Roger Smith

+3.4 _ +3.7 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.9 _ +2.6 _ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ -0.7

I would certainly note it and discuss alternate scoring result but contest will be "settled" as of Jan 1st count report.

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z Nov 1st

By end of today, dry spell will rank t5 ... Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ _01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____ _02 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ t03 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 __________ t03 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____ t05 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ t05 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________ t05 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___ t05 ___ 2024 ___ 26 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 25 ___ t09 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ t09 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 _________ t 11 ___ 1922 ___ 24 ___ Sep 13 to Oct 6 _____ t 11 ___ 1980 ___ 24 ___ Jan 23 to Feb 15 ___ t 11 ___ 1963 ___ 24 ___ Oct 4 to 27 _________ t 11 ___ 1995 ___ 24 ___ Aug 7 to 30 _________ Note 9 of 14 listed are in fall (Sep-Nov). Dry spells of 24+ days occur on an average every 11 years, longest span without one was 1885 to 1909 (25 years), second longest was 2002 to 2023 (22 years). Greatest frequency was 5 in 21 years (1922 to 1942) and 4 in 18 years (1963 to 1980). ________x_____________x______xx________xxx__________x__x__x____x________x___x____________x__ ..........1884.............1910........1922,24....1939,41,42......1963,68,73,80........1995..2001 ...........2024 June 1949 was also very dry, its lone .02" fall broke up an "extended" dry spell so it does not join list for 24+ days. Five different 24-day dry spells were in progress Oct 4-6.

There was a strong tropical storm on the east coast in early Nov 1861, not an election year but shows potential for one to disrupt an election I suppose. I expect final count to be 16/11/4 or 5, don't think the season is done yet. Nov-Dec 1887 had five storms. Average for Nov is barely 1.0.

I posted a list of longest NYC dry spells yesterday, now tied 10th longest: Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ _01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____ _02 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ t03 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 __________ t03 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____ t05 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ t05 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________ t05 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___ t08 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ t08 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 _________ t 10 ___ 1922 ___ 24 ___ Sep 13 to Oct 6 _____ t 10 ___ 1980 ___ 24 ___ Jan 23 to Feb 15 ___ t 10 ___ 1963 ___ 24 ___ Oct 4 to 27 _________ t 10 ___ 1995 ___ 24 ___ Aug 7 to 30 _________ t_10 ___ 2024 ___ 24 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 23 ___ It will only take five additional days for Oct 2024 to reach second place behind 36-day 1924. 1973 dry spell was followed by a record rainfall on Oct 29, 1973. 1963 dry spell was part of record dry October (0.14").

