Roger Smith

Complete list of 3" daily rainfalls in July at NYC, and also 3.00" two-day totals. (the 3.0" list does not include any slightly lower values that might occur using a day on the other side of a heavy rainfall) Notice that many of the entries are towards the end of July. Note the 3.0" daily list continues with a few near-3.0" values to balance the entries. RANK ____ Amount __ Date ______________ 2d amount __ Dates _ 01 ______ 3.75" _____ 23, 1997 ___________ 4.62" _____ 23-24 1997 (3.75" + 0.87") _ 02 ______ 3.56" _____30, 1960*___________ 4.37" _____ 26-27 2000 (3.24" + 1.13") _ 03 ______ 3.47" _____29, 1980* __________t3 4.33" ____ 8-9 2021^ _ 04 ______ 3.24" _____26, 2000 __________ t3 4.33" ____ 5-6 1901 (3.07" + 1.26") _ 05 ______ 3.16" ______13, 1972*__________ 3.64" _______ 29-30 1971 (0.64" +3.00") _ 5.87" 4d total July 29 - Aug 1 _t06 ______ 3.13" ______ 7, 1984 ___________ 6 3.56" _____ 30 1960 (29, 31 dry) _t06 ______ 3.13" _____ 17, 1995 ___________ 7 3.36" _____ 17-18 1995 (3.13" + 0.23") _ 08 ______ 3.11" ______28, 1913 ___________ 3.30" _______ 10-11 2020 (2.54" + 0.76") _ 09 ______ 3.07" ______ 5, 1901 ___________ 3.19" ________ 3-4 1967 (2.08" + 1.11") _ 10 ______ 3.06" _____ 28, 1902*__________ t10 3.14" _____ 6-7 1984 (0.01" + 3.13") _ 11 ______ 3.00" _____ 30, 1971 ___________ t10 3.14" ____ 28-29 1913 (3.11" + 0.03") _t12 ______ 2.91" ______ 17, 1877**_________12 3.12" _______13-14 1897 (2.29" + 0.83") _t12 ______ 2.91" _____ 29, 1872*__________ 13 3.09" ______ 11-12 1937 (0.41" + 2.68") _ 14 ______ 2.80" ______ 3, 1930* _________ 3.06" _________ 28 1902 (27, 29 dry) _ 15 ______ 2.65" _____ 27, 1889** ________ 3.00" _________ 30-31 1918 (2.00" + 1.00") ______________ also including dates in July and August 3.99" 31st-1st 1889 (2.29" + 1.70"), and 3.71" June 30 - July 1 1984 (3.07" + 0.64") _________________ would rank 6 and 7 if included, and expand total list to 17 entries plus next 3 below for top 20. ______________ missing out by 0.01" was 22-23 1946 (2.99" from 0.87" + 2.12") and 20-21 1988 (2.99" from 1.28" + 1.71") also 2.91" 3-4 1978 (1.72"+1.19") ________________________________________ * No measurable rainfall on days before and after these entries, meaning they have the same representation in 3.0" list, or no representation if below 3.0" like 29th, 1872; ** Others have measurable amounts on one or both sides of a heavy amount, only the larger of the two totals is shown for 2d amounts (would have included any nearly equal but there were none). 17th 1877 added only 0.01" so does not make the second list. ^ Total from 2.27" and 2.06" both daily records. (8-9 July 2021)

Today's record rainfall at NYC is only 1.50" (1871). 1926 had 1.38". Tomorrow's record is 3.13" from 1995 two days after a two-day hot spell (96 14th, 102 15th). To show how variable regional rainfall can be, I noticed that LGA had 3.53" on July 15th 1997 for a daily record but NYC had only 0.17" on that date (max 97, min 77 also). But NYC did record a daily record 3.75" on July 23, 1997.

