ 236__444__ 66 _ 80 _ 84 __ 230 _____ 674 BKViking ___________________ 92 _ 76 _ 42 __ 210 __ 48 _ 82 _ 92 __ 222__432__ 66 _ 86 _ 88 __ 240 _____ 672 wxallannj __________________ 98_ 78 _ 54 __ 230 __ 46 _ 92 _ 76 __ 214__444__ 48 _ 86 _ 92 __ 226 _____ 670 smerby ____________________ 94 _ 78_ 48 __ 220 __ 22 _ 90 _100__212__432__ 50 _ 82 _ 96 __ 228 _____ 660 ___ Consensus ______________88 _ 68 _ 30 __ 186 __ 46 _ 82 _100__ 228__414__ 62 _ 82 _ 96 __ 240 _____ 654 Jakkelwx ___________________ 92 _ 68 _ 30 __ 190 __ 50 _ 82 _ 68 __ 200__390__ 80_ 90_ 88 __ 258 _____ 648 RodneyS ___________________ 88 _ 62 _ 17*__ 167 __ 42 _ 82 _ 96 __ 220__387__ 58 _ 70_100__ 228 _____ 615 wxdude64 __________________86 _ 64 _ 24 __ 174 __ 34 _ 76 _ 98 __ 208__382__ 56 _ 76 _ 98 __ 230 _____ 612 DonSutherland1 _____________ 78 _ 62 _ 09*__ 149 __ 58 _ 80 _ 96 __ 234__383__ 62 _ 68 _ 94 __ 224 _____ 607 Scotty Lightning _____________ 74 _ 58 _ 07*__ 139 __ 38 _ 90 _ 80 __ 208__347__ 90 _ 82 _ 84 __ 256 _____ 603 ____ Tom __________________ 78 _ 56 _ 24 __ 158 __ 34 _ 90 _ 88 __ 212__370__ 80 _ 84 _ 96 __ 260 _ 630 Tom _______ (-5%) __________74 _ 53 _ 23 __ 150 __ 32 _ 86 _ 84 __ 202__352__ 76 _ 80 _ 91 __ 247 _____ 599 ___ Normal ________________ 54 _ 38 _ 00 __ 092 __ 38 _ 60 _ 90 __ 188__280__ 70 _ 62 _ 64 __ 196 _____ 476 ____________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts Seven of nine locations qualify with highest forecast(s) also high scores. DCA, BOS and ORD are wins for Roger Smith. Wxallannj shares DCA. NYC is a win for wxallannj, hudsonvalley21 and smerby. ATL is a win for wxallannj. DEN is a win for Scotty Lightning. PHX is a win for jakkelwx, if they enter fewer than three this year, BKViking and wxallannj will add wins (regular participants rule).

98 at BWI yesterday.