All 80F days at NYC this late in the season (included 78 and 79): Oct 21 __ 84_1920 ... 83_1947 ... 80_1949,63,79 ... 79_2024 ... 78_1915,2017 Oct 22 __ 88_1979 ... 83_1920 ... 81_2024 ... 78_1975 Oct 23 __ 85_1947 ... 78_1979, 2007 Oct 24 __ 79_2001 Oct 25 __ 79_1963 Oct 26 __ 78_1963,64 Oct 27 __ 82_1963 ... 78_1947 Oct 28 __ 83_1919 ... 80_2023 ... 79_1984 ... 78_1946 Oct 29 __ 78_1971 Oct 30 __ 82_1946,61 ... 79_1950 Oct 31 __ 81_1946 Nov 1 __ 85_1950 ... 81_1974 Nov 2 __ 83_1950 ... 79_1982 Nov 3 __ 79_2003 ... 78_1990 Nov 4 __ 78_1975 Nov 5-14 __ max values 78 (5th 1961, 7th 1938) Nov 15 __ 80_1993 (not included, 77, 76, 77, 76 Oct 26-29, 1989; 76, 77 Oct 22-23 1900; 73, 76 Nov 1-2 1929; 1994 had a long warm spell Oct 29 to Nov 9: 67, 75, 73, 66, 58, 70, 76, 73, 70, 61, 70, 70 =========================================== Also, as to length of dry spell (now at 23 days Sep 30 - Oct 22 2024) is into top twenty (t14) for NYC (no measurable precip): (second list on right has a limited total precip basis to show almost dry spells, in some cases these include members of the first list ... and Oct 2024 would need to record .15" or less by Oct 29 to start appearing on second list, and would reach first place if the total precip by Nov 15 was .23" or less ... criterion for "extended dry spell" is an average of .01" per two days or less. From the data shown, you can tell that .01" of rain on Nov 14, 1924 was the only precip in a 44-day interval. The one longer "extended dry spell" in summer 1995 had somewhat more intrusive small amounts of rain but included 24 and 12 day absolute dry spells. The third entry (Oct 3 to Nov 14 1952) had frequent very light precip amounts in a generally cold pattern turning mild near its conclusion. It was not impressive for absolute drought. Looking at the absolute dry spells, this one will reach second place if it holds up to Oct 28th (29 days), and would be first if it gets to Nov 5 (37 days). Last year there was a 13-day dry spell Nov 8-20 that completed a 21-day "extended dry spell" starting October 31st. The 2024 absolute dry spell is shown in its current location, to be edited in future days. ____ ABSOLUTE DRY SPELLS ________________ EXTENDED DRY SPELLS _______ Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ Rank _ Year ___ Days, amt ___ Duration (longest ADS) _01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____ 01 ___ 1995 ___ 46 (.18") __ July 29 to Sep 12 (24, 12) _02 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ 02 ___ 1924 ___ 44 (.01") __ Oct 9 to Nov 21 (36) t03 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 __________03 ___ 1952 ___ 43 (.21") __ Oct 3 to Nov 14 (8, 8.) t03 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____t04___ 1901 ___ 40 (.20") __ Oct 15 to Nov 23 (16, 11) t05 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ t04___ 1949 ___ 40 (.12") __ May 27 to July 5 (19, 14) t05 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________ t06 ___ 1874 ___ 38 (.14") __ Oct 11 