Roger Smith

The spring season is in the books, relatively warm at both locations, in particular mid-April with several daily records falling at both Toronto and NYC. May was quite dry, at Toronto there were two dry spells, 8th-18th, and 21st-June 1st. Both locations hit 91F on June 2nd, not quite a record value for either, and then fell off to near 10 C by morning of 4th -- at NYC that proved to be within one degree of a record low set in 1926. The current northerly flow pattern is bringing in a lot of forest fire smoke from widespread blazes in central Quebec and air quality has been poor at times. No new work has been done in the thread files or on the attached excel files, but in both cases, all required data updates and file maintenance have been done. A project for the next quarter of the year will be to provide seasonal data for NYC which is not yet shown in the thread. (this data does exist for Toronto) ... files are stored so that they will open at site navigation info panels. Those will guide you to the various data blocks available -- these are large and complex files with a lot of information. Thiis is a link to the excel files posted on Net-weather (cannot post them here, too large) ... http://www.community.netweather.tv/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-182-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2022/page/4/#comment-4863512

June 1 (87 NYC) and 2 (91 NYC) were hot days -- in the past, when NYC has started June with 90s on either or both of 1st and 2nd, the longest wait after June 2nd (whether it hit 90 on 1st or 2nd or both) for another 90 degree reading was 44 days to July 16th in 1918. It was very cool most of that period (record low max 59F on June 23rd, and then turned very hot from mid-July to mid-August (Aug 7, 1918 104F all-time August record), also 95F, 98F, 95F on July 21st to 23rd, and 96F on Aug 6th and 14th. In 1895 there were record high values May 31st to June 3rd (96, 96, 96, 95) and then no more 90s until July 7th; it was 95F on July 21 but even so, the summer was rather cool in general after mid-June but more record heat occurred in mid to late September (20th to 23rd all record highs 93, 95, 95, 97). In 1912 (86 June 1st) a max of 91 on June 2nd was not surpassed until June 29th (94F). July 8-11 had mid-90s, 16th hit 94F, after which the summer was cool/average. Most other cases, if they didn't continue hot for the following week, returned to heat around mid-June. Only two other years exceeded 89 on both June 1 and 2, namely 1895 and 1918 (94, 91). In 1925, 91 and 88 were followed by five very hot days, 94, 99, 99, 98, 96. (June 4-7 all records) ... Following that heat wave, the next 90+ reading in 1925 was 90 on June 10th and there were two more 90+ days in June, four in July and two in August but on the whole it was a rather cool summer, an average September and a very cool October followed. Nine years hit 90+ on only the 1st, and four others on only the 2nd, with 2023 making that five. Thus a total of 16 of 155 years of record have seen a 90+ reading on 1st-2nd and that increases to 19 for 1st-3rd. There were only three years to hit 90+ on June 3rd without having also registered 90+ on 1st or 2nd: 1871 (90 3rd, 90 4th), 1936 (90 3rd) and we all know what happened after a rather cool June in 1936, and then 1943 had 92, 95 on 3rd-4th, with several more hot spells that month, including 99, 96, 98 on 25th to 27th. In 1877 it was 89 on June 2nd and that summer did not return to any warmer reading until July 26th (90). August of that summer was a bit warmer than July. Other outcomes: 90 June 1, 1879 (82 2nd) was followed by 90, 91 on June 27th and 28th. 93 June 2, 1919 (74 1st) led into a warm week (92, 95 on June 3rd-4th, next 90+ was July 1st leading into a blistering 97, 99, 98 interval July 3-5. Sep 8-9 hit 93 and the summer was variable in general but often quite warm. Not quite a direct hit but June 2-6 1923 all around 90 (89, 88, 89, 92, 91) followed by record heat 20th to 26th -- most of these have been surpassed (98, 96, 82, 86, 93, 97, 94). More heat followed at intervals in July (99, 98 on 20th and 21st) but end of July and most of August were rather cool in 1923. In 1937 June 1st was 93F (2nd 79) and it next hit 90 on June 25th, with frequent 90s in July and August. (98, 100, 100 July 8-10) 1951 another near miss of 89, 83 to start June, and the next reading above 89 was 90F on July 15th. June 2nd 1961 (90) was soon followed by a record 96F on 13th. June 1st 1962 (92) was followed by four days in the low 90s June 16th to 19th. June 1st 1986 (90) was followed by 91F on June 23rd and 98, 98 July 6-7. June 1st 1987 (93) was followed by 94F on June 16th and 96F on 20th. June 1st 1988 (90) was first followed by 90, 93, 96, 96, 92 12th to 16th and 97, 98 June 21st, 22nd. Lots of heat followed all summer. June 1st 1989 (91) and 2nd (89) next returned to 90s on June 26th and 27th (90, 92). June 2nd 2000 (90) was followed by 92F on 10th and 11th. The rest of the summer was very cool, especially late July. 2007 another near miss (91 May 31, and 88, 89 June 1-2), first 90+ reading after that was 91 on June 26th. It was another rather cool summer with no readings above 92F. June 1st 2011 (90) was followed by 94, 95 on 8th and 9th. June 1st 2013 (90) and 2nd (88) were followed by 92, 91 on June 24th-25th. Since 2013 and before 2023, the earliest 90+ reading in June has been 92 on 6th, 2021. A general note would be that years with early June hot days often see severe heat in July and August, but not always. ___________________ At the other end of the scale, June 1-5 1945 had no reading above 63 F on 2nd, and 58, 53, 52, 55 on the other dates were all record low maxima. Traces of snow fell in upstate NY and southern ON in that cold spell with some 1-2" lake effect noted. 2015 also started June very cool with highs of 58, 55, 70, 65, 70.