Update on anomaly tracker and forecasts, with seasonal MAX values shown. Will link those to contest later this month. ________________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _ 7th ____ (anom) _______ +2.8 _+3.7 _+6.1 __ +4.5 _+3.9 __0.0 ___ --0.3 _+0.4 __0.0 14th _____(anom) _______ +1.4 _+3.0 _+5.5 __ +3.9 _+3.6 _+1.3 ___ +0.4 _+1.5 _+1.4 21st _____ (anom) _______ +2.9 _+3.6 _+6.3 __ +4.8 _+3.4 _+1.5 ___ +1.4 _+2.1 _+1.4 28th _____ (p28d) _______ +2.0 _+2.8 _+4.7 __ +3.8 _+2.3 _+0.4 ___ +1.4 _+2.2 _+1.8 _ 8th ____ (p14d) ________+0.4 _+2.5 _+4.0 __ +2.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 ____ 0.0 _+0.5 _+0.2 15th _____ (p21d) ________+2.7 _+3.7 _+7.0 __ +5.0 _+4.0 _+1.5 ___ +1.5 _+2.3 _+1.0 22nd _____ (p28d) _______ +1.8 _+2.2 _+4.5 __ +4.0 _+2.1 _+0.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.3 _+2.2 _ 8th ____ (p24d) ________+1.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+0.7 _+0.4 15th _____ (p31d) ________+1.5 _+2.0 _+4.0 __ +3.0 _+2.3 _+0.5 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 22nd _____ (p31d) _______ +2.2 _+2.0 _+4.0 __ +3.5 _+1.6 _+0.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.4 _+1.9 29th _____ (p31d) _______ +2.2 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +3.5 _+2.1 _+0.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.9 _+1.9 1 Aug __ final anomalies __ +2.3 _+3.1 _+5.3 __ +3.1 _+2.0 _+0.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.9 _+1.8 MAX to date ______________ 99 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 95 __ 95 __ 97 _____101 __ 115 __ 95 _____________________________________ 15th _ Predictions for past week assessed as medium with average error (compare red lines) 1.03 deg. Next week looking hot in most areas except SEA. The end of month projections carry low confidence as GFS introduces considerably cooler regime to central and eastern US and have estimated -1 anomalies for 22nd-31st for eastern locations, continued heat in west (warmer end of month for SEA). Will post some preliminary scoring if these late cooling trends appear to be holding after a few more days. Otherwise the actuals could end up well above most forecasts. ... edit 16th, PHX new max of 114 on 15th. 17th _ PHX edged up to 115, NYC tied previous max of 91, on 16th. 18th _ NYC moved up to 93 on 17th. DEN prelim high of 99 on 18th. 19th _ DEN moved up to 101 today. 20th _ DCA, NYC, BOS and ORD all moved up in seasonal max today. 21st _ DCA and BOS moved up again today. 22nd _ The previous week forecast had the highest accuracy rating I can recall, average error only 0.28 deg F. The coming week looks a bit cooler than average in many of the locations which will bring the anomalies down towards the high end of our forecast range. It seems that IAH will come in near the low end, so all nine stations could be in play for an extreme forecast. Scoring will be adjusted from the values posted yesterday as some provisionals are now well above high forecast, notably BOS and ORD. 29th _ Some problems with the data base at NWS for BOS, ORD and DEN, could not update their anomalies this morning, but now updated. Have adjusted NYC, ATL and PHX provisionals. All appear to be headed higher than high forecast now so this generally reduces all scores by the same amount (except that Tom with late penalties drops less). BOS may be headed for max-60 scoring (rank ordered, at the moment there is a raw 60, if the max slips below that, we go to best of rank order scoring or raw scores, whichever higher -- with eleven forecasts, this will be 60, 54, 48, 42, 36, 30, 24, 18, 12, 6, 0 but looks like lower ones would be raw scores in that case so higher than the progression). This could also happen at ORD. 1st __ Final anomalies posted, scoring updated by noon EDT.

Have the feeling that late July and August will be hotter than we've seen so far.

June had no activity so the scoring (out of four possible points) looks like this: 4 pts (0,0,0 forecasts) __ Julian Colton, Stormlover74, Cyclonic Fury 3.5 pts (1,0,0 forecasts) _ all others except below 3.0 pts (1,1,0 forecast) __ Roger Smith 2.5 pts (2,1,0 forecast) __ ineedsnow ================================= July may get some action apparently.

First report on anomalies and forecasts ... ________________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _ 8d _____ (anom) _______ +2.8 _+3.7 _+6.1 __ +4.5 _+3.9 __0.0 ___ --0.3 _+0.4 __0.0 _ 8d _____ (p14d) ________+0.4 _+2.5 _+4.0 __ +2.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 ____ 0.0 _+0.5 _ +0.2 _ 8d _____ (p24d) ________+1.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+0.7 _+0.4