Another weather event to add to the historial weather file, on this night in 1995, after a day of record heat, a derecho suddenly formed over south central Ontario. At 0100h EDT (July 15) there was nothing on the map but a dry windshift line near southeast Georgian Bay to west of Toronto. By 0200h storms had formed along that boundary and by 0300h a full-blown derecho with embedded F2 tornado was bearing down on my former home location of Lakefield, Ontario which is northeast of Peterborough. It was so hot that I had not fallen asleep and became aware of continuous lightning west of the town at 0250h. By 0300h a severe gust front had blown in with what appeared to be 80 mph gusts, large trees were bending precariously and the continual lightning and thunder was unlike any previous severe storm in my experience. It took abut half an hur for this to blow through and I believe the derecho persisted through the night and following day into eastern Ontario, southern Quebec and upstate NY and New England. The next day we became aware of tornado damage in a streak that ended about 3 miles southwest of my location, and that tornado did considerable damage around Stony Lake north of Peterborough. Family members who were camping 100 miles north of us said they had also had a severe storm at 0300h and had abandoned a tent for the relative safety of a car, so it was quite the line squall and as far as I could determine, entirely unpredicted and not well shown on existing guidance (it was thought that the hot, dry spell would continue without the minor detail of the worst severe storm to hit Ontario since the May 31 1985 F4 tornado in Barrie. That one also continued on to near Peterborough and also lifted off the ground 3 miles from my residence (which was then in Peterborough. Not often you see continuous lightning, it's quite the thing. We were very lucky our house was not blown apart by that storm. (added trivia, calendar same for 1995 and 2023, as any 28 years without a missing leap year like 1900 will work out to same calendar dates, so the storm was on a Friday night.)

First report on anomalies and projections ... ______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (11) ____ (10d anom) ________ +1.3 _ +2.6 _ -0.9 ___ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +1.3 ____ -5.2 _ +4.6 _ +2.7 (21) ____ (20d anom) _______ +0.9 _ +1.9 _ +1.6 __ -0.7 _ +1.9 _ +3.1 _____ -2.5 _ +6.7 _ +2.6 (11) ____ (p27 anom) ________ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ -0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 _____ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 (21) ____ (p31 anom) ________ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 _____ 0.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.5 (31) ____ (final anom) _______ +0.6 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 __ +0.3 _ +2.2 _ +2.7 ____ -1.2 _ +7.2 _ +1.4 (11) _ Projections are based on assumed near average to +1.0 trends in east, and +2.0 to +3.0 in west. DEN will probably edge up all of July after a cool start. Not sure if it can get to 0.0 but some more anomalous warm conditions are indicated. (21) _ Projections are now based on a regime of +1.0 east to +4.0 west, little change for most locations but a continued drift upwards for DEN. Preliminary scores based on these estimates will be posted later today. (29) _ Phoenix remains +7.2 so that will probably need to be scored from max 60. DEN is creeping ever upwards, may make it to -1.0. SEA will finish closer to +2.0. (31) _ All final anomalies now posted (1st 1030z) and scoring is now based on final values as shown. Confirmed anomalies are underlined. Updated seasonal max to date (7/31) _ 97 _ 93 _ 91 ___ 93 __ 98 __ 103 _____ 98 __ 119 __ 91 (future updates of seasonal max will migrate to August contest thread)

1936 has shown up the past two days in the historical info from Sacrus (always enjoy reading it) ... but before the 9th the heat had already set in further west and I don't think it was noted that a location in ND hit 122F or 50C, probably the highest temperature recorded outside of desert areas in the US. We had 120 to 121 F at Lytton BC in the 2021 heat dome (and that was before the town ignited and burned to the ground). Also not in the reports, Toronto had three consecutive days (8th-10th) with 105F, breaking the all-time record of 103F set on July 3rd, 1911 there. Those remain the four warmest days of record at Toronto, one day (Aug 13, 1918) has hit 102F and two have reached 101F (Aug 7, 1918 and Aug 25, 1948). Since 100F on Sep 2, 1953 the only 100F reading at Toronto's downtown location was 101F in July 2011. It was 99F in July 1988. The upper air charts for July 1936 must have been spectacular, I would imagine a 602 or 603 high over Missouri to North Carolina at the height of the heat wave (it backed off a bit after July 13th although the severe heat continued over much of the central plains region all month). The heat returned briefly around August 3rd to 5th but in general the second half of July in the eastern states was cooler and quite dry as the upper ridge must have retrogressed somewhat allowing high pressure to build down from Quebec.

