Roger Smith

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Nov 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH_____cent __ c/e ____ DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __ TOTALS wxallannj _______________819 _782 _830 __2431 __ 613 _806 _675 __2094 _4525 __657 _715 _824 _2196 ___ 6721 ___ Consensus ________787 _786 _846 __2419 __ 613_766 _667 __ 2046 _4465 __576 _671_784 _2031 ___6496 DonSutherland1 ________795 _822 _840 __2457 __ 653 _728 _623 __2004 _ 4461 __666 _694 _656 _2016 ___6477 RJay ___________________ 805 _747 _744 __ 2296 __ 665 _775 _657 __2097 _4393 __579 _619 _697 __1895 ___ 6288 so_whats_happening ___757 _766 _840 __2363 __ 622 _ 718 _590 __1930 _4293 __ 583 _597 _748 __1928 ___ 6221 Scotty Lightning ________742 _679 _739 __2160 __ 459 _805 _733 __1997 _ 4157 __ 544 _593 _839 __1976 ___ 6133 Roger Smith ____________717 _702 _632 __ 2051 __ 633 _773 _579 __ 1985 _ 4036 __610 _765 _714 __2089 ___ 6125 Tom ____________________765 _692 _788 __2245 __ 514 _732 _647 __ 1893 _ 4138 __ 514 _605 _846 __1965 ___ 6103 hudsonvalley21 _________697 _658 _714 __2069 __ 617 _762 _704 __ 2083 _4152 __ 594 _581 _766 __ 1941 ___ 6093 RodneyS _______________ 571 _744 _782 __2097 __ 476 _534 _645 __ 1655 _ 3752 __716 _529 _846 __ 2091 ___5843 rainsucks (9/11) ________ 733 _689 _617 __2039 __ 542 _651 _593 __ 1786 _ 3825 __467 _559 _558 __ 1584 ___5409 (6611) wxdude64 _____________ 494 _577 _701 __ 1772 __ 468 _489 _529 __ 1486 _ 3258 __549 _569 _825 __ 1943 ___5201 BKViking (9/11) _________640 _588 _652 __1880 __ 422 _601 _539 __ 1562 _ 3442 __447 _ 531 _619 __ 1597 ___5039 (6159) --------------------- Persistence ____________ 777 _746 _774 __2297 __523 _758 _651 __1932 _4229 _ 260 _609 _750 __1629 ___ 5858 Normal _________________522 _516 _630 __ 1668 __442 _528 _464 __1434 _3102 _ 474 _468 _912 __ 1854 ___4956 Stormchaser Chuck (7/11)_424_438_472__1334 __397 _388 _352 __1137 __2471 __322 _440 _416 __ 1178 ___ 3649 (5734) Rhino16 (4/11) __________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ___ 2154 (5924) George BM (1/11) ________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 __ 42 __ 160 __ 442 ___ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 ______ 590 (6490) pro-rated scores for entrants above can be better compared to field and Normal. Persistence stayed well above Normal and is advancing into lower portion of forecaster group. ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________3*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 ____1 _May ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 2^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 __ 0 DonSutherland1 _________ 1 ___ 1^ ___ 2 ____ 4 *___ 2*____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____3 ___ 3* ___1 ___ 2^____ 1 ____ 1 RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ ____ 2 *___2 _ Mar, Sep so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 0 ____1 *___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3* ____ 1* ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 3^____ 0 ___ 0 Roger Smith _____________0 ___ 3^ __ 1 ____ 1 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 4^ ___ 1* ____4 ____ 4 _Apr,Jul,Aug,Nov Tom _____________________ 1 ___ 2**__0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 1 *____0 _____0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____0 ____ 2**__1* ___ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 _____0 rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1^ ___0 ____ 1 *____1 _ Feb RodneyS ________________ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 2*___ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _ Jan wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*____0 ____ 0 BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 Normal __________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3^____ 0 ______0 Stormchaser Chuck _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2**__0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 1* ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 1 _ Oct Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______1 _ Jun George BM ______________ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____0 July NYC five tied, added to table ^ ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. RodneyS also DEN in July EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 69 qualified (49 for warmest, 20 for coldest) ... ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1, July 2-3, Aug 3-4, Sep 4-1, Oct 8-1, Nov 4-4 * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER _________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _Oct_ Nov __ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ______________2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 9-3 ___ 9.0 - 2.5 Scotty Lightning ______ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 ___ 9-0 ___ 8.0 - 0 Roger Smith ___________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-1 ____ 9-3 ___ 7.5 - 3.0 RodneyS ______________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1* _ 0-1 ___ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 1.5 ___ Normal ____________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 3-0 __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 2.0 hudsonvalley21 _______ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 0-0 ___ 6-1 ___ 4.0 - 1.0 Stormchaser Chuck ___ 0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 4*-1 _0-0 ___ 6-3 ___ 5.0- 3.0 Rhino16 ________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 ___ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0 DonSutherland1 ________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 _ 1-0 __0-0 _ 2*-0_3*-0 __ 8-0 ___ 7.0 - 0 wxallannj _______________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 ___5-1 ___ 3.5 - 1.0 wxdude64 _____________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 _ 0-1 * _ 1*-0 __5-1 ___ 4.5 - 0.5 RJay ___________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 ___ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0 Tom ____________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 2*-0 __ 2-0 __ 1.5 _ 0.0 so_whats_happening ___0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 1*-0___ 1-0 __ 0.5 _ 0.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-1 __ 0.0 _ 1.0

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z Dec 1st By Dec 10, post snowfall predictions (include snow already reported) DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BuF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV (also note, ne-us snowfall contest off site, at following location, Dec 1 deadline seasonal (Dec - mar only) also storm contests in season. http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES

New table for contest scoring, placing scores in rank order Ranks are (a) overall contest and (b) within your forum Ranks of non-contest entities do not affect entrant ranks. Table will be adjusted if any more activity develops. Ranks _ FORECASTER (order of entry) _____storms_hurr_major __ 18 11 5 (_ 19 11 5 _ 20 11 5) (a) (b) _______________________________________ errors (18 11 5) __ results _ what if ... _ 1 _1 __Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ____________0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___100.0 __(99.5 __ 98.5) _2 _1 __Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) _______0____(-1) __(-1)____98.0 ___97.5 __ 96.5 _3 _2 __Rhino16 (2) ___________________________2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 97.5 ___ 98.5 __ 99.0 _4 _3 __Torch Tiger (13) ______________________ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 97.5 ___ 98.5 __ 99.0 _5 _4 __jlauderdal (36) ________________________1 ___(-2)__ 0 _____96.5 ___ 97.0 __ 96.5 (5.6) ______ NOAA median forecast __________ 3 __-0.5__0.5 ____96.2 ___ 97.7 __ 98.7 _6 _5 __Gawx (35) ____________________________ 3 ___(-1)___0 ____ 96.0 ___ 97.5 __ 98.5 _7 _6 __vpBob (27) ____________________________2 ___(-2)__0 _____95.5 ___ 96.5 __ 97.0 _8 _7 __ldub23 (40) ___________________________3 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 95.0 ___ 96.5 __ 97.5 _9 _8 __Yoda (30) _____________________________4 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____94.0 ___ 96.0 __ 97.5 10 _9__cardinalland (26) ______________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 93.0 ___ 95.0 __ 96.5 11 _2 __Metwatch (NW-1) _____________________ 4 ___(-1)__(-1)____93.0 ___ 95.0 __ 96.5 (11) _____ UKMO forecast _____________________ 4 ___ 1 ___(-1)____ 93.0 ___ 95.0 __ 96.5 12 _10__wkd (29) ______________________________(-3)___(-2)__(-1)___93.0 ___ 91.0 __ 88.5 13 _1 ___tae laidir (IE-4) _______________________(-3)__ (-2)__(-1)___93.0 ___ 91.0 __ 88.5 (13.5) _______ Expert consensus _______________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____92.5 ___ 95.0 __ 97.0 14 _11__Seminole (25) __________________________ 4 ___ 0 __(-2) ____92.0 ___ 94.0 __ 95.5 15 _12 __Hotair (28) ____________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___(-1)____ 91.5 ___ 94.0 __ 96.0 (15.3) __ 1991-2020 average (14/7/3) ________(-4)___(-1)__ (-2) __ 91.0 ___ 89.0 __ 87.5 16 _ 3 __dancerwithwings (NW-2) ______________ 1 __ (-3)__(-2)____ 90.5 ___ 91.0 __ 90.5 17 _ 2 __Pauldry (IE-1) __________________________ 3 ___(-3)__(-1) ___ 90.0 ___ 91.5 __ 92.5 18 _13 __LakeNormanStormin (41) _______________6 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 89.5 ___ 92.5 __ 95.0 (19) ___ Contest consensus (Median) __________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 19 _14 __StormchaserChuck1 (4) ________________ 5 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 88.5 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0 20 _15 __Stebo (17) ______________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 21 _16 __FPizz (18) _______________________________ 5 ___ 2 ___(-1)___ 88.5 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0 22 _ 3 __DOCARCH (IE-2) _______________________ 6 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 23 _17 __Roger Smith (20) _______________________ 6 ___ 0 ___(-1)____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 24 _18 __GeorgeBM (37) _________________________ 5 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 88.5 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0 25 _19 __Eyewall (late) ___________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 26 _20 __Snowlover2 (15) _______________________ 4 ___ 3 ___ 1 _____ 88.0 ___ 90.0 __ 91.5 27 _21 __IntenseWind002 (24) ___________________ 6 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____86.5 ___ 89.5 __ 92.0 28 _22 __CHSVol (5) _____________________________ 7 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 85.0 ___ 88.5 __ 91.5 29 _23 __JonClaw (23) ___________________________7 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 85.0 ___ 88.5 __ 91.5 30 _24 __Big Jims Videos (21) ___________________ 7 ___ 1 ___(-1)_____84.0 ___ 87.5 __ 90.5 31 _25 __ncforecaster89 (38) ____________________ 7 ___ 1 ___ 1 ______84.0 ___ 87.5 __ 90.5 32 _26 __ImleahBradley (19) _____________________ 6 ___ 3 ___(-1)____ 82.5 ___ 85.5 __ 88.0 33 _27 __SnowenOutThere (39) __________________ 6 ___ 3 ___ 1 _____ 82.5 ___ 85.5 __ 88.0 34 _ 4 __Matty40s (NW-3) _______________________ 7 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____82.0 ___ 85.5 __ 88.5 35 _28 __Retrobuc (12) _________________________(-5)__(-3)__(-3)____80.5 ___ 77.5 __ 74.0 36 _29 __wxdude64 (late) ________________________7___(-3) __ 0 _____ 80.0 ___ 83.5 __ 86.5 37 _30 __Southmdwatcher (42) __________________ 4 ___ 4 ___ 3 _____ 79.0 ___ 81.0 __ 82.5 38 _31 __LovintheWhiteFluff (31) _________________ 8 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 78.0 ___ 82.0 __ 85.5 39 _32 __SnowLover22 (43) _____________________ 8 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 78.0 ___ 82.0 __ 85.5 40 _33 __Diggiebot (11) __________________________ 7 ___ 3 ___ 3 _____ 74.0 ___ 77.5 __ 80.5 41 _34 __metalicwx367 (34) _____________________ 8 ___ 4 ___ 2 _____ 69.0 ___ 73.0 __ 76.5 42 _35 __WxWatcher007 (1) ____________________ 10 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 68.5 ___ 73.5 __ 78.0 43 _36 __Brian5671 (22) _________________________ 7 ___ 5 ___(-2) ____67.0 ___ 70.5 __ 73.5 44 _37 __ineedsnow (32) ________________________ 9 ___ 3 ___ 3 _____ 65.5 ___ 70.5 __ 75.0 45 _38 __Tezeta (16) ____________________________ 11 ___ 2 ___ 2 _____ 61.0 ___ 66.5 __ 71.5 46 _39 __nvck (8) _______________________________ 11 ___ 4 ___ 0 _____ 57.0 ___ 62.5 __ 67.5 47 _40 __Yanksfan (9) ___________________________ 9 ___ 6 ___ 0 _____ 56.5 ___ 61.5 __ 66.0 48 _41 __cnimbus (3) ____________________________ 9 ___ 6 ___ 1 _____ 55.5 ___ 60.0 __ 64.5 49 _42 __Jtm12180 (33) _________________________10 ___ 5 ___ 2 _____54.5 ___ 59.5 __ 64.0 50 _43 __Normandy (14) ________________________ 7 ___ 6 ___ 5 _____50.0 ___ 53.5 __ 56.5 51 _44 __LongBeachSurfFreak (10) _____________ 14 ___ 1 ___(-1)____ 45.5 ___ 52.5 __ 59.0 52 _45 __karmac (7) ____________________________ 15 ___ 3 ___ 2 _____31.0 ___ 38.5 __ 45.5 53 _ 5 __WYorksWeather (NW-5) _______________ 14 ___ 6 ___ 3 _____20.5 ___ 27.5 __ 34.0 54 _ 46 __CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _______________15 ___ 4 ___ 3 _____18.0 ___ 25.5 __ 32.5 55 _ 4 __TomCosgrave (IE-3) ___________________ 21 __ 15 ___ 2 _____ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 0.0 (for context, 21 0 0 scores -15.5, 21 15 2 scores -138.5) ______________________________ Kirkcaldy Weather (Net-wx) (KW below) wins at 18/11/5 (and also 19/11/5) Rhino16 and Torch Tiger would have overtaken at 20/11/5. We're not going to know the results for several weeks at least. (edit -- results above (first column of scores) now final.