Table of forecasts July 2019 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA wxallannj __________________+2.2 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +0.4 _+1.6 _+1.7 ___ --1.1_+1.2 _+2.2 Roger Smith ________________+2.2 _+1.8 _+2.0 __ +1.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ --0.5 _+1.1 _+0.4 smerby ____________________+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.8 __ --0.8 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ --1.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 BKViking ___________________+1.9 _+1.9 _+1.5 __ +0.5 _+1.1 _+0.9 ___ --0.2 _+1.2 _+2.4 Jakkelwx __________________ +1.9 _+1.5 _+1.3 __ +0.6 _+1.1 _+2.1 ___ +0.5 _+1.4 _+1.2 hudsonvalley21 _____________ +1.7 _+2.0 _+1.5 __ +0.7 _+1.4 _+0.3 ___ --0.2 _+0.9 _+1.0 ___ Consensus _____________ +1.7 _+1.5 _+1.3 __ +0.4 _+1.1 _+0.5 ___ --0.4 _+1.0 _+1.6 RodneyS ___________________+1.7 _+1.2 _+1.0 __ +0.2 _+1.1 _+0.3 ___ --0.6 _+0.4 _+1.8 wxdude64 _________________ +1.6 _+1.3 _+1.1 __ --0.2 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___ --0.7 _+0.7 _+1.7 DonSutherland1 _____________+1.2 _+1.2 _+0.6 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.3 ___ --0.4 _+0.3 _+1.5 Tom _______ (-5%) _________+1.2 _+0.9 _+1.1 __ --0.2 _+1.5 _+1.1 ___ +0.5 _+1.1 _+1.6 Scotty Lightning _____________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ Normal __________________0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ================================================================ Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded, but Normal is lowest for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL (tied IAH), PHX and SEA. Welcome smerby and Jakkelwx. (consensus is median value, 6th ranked of eleven forecasts).

+2.2 __ +1.8 __ +2.0 ___ +1.5 __ +1.0 ___ 0.0 ____ --0.5 __ +1.1 __ +0.4

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-June 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>> A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL RodneyS ________________ 377 _492 _478__1347 __402 _402 _506__1310__2657__437 _402 _352 __1191___3848 DonSutherland.1 __________367 _518 _414 __1299 __352 _364 _500 __1216 __ 2515 __ 389 _450_354__1193___3708 ___ Consensus ___________ 419_526_456 __1401__378 _358 _468 __1204 __ 2605 __ 349 _382 _306 __1037 ___3642 wxdude64 _______________395 _495 _433 __1323 __443_318 _453 __1214 __ 2537 __ 380 _375 _301 __1056____3593 wxallannj ________________402 _436 _458 __1296 __316 _396 _476 __1188 __2484 __ 318 _380 _300 __ 998 ____3482 hudsonvalley21 ___________357 _530 _464__1351 __334 _384 _466 __1184 __2535 __ 251 _390 _294 __ 935 ____3470 Roger Smith _____________ 412 _456 _408 __1276 __314 _302 _422 __1038 __2314 __ 427 _322 _318 __1067 ____3381 BKViking ________________ 415 _512 _446 __1373__348_314 _427 __1089 __2462 __ 278 _328 _287 __ 893 ____3355 Scotty Lightning ___________371 _476 _468 __1315 __336 _360 _452 __1148 __2463 __ 210 _322 _260 __ 792 ____3255 Tom ____________________327 _470 _382 __1179 __ 410 _246 _468 __1124 __2303 __257 _368 _284 __ 909 ____3212 ___ Normal ______________ 288 _508 _430 __1226 __374 _258 _470 __1102 __2328 __ 229 _417 _237__ 883 ____3207 Stebo (4/6) ______________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __1656 __ 227 _217 _125 __ 569 ____2225 RJay (4/6) _______________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __1353 __ 263 _279 _188 __ 730 ____2083 tplbge (1/6) ______________ 90 __ 94 _ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___ 72 _ 88 __32 __ 192 _____684 _______________________________________________________________________ Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine). _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ___1 ___1 ___ 3___ 2 ___ 2 ___1 ___0 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN wxallannj _______________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___2 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN Roger Smith ____________ 3 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0 BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lighning __________1 ___0 ___2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ___________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts STANDINGS to date in 2019 RodneyS ____________ 9-4 Roger Smith _________ 9-3 DonSutherland1 ______ 7-0 Scotty Lightning ______ 3-0 Normal __________ 3-1 Stebo ______________ 3-1 wxallannj ____________3-2 wxdude64 ___________ 3-0 hudsonvalley21 _______2-0 RJay ________________1-0 Tom ________________1-1 tplbge ______________ 1-0 ______________________________________________________________________________

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA deadline is 06z Monday July 1st.