to Nov 17 (10, 9) t05 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___ t06 ___ 1905 ___ 38 (.19") __ Oct 21 to Nov 27 (12) t08 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ t06 ___ 1910 ____ 38 (.19") __ Sep 7 to Oct 14 (27) t08 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 _________ t06 ___ 2001 ___ 38 (.17") __ Oct 17 to Nov 23 (17, 15) t 10 ___ 1922 ___ 24 ___ Sep 13 to Oct 6 _____t10 ___ 1882 ___ 34 (.08") __ July 20 to Aug 22 (13) t 10 ___ 1980 ___ 24 ___ Jan 23 to Feb 15 ___ t10 ___ 1899 ___ 34 (.17") __ May 12 to Jun 14 (15) t 10 ___ 1963 ___ 24 ___ Oct 4 to 27 _________t12 ___ 1881 ___ 33 (.10") __ Aug 8 to Sep 9 (11) t 10 ___ 1995 ___ 24 ___ Aug 7 to 30 _________t12 ___ 1943 ___ 33 (.13") __ Nov 23 to Dec 25 (13,19) t_10 ___ 2024 ___ 24 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 23 (ranks below prior to new entry) t 14 ___ 1877 ___ 23 ___ Dec 7 to 29 _________t12 ___ 1999 ___ 33 (.16") __ July 3 to Aug 4 (9) t 14 ___ 1991 ___ 23 ___ Oct 18 to Nov 9 _____t15 ___ 1886 ___ 32 (.13") __ Aug 8 to Sep 8 (14) t_14 ___ 2015 ___ 23 ___ Apr 23 to May 15 ___t15 ___ 1886 ___ 32 (.06") __ Sep 24 to Oct 25 (20) _ 17 ___ 1988 ___ 22 ___ Nov 29 to Dec 20 ___t15 ___ 1947 ___ 32 (.11") __ Sep 27 to Oct 28 (12, 9) t 18 ___ 1870 ___ 21 ___ Aug 27 to Sep 16 ____t15 ___ 1963 ___ 32 (.14") __ Sep 30 to Oct 31 (24) t 18 ___ 1895 ___ 21 ___ Feb 9 to Mar 1 ______ t19 ___ 1903 ___ 31 (.11") __ May 7 to June 6 (12,15) t 18 ___ 1904 ___ 21 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 12 ____t19 ___ 1955 ___ 31 (.12") __ Nov 21 to Dec 21 (14) t 18 ___ 1908 ___ 21 ___ Sep 7 to Sep 27 _____t19 ___ 1966 ___ 31 (.09") __ June 18 to July 18 (11) t 18 ___ 1917 ____21 ___ Oct 31 to Nov 20 ____t19 ___ 1989 ___ 31 (.16") __ Nov 29 to Dec 29 (14, 14) t 18 ___ 1962 ___ 21 ___ June 27 to July 17 ___ 23 ___ 1909 ___ 30 (.14") __ Oct 24 to Nov 22 (12) t 24 ___ 1886 ___ 20 ___ Sep 24 to Oct 13 ___ t24 ___ 1877-78_29 (.04") __ Dec 6 to Jan 3 (23) t 24 ___ 1944 ___ 20 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 11 ___ t24 ___ 1880 ___ 29 (.11") __ May 1 to 29 (17) t 24 ___ 1999 ___ 20 ___ May 25 to June 13 __ t24 ___ 1884 ___ 29 (.08") __ Aug 31 to Sep 28 (27) t 27 ___ 1914 ___ 19 ___ Sep 26 to Oct 14 ____t24 ___ 1973 ___ 29 (.03") Sep 30 to Oct 28 (26) t 27 ___ 1917 ___ 19 ___ Sep 9 to 27 _________ t24 ___ 1985 ___ 29 (.14") __ Oct 6 to Nov 3 (10) t 27 ___ 1938 ___ 19 ___ Aug 12 to 30 ________t24 ___ 2001 ___ 29 (.07") Apr 22 to May 20 (26) t 27 ___ 1943 ___ 19 ___ Dec 7 to 25 _________ t30 ___ 1910 ___ 28 (.11") __ June 19 to July 16 (9) t 27 ___ 1949 ___ 19 ___ May 30 to Jun 17 ____t30 ___ 1941 ___ 28 (.00") __ Sep 5 to Oct 2 (28) t 27 ___ 1976 ___ 19 ___ Apr 3 to 21 __________t30 ___ 1964 ___ 28 (.11") __ Oct 22 to Nov 18 (14,10) t 27 ___ 1978 ___ 19 ___ Oct 28 to Nov 15 ____t30 ___ 1976 ___ 28 (.02") __ Nov 1 to 28 (9, 18) t 27 ___ 2007 ___ 19 ___ Aug 22 to Sep 9 ____ t30 ___ 2003 ___28 (.14") __ Jan 7 to Feb 3 (8) ------------------------