LAST DAY FOR ENTRIES or EDITS (deadline 06z) _ UPDATE _ DEADLINE EXTENSION FOR EDITS BUT NO NEW ENTRIES Please check my recent post about duplicate entries (thanks to Olafminesaw for spotting them) ... I will extend the deadline by 48h to 06z June 7 for one category of edit, namely, to change any duplicate entry. New entries not allowed in that extension period. To be fair, anyone else can edit any submitted forecast. You would lose your original order of entry except if you change a duplicate forecast by one element and one number. Late edits of duplicates cannot become duplicates of any entries already made unless you specify a willingness to take an order of entry at your new forecast position. Note my comment yesterday that order of entry also determines rank of similar scores from different count forecasts. (e.g., 16/8/3 will score the same for 16/7/3 and 16/8/2, etc). Example, you change 14 7 4 to 14 7 5, no order of entry adjustment. You change 14 7 4 to 16 10 5, order of entry adjustment applies. New entries above note, I will add you to the table of entries in a later edit and move the table of forecasts to a June 7 posting after all forecast activity has ended. The count is already 2/0/0 (on its way to 19/12/4) __________________ If your entry duplicates only an "expert" forecast (e.g. CSU) that does not require any action, your rank will not be affected.

I reviewed the info you provided and all details are correct, so I have posted the entries as they appear now, to give entrants an easier path to making adjustments if they wish. So far, none of the "other" forecasts from off-site happen to overlap. Will review the situation again late Sunday near deadline and perhaps contact anyone who still has a "later duplicate" entry. Earlier duplicates do not need to take any action. (nor do later duplicates if you don't mind the restriction on eventual ranking) Another point not made earlier, identical scores from different forecasts will be ranked by order of entry.