Final scoring for July 2019 Scoring is based on final anomalies shown in the previous post. High scores in bold type. Warmest forecasts in red, coldest in blue. Late penalties (BKV) are ** for 2 point and * for 1 point deductions. FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL (all nine) wxdude64 _______________74 _ 92 _ 82 __ 248 __ 98 _ 80 _ 88 __ 266 __514 __ 96_ 94 _ 88__ 278_____ 792 ____ Consensus __________ 94 _ 94 _ 96 __ 284 __ 64 _ 84 _ 86 __ 234 __ 518 __ 70 _ 92 _ 58 __ 220 _____738 RodneyS ________________92 _ 94 _ 98 __ 284 __ 80 _ 72 _ 84__ 236 __ 520 __ 82 _ 68 _ 64 __ 214 _____ 734 ____ Normal _____________ 76 _ 96 _ 90 __ 262 __ 76 _ 92 _ 94 __ 262 __524 __ 64 _ 94 _ 46 __ 204 _____ 728 DonSutherland1 __________ 86 _ 94 _ 94 __ 274 __ 66 _ 88 _ 94 __ 248 __ 522 __ 70 _ 92 _ 42 __ 204 _____726 wxallannj _______________ 86 _ 70 _ 86 __ 242 __ 64 _ 62 _100__ 226 __ 468 __ 92 _ 86 _ 74 __ 252 _____ 720 Scotty Lightning __________ 96_ 84 _100__ 280 __ 66 _ 88 _ 86 __ 240 __ 520 __ 64 _ 86 _ 46 __ 196 _____ 716 hudsonvalley21 ___________80 _ 98 _ 88 __ 266 __ 60 _ 92 _ 98__ 250 __ 516 __ 60 _ 90 _ 50 __ 200 _____ 716 BKViking ___ (-2%) _______ 88**82**88**_ 258 __ 63*_86**84**__233 __491 __ 47*_88**76**_ 211 _____ 702 Roger Smith _____________ 94 _ 96 _ 60 __ 250 __ 92 _ 58 _ 66 __ 216 __ 466 __ 96 _ 76 _ 60 __ 232 _____ 698 tplbge __________________ 90 _ 94 _ 78 __ 262 __ 46 _ 80 _100__ 226 __ 488 __ 72 _ 88 _ 32 __ 192 _____ 680 Tom ___________________ 94 _ 78 _ 90 __ 262 __ 40 _ 70 _ 86 __ 196 __ 458 __ 48 _ 96 _ 56 __ 200 _____ 658 _________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts for June 2019 Five locations qualify ... ORD (-1.2) _ wxdude (--1.3) has high score with second coldest forecast, takes a win, RodneyS (-2.2) would take a loss (changes to a win if -1.8 or colder). ATL (+0.4) _ hudsonvalley (+0.8) has high score and wins for ATL at any outcome colder than +0.9 ... Normal has a loss here (shares win if outcome +0.4 or lower). IAH (+0.3) _ wxallannj and tplbge share a win. DEN (-1.8) _ Wxdude64 (-1.6) and Roger Smith (-2.0) share a win with high scores, wxallannj takes a loss (-2.2) with coldest forecast. SEA (+2.7) _ wxdude64 (+2.1) has high score and wins for SEA. ___________________________________________________________________