1947 and 1963 were similar Octobers (probably a bit warmer) and were followed by wet spells in Nov and cold and snow in Dec (in 1963-64 into Jan). Winters ended with mild, dry Febs and variable marches. Looking at warm Octobers, 2017 was a warm October followed by (in modern terms) a decent winter. Oddly a bad result followed way back in 1879, after a warm October, it was a mild winter. 1971 was followed by a generally mild and snow-deficient winter too. 1900 was followed by a very dry winter, not particularly mild. I will bet Nov is wetter and the winter is not as terrible as the past two. Low bar, but 2024-25 can manage it.

Oscar brings count to 15/10/4, edit in progress.

Nadine boosts count to 14/9/4. Table edited.

Final Scoring for October 2024 based on end of October anomalies as posted above. FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__ cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL Stormchaser Chuck ___________ 98 _ 88 _ 90 __ 276 _ 63 _ 68 _ 38 _169 _445 _ 70 _ 82 _ 68 __220 ___ 665 RodneyS _______________________ 62 _ 70 _ 96 __ 228 _ 43 _ 30 _ 60 _ 133 _ 361 _ 54 _ 35 _ 90 __179 ___ 540 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 92 _ 78 _ 98 __ 268 _ 19 _ 60 _ 40 _ 119 _ 387 _ 22 _ 25 _ 90 __ 137 ___ 524 DonSutherland1 ________________62 _ 50 _ 76 __ 188 _ 27 _ 28 _ 24 _ 079 _ 267 _ 70 _ 84 _ 74 __ 228 ___ 495 wxallannj ______________________ 76 _ 60 _ 86 __ 222 _ 23 _ 52 _ 50 _ 125 _ 347 _ 27 _ 29 _ 78 __ 134 ___ 481 Scotty Lightning _______________ 86 _ 60 _ 86 __ 232 _ 13 _ 72 _ 44 _ 129 _ 361 _ 05 _ 10 _ 94 __ 109 ___ 470 RJay ___________________________ 72 _ 56 _ 82 __ 210 _ 39 _ 56 _ 44 _ 139 _ 349 _ 25 _ 20 _ 74 __ 119 ___ 468 ___ Consensus ________________72 _ 58 _ 84 __ 214 _ 23 _ 48 _ 36 _ 107 _ 321 _ 24 _ 25 _ 80 __ 129 ___ 450 Tom ___________________________ 82 _ 68 _ 94 __ 244 _ 06 _ 46 _ 22 _ 074 _ 318 _ 14 _ 13 _ 92 __ 119 ___ 437 BKViking _______________________72 _ 56 _ 82 __ 210 __ 13 _ 44 _ 34 _ 091 _ 301 _ 25 _ 20 _ 82 __ 127 ___ 428 so_whats_happening ___________68 _ 52 _ 82 __ 202 _ 23 _ 48 _ 24 _ 095 _ 297 _ 21 _ 31 _ 76 __ 128 ___ 425 Roger Smith ____________________46 _ 26 _ 48 __ 120 _ 27 _ 36 _ 24 _ 087 _ 207 _ 20 _ 23 _ 80 __ 123 ___ 330 wxdude64 ______________________44 _ 48 _ 88 __ 180 _ 00 _ 08 _ 00 _ 008 _ 188 _ 00 _ 18 _ 90 __ 108 ___ 296 ___ Normal _____________________ 56 _ 40 _ 66 __ 162 _ 00 _ 32 _ 04 _ 036 _ 198_ 00 _ 00 _ 96 __ 096 ___ 294 _____________ ___ Persistence (Sep 2024) _____ 58 _ 32 _ 72 __ 162 _ 79 _ 60 _ 48 _ 187 _ 349 _ 72 _ 85 _ 96 __ 253 ___ 602 ==================================== Extreme Forecast Report DCA (+2.2) and NYC (+3.0) are wins for high forecasts (StormchaserChuck) (+2.3, +2.4) BOS (+1.7) is a win for hudsonvalley21 (+1.8) and a loss for StormchaserChuck (+2.3). ORD (+5.7) is a win for high forecast StormchaserChuck (+3.5). ATL (+3.4) is a win for high forecast Scotty Lightning (+2.0). IAH (+4.8) is a win for high forecast RodneyS (+2.8). DEN (+8.0) is a win for tied high forecasts StormchaserChuck (+5.0) and DonS (+5.0). PHX (+7.1) is also a win for high forecast DonS (+5.5). SEA (+0.2) ... Scotty L (+0.5) gets a win and RodneyS, wxdude64 share a loss (-0.3) (Normal also gets a win). --------------------------------------------- 2024 scoring to follow ...

Anomalies and projections ... _____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _____ (anom Oct 1-17) ______ +0.3 _ +0.1 _ -0.9 ___ +3.0 _ +1.6 _ +3.7 ___+9.6 _+11.8 _ +0.6 _____ (p anom Oct 1-31) ____ +2.0 _ +2.0 _+1.0 ___ +3.5 _ +2.5 _ +3.5 ___ +4.0 _+6.0 __ 0.0 _____ (anom Oct 1-31) ______ +2.2 _ +3.0 _+1.7 ___ +5.7 _ +3.4 _ +4.8 ___ +8.0 _+7.1 _ +0.2

I've noticed that bogus station several times recently, always sub-20 deg. It's probably a wrongly coded lat-long for a location in the subarctic (27 N 82 W perhaps it's really 82N 27W which would be in n.e. Greenland? or some unintended upper air report? Off topic, but seeing a massive display of aurora borealis here.

Well for me the big "takes" were (a) tornados and (b) Tampa Bay dodged the very costly 12' surge, as far as I know it will be reasonably minor even after winds turn around more westerly -- and despite getting nailed by wind and rain, I would imagine this reduces total damage (and misery) by 90%. And I don't think it came at the expense of worse outcomes to south which were going to be almost same anyway. But I do recall the brief interval when people thought "New Orleans has escaped" before the levees gave way. There is no obvious similar risk but these tremendous rainfalls will no doubt have some severe impacts on valuable property and infrastructure.