Posting a bit early to allow entrants to review duplicate forecasts and see the full range of forecasts from other locations. Table of entries for 2023 Seasonal Tropical Contest _ number in brackets after forecaster name is the order of entry, applies to last revision or edit only _ Note: Entries are being received from American Weather Forum (AM), Net-weather (NW) and Boards.ie weather (IE). Contest will be ranked at end of season in two sets, one for American Weather Forum entrants only, and one for all entrants. Three additional entries are shown for NOAA, UKMO, and CSU. These will be scored and ranked but those ranks will not bump any forecasters down in the contest ranks. Scoring system: Start from 100 points. Deduct average of error and error squared for hurricanes and majors. Deduct 50% of same for storms. Example. For outcome 13/7/4. forecast of 15/8/1 loses (a) 50% of (2+4)/2 for storm error, 1.5 deduction; (b) (1+1)/2 for hurricane count error, 1.0 deduction; (c) (3+9)/2 for major hurricane count error, 6.0 deduction. Total deductions 8.5, score 100-8.5 = 91.5. This system gives more weight to accuracy of the prediction of stronger storms and reduces the chance of a contest-wide score degradation if there is an unusual number of named storms. Any total score calculation below 0 is scored at zero points. In past contest years, scores of 98 to 100 have often won the contest. The table of entries is ordered by count of storms, then hurricanes, and majors. forum _FORECASTER _________________ storms _ hurr _ major IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ____________________21 _____11 _____ 8 AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) _________21 _____11 _____ 5 --- ___ UK Met Office __________________ 20 ____ 11 _____ 5 AM _ Roger Smith (19) _________________ 19 ____ 12 _____ 4 AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) __________ 19 ____ 11 _____ 5 IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) _____________________18 _____ 9 _____ 4 AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _______________17 _____10 _____ 4 NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) __________17 _____10 _____ 3 NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) _______ 16 _____11 _____ 5 NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) __________16 _____10 _____ 3 IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) __________________16 _____ 9 _____ 5 AM _ Ineedsnow (44) __________________ 16 _____ 9 _____ 4 AM _ wkd (4) ___________________________ 16 _____ 7 _____ 4 AM _ solidicewx (28) ___________________ 16 _____ 7 _____ 4 AM _ yotaman (31) ______________________16 _____ 7 _____ 3 AM _ hotair (18) _________________________16 _____ 6 _____ 3 AM _ wxdude64 (15) ___________________ 16 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) _____________ 16 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) ________________ 15 _____ 8 _____ 4 AM _ diggiebot (12) _____________________15 _____ 7 _____ 3 AM _ Torch Tiger (23) __________________ 15 _____ 7 _____ 3 --- ___ CSU _____________________________ 15 _____ 7 _____ 3 (updated June 1st) --- ___ TWC _____________________________15 _____ 7 _____ 3 AM _ Stebo (26) ________________________ 15 _____ 7 _____ 2 AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) ______________ 15 _____ 6 _____ 2 AM _ Marsman (14) ____________________ 15 _____ 4 _____ 2 --- ___ NOAA median ___________________14.5 ____7.0 ____2.5 AM _ JConsor (13) ______________________14 _____ 8 _____ 4 AM _ nvck (45) _________________________ 14 _____ 8 _____ 3 IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _____________________ 14 _____ 7 _____ 3 AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _____________ 14 _____ 6 _____ 3 AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) _______________ 14 _____ 5 _____ 3 AM _ Yoda (40) _________________________ 13 _____ 7 _____ 4 AM _ Superstorm93 (22) _______________ 13 _____ 7 _____ 2 _______ Consensus _____________________ 13.8 ___ 6.8 ___ 2.8 AM _ George BM (41) ___________________ 13 _____ 6 _____ 3 AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _____________ 13 _____ 6 _____ 2 AM _ North hills wx (24) _________________ 13 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ Newman (30) _____________________ 13 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ Alfoman (25) ______________________ 13 _____ 5 _____ 1 AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) ________________ 13 _____ 5 _____ 1 NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _____________________12 _____11 _____ 1 AM _ rclab (43) _________________________ 12 _____ 8 _____ 3 AM _ Rhino 16 (2) _______________________ 12 _____ 7 _____ 3 AM _ crownweather (11) ________________ 12 _____ 6 _____ 2 AM _ Cat Lady (7) ______________________ 12 _____ 5 _____ 3 AM _ RJay (17) __________________________12 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ cheese007 (35) ___________________12 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ Eyewall (27) ______________________ 12 _____ 4 _____ 2 AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) __________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ mob1 (8) __________________________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ Malacka 11 (29) ___________________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ Matthew70 (32) __________________ 11 _____ 4 _____ 2 AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan (16) ___10.5 ___4.5 ____ 2 NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) __________10 _____ 4 _____ 2 AM _ cnimbus (6) _______________________ 10 _____ 7 _____ 2 AM _ GaWx (21) _________________________ 10 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ The Iceman (39) __________________ 10 _____ 4 _____ 1 AM _ Olafminesaw (9) ___________________ 7 _____ 3 _____ 2 ____________________________________ 54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts)