Top hot fourth of July maxima at NYC: 102 _ 1949 99 _ 1919 98 _ 1966 97 _ 1911, 1955 96 _ 1898, 1999, 2002, 2010 (today's top values were 103 1966, 100 in 1898 and 1911, 99 in 1949, 97 in 1919 and 95 in 1955, 2002. Record high minimum for 4th is 81F in 2002, breaking 79F from 1999. Before that the record was 78F tied by 1876, 1908, 1974 and 1983. 1966 had 77F.

Table of forecasts for July 2023 ______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA RJay _________________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___+2.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.5 ___ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 DonSutherland1 _____________ +1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.7 ___+0.6 _ +1.0 _ +1.2 ____ -0.8 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 wxallannj _____________________+1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.7 ____ -1.2 _ +1.2 _ +0.6 Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___+0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 BKViking _____________________ +1.0 _ +0.9 _ +0.9 ___+1.1 _ +0.9 _ +2.0 ___ +2.2 _ +2.2 _ +1.4 ___ Consensus _______________ +0.9 _ +0.9 _ +0.7 ___+0.7 _ +0.9 _ +1.6 ___ +1.0 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 Tom __________________________ +0.7 _ +0.9 _ +0.5 ___+1.1 _ +0.6 _ +1.2 ___ +1.1 _ +0.3 _ +0.6 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +0.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.1 ___ +0.7 _ +0.9 _ +1.0 ___ +0.8 _ +0.7 _ +1.2 Roger Smith __________________+0.3 _ +0.3 _ +0.1 ___+0.4 _ -0.7 _ +1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ___ Normal _____________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _____________________ -0.4 _ +0.3 _ +0.1 ___ -1.3 _ -0.2 _ +2.0 ___ +1.2 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 wxdude64 ____________________-0.7 _ -0.2 _ -0.2 ___ +0.2 _ +0.7 _ +1.8 ___ -1.4 _ +1.9 _ +0.4 - - - - - ___ Persistence (June 2023) __-2.2 _-2.0 _ -2.1 ____ +0.2 _ -1.3 _ +2.1 ___ -4.0 _ -2.0 __ 0.0 ____________________________ warmest and coldest forecasts color coded, Normal is colder than all forecasts for IAH, equal for SEA.

I believe May-June total rainfall at NYC (2.90") was third lowest in 155 tries, behind 1880 (1.76") and 1965 (2.85"). (I realize regional amounts are quite variable) Next few dry May-June couplets were in 1993 (3.05"), 1885 (3.18"), 1964 (3.24"), 1899 (3.35"), 2020 (3.41"), 1949 (3.43" with only 0.02" June, driest month on record), 1986 (3.54") 1877 (3.75"), 1891 (3.93") and 1875 (4.05"). The wettest May-June was 1989 with 19.03", 2013 had 18.10" and 1972 had 17.69" in those two months.