28' waves at 42097 (at obs time, est 30 nm e.s.e. current center, reports are every 30 min -- this buoy does not report winds).

I can't see this going truly extratropical before Friday s of SC, but it could be hybrid by 36h. Wasn't there a debate about a possibly too-early call on Sandy being e.t. before NJ landfall? It would only confuse the public who would not get the spreading out wind field concept, personally I think they should retire the whole concept, if it's a hybrid or e.t. storm doing damage then keep issuing advisories until it's not doing damage. Now Kirk is definitely e.t. and has been for 24 ... and it's almost below damage creating criteria (wind gusts in nw Spain were 65-70 on very exposed rocky cliffs and look to be around 60-65 in western France).

Weakening like Tom Brady after 40?

I recall with Katrina there was a 15-20 ft surge (not all of it went into L Pontchartrain but enough did so, to stress the levees). But also I recall a 46' wave report about 30 miles east of the track -- so I would urge people to consider that south of landfall, if the hurricane is still at least cat-3, similar results are possible and 10-15 feet of surge could prove to be conservative, with battering waves on top of a (let's say) 15 to 18 ft surge. I am still leaning towards a relatively northward landfall (Clearwater area) but there's no plausible "good" landfall option at this point.

Japan has taken over tracking Super Typhoon Milton.

I would say track will start to edge slightly north of due east to avoid a landfall on Yucatan but with some of the core scraping along the coast briefly. At some point probably 18-24 hrs from now, possible cat-5 intensity and 910 mb central pressure. Gradually reduces to cat-3 by landfall at a point 25-50 nw of Tampa Bay.

Table of forecasts for October 2024 FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Stormchaser Chuck ___________ +2.3 _ +2.4 _ +2.2 __ +3.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 ___ +5.0 _ +5.3 _ +1.8 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +1.8 ___ +1.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 ___ +2.2 _ +2.3 _ +0.7 Scotty Lightning ________________+1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 Tom ____________________________ +1.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.4 ___ +0.6 _ +0.7 _+0.9 __ +1.4 _ +1.3 _ +0.6 wxallannj _______________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.3 __ +2.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.3 RJay ____________________________+0.8 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ +2.3 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ Consensus _________________+0.8 _ +0.9 _ +0.9 __+1.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.6 __+2.4 _ +2.3 _ +1.2 BKViking ________________________+0.8 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ +1.0 _ +0.6 _ +1.5 __ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.1 so_whats_happening ___________ +0.6 _ +0.6 _+0.8 ___ +1.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +2.1 _ +2.6 _ +1.4 RodneyS ________________________+0.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.5 _ -0.1 _ +2.8 ___ +4.2 _ +2.8 _ -0.3 DonSutherland1 _________________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ +1.8 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 ___ +5.0 _ +5.5 _ +1.5 ___ Normal ______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith ____________________ -0.5 _ -0.7 _ -0.9 ___ +1.7 _ +0.2 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.2 _ +1.2 wxdude64 ______________________ -0.6 _ +0.4 _ +1.1 ___ -0.9 _ -1.2 _ -0.2 ____ -0.6 _ +1.8 _ -0.3 _____________ ___ Persistence (Sep 2024) _____ +0.1 _ -0.4 _ +0.3 ___ +4.3 _ +1.4 _ +2.2 ___ +5.2 _ +5.4 __ 0.0 =================================== warmest and coldest forecasts color coded. Normal is also coldest for PHX

Milton brings count to 13/8/3 and I edited table above for 13/9/3 as per guidance. (Oct 6 _ count is now 13/9/3 and table is now based on 13/9/4 as guidance strongly suggests further intensification). If season ended 13/9/3 scores would be Retrobuc 98.0 and wkd, tae laidir 97.5. Currently next in scoring is Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan at 90.5; KWx is 86.5 and dww is 88.5. If season ended 13/9/4 scores would be wkd, tae laidir 98.5, and Retrobuc 96.0 13/9/4 _ (Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan at 91.5; KWx is 87.5 and dww is 87.5) Top half of table need more storms to start scoring ... 24 (error 11) storms gives an error deduction of 66 (net score 34) so basically if your forecast was 25 or less and you have a reasonable forecast of H and M, your score is positive. (storm errors count 50% relative to H and M errors) Will get into scoring details later in OCT ... looks like 16/10/4 could be a target, if so, contest winner would be Ed.