Well I truly dislike imposing any late penalties especially on hard working forum-asset posters, and I tried to contact RJay to avoid any significant bites but found message box full (I think) ... anyway, contact me if the penalty seems out of line (in the past few months I have basically been going with 1% per half day late which is more lenient than the older regime). In any case, here are tables of entries for both contests. I could also mention there's a tropical seasonal contest in the tropical forum, some of you are already entered in that, and deadline for it is June 5th 06z. Welcome Terpeast, I believe it's a first time entry in our contest. I wish StormchaserChuck would enter all months as his average score is pretty good. Rhino16 joined up in March and has been entering each month. I also continue to hope we will see a resurgence of the contest participation to levels of yesteryear. But it is what it is, and I am happy to continue, I suspect some of you intimidate the potential entrants with your prowess (and some of us do not) ... (1) Table of forecasts for June 2023 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Roger Smith _________________ +2.8 _+2.5 _+3.5 __+3.0 _+1.5 _+0.7___+1.7 _+0.3 _+2.2 wxdude64 ___________________ +1.6 _+2.1 _+2.3 ___+1.9 _-0.7 _+0.2 __ -2.1 _ -1.3 _+1.8 Tom __________________________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +0.8 __+0.9 _+0.4 _+1.1___+0.4 _+1.1 _+1.1 so_whats_happening ________ +1.1 _ +0.8 _+0.8 __+1.8 _+0.5 _-0.6 __ -0.2 _-0.6 _+1.5 RJay _______ (-2%) ___________+1.0 _+2.0 _+2.9 __+2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 _+2.0 Scotty Lightning _____________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxallannj _____________________+1.0 _ +0.8 _+1.0 __+0.2 _-1.2 _-2.0 __ -1.2 _-0.5 _+2.2 ___ Consensus _______________ +1.0 _ +0.8 _+0.8 __+0.5_+0.4 _+0.8 __ 0.0 _-0.4_ +1.5 Rhino 16 _____________________ +0.9 _+0.3 _+0.4 __+0.7 _+0.7 _+0.4 __-0.3 _-0.4 _+0.7 BKViking _____________________+0.7 _+0.9 _+0.5 __+0.2 _-0.2 _+1.5 __+0.8 _+1.6 _+1.4 hudsonvalley21 ______________+0.7 _+0.4 _+0.6 __+1.3 _+1.8 _+1.0 __ +1.4 _+1.9 _+1.1 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 _____________ -0.1 _ +0.5 _+0.8 __ +0.5 _-0.5 _-0.2 __-3.2 _-1.5 _+2.0 Terpeast _____________________-0.3 _+0.8 _+1.2 __ +1.0 _-0.6 _-1.6 __ +0.5 _-0.8 _+2.0 RodneyS _____________________-0.3 _+0.1 _-0.5 ___-0.5 __ 0.0 _+0.8 __-0.4 _-2.1 _+0.7 ___ persistence (May 2023) __ -2.2 _ -0.5 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.7 ____ +2.0 _ +1.3 _ +3.4 _____________________ warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded ... Normal is colder for NYC, SEA. Consensus is median (ranked 7) of 13 forecasts. (2) Table of forecasts for Summer 2023 Maximum FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Rhino 16 _____________________105 __ 95 __ 98 ____101 _ 106 _ 101 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 96 Scotty Lightning _____________103 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 104 _ 109 ___ 94 _ 119 __ 90 Roger Smith _________________ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 108 ___103 _ 119 __ 98 so_whats_happening ________ 101 __ 101 __ 98 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 100 __ 101 _ 122 __ 97 RJay _________________________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 101 _ 105 ___100 _ 119 __ 97 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 101 __ 98 __ 95 ____100 _ 102 _ 105 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 93 DonSutherland1 ______________101 __ 96 __ 96 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 103 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92 ___ Consensus _______________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 98 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 95 wxdude64 ___________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 ___102 _ 100 _ 105 ___104 _ 119 __ 96 BKViking _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 97 __ 97 ___99 __ 100 _ 120 __ 95 Tom ___________________________ 99 __ 98 __ 97 ___101 __ 99 __ 103 ___97 _ 119 __ 97 wxallannj ______________________98 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 94 __ 98 _ 102 __ 101 _ 116 __ 97 RodneyS ______________________98 __ 96 __ 95 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 92 Terpeast ______________________ 96 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 95 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 99 ___________________ For this contest, consensus is mean of 13 forecasts.