Just noticed, dry spell ended with a new record daily precip value of 1.57" for Nov 21 (was 1.33" in 1944). (NYC)

Record long extended dry spell ends at 52 days Sep 30 to Nov 20 (0.19").

As Sara never went past TS, scoring table is edited to present scoring for 18/11/5 and potential scoring if we go to 19/11/5 and even 20/11/5.

Final scoring for Nov 2024 based on data posted above FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTALS Roger Smith ___________________ 65 _ 94 _ 96 _ 255 _ 72 _ 54 _ 29 _ 155 _410 _ 86 _ 96 _ 96 _ 278 ___688 Tom ___________________________ 89 _ 72 _ 90 _ 251 _ 64 _ 64 _ 51 _ 179 _ 430 _ 52 _ 70 _ 98 _ 220 ___ 650 Don Sutherland ________________75 _ 92 _ 66 _ 233 _ 80 _ 90 _ 69 _ 239 _472 _ 34 _ 66 _ 76 _ 176 ___648 ___ Consensus _______________ 65 _ 92 _ 90 _ 247 _ 62 _ 48 _ 25 _ 135 _ 382 _ 54 _ 72 _ 80 _ 206 ___ 588 so_whats_happening __________ 63 _ 94 _ 90 _ 247 _ 80 _ 36 _ 16 _ 132 __379 _ 48 _ 72 _ 86 _ 206 ___585 wxallannj ______________________ 65 _ 90 _ 70 _ 225 _ 46 _ 54 _ 23 _ 123 _ 348 _60 _ 86 _ 74 _ 220 ___ 568 RJay ___________________________77 _ 68 _ 74 _ 219 _ 62 _ 56 _ 47 _ 165 __ 384 _ 36 _ 20 _ 70 _ 126 ___ 510 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 49 _ 86 _ 70 _ 205 _ 60 _ 42 _ 18 _ 120 __325 _ 38 _ 54 _ 82 _ 174 ___ 499 RodneyS _______________________ 19 _ 60 _ 42 _ 121 _ 60 _ 36 _ 27 _ 123 __244 _ 82 _ 90 _ 78 _ 250 ___ 494 wxdude64 _____________________ 31 _ 60 _ 38 _ 129 _ 26 _ 10 _ 06 _ 042 _ 171 _ 84 _ 84 _ 98 _ 266 ___ 437 Scotty Lightning _______________ 47 _ 72 _ 46 _ 165 _ 22 _ 26 _ 20 _ 068 _ 233 _ 56 _ 60 _ 80 _ 196 ___ 429 ___ Normal ____________________ 00 _ 32 _ 16 _ 048 _ 02 _ 00 _ 00 _ 002 _050 _ 76 _ 80 _90 _246 ___ 296 ----------------- ___ Persistence (Oct 2024) _____41 _ 92 _ 50 _ 183 _ 84 _ 64 _ 73 _ 221 _ 404 _ 00 _ 00 _ 86 _ 086 ___ 490 ========================= Extreme Forecast Report DCA _ Tom presently in line for a win (high forecast) NYC, BOS _ presently not projected to be extreme forecast results. ORD _ Don S and so_whats_happening likely to share a win (high forecasts) ATL, IAH _ Don S also likely to win two (high forecasts) DEN _ Roger S on track to win (low forecast) PHX _ at -1.0 will be a win for Roger S and a loss for RodneyS (low forecast) SEA _ presently a loss for Roger S and a shared win for Tom and wxdude64. _ snowfall contest is added to DEC contest, seeking advice on 2025 contest plans, we could use a larger field (as always) and I continue to believe a different host might lead to greater participation. I could continue to score contest if desired (not presently in perfect health and concerned at age 75 for guaranteed availability) Normal __________________522 _484 _614 __1620 __440 _528 _464 __1432 _3052 _ 398 _388 _822 __ 1608 ___4660

Recent warm spells failed to set new records for weekly average temps, and unlike many recent warm spells, mean max did better than mean min (a feature of the ongoing dry spell?) ... Oct 31 to Nov 6 was closest to record values but still ended up in fifth place, at 69.29, with three years (1950, 1961, 2022) all tied at 70.00, and 1982 at 69.71 (4th). Oct 19 to 25 (72.86) was 1.57 below 1947 record of 74.43. In between, various other intervals stayed 5-10 below record pace and never did better than the above. In the same interval of Oct 31 to Nov 6, mean min of 52.57F compared to record value of 57.00 (2022), and mean daily (60.94) was below record of 63.50 (2022). Oct 20-26 came closer to a record for mean daily, 63.07 vs 64.86 in 1947 (1920 and 2017 were also warmer than 2024).

Anomalies and projections: _______________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (1-14 Nov anom) _____+7.4 _ +5.0 _ +4.5 ___ +8.0 _+9.2 _+11.3 __-4.1 _ -4.3 _ +1.2 (p anom 1-30 Nov) ___+4.5 _ +3.5 _ +4.0 ___ +5.0 _+5.5 _+6.5 __-1.5 _ -1.0 _ -0.5 (final anom 1-30 Nov)_+5.3 _ +3.4 _ +4.2 ___ +4.9 _+5.4 _+7.3 __-1.2 _ -1.0 _ -0.5 (Nov 15) _ A very warm start in central and eastern regions, cool in western states and n/n PAC NW. Second half of NOV looks set to modify anomalies a little so projections are all closer to average. West will be rather warm at times and may end closer to normal. (Nov 25) _ adj NYC and BOS p anom (were 3.5, 2.5) (Nov 30) _ adj NYC to 3.5 and BOS to 4.0 (were 3.0) ... PHX -1.0 (was -2.0) and SEA -0.5 (was 0.0) Snowfall contest will be linked to Dec contest, DEN already has a snowfall of 20.0"

Don, in general I agree and believe it will be an active winter along a persistent storm track running approx STL-BFD-BTV, so coastal n.e. will often be in warm sectors but could see pre-frontal snow to rain a few times, and likely at least one or two significant coastal storms when and if pattern shifts south briefly. In western Canada as you indicate general expectation is a colder winter with lots of inland snow and the coastal storminess is already well on its way to verifying. I look for a lot of redeveloping scenarios PAC n.w to around s.e. CO, n.w. TX and OK-KS border to feed storm track I referenced. An average to above average sort of lake effect winter since a lot of the storm outbreaks will tend to pull in cold W-NW wraparound. Do you recall winter 1964-65? I was observing (as a teenager) in s Ontario west of Toronto, it was a non-stop parade of storms and all sorts of synoptics. Feb was especially volatile, record warm around Feb 10 and a big snowfall 25th (18"). I think NYC got 50F rain and strong winds from that one. If 1964-65 repeated it would be a very active winter getting off to a slow start in Dec and picking up pace rapidly in Jan. Another winter broadly similar was 1980-81 and a big storm like Jan 1-2 1999 would not be unexpected in the pattern apparently setting up. Lunar declination and tidal energy peaks favor peak storminess mid-Dec and Jan, and very late Dec, Jan. Secondary peaks would be likely but closer to a 5-9-5-9 day cycle than id-cycle secondary peaks. Feb gets into a faster wave modality on that (experimental) energy and would favor a weekly storminess peak on a near 5-8-6-7 day modulation.