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JAN-JUN 2023 ---- >>>> === === Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. Scoring now closer with Don moving into lead, RJay falls back to second, wxallannj and hudsonvalley21 exchange 3rd and 4th with RodneyS moving ahead of wxdude64 into fifth. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS DonSutherland1 ___________ 346 _314 _ 356 __1016 __410 _434 _398 __1242 __2258 __359 _386_442 __1187 ____3445 RJay _______________________348 _344 _ 335 __1027 __459 _368 _380__ 1207 __2234 __315 _355 _443 __1113 ____3347 wxallannj __________________ 333 _346 _359 __1038__469 _402 _340__1211 __ 2249 __329 _388 _330 __1047 ____3296 ___ Consensus _____________309 _318 _ 367 __994 __ 423 _348 _377 __1148 __2142 _ 325 _370 _430 __1125 ____3267 hudsonvalley21 ____________313 _322 _ 381 __1016 __ 434 _351 _371 __ 1156 __2172 __292 _338 _437 __1067 ____3239 RodneyS __________________ 316 _314 _346 __ 976 __ 281 _343 _392 __1016 __1992 _ 395 _ 386 _426 __1207____ 3199 wxdude64 _________________324 _321 _324 __ 969 __ 319 _384 _322 __1025 __1994 __395 _332 _406 __1133 ____3127 BKViking ___________________318 _314 _351 __ 983 __393 _340 _375 __1108 __ 2091 __291 _ 276 _ 312 __ 879 ____2970 Scotty Lightning ___________249 _276 _328 __ 853 __373 _279 _358 __1010 __1863 __266 _264 _344 __ 874 ____2737 Roger Smith _______________ 268 _236 _264 __ 768 __285 _253 _346 __ 884 __1652 __275 _302 _430 __1007____2659 ... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for all below this point in the table ... Tom (5/6) __________________259 _266 _289 __ 814 __262 _294 _350 __ 906 __1720 __288 _300 _345 __ 933 _____2653 (3184) ___ Normal _________________204 _236 _268 __ 708 __316 _302 _300 __ 918 __1626 __298 _ 310 _344 __952 ____ 2578 Rhino16 (4/6) ______________212 _228 _250 ___ 690 ___310 _288 _216 ___814 __1504 __209 _212 _288 __ 709 ____ 2213 (3320) Stormchaser Chuck (3/6) __201 _238 _196 ___ 635 ___257 _132 _146 ___535 __ 1170 __238 _240 _238 __ 716 ____1886 (3772) so_whats_happening (3/6) _124 _126 _ 180 ___ 430 __ 169 _105 _180 ___ 454 ___884 __122 __168 _218 __ 508 ____1392 (2784) Terpeast (1/6) ______________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 __ 146 ____ 482 (2892) rainsucks (1/6) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 (2736) Persistence ________________243 _224 _316 __ 783 ___ 280 _ 311 _ 334 __ 925 ___ 1708 __ 148 _ 344 _ 298 __ 790 ____ 2498 _______________________________________________________ Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*____2*____0____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2*___1 ____2 _ Jan,Mar RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___2**____2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___ 1 ___0 ____0 wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____2**___1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1* _ May (t) ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May hudsonvalley21 ____________0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____1* ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1* _ May (t) RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____1 _ Jun wxdude64 _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Apr BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___0 ___ 0 ____0 Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 Tom (5/6) _________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 Rhino16 (4/6) ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Stormchaser Chuck (3/6) __2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb so_whats_happening (3/6) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Terpeast (1/6) _____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 rainsucks (1/6) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 47 of 54 forecasts qualify, 26 of them for warmest, and 21 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8 ... 11 of 47 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those ten are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun ___ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 11-1 ______10.5 - 1.0 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- __ 9-3 ______ 8.5 - 3.0 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 __ 9-1 ______ 8.5 - 0 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 8-1 ______ 7.5 - 1.0 Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __4-2 ______ 4.0 - 1.5 ___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 __ 4-1 _______ 4.0 - 1.0 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 __ 3-1 ______ 2.5 - 0.5 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0__ 3-0 ______ 2.0 - 0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0__3-2 ______ 2.0 - 1.0 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 __ 2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 ___1-0 _______ 1.0 - 0 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- __ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 __ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 __ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 __ 0-1 _______ 0.0 - 1 ===========================================

+0.3 _ +0.3 _ +0.1 _ +0.4 _ -0.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

One thing to add to the historical summary, in 2021 the Pac NW and BC heat dome was at its worst on June 30, highs in southern BC and much of WA state, parts of OR and ID around 110 to 120 F. Where I live, it was 112 F which is crazy hot considering we are several thousand feet higher than places in TX and a lot further north, and matching their current heat records. The worst part of the heat dome was June 26 to July 3, 2021. We then had smoke episodes one of which was worse than what you're suffering from, by early August of 2021.