A few days late but no doubt the hottest days of 2023 are some distance away ... so as always, predict the highest temperatures to be expected this summer at the four airports: DCA IAD BWI RIC and I will start the ball rolling with 102, 102, 103 and 103. Contest deadline 06z June 17 (which is Friday night). Tie-breaker details in a post in thread (lowest errors break ties, order of entry the last level separating ties)

I recall a lot of forest fires in ON and QC in spring 1977. But it is unusual to have this many at any time of year, summer tends to be fairly moist across the boreal forest regions north of the lower lakes. Persistent high pressure over central to northern QC or north of Ontario quite unlikely past mid-June as the storm track almost always energizes across inland northern Canada in summer. So I would not expect this regime to persist, it may morph into a persistent high closer to New England and New York state if it doesn't collapse entirely. It has been anomalously warm in north-central Canada since April so I am thinking there won't be very frequent below normal outbreaks into the Midwest at any point, and if the Midwest runs very warm, hard to avoid at least a moderate positive anomaly in the inland northeast U.S. A few months in the past have seen much higher anomalies as far east as Toronto compared to NYC. Both July 1916 and 1921 were much warmer relative to normal in Toronto than in NYC. There's one place a ridge can set up, around MI-IN-KY-TN that spills heat into the lower lakes and OV but if persistent low pressure can form near 37N 72W then NYC can be alternating between subdued heat and cool, cloudy and sometimes wet intervals. (this was not the case in 2009 when a larger northeast flow extended well inland).

1949 had a very dry spring and early summer, a hot June and more heat in July and August, cooled off somewhat in September, and returned to significant warmth in October. Late November was briefly cold but the winter of 1949-50 was among the mildest on record.

Wow, this contest may require an assistant director at this rate. There will also be about a dozen along from two other forums in UK and Ireland. I will rank them in but issue two ranking lists at end of play so you can see how you did against American Weather folk and the somewhat larger global field. Expert forecasts will be scored but ranked outside your ranks. As I've been saying, you can edit away to end of Sunday June 4 without posting about it, as I have not collected the forecasts yet. FAQ 1. January storm ... does it count? Yes, the contest asks you to predict the count at end of year. 2. December storms ... do they count? Yes, same as above. 3. Tropical depressions not reaching TS status, not named, not in the count -- these do not count unless re-analyzed before Dec 31st. 4. Storms that have two active life cycles. They count as one as per NOAA protocols. 5. Prizes? Yes, promotion to PGA tour. You must also excel at golf and qualify some other way. So it's not a real prize. 6. Prestige? I think so, if you can beat 50 people and the recognized experts, that says something. 7. Same forecast as somebody else ... up to you to check for this, earliest post ranks higher. 8. Medicanes, South Atlantic canes ... no, and no. SCORING SYSTEM will be same as past two years, explained with table of forecasts in a few days. Basically, you lose fewer points for errors in storm count than in hurricane and major counts (this after that season with the 30 count that gave almost everyone a negative score). Decimal forecasts are allowed and are scored from their precise values.

Years with significant heat in early June sometimes see a return to that heat on several more occasions (e.g., 1919, 1934) but another outcome is a rather cool mid-summer and more heat in September (1895, 1925). I suspect this will turn into a relatively hot summer with a few cool and wet intervals, in this climate, harder to avoid east coast ridge building over the anomalously warm NAtl. It is also quite warm out here and pushing up a bit higher each day to mid-week. My idea for the summer pattern in general is that it may be prone to severe heat waves in central states and the western interior, and that the east will alternate between near average and hot spells with a bit of a westerly rather than south-westerly flow bias which can mean a rather dry regime, but no doubt with a few interruptions.