In my list of "extended dry spells" with average rainfall less than .01" every two days, 2024 is now about to move into first place, tying 1995 (July 29 to Sep 12, 46 days, 0.18") yesterday ... Sep 30 - Nov 14 2024 (46d) 0.19" and according to GFS will get to 53 days (to Nov 21), 0.07" can fall in next 6-7 days without ending an "extended dry spell" (but little or no rain is predicted)... If 0.10" fell on Nov 22, the extended dry spell would be "dormant" at a total rainfall of 0.29" (0.27" ends a 53 day spell but 3-4 dry days would reactivate it, but GFS guidance looks closer to 0.25-0.50 at least. 1924 ended at 44 days when 1.85" fell on Nov 22 (extended dry spell Oct 9 - Nov 21 had only .01" total on Nov 14 -- spell is in 3rd place now). The 1924 dry spell had 0.28" the day before it started (Oct 8), and seven dry days before that (Oct 1-7), so it was very close to qualifying as a 52-day extended dry spell. Of course my criterion is arbitrary, so there is no real distinction between the 52-day 1924 spell and the apparent 53-day 2024 spell. I chose .01" every two days to allow absolute dry spells to be extended if little rain fell on either side in data sets, and it is equivalent to a monthly total of around 0.15" which is an exceptionally dry total. Spells that average .01" per day would be an interesting comparison, as that is still relatively very dry.

I posted in NYC discussion that a similar dry spell (to 2024) in Oct-Nov 1924 was followed by a winter where almost all the snow (93%) fell in Jan which had a few severe cold spells (record low Jan 28) and that Feb 1925 was mild. Anyway, my winter forecast is along similar lines to discussion above, mixed temperatures, storm track often a bit north of this region, but wit variations so some opportunities for snow. I have predicted 13 to 19 inches at local airports in contest, and 6.5" RIC. It may be a gangbusters winter for parts of central plains, midwest, lower lakes and inland n.e., so when that happens this region is not likely to be shut out entirely.

Re winter forecast, as current dry spell still continuing very similar to 1924 timing, winter 1924-25 featured brief severe cold shots in Jan (-2 F set a record for Jan 28) and a mild spell in Feb peaking Feb 8-11 (records since broken). Then there was the historic super-tornado outbreak of march 18, 1925 (in IL-IN mainly). Total winter snowfall winter 1924-25 was 29.6" of which 27.5" fell in Jan! (11.5" fell on Jan 2nd, precip was 1.95" so it looks like a mixed event) Every other month of winter 1924-25 was a snowfall dud. This was the most "Janucentric" snowfall winter (93%) of all NYC winters, nearly tied second were recent: 3rd going to 2015-16 (27.9" was 85% of winter's 32.8"), and 2nd to 2021-22 (15.3" was 86% of winter's 17.9"); fourth place goes to 1953-54 (12.7" was 80% of winter's 15.8"). Winters of 1885-86 and 1934-35 as well as 1987-88 were also above 67% for winter snow in Jan. I expect winter 2024-25 to be quite active in the central plains, midwest, lower Great Lakes and interior northeast, will probably see relatively average snow totals along coast and frequent winter storms inland. I went a bit above LTA in snowfall contest (saying 32" for NYC) and a total between 25" and 35" would not surprise me. Expect one or two brief severe cold outbreaks and occasional near-record warm spells too.

I suspect that the storm track will often run through Ohio and PA into central NY and n New England. Based on that, I am not wildly optimistic for large snow totals in the contest zone but I will go with the top end of what I see as likely (the bottom end is slim to none). BWI: 17.7 IAD: 19.0 DCA: 13.5 RIC: 6.5 tiebreaker: SBY 7.2

If Sara arrives, count would go to 18/11/5 and possibly 18/12/5 or even 18/12/6. I already had 18/11/5 scoring in tables in previous post, and have now added 18/12/5 and 18/12/6 FYI. I also indicate what any later 19th named storm would mean for scoring leaders. I would not be too surprised by a late Nov or Dec TS add-on, or even two more? This season was looking like an under-performer relative to expectations, but now it looks like we got all but the August portion and the consensus of our hurricane and major forecasts has already peaked in potential scoring (same for NWS and expert consensus). Kirkcaldy Weather (Net-weather entrant) will have a perfect forecast if and when Sara does arrive, and would then lose a point for each occasion that Sara intensifies to hurricane or even major. Even so, their points total remains in the lead for any Sara outcome. A number of American Weather entrants are 0.5 to 2.0 behind various Sara outcomes, and could move past Kirkcaldy Weather if a 19th named storm appeared later. (all scoring details in previous post)