Coldest months of the 21st century compared to all-time (1869-2023) NYC data with ranks (list includes all below long-term median which is now 78th coldest or ties straddling 78th coldest-warmest in 155 years or 77th warmest-coldest July to Dec): Jan 2004 t8 coldest, 2003 25th coldest, 2009 28th, 2014 t34, 2015 t49, 2022 t53, 2000,2005 t66, 2018 71st coldest. Feb 2015 3rd coldest, 2007 22nd coldest, 2003 41st, 2014 t57. 2010 77th coldest. Mar 2014 t43 coldest, 2015 48th coldest, 2017 t55, 2005 59th, 2001 60th, 2013,2018 t68 coldest. Apr 2018 t45 coldest, 2003 t52, 2007 t60, 2020 t63, (2000 t75 median value, see note for July) May 2003 t12 coldest, 2005 t18, 2008 t40, 2020 t49. 2002 t52, 2017 t63 coldest. June 2009 t9 coldest, 2003 19th, at 69.8 June 2023 would be t38, 2006,2012 t73, 2015 t77 (median) July 2009 8th coldest (2000 was t4th coldest but some would say 2000 is in the 20th century) 2001 t13, 2004 t32, 2007 t45, 2003 t60. 2021 t70, 2014 t72 coldest. Aug 2008 t55 coldest (2000 was t28th coldest, see above) 2007,2016 t58, 2004 t64, 2014 t73 coldest. Sep 2006 t37 coldest (2000 was t29th coldest, see above) 2001 73rd coldest, 2003,2013 t75 coldest. Oct 2009 t34 coldest; 2003, 2008 t36 coldest; 2002 t40 coldest, (2004 t52, 2006 t57, 2022 69th, 2000 70th, 2011 t71st coldest. Nov 2012, 2019 t31 coldest, 2018 t41st coldest, 2000,2013,2014 t59, 2007 t63, 2008 t74, 2002 t76 coldest (median) Dec 2010 t35 coldest, 2017 t38 coldest, 2005 64th coldest, 2009 t72nd coldest, 2002 76th coldest (2000 t22 coldest, see note for July). ________________________ Probably the median value of 21st century months is around 50th warmest in the 155-year series, but even so, a healthy number of months have fallen below the overall median (now ranked 78th). On average 5 to 8 months out of 23 or so have been this cold. Note that June 2023 will likely be third coldest of the century but at t38 is around the start of the coldest quarter (or the colder half of the cold months). With urban heat island factored in, this was probably about the 28th coldest June. Several months including March, April, August, September, October and December have not had a significantly colder month than this June in relative terms to overall distribution.

Yada yada dca, nyc, bos, ord, atl, iah, den, phx, sea enter by July 1 06z and then enjoy the long weekend ... Anyone looking for more info should check June 2023 contest thread.

For NYC, so far three days have hit 90 or higher, Apr 13, 14 and June 2. Plenty of years have had a lower total as of June 25. Twenty-two previous years have not recorded a 90 deg reading by June 25th (1869, 1877, 1878, 1886, 1887, 1897, 1901, 1902, 1903, 1911, 1916, 1917, 1926, 1928, 1935, 1958, 1960, 1972, 1982, 1985, 2014 and 2019). The lowest maximum to this date was 81F in 1916. Quite a few of the years shut out to 25th went on to record significant heat waves in July and/or August. The latest date for any year to first hit or break 90 was July 26, 1877 (92F) and 1902 had only one day at 90F all year (July 9). In 1901 by contrast, the next eight days (starting June 26) all broke 90 and July 1-2 hit 100F. Then there were 23 years with one day 90 or higher, most recently 2015 and 2020, and 36 years with only 2 days of 90 or higher by June 25. This year tied (at three days) with 24 other years. The average (1869 to 2023) is 3.0 and the more recent average (1991-2020) is also 3.0. The maximum number was eleven days in 1991 while 1925 had ten; 1962 and 1988 had nine each. More recently 2013 and 2017 had five such days, the most since 2000 had six and 1994 had eight.