Anomaly tracker updates and forecasts ... _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 8th ______ (7d) ________ +2.1 _+2.0 _+1.5 __ +0.1 _+2.6 _+2.1 ___+1.7 _--0.2 _+1.6 15th ______ (14d) _______--0.5 _--0.7 _+0.6 __ --0.9 _--0.1 _+1.2 ___--0.7 _+1.3 _+4.6 22nd ______ (21d) _______+0.6 _--1.0 _+0.3 __ --3.2 _+0.3 _+1.2 ___--2.0 _+0.8 _+3.6 29th _______(28d) ______ +0.9 __ 0.0 _+0.4 __ --1.7 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___--2.4 _--0.1 _+2.6 8th ______(p14d) _______+0.7 _+0.7 _+0.7 __ --0.2 _+0.3 _+2.5 ___--0.6 _+2.0 _+2.0 15th ______(p21d) ________0.0 __0.0 _+1.0 __ --1.3 _--0.4 _+1.5 ___--0.8 _+0.9 _+3.0 22nd ______(p28d) ______ +1.2 _--0.5 _+0.7 __ --1.5 _+0.5 _+1.5 ___--1.3 _+0.5 _+2.2 8th ______(p24d) _______+0.2 __0.0 _--0.5 __ --0.8 _--1.0 _+2.0 ___+0.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 15th ______(p30d) _______+0.5 __0.0 _+0.5 __ --0.6 _--0.5 _+0.5 ___--1.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 22nd ______(p30d) ______ +1.0 _--0.5 _+0.5 __ --1.4 _+0.5 _+1.5 ___--1.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 29th ______(p30d) ______ +1.0 _--0.5 _+0.5 __ --1.4 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___--1.5 _+0.5 _+2.5 1st July __ final anoms ___ +1.2 _+0.2 _+0.5__ --1.2 _+0.4 _+0.3 ___--1.8 _+0.3 _+2.7 __________________________________________________________ 8th _ the story this coming week is a gradual build up of heat in the west, PHX has excessive heat warnings posted for mid-week. Rather cool for mid-June in the east and north central states. These trends seem likely to continue for most of the outlook period but anomalies in the east will remain fairly close to normal. 15th _ The past week NWS forecasts appear to have been quite accurate with an average error of about 0.9 deg. ... as expected the west had a heat wave, PHX has already hit 112 and SEA 95 towards the seasonal max contest. I don't think there are any other contenders yet. This coming week looks relatively bland almost everywhere while staying rather hot in the Pac NW. The portion of the month derived from the GFS 8 to 16 day charts also looked quite close to average for late June with faint signs of a heat wave towards the very end of the guidance in the east, but probably a bit below average for most of the period. 22nd _ The past week had reasonably good forecasts, the average error was 0.8 deg (compare blue text lines). The coming week will be generally a bit warmer than normal except in the Pacific northwest, and trends for 29th-30th appear similar. 29th _ The past week was well predicted, the average error was about 0.5 deg. The provisionals have been retained for the first five locations and changed slightly for the last four. Scoring will be adjusted and annual totals added soon. _______________________________ Note: The 2018-19 snowfall contest is probably done with no snow chances in the DEN forecast or on any maps out to 384h, so you can find the latest updated table in the March thread; RodneyS is the winner.

After one week ... _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 8th _______ (7d) ________ +2.1 _+2.0 _+1.5 __ +0.1 _+2.6 _+2.1 ___+1.7 _--0.2 _+1.6 8th _______(p14d) _______+0.7 _+0.7 _+0.7 __ --0.2 _+0.3 _+2.5 ___--0.6 _+2.0 _+2.0 8th _______(p24d) _______+0.2 __0.0 _--0.5 __ --0.8 _--1.0 _+2.0 ___+0.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 __________________________________________________________ 8th _ the story this coming week is a gradual build up of heat in the west, PHX has excessive heat warnings posted for mid-week. Rather cool for mid-June in the east and north central states. These trends seem likely to continue for most of the outlook period but anomalies in the east will remain fairly close to normal. Note: The 2018-19 snowfall contest is probably done with no snow chances in the DEN forecast or on any maps out to 384h, so you can find the latest updated table in the March thread; RodneyS is the winner.

Table of entries for 2019 Atlantic Tropical-Season Forecast Contest This year, will be keeping all the non-contest-entrant data in a separate zone at the top of the table. For entrants, the forecasts are listed in descending order of total storms with total hurricanes the second point of breaking ties, and majors the third point. FORECASTER ___________ SEASONAL __ MAY ___ JUN___ JUL ___ AUG ___ SEP ___ OCT ___ NOV-DEC Contest Normal ___________16 8 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 3 2 1 __ 0 0 0 Contest consensus ________ 15 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 NHC (high end) ___________15 8 4 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 3 2 1 __ 0 0 0 NHC (midrange) __________ 12 6 3 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 0 0 0 CSU (June fcst) ___________13 6 2 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 0 __ 0 0 0 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Roger Smith _____________18 12_4 ____ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 6 4 2 __ 4 3 1 __ 1 0 0 ineedsnow _______________17 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 1 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 4 1 0 __ 0 0 0 RJay ____________________16 9 4 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 snowlover2 ______________ 16 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 0 0 0 NorthArlington101 _________16 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 Julian Colton _____________ 15 9 4 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 2 2 0 __ 4 3 2 __ 4 2 2 __ 2 1 0 NCforecaster89 ___________ 15 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 1 0 0 hlcater __________________15 7 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 1 0 0 Stormlover74 ____________ 15 5 1 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 2 0 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 0 0 __ 1 0 0 AfewUniv b n _____________14 9 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 3 1 __ 4 3 2 __ 2 2 0 __ 1 0 0 Stebo ___________________14 6 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 CyclonicFury _____________ 14 6 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 0 __ 1 0 0 yoda ____________________13 7 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 4 3 2 __ 3 1 0 __ 0 0 0 yotaman ________________ 13 5 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Apart from my somewhat higher forecast, the rest of our 14 entrants have chosen values fairly close to the long-term average with a bit of a spread, and so the contest is likely to be closely fought (unless we get a very active season). Our consensus is very close to the top of the NHC range.