Not only is 2024 a dry fall, it's a very dry season overall for NYC: I've listed all 3-month intervals, seasons or not, that fell below 6" total. (fall 2024 only 1.77" so far) ... <<< DRY 3-month intervals at NYC >>> Before 1950 ________________________________________________ Since 1950 INTERVAL __________ SEASON? ______ TOTAL PRECIP ______ INTERVAL __________ SEASON? ______ TOTAL PRECIP Dec 1871-Feb 1872 __ winter __________ 5.41" _______________ May 1954 - Jul 1954 __ -- -- _________ 5.38" Sep 1879-Nov 1879__ autumn _________ 5.00"_______________ May 1955 - Jul 1955 __ -- -- _________ 5.67" Apr 1880-Jun 1880 ___ -- --___________ 4.66"________________ Nov 1958 - Jan 1959 _ -- -- _________ 5.44" Jul 1881 - Sep 1881 ___ -- --___________ 3.08"________________ Dec 1958 - Feb 1959 _ winter _______ 5.28" Aug 1881 - Oct 1881___ -- --___________ 3.43"________________ Aug 1964 - Oct 1964 __ -- -- ________3.66" Sep 1881 - Nov 1881__ autumn ________ 4.93"________________ Sep 1964 - Nov 1964 _ autumn _____ 5.97" Oct 1882 - Dec 1882 _ -- -- ___________ 4.70"________________ Apr 1965 - Jun 1965 __ -- -- _________5.75" Mar 1885 - May 1885 _ spring _________ 4.95" _______________ May 1965 - Jul 1965 __ -- -- _________4.18" Apr 1885 - Jun 1885 __ -- -- ___________ 5.37" _______________ Jun 1965 - Aug 1965 __ summer _____5.33" Aug 1886 - Oct 1886 __ -- -- __________ 5.19" ________________ Jul 1965 - Sep 1965 __ -- -- ________ 5.76" Aug 1892 - Oct 1892 __ -- -- __________ 5.81" ________________ Sep 1965 - Nov 1965__ autumn _____ 5.32" Jun 1894 - Aug 1894 __ summer _______4.36" ________________Oct 1965 - Dec 1965 __ -- -- _________5.38" Apr 1899 - Jun 1899 __ -- -- ___________ 5.09" ________________Nov 1965 - Jan 1966 __ -- --_________5.85" Oct 1899 - Dec 1899 __ -- -- ___________5.83" ________________ Jun 1966 - Aug 1966 __summer _____4.31" Dec 1900 - Feb 1901 __ winter _________ 4.22" ________________ Nov 1976 - Jan 1977 __-- -- _________4.88" Sep 1901 - Nov 1901 __ autumn ________ 5.76" ________________ Dec 1979 - Feb 1980 __ winter ______ 5.45" Sep 1908 - Nov 1908__ autumn ________ 4.00" _______________ Nov 1980 - Jan 1981 __ -- -- _________5.27" Oct 1908 - Dec 1908 __ -- -- ___________ 5.28" _______________ Jan 1985 - Mar 1985 __ -- -- _________5.32" Sep 1909 - Nov 1909__ autumn ________ 4.67" ________________Feb 1985 - Apr 1985 __ -- -- _________5.83" Jul 1910 - Sep 1910 __ -- -- ____________2.98" ________________May 1993 - Jul 1993 __ -- -- _________4.75" Aug 1910 - Oct 1910__ -- -- _____________5.72" _________________Oct 1998 - Dec 1998 __-- -- ________ 5.36" Sep 1914 - Nov 1914 __ autumn _________5.83"_________________May 1999 - Jul 1999 __ -- -- _________5.07" Oct 1924 - Dec 1924 __ -- -- ___________ 4.91" ________________ Jun 1999 - Aug 1999 __summer _____3.92" Apr 1926 - Jun 1926 __ -- -- ___________ 5.86" ________________ Oct 2001 - Dec 2001 __ -- -- ________4.26" Oct 1928 - Dec 1928 __ -- -- ___________ 5.01" ________________ Nov 2001 - Jan 2002 __ -- -- ________5.53" Jun 1929 - Aug 1929 __ summer _______ 4.58" ________________ Dec 2001 - Feb 2002 __ winter _____ 4.88" Jul 1929 - Sep 1929 __ -- -- ____________5.80" _________________Jan 2009 - Mar 2009 __ -- -- _______ 5.66" Sep 1931 - Nov 1931 __ autumn ________ 4.97" _________________Jan 2012 - Mar 2012 __ -- -- ________5.56" Oct 1931 - Dec 1931 __ -- -- ____________5.84" _________________Feb 2012 - Apr 2012 ___ -- -- ________5.89" Jul 1932 - Sep 1932 __ -- -- ____________5.86" _________________ Mar 1935 - May 1935 _ spring _________ 5.06" May 1939 - Jul 1939 _ -- -- ____________5.69" Nov 1939 - Jan 1940 _ -- -- ___________ 5.40" Sep 1941 - Nov 1941 __ autumn ________ 5.77" Oct 1946 - Dec 1946 __ -- -- __________ 4.16" Aug 1948 - Oct 1948 __ -- -- __________ 5.78" Sep 1948 - Nov 1948 __ autumn _______5.96" Oct 1949 - Dec 1949 __ -- -- __________ 5.16" Nov 1949 - Jan 1950 __ -- -- __________ 5.50" ====================================== Note the frequency of dry 3-month intervals has been declining especially in past 3 decades, two dry months are often now terminated by a faster reversal. It remains to be seen where fall 2024 fits in, but driest 3-month spell so far is 2.98" (July - Sep 1910). Seasons in list include winter 5 spring 2 summer 5 autumn 11 A lot of non-season entries are in the overlaps of summer and autumn. Some entries are consecutive indicating dry 4 to 9 month intervals on a similar scale. (1965 has a long string ending Jan 1966) There are 45 groups of entries indicating dry intervals appear once every 3.5 years. The chances of any case extending to 4 months is one in three, an extension to five months is closer to a 10% chance. Of course, very dry 90-day intervals can be lost in the data if they begin and end near mid-months and only have two dry months as a base. June 1949 had only .02" rain yet did not come close to making the list.

As discussed, absolute dry spell of 29 days earlier was second longest for NYC (1924 longer). I also have a list of "extended dry spells" where the criterion is an average of .01" per two days, or less. On that measure, presently at 41 days in 4th place. An amount of .21" on Sunday would end this spell but it could restart if further rain does not keep pace. So top ten at present for both types: ____ ABSOLUTE DRY SPELLS ______________ EXTENDED DRY SPELLS _______ Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ Rank _ Year ___ Days, amt ___ Duration (longest ADS) _01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____01 ___ 1995 ___ 46 (.18") __ July 29 to Sep 12 (24, 12) _02 __ 2024 ___29 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 28 ___ 02 ___ 1924 ___ 44 (.01") __ Oct 9 to Nov 21 (36) _03 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ 03 ___ 1952 ___ 43 (.21") __ Oct 3 to Nov 14 (8, 8.) t04 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 _________ 04 ___ 2024 ___ 41 (.01") __ Sep 30 to Nov 9 (29, 11) t04 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____t05___ 1901 ___ 40 (.20") __ Oct 15 to Nov 23 (16, 11) t06 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ t05___ 1949 ___ 40 (.12") __ May 27 to July 5 (19, 14) t06 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________t07 ___ 1874 ___ 38 (.14") __ Oct 11 to Nov 17 (10, 9) t06 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___t07 ___ 1905 ___ 38 (.19") __ Oct 21 to Nov 27 (12) t09 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ t07 ___ 1910 ____ 38 (.19") __ Sep 7 to Oct 14 (27) t09 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 ________ t07 ___ 2001 ___ 38 (.17") __ Oct 17 to Nov 23 (17, 15) -------------------------------------- The criteria for extended dry spells allow in some rather moderate occasions, and if the criteria were .01" per ten days, only 2 and 4 would qualify (for entire stated periods). Oct 1973 in t24 (29 days .03" same dates as 2024 absolute spell) is next longest interval listed (partial cases might extend also).