These stats show that June 2023 is likely to finish near the bottom of the table in terms of an increase in mean temperature January to June. The current mean is around 69.0 and seems destined to reach a value just around or slightly above 70, meanwhile 70.8 will tie with 1932 as smallest increase as shown, so any value below 70.8 will set a new record in terms of a small increase from Jan to June. For NYC, these are the bottom twenty increases in average temperature from January to June : YEAR ___ JAN _____ JUN _____ incr _______ to tie 2023 (43.5) needs June at 1932 ____ 43.2 ____ 70.5 ____ 27.3 _____________ 70.8 1950 ____ 41.4 ____ 70.3 ____ 28.9 _____________ 72.4 1998 ____ 40.0 ____ 69.2 ____ 29.2 ____________ 72.7 1913 ____ 40.8 ____ 70.5 ____ 29.7 ____________ 73.2 1916 ____ 36.0 ____ 65.7 ____ 29.7 ____________ 73.2 2006 ____ 40.9 ____ 71.0 ____ 30.1 1990 ____ 41.4 ____ 72.1 ____ 30.7 1947 ____ 37.2 ____ 68.4 ____ 31.2 2002 ____ 39.9 ____ 71.4 ____ 31.5 1937 ____ 40.2 ____ 71.8 ____ 31.6 1933 ____ 40.3 ____ 72.4 ____ 32.1 1890 ____ 37.6 ____ 70.1 ____ 32.5 1972 ____ 35.1 ____ 67.9 ____ 32.8 1975 ____ 37.3 ____ 70.5 ____ 33.2 1951 ____ 36.5 ____ 69.8 ____ 33.3 1928 ____ 34.0 ____ 67.4 ____ 33.4 1911 ____ 36.3 ____ 69.8 ____ 33.5 1915 ____ 34.5 ____ 68.0 ____ 33.5 1907 ____ 34.9 ____ 68.6 ____ 33.7 1974 ____ 35.3 ____ 69.0 ____ 33.7 2012 ____ 37.3 _____71.0 ____ 33.7 1903 ____ 30.4 ____ 64.2 ____ 33.8 2007 ____ 37.5 ____ 71.4 ____ 33.9 2017 ____ 38.0 ____ 72.0 ____ 34.0