Four Seasons contest 2022-23 __ Spring segment Each season is scored 10 points for high total score, then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 for 2nd to 7th, and 1 point for anyone else who entered a minimum of 2/3. FORECASTER _________ Winter TOTAL __ Points ____ MAR __ APR __ MAY ___ TOTAL __ Spring Points ___ TOTAL points RJay _________________________1879 _____ 10 _________ 481 ___ 640 ___ 640 ____ 1761 ____ 5 _________ 15 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 1675 _____ 4 ___________476 ___ 648 ___ 700 ____ 1824 ____ 10 ________ 14 ___ Consensus _______________1682 _____ 4.3 ________ 447 ___ 605 ___ 720 ____ 1772 ____6.9 ________ 11.2 DonSutherland1 _____________ 1722 _____ 6 __________ 513 ___ 592 ___ 656 ____ 1761 ____ 5 _________ 11 wxallannj ____________________ 1699 _____ 5 __________ 477 ___ 588 ___ 700 ____ 1765 ____ 6 _________ 11 RodneyS ____________________ 1760 ______7 __________ 463 ___ 528 ___ 552 ____ 1543 ____ 1 __________8 wxdude64 __________________1518 ______ 1 ____________465 ___ 652 ___ 656 ____ 1773 ____ 7 __________8 Roger Smith ________________ 1626 _____ 3 ___________ 271 ___ 552 ___ 586 ____ 1409 ____ 1 __________ 4 Scotty Lightning ___________ 1147 ______ 1 ____________502 ___ 562 ___ 612 ____ 1676 ____ 3 __________ 4 so_whats_happening _______ 1620 _____ 2 ___________ -- --___ -- --___ -- --____ -- -- ____ 0 __________ 2 BKViking ___________________ 1576 ______ 1 ___________ 355 ___ 537 ___ 688 ____ 1580 ____ 1 __________ 2 Tom ________________________ 1545 ______ 1 ___________ -- --___ 591 ___ 690 ____ 1281 ____ 1 __________ 2 Rhino 16 ____________________ -- -- _____ 0 ____________ 389 ___ 630 ___ 656 ____ 1675 ____ 2 _________ 2 ___ Normal _________________ 1076 _____ 1 _____________ 422 ___ 538 ___ 610 ____ 1570 ____ 1 __________ 2 StormchaserChuck _________ 674 (1/3) _ 0 ____________-- --___ 580 ___ 632 ____ 1212 ____ 1 __________ 1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.8 _+2.5 _+3.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _+0.7 ___+1.7 _ +0.3 _ +2.2 101 __ 102 __ 100 ____ 101 _ 102 _ 108 ___ 103 _ 119 _ 98

If May ends with 1.28" rain it will be 13th driest of 155 (1869-2023) at NYC, the top 20 dry Mays are: Rank ___ Year ____ Prec _01 ____ 1887 ____ 0.34 _02 ____ 1903 ____ 0.50 _03 ____ 1964 ____ 0.57 _04 ____ 1880 ____ 0.62 _05 ____ 1905 ____ 0.72 _06 ____ 1939 ____ 0.89 _07 ____ 1877 ____ 0.95 _08 ____ 1935 ____ 1.05 _09 ____ 1899 ____ 1.09 _10 ____ 1944 ____ 1.18 _11 ____ 1911 _____ 1.25 _12 ____ 1962 ____ 1.26 _13? ___ 2023 ____ 1.28 _t14 _ 1875, 1959 _ 1.33 _16 ____ 1902 ____ 1.35 _17 ____ 1987 ____ 1.45 _18 ____ 1909 ____ 1.47 _19 ____ 2005 ____ 1.48 _20 ____ 1910 ____ 1.49 (21) ____ 1993 ____ 1.56 Median value (rank 78) is 3.56"

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide tropical seasonal contest in the tropical forum, deadline end of June 4th. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

A reminder to the usual crew that June temperature forecast contest deadline approaches. Also a general notice to NYC members that a seasonal hurricane season contest is open for entries to June 4th in the tropical forum. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Please note, forum season prediction contest closes end of day June 4th (06z June 5, 2023). NOAA forecast is 12-17, 5-9, 1-4 or median 14.5, 7.0, 2.5. UK Met Office not buying into El Nino suppression and predict 20, 11, 5. UA also higher than expert consensus at 19, 9, 5. (I am saying 19, 12, 4 but not an expert) CSU more conservative at 13, 6, 2. TWC saying 15, 7, 3. The contest is here in this sub-forum. I have invited weather nerds from UK and Irish weather forums to enter also.