Previous runs of NYC winters <20" snow (3 or more years) Rank ___ Winters ___________________ values _ 01 ____ 6 _ 1949-50 to 1954-55 ____14.0, 9.3, 19.7, 15.1, 15.8, 11.5 _ 02 ____ 5 _ 1927-28 to 1931-32 ____ 14.5, 13.8, 13.6, 11.6, 5.3 _ 03 ____ 4 _ 1996-97 to 1999-2000__10.0, 5.5, 12.7, 16.3 _t04 ____ 3 _ 1987-88 to 1989-90 ____19.1, 8.1, 13.4 _t04 ____ 3 _ 2021-22 to 2023-24 ___ 17.9, 2.3, 7.5 (also 6 cases of 2 consecutive winters and 18 cases of solo <20" winters) Before 1927-28, only one consecutive pair, 1899-1900 and 1900-01, rest of six total were 1936-37/1937-38 ... 1961-62/1962-63 ... 1974-75/1975-76 ... 1979-80/1980-81 ... 2006-07/2007-08

Table of forecasts for Nov 2024 FORECASTER _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Tom ________________________________ +4.6 _ +4.8 _ +4.7 __ +3.1 _ +3.4 _ +3.7 __ +1.2 _ +0.5 _ -0.6 RJay _______________________________ +4.0 _ +5.0 _ +5.5 __ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 __ +2.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.0 Don Sutherland _____________________+3.9 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.9 _ +4.7 _ +4.6 __ +2.1 _ +0.7 _ +0.7 Roger Smith ________________________ +3.4 _ +3.7 _ +4.0 __ +3.5 _ +2.9 _ +2.6 __ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ -0.7 wxallannj ___________________________ +3.4 _ +2.9 _ +2.7 __ +2.2 _ +2.9 _ +2.3 __ +0.8 _ -0.3 _ +0.8 ___ Consensus ____________________ +3.4 _ +3.0 _ +3.7 __ +3.0 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 __ +1.1 __+0.4 _ +0.5 so_whats_happening _______________ +3.3 _ +3.1 _ +3.7 __ +3.9 _ +2.0 _ +1.6 __ +1.4 _ +0.4 _ +0.2 hudsonvalley21 _____________________ +2.6 _ +2.7 _ +2.7 __ +2.9 _ +2.3 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +1.3 _ +0.4 Scotty Lightning ____________________ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 wxdude64 __________________________ +1.7 _ +1.4 _ +1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +0.7 _ +0.6 ___ -0.4 _ -0.2 _ -0.4 RodneyS ____________________________ +1.1 __+1.4 _ +1.3 __ +2.9 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 ___ -0.3 _ -1.5 _ +0.6 ----------------- ___ Persistence (Oct 2024) __________+2.2 _ +3.0 _ +1.7 __ +5.7 _ +3.4 _ +4.8 ___ +8.0 _ +7.1 _ +0.2 ============================================ high and low forecasts are color coded ... Normal is lower than all forecasts for first six locations.