Final scoring for June 2023 Max 60 rule applies for NYC but only for top score as all other raw scores are above or equal to minimum progression. * Late penalty adjustments in scores. FORECASTER _______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west ___ TOTAL RodneyS _____________________ 62 _ 60^_68 __ 190 __ 86 _ 74 _ 74 __ 234 __424 __ 28 _ 98_ 86 __ 212 _____ 636 DonSutherland1 ______________58 _ 50 _ 42 __ 150 __ 94 _ 84 _ 54 __ 232 __ 382 __ 84 _ 90 _ 60 __ 234 _____ 616 ___ Normal ___________________ 56 _ 60 _ 58 __ 174 __ 96 _ 74 _ 58 __ 228 __ 402 __ 20 _ 60 _100 __ 180 _____ 582 Rhino 16 ______________________38 _ 54 _ 50 __ 142 __ 90 _ 60 _ 66 __ 216 __ 358 __ 26 _ 68 _ 86 __ 180 _____ 538 ___ Consensus _______________ 36 _ 44 _ 42 __ 122 __ 94 _ 66 _ 74 __ 234 __ 356 __ 20 _ 68 _ 70 __ 158 _____ 514 wxallannj _____________________36 _ 44 _ 38 __ 118 __100 _ 98 _ 18 __ 216 __ 334 __ 44 _ 70 _ 56 __ 170 _____ 504 BKViking _____________________ 42 _ 42 _ 48 __ 132 __100_ 78 _ 88 __ 266 __ 398 __ 04 _ 28 _ 72 __ 104 _____ 502 Terpeast _____________________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 __ 140 __ 84 _ 86 _ 26 __ 196 __ 336 __ 10 _ 76 _ 60 __ 146 _____ 482 wxdude64 ___________________ 24 _ 18 _ 12 __ 054 __ 66 _ 88 _ 62 __ 216 __ 270 __ 62 _ 86 _ 64 __ 212 _____ 482 Tom __________________________34 _ 36 _ 42 __ 112 __ 86 _ 66 _ 80 __ 232 __ 344 __ 12 _ 38 _ 78 __ 128 _____ 472 so_whats_happening ________ 34 _ 44 _ 42 __ 120 ___68 _ 64 _ 46 __ 178 __ 298 __ 24 _ 72 _ 70 __ 166 _____ 464 Scotty Lightning _____________ 36 _ 40 _ 38 __ 114 __ 84 _ 44 _ 88 __ 216 __ 330 __ 00 _ 30 _ 90 __ 120 _____ 450 hudsonvalley21 _______________42 _ 52 _ 46 __ 140 __ 78 _ 38 _ 78 __ 194 __ 334 __ 00 _ 22 _ 78 __ 100 _____ 434 RJay _______ (-2%) ___________ 35*_20 _ 00 __ 055 __ 63*_ 43*_96*__202 __ 257 __ 20 _ 59*_ 59*__ 138 _____ 395 Roger Smith _________________ 00 _ 10 _ 00 __ 010 ___44 _ 44 _ 72 __ 160 __ 170 ___ 00 _ 54 _ 56 ___ 110 _____ 280 - - - - - - ___ Persistence ______________100 _ 70 _ 24 __ 194 __ 68 _ 92 _ 44 __ 204 __ 398 ___ 00 _ 34 _ 74 __ 108 _____ 506 ^ max 60 scoring applies _____________________ EXTREME FORECASTS DCA (-2.2), NYC (-2.0), BOS (-2.1) RodneyS has three wins for coldest forecasts, sharing NYC with Terpeast. Normal also gets a win for NYC. ORD (+0.2) wxallannj and BKViking share a win for second coldest forecasts, RodneyS takes a loss and Normal is credited with a win also. ATL (-1.3) wxallannj (-1.2) takes a win with coldest forecast. IAH (+2.1) RJay has a win with warmest forecast (+2.0). DEN (-4.0) DonSutherland1 has a win with coldest forecast (-3.2). PHX (-2.0) RodneyS has a win with coldest forecast (-2.1). SEA (0.0) Scotty Lightning (+0.5) and Normal took a win for coldest forecasts. Summary _ RodneyS 4*-1, Normal 3-0, wxallannj 2*-0, RJay, Don, Terpeast*, BKViking*, Scotty all 1-0 (* one of total includes a tie, Normal does not record ties) All locations qualified and 8/9 for coldest forecast, 1/9 for warmest forecast. ------------------------------------------------- (actual forecasts) FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Roger Smith _________________ +2.8 _+2.5 _+3.5 __+3.0 _+1.5 _+0.7___+1.7 _+0.3 _+2.2 wxdude64 ___________________ +1.6 _+2.1 _+2.3 ___+1.9 _-0.7 _+0.2 __ -2.1 _ -1.3 _+1.8 Tom __________________________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +0.8 __+0.9 _+0.4 _+1.1___+0.4 _+1.1 _+1.1 so_whats_happening ________ +1.1 _ +0.8 _+0.8 __+1.8 _+0.5 _-0.6 __ -0.2 _-0.6 _+1.5 RJay _______ (-2%) ___________+1.0 _+2.0 _+2.9 __+2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 _+2.0 Scotty Lightning _____________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxallannj _____________________+1.0 _ +0.8 _+1.0 __+0.2 _-1.2 _-2.0 __ -1.2 _-0.5 _+2.2 ___ Consensus _______________ +1.0 _ +0.8 _+0.8 __+0.5_+0.4 _+0.8 __ 0.0 _-0.4_ +1.5 Rhino 16 _____________________ +0.9 _+0.3 _+0.4 __+0.7 _+0.7 _+0.4 __-0.3 _-0.4 _+0.7 BKViking _____________________+0.7 _+0.9 _+0.5 __+0.2 _-0.2 _+1.5 __+0.8 _+1.6 _+1.4 hudsonvalley21 ______________+0.7 _+0.4 _+0.6 __+1.3 _+1.8 _+1.0 __ +1.4 _+1.9 _+1.1 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 _____________ -0.1 _ +0.5 _+0.8 __ +0.5 _-0.5 _-0.2 __-3.2 _-1.5 _+2.0 Terpeast _____________________-0.3 _+0.8 _+1.2 __ +1.0 _-0.6 _-1.6 __ +0.5 _-0.8 _+2.0 RodneyS _____________________-0.3 _+0.1 _-0.5 ___-0.5 __ 0.0 _+0.8 __-0.4 _-2.1 _+0.7 _____________________