Kirk brought count to 11/7/3 and Leslie to 12/7/3, very likely to go (edit now is) 12/8/3 (and probably not 12/8/4) so will edit "rest of season forecast" table several posts back now, based on 12/8/3. Next edit will also go forward to latest post. Edit is now added to post ... Oct 6 _ new edit for Milton (1/1/1 is being added now) ... count will be 13/9/4 Oct 19 _ Nadine, Oscar boost count to 15/10/4. Nov 3 _ Patty to 16/10/4 and edit for PTC 18 being at least a TS, potential count 17/10/4. Nov 6 _ Rafael now brings count to 17/11/5 As a scoring post contains following info, it will now be deleted, see Nov 4 post as edited for updates.

<<< OCTOBER RECORDS for NYC >>> DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ___ Low min _________Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ Max snow (10th to 31st) Oct 01 ___ 88 1927 ____ 72 1881, 1954 _ 51 1899 ____ 36 1947 (60) _____4.98 1913 ___ 4.98 1913*__ 2d rain 3.56 2010 (1.10+2.46) Oct 02 ___ 93 2019 ____ 72 1954 ______ 49 1899 ____ 39 1886 (54) _____2.16 1929 ___ 5.28 1913 __ Oct 03 ___ 87 1919 ____ 68 1954, 69 ___47 1888 ____ 38 1888,99,1974 __1.84 1869 ___ 2.16 1929**_ Oct 04 ___ 88 1941 ____ 75 1898 _______51 1883 _____ 37 1888 (55) ______4.05 1877 ___ 4.05 1877*__ 2d rain 3.90 1869 (1.84+2.06) Oct 05 ___ 94 1941^____ 75 1898^______50 1881 _____ 35 1881 ___________1.99 1995 ___ 4.07 1877 __ Oct 06 ___ 90 1941 ____ 71 1910 _______ 50 1935 _____ 36 1881 (60) ______2.70 1871 ___ 2.70 1871*__ 2.39" R 1955 (1d) Oct 07 ___ 88 1944 ____ 70 2005 ______ 48 1873 ____ 39 1954, 99 ______4.09 1972 ___ 4.38 1972 __ Oct 08 ___ 87 2007 ____ 72 2017 ______ 45 1988 ____ 37 1988 __________ 4.30 1903 ___ 4.49 2005 (0.23+4.26) ^ Oct 09 ___ 86 1916 ____ 71 2017 _______ 43 1888 ____ 37 1888, 1988 ____ 7.33 1903 ___11.63 1903 __ Oct 10 ___ 91 1939 ____ 71 2018 _______ 43 1925 ____ 35 1888 ___________2.44 1871 ___ 7.50 1903 __ Tr sn 1925,79 Oct 11 ___ 85 1949 ____ 69 2018 _______ 48 1951 ____ 34 1964 (55) ______3.06 2002 ___ 3.25 2002 __ Oct 12 ___ 86 1928,54 _ 67 1954 _______ 49 1875,87,91_35 1876 (52) ______4.26 2005 __ 4.39 2005, 4.34 2002 _ 3.40 1983 1dR Oct 13 ___ 87 1954 ____ 69 1990 _______ 47 1874 ____ 34 1875 (51) ______2.75 2005 ___ 7.01 2005 __ Tr sn 1937 Oct 14 ___ 84 1920 ____ 68 1990 _______ 45 1889 ____ 37 1988 (53 13th)_ 1.76 1995 ___ 4.29 2005 __ Oct 15 ___ 84 1956 ____ 69 2014 _______ 46 1876 ____ 32 1876 __________ 1.70 1943 ___ 1.95 1995 __ 0.5" sn 1876 Oct 16 ___ 87 1897 ____ 67 1897 _______ 46 2009 ____ 34 1876 (49) ______2.15 1974 ___ 2.35 1974 __ Oct 17 ___ 90 1938 ____ 67 1928 _______ 47 1970 ____ 33 1886 (47 16th) _2.28 1936 ___ 2.30 1936 __ Trace sn 1929 Oct 18 ___ 82 1928 ____ 