Scoring for contest possible results (note Nov 15, 18/11/5 is now basis of table errors, and 18/12/5, 18/12/6 will be added to potential scores. As 18 is confirmed, 17/11/5 scores were removed (note Nov 19, Sara only a TS, 18/12/5 and 18/12/6 are now 19/11/5 and 20/11/5 in case one or two more TS develop before end of Dec. reminder, error point deductions from 100 are scored by formula (E + E^2) / 2, except that storm errors are (E + E^2) / 4. A total score below zero is adjusted to zero. (E = category error). Residual errors for 18/11/5 FORECASTER (order of entry) _________storms_hurr_major __ 18 11 5 _ 19 11 5 _ 20 11 5 TomCosgrave (IE-3) _____________________ 21 ___ 15 ____ 2 _____ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 0.0 (for context, 21 0 0 scores -15.5, 21 15 2 scores -138.5) CurlyHeadBarrett (late) __________________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 3 _____18.0 ___ 25.5 __ 32.5 karmac (7) ________________________________15 ____ 3 ____ 2 _____31.0 ___ 38.5 __ 45.5 WYorksWeather (NW-5) __________________14 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____20.5 ___ 27.5 __ 34.0 LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ________________ 14 ____ 1 ____(-1)____45.5 ___ 52.5 __ 59.0 nvck (8) __________________________________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 0 _____57.0 ___ 62.5 __ 67.5 Tezeta (16) _______________________________ 11 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____61.0 ___ 66.5 __ 71.5 Jtm12180 (33) ____________________________ 10 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____54.5 ___ 59.5 __ 64.0 WxWatcher007 (1) ________________________10 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 68.5 ___ 73.5 __ 78.0 cnimbus (3) _______________________________ 9____ 6 ____ 1 _____ 55.5 ___ 60.0 __ 64.5 Yanksfan (9) ______________________________ 9____ 6 ____ 0 _____ 56.5 ___ 61.5 __ 66.0 ineedsnow (32) ___________________________ 9 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____65.5 ___ 70.5 __ 75.0 metalicwx367 (34) ________________________ 8 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____69.0 ___ 73.0 __ 76.5 LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ____________________8 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 78.0 ___ 82.0 __ 85.5 SnowLover22 (43) ________________________ 8 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 78.0 ___ 82.0 __ 85.5 Normandy (14) ____________________________ 7 ____ 6 ____ 5 _____50.0 ___ 53.5 __ 56.5 Brian5671 (22) ____________________________ 7 ____ 5 ____(-2) ____67.0 ___ 70.5 __ 73.5 Diggiebot (11) ______________________________7 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____74.0 ___ 77.5 __ 80.5 Matty40s (NW-3) _________________________ 7 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 82.0 ___ 85.5 __ 88.5 ncforecaster89 (38) _______________________7 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 84.0 ___ 87.5 __ 90.5 CHSVol (5) ________________________________ 7 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____85.0 ___ 88.5 __ 91.5 JonClaw (23) ______________________________7 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____85.0 ___ 88.5 __ 91.5 Big Jims Videos (21) ______________________ 7 ____ 1 ____(-1)_____84.0 ___ 87.5 __ 90.5 wxdude64 (late) ___________________________7 ___(-3) ___ 0 _____80.0 ___ 83.5 __ 86.5 SnowenOutThere (39) ____________________ 6 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 82.5 ___ 85.5 __ 88.0 ImleahBradley (19) ________________________ 6 ____ 3 ____(-1)____82.5 ___ 85.5 __ 88.0 IntenseWind002 (24) ______________________6 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____86.5 ___ 89.5 __ 92.0 Stebo (17) _________________________________ 6 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 Eyewall (late) ______________________________ 6 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 DOCARCH (IE-2) ___________________________6 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 LakeNormanStormin (41) ___________________6 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____89.5 ___ 92.5 __ 95.0 Roger Smith (20) ___________________________6 ____ 0 ____(-1)____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 ___ Contest consensus (Median) _________ 6 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0 StormchaserChuck1 (4) ____________________5 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 88.5 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0 GeorgeBM (37) _____________________________5 ____ 2 ____1 _____ 88.5 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0 FPizz (18) __________________________________ 5 ____ 2 ____(-1)___ 88.5 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0 ___ Expert consensus ______________________ 5 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____92.5 ___ 95.0 __ 97.0 Hotair (28) _________________________________ 5 ____ 0 ____(-1)____ 91.5 ___ 94.0 __ 96.0 Southmdwatcher (42) ______________________ 4 ____ 4 ____ 3 ____ 79.0 ___ 81.0 __ 82.5 Snowlover2 (15) ____________________________ 4 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 88.0 ___ 90.0 __ 91.5 cardinalland (26) ___________________________ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 93.0 ___ 95.0 __ 96.5 Yoda (30) ___________________________________4 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 94.0 ___ 96.0 __ 97.5 ___ UKMO forecast _________________________ 4 ____ 1 ____(-1)____ 93.0 ___ 95.0 __ 96.5 Seminole (25) _______________________________4 ____ 0 ___(-2) ____ 92.0 ___ 94.0 __ 95.5 Metwatch (NW-1) ___________________________ 4 ____(-1)___(-1)____ 93.0 ___ 95.0 __ 96.5 ldub23 (40) _________________________________ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 95.0 ___ 96.5 __ 97.5 ___ NOAA median forecast __________________ 3 ___-0.5 __0.5 ____ 96.2 ___ 97.7 __ 98.7 Gawx (35) ___________________________________ 3 ____(-1)____ 0 ____ 96.0 ___ 97.5 __ 98.5 Pauldry (IE-1) ________________________________ 3 ____(-3)___(-1) ___ 90.0 ___ 91.5 __ 92.5 Rhino16 (2) ___________________________________2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 97.5 ___ 98.5 __ 99.0 Torch Tiger (13) ______________________________2 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 97.5 ___ 98.5 __ 99.0 vpBob (27) ___________________________________2 ____(-2)___0 _____ 95.5 ___ 96.5 __ 97.0 jlauderdal (36) _______________________________ 1 ____(-2)___ 0 _____96.5 ___ 97.0 __ 96.5 dancerwithwings (NW-2) ____________________ 1 ___ (-3) __(-2)____ 90.5 ___ 91.0 __ 90.5 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ____________________0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ___100.0 ___99.5 __ 98.5 Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) ______________ 0_____(-1) ___(-1)____98.0 ___ 97.5 __ 96.5 wkd (29) _____________________________________(-3) ___(-2) __(-1)____93.0 ___ 91.0 __ 88.5 tae laidir (IE-4) _______________________________(-3)___ (-2) __(-1)____93.0 ___ 91.0 __ 88.5 Retrobuc (12) _________________________________(-5)___(-3)__(-3)____80.5 ___ 77.5 __ 74.0 ______________________________ Kirkcaldy Weather (Net-wx) (KW below) wins at 18/11/5 and also 19/11/5 . Rhino16 and Torch Tiger would overtake at 20/11/5. We're not going to know the results for several weeks at least. <<< Table will be re-ordered closer to end of contest to include ranks) --------------------------------- (original forecasts) TomCosgrave (IE-3) ________________________ 39 _____ 26 ______ 7 CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _____________________ 33 _____ 15 ______ 8 (will rank, ineligible to win) karmac (7) __________________________________ 33 _____ 14 ______ 7 WYorksWeather (NW-5) _____________________32 _____ 17 ______ 8 LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ___________________ 32 _____ 12 ______ 4 nvck (8) _____________________________________ 29 _____ 15 ______ 5 Tezeta (16) __________________________________ 29 _____ 13 ______ 7 Jtm12180 (33) _______________________________28 _____ 16 ______ 7 WxWatcher007 (1) __________________________ 28 _____ 13 ______ 6 cnimbus (3) _________________________________ 27 _____ 17 ______ 6 Yanksfan (9) _________________________________27 _____ 17 ______ 5 ineedsnow (32) ______________________________27 _____ 14 ______ 8 metalicwx367 (34) __________________________ 26 _____ 15 ______ 7 LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ______________________26 _____ 13 ______ 6 SnowLover22 (43) __________________________ 26 _____ 13 ______ 6 Normandy (14) ______________________________ 25 _____ 17 _____ 10 Brian5671 (22) ______________________________ 25 _____ 16 ______ 3 Diggiebot (11) _______________________________ 25 _____ 14 ______ 8 Matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 7 ncforecaster89 (38) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 6 CHSVol (5) __________________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 5 JonClaw (23) ________________________________25 _____ 12 ______ 5 Big Jims Videos (21) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 4 wxdude64 (late) ____________________________ 25 ______ 8 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) SnowenOutThere (39) _______________________24 _____ 14 ______ 6 ImleahBradley (19) __________________________ 24 _____ 14 ______ 4 IntenseWind002 (24) ________________________24 _____ 13 ______ 5 Stebo (17) ___________________________________ 24 _____ 12 ______ 5 Eyewall (late) ________________________________24 _____ 12 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) DOCARCH (IE-2) ____________________________ 24 _____ 11 ______ 6 LakeNormanStormin (41) ____________________24 _____ 11 ______ 5 Roger Smith (20) ____________________________24 _____ 11 ______ 4 ___ Contest consensus (Median) __________ 24 _____ 12 _____ 5 StormchaserChuck1 (4) _____________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6 GeorgeBM (37) _____________________________ 23 _____ 13 ______ 6 FPizz (18) ___________________________________ 23 _____ 13 ______ 4 ___ Expert consensus _______________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 5 Hotair (28) __________________________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 4 Southmdwatcher (42) _______________________22 _____ 15 ______ 8 Snowlover2 (15) _____________________________22 _____ 14 ______ 6 cardinalland (26) ____________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 6 Yoda (30) ____________________________________22 _____ 12 ______ 5 ___ UKMO forecast __________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 4 Seminole (25) _______________________________ 22 _____ 11 ______ 3 Metwatch (NW-1) ___________________________ 22 _____ 10 ______ 4 ldub23 (40) __________________________________21 _____ 11 ______ 5 ___ NOAA median forecast __________________ 21 _____ 10.5 ___ 5.5 Gawx (35) ___________________________________21 _____ 10 ______ 5 Pauldry (IE-1) ________________________________21 ______ 8 ______ 4 Rhino16 (2) __________________________________20 _____ 12 ______ 5 Torch Tiger (13) _____________________________20 _____ 11 ______ 6 vpBob (27) __________________________________20 ______ 9 ______ 5 jlauderdal (36) ______________________________ 19 ______ 9 ______ 5 dancerwithwings (NW-2) ____________________19 ______ 8 ______ 3 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ___________________18 _____ 11 ______ 5 Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) _______________ 18 _____ 10 ______ 4 wkd (29) _____________________________________15 ______ 9 ______ 4 tae laidir (IE-4) ______________________________ 15 ______ 9 ______ 4 Retrobuc (12) ________________________________ 13 ______ 8 ______ 2 --------------------------

Patty brough the count to 16/10/4 and PTC 18 will bring it to 17/10/4 if a TS is declared (and to 17/11/4 if a 'cane is result). Table edited to reflect likely 17/10/4 count soon.