Okay so that's 13 more named storms, a total of 14 counting the one already recorded in May ... care to mention how many will be hurricanes and of those, major hurricanes? I will enter your numbers scaled to the contest normal in the absence of any further numbers. Thanks. And in general, we have reached the deadline now, so a table of entries will be posted soon.

Table of forecasts for June, 2019 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA wxallannj _______________+1.9 _+1.7 _+1.2 __+0.6 _+2.3 _+0.3 ___--2.2 _+1.0 _+1.4 RodneyS ________________+1.6 _--0.1 _+0.4 __--2.2 _+1.8 _+1.1 ___--0.9 _--1.3 _+0.9 Tom ____________________+1.5 _+1.3 _+1.0 __+1.8 _+1.9 _+1.0 ___+0.8 _+0.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith ______________+1.5 __0.0 _--1.5 __--0.8 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___--2.0 _+1.5 _+0.7 Scotty Lightning ___________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____0.0 _+1.0 __0.0 ____ Consensus __________ +0.9 _+0.5 _+0.3 __+0.6 _+1.2 _+1.0 ___--0.3 _+0.7 _+0.6 BKViking ___ (-2%) ________+0.7 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+0.6 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+0.8 _+0.8 _+1.6 tplbge __________________ +0.7 _+0.5 _--0.6 __+1.6 _+1.4 _+0.3 ___--0.4 _--0.3 _--0.7 DonSutherland1 __________ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+0.6 ___--0.3 _+0.7 _--0.2 hudsonvalley21 ___________+0.2 _+0.3 _--0.1 __+0.8 _+0.8 _+0.4 ___+0.2 _--0.2 _+0.2 ____ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxdude64 _______________ --0.1 _--0.2 _--0.4 __--1.3 _+1.4 _+0.9 ___--1.6 _+0.6 _+2.1 _________________________________________________________________ warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded ... normal is below all forecasts for ATL and IAH. With ten forecasts, the consensus is the mean of fifth and sixth ranked (rounded upwards).

Reasonably good turnout for a first time contest, I for one would not mind seeing an extension through the weekend with a final push for more entries. There's no real "tells" on tonight's GFS that's for sure. But then again, June 1936 was not a very hot month. Little known fact, there were actually some record lows a few days before the big east coast July 1936 heat wave. I think you'll find some for BWI daily max earlier in the month.

April 8, 2024 ... long totality from west TX northeast to upstate NY and Quebec. Bound to be some cloud along that line but should be within reach of most people on the forum with a bit of planning (my target would be west TX, unless a week in advance it looks like a big high over Quebec then I can go there instead).

It's all good, you are not late (deadline 06z) ... My pathetic attempt follows ... +1.5 _ 0.0 _ -1.5 __ --0.8 _ +2.5 _ +2.0 ___ --2.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.7 Good luck and welcome to tplbge.

The deadline for entries will be extended through the weekend of June 1-2 to encourage a larger field. Those who have already entered may edit current forecasts during this time. Absolute deadline June 3rd 0600z, or earlier if the current slowly developing system depicted on NHS guidance map near Belize gets a more definite forecast for named storm activity. Thanks for entering.

I see there's a new invest candidate in the western Caribbean. The seasonal forecast contest will remain open past deadline tonight through the weekend or until that storm gets a more definite forecast posted. See two posts back for the link to the contest.

I wonder if another older analogue might be 1911? There was a very warm May in the east followed by one of the worst heat waves on record in early July. It was a low solar year back in the last weak solar long-term period before the current one (1905-07 peak considered weak, 1917 peak moderate strong).

As always, predict the anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (deadline 06z June 1st).