69 1928 _______ 45 2009 ____35 1929,39,74 _____2.45 1911 ___ 3.24 1932^__Trace sn 1926,72 Oct 19 ___ 85 2016 ____ 68 1905 _______ 43 1972 _____30 1940 (45) ______4.35 1996^___ 4.35 1996*__ Trace sn 1940,72 Oct 20 ___ 80 1947,69 _ 65 1916, 84 ___ 44 1974 _____31 1974 ___________2.78 1989 ___ 4.50 1996^__ 0.5" sn 1952 Oct 21 ___ 84 1920 ____ 64 1947, 79 ___ 43 1888 _____31 1871 (52 20th) _2.17 1995 ___ 2.78 1989**_ Oct 22 ___ 88 1979 ____ 67 1979 _______ 43 1887 ____ 30 1940 (51) ______1.51 2014 ___ 2.17 1995**_ Oct 23 ___ 85 1947 ____ 67 1979 _______ 42 1889 ____ 32 1969 (43) ______2.97 1912 ___ 2.99 1912 __ Oct 24 ___ 79 2001 ____ 67 2017 _______ 44 1889 ____ 31 1969 (51) ______2.51 1917 ___ 3.92 1923^__Trace sn 1960 Oct 25 ___ 79 1963 ____ 69 1908 _______ 40 1879 ____ 29 1879 __________ 3.30 1913 ___ 3.94 1913 __ Oct 26 ___ 78 1963,64 _ 66 1908 _______ 39 1962 ____ 30 1869, 79 ______ 3.40 1943 ___ 3.54 1943 __Tr sn 1903,28,62 Oct 27 ___ 82 1963 ____ 66 1908 _______ 39 1869 ____ 28 1936 (43) ______1.88 2003 ___ 3.55 1943 __ Tr sn 1903,44 Oct 28 ___ 83 1919 ____ 64 1971 ________ 41 1876 _____29 1976 (42 27th)_ 2.49 1953 ___ 2.54 2006 __ Tr sn 1925,34,65 Oct 29 ___ 78 1971 ____ 63 1946 _______ 43 1909,25,52_ 31 1925 (43) ______3.67 1973 ___ 3.67 1973*__ 2.9" sn 2011 Oct 30 ___ 82 1946,61 _ 64 1918, 46 ___ 38 1925 _____ 31 1925 __________1.64 1917 ___ 3.89 1973 ___ 0.8" sn 1925 Oct 31 ___ 81 1946 ____ 62 1881, 1961 _ 41 1869 _____ 29 1887, 1925 (44)_2.41 1956 ___ 2.41 1956*__ (no snow) -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- ^ 5th _ Min with the extreme Oct max of 94 in 1941 was 71. Max with the extreme high mins in 1898 were 80, 81. ^ 7th to 14th _ 2005 had 13.25" rain in eight days with two amounts of 4.26" (8th,12th) and another 4.29" 13th-14th. ^ 18th _ 2d max rain 1932 3.24" (1.15+2.09) also 2.89" 1927 (0.98+1.91). Both greater than 1911 which had zero added. ^ 19th _ 3.12" R in 1966 (1d) .. 3.72 2d 1911 (2.45+1.27). ^ 20th _ 4.19" 2d rain 1989 (1.41+2.78) ^ 23-24 _ 3.92" 2d rain 1923 (2.45+1.47) ________________________________________________________________________________________ Notes: For 2d rain, ** indicates all rain fell previous day, ^ indicates all rain fell only on calendar date (all 2d records are previous day added to day of listing) 1903 2d rain is also annual max. For low min, any temp in brackets is a daily max on same date, not a record low max. Snowfall record column sometimes has overflow from 2d rainfall, "sn" always added to snowfall daily records (starting on Oct 10) 2.9" on Oct 29, 2011 is only 2.5"+ amt before Nov 6 (1879, 2.5") and not surpassed to 4.3" (Nov 7, 2012).

First frost contest? Tick tock.