Nov 1950 also started with max temps in low to mid 80s and went on to produce a second memorable November event, the "Great Appalachian storm" of Nov 24-26 (I know people here are generally familiar with its legacy of strong wind gusts at coast and heavy snow inland, CLE had 30" and Toronto 13" for its Nov daily record). Another intense northward moving NOV storm was Nov 9-10, 1913. Like this year, 1913 and 1950 were close to lunar declination maxima. (occurring every 18.6 years)

I think it will be a rather variable pattern for eastern regions with some brief "good" wintry episodes and also some near-record-warm spells alternating, trending to a cold early spring. Expect heavy snowfalls inland PAC NW into CO-WY and redevelopment of those storms near OK-KS border regions tracking into Ohio valley and inland northeast. Severe cold will be frequent in western Canada, n plains states and a modified version will occasionally sweep into GL and interior NEast.

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Oct 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> wxallannj _______________ 754 _692 _760 __2206 __ 567 _752 _652 __1971 _4177 __597 _629 _750 _1976 ___ 6153 ___ Consensus _________ 722 _694 _756 __2172 __ 551_718 _642 __ 1911 _4083 __522 _599_704 _1825 ___ 5908 DonSutherland1 _________720 _730 _774 __2224 __ 573 _638 _554 __1765 _3989 __632 _628 _580 _1840 ___ 5829 RJay ____________________ 728 _679 _670 __2077 __ 603 _719 _610 __1932 _4009 __543 _599 _627 __1769 ___ 5778 Scotty Lightning ________ 695 _607 _693 __1995 __ 437 _779 _713 __1929 _3924 __488 _533 _759 __1780 ___ 5704 so_whats_happening ___ 694 _672 _750 __2116 __ 542 _ 682 _574 __1798 _3914 __ 535 _525 _662 __1722 ___ 5636 hudsonvalley21 _________ 648 _572 _644 __1864 __ 557 _720 _686 __1963 _3827 __ 556 _527 _684 __1767 ___ 5594 Tom _____________________676 _620 _698 __1994 __ 450 _668 _596 __1714 _3708 __ 462 _535 _748 __1745 ___ 5453 Roger Smith _____________652 _608 _536 __1796 __ 561 _719 _550 __1830 _ 3626 __ 524 _669 _618 __ 1811 ___ 5437 rainsucks (9/10) ________ 733 _689 _617 __2039 __ 542 _651 _593 __1786 _ 3825 __467 _559 _558 __ 1584 ___5409 (6010) RodneyS ________________552 _684 _740 __1976 __ 416 _498 _618 __ 1532 _ 3508 __ 634 _439 _768 __1841 ___5349 BKViking (9/10) _________ 640 _588 _652 __1880 __ 422 _601 _539 __1562 _ 3442 __447 _ 531 _ 619 __1597 ___5039 (5599) wxdude64 ______________ 463 _517 _663 __1643 __ 442 _479 _523 __1444 _ 3087 __465 _485 _727 __1677 ___4764 --------------------- Persistence _____________ 736 _654 _724 __2114 __439 _694 _578 __ 1711 _3825 _ 260 _609 _664 __1543 ___ 5368 Normal __________________522 _484 _614 __1620 __440 _528 _464 __1432 _3052 _ 398 _388 _822 __ 1608 ___4660 Stormchaser Chuck (7/10)_424_438_472__1334 __397 _388 _352 __1137 __2471 __322 _440 _416 __ 1178 ___ 3649 (5213) Rhino16 (4/10) ___________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ___ 2154 (5385) George BM (1/10) _________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 __ 42 __ 160 __ 442 ___ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 ______ 590 (5900) pro-rated scores for entrants above can be better compared to field and Normal. Persistence stayed well above Normal and is advancing into lower portion of forecaster group. ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________3*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 _____1 _May ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 ____ 0 DonSutherland1 _________ 1 ___ 1^ ___ 2 ____ 4 *___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____2 ___ 3* ___1 ___ 2^____ 1 _____ 0 RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ ____ 2 *____2 _ Mar, Sep Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3* ____ 1* ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 3^____ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 _____0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 _____ 0 Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 2**__0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith _____________0 ___ 2^ __ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 3^ ___1* ____3 ____ 3 _Apr,Jul,Aug rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1^ ___0 ____ 1 *____ 1 _ Feb RodneyS ________________ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 Normal __________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3^____ 0 ______0 Stormchaser Chuck _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2**__0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 1* ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 1 _ Oct Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______1 _ Jun George BM ______________ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 July NYC five tied, added to table ^ ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. RodneyS also DEN in July EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 61 qualified (45 for warmest, 16 for coldest) ... ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1, July 2-3, Aug 3-4, Sep 4-1, Oct 8-1 * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER ___________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _Oct __ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ________________2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0 __ 9-3 ___ 9.0 - 2.5 Scotty Lightning _________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 __9-0 ___ 8.0 - 0 Roger Smith ______________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __7-2 ___ 5.5 - 2.0 RodneyS _________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1*__7-1 ___ 7.0 - 0.5 ___ Normal _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 3-0 __ 1-0 _ 1-0 __7-2 ___ 7.0 - 2.0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 6-1 ___ 4.0 - 1.0 Stormchaser Chuck ______0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 4*-1 __ 6-3 ___ 5.0- 3.0 Rhino16 __________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0 DonSutherland1 __________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 _ 1-0 __0-0 _ 2*-0__ 5-0 ___ 4.5 - 0 wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-1 ___ 3.5 - 1.0 wxdude64 _______________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 _ 0-1 *__ 4-1 ___ 4.0 - 0.5 RJay _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0 BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-1 Tom, swh _________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 __ 0-0

+3.4 _ +3.7 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.9 _ +2.6 _ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ -0.7