Re discussion of summer better defined as June to August or June 21 to Sept 21, actually June 13 to Sep 13 is the warmest quarter of the year on average. So it is a compromise and slightly closer to astronomical summer than to climatological summer. Every year is different of coursre, and 1881 had a very late displacement of its summer into basically July to September. 1964 was probably the most extreme example in the other direction, May was more of a summer feel than August that year. 1965 was almost as early except that July 1965 was a very cool month too, there was almost no summer in 1965. I see signs on tonite\s ,model run of Texas anomaly moving towards Kansas and once it gets past KS will be difficult to keep it entirely out of NE states but signs are weak later in model run for it so far. July 5-8 would be most likey arrival time.

I wonder if the heat in Texas will eventually begin to spread north and east, looking back at maps for June 1936 it looked fairly similar and that intense heat did not really begin to move out of the south until early July. The real push northeast began around July 3-4. It reached the Midwest by 5th-6th and the northeast U.S. by 8th-9th. I don't suppose this will be equal but it could be a change in the pattern. There were actually some quite cool days in early July of 1936 before the record heat wave began.

After the first half of June, anomalies and projections ... ___________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA 16th ___ (15d anom) _____ -1.6 _ -1.6 _ -2.5 ___ -0.2 _ -1.2 _ -1.0 ___ -4.9 _ -3.4 _ +1.0 16th ___ (p30d anom) ____-1.0 _ -1.0 _ -2.0 ___ +0.2 _ -1.0 _ -0.5___ -2.0 _ -1.5 __ 0.0 23rd __ (22d anom) _____ -2.7_ -2.2 _-3.3 ___ -0.5 _ -1.7 _ +1.0 ___ -4.4 _-2.5*_ -0.7 *est data for Phx on 21st, 22nd, msg data 23rd __ (p30d anom) ____ -2.0 _-2.0 _-2.5 ____ 0.0 _ -1.5 _ +2.0 ____-2.5 _ -1.5 _ -0.5 30th __ (final anoms) ____ -2.2 _ -2.0 _-2.1 ____+0.2 _-1.3 _ +2.1 ____-4.0 _-2.0* _ 0.0 summer max so far _______ 94 __ 91 __ 88 ____ 93 __ 92 __ 100 _____ 92 __ 112 __ 89 * data for 21st and 22nd (max temp only) are now included and I have adjusted scoring to the confirmed anomaly of -2.0 F. (23rd) Looks just a bit warmer in general but not so much as to impact on current anomalies greatly. Provisional scoring to follow. (30th - 1st overnight) Final anomalies are now posted. Scoring is updated.

Table of entries as of June 13 Entrants can still modify these forecasts and new forecasts can be entered up until end of Friday June 16th. Order of entry is shown in brackets. A revised forecast will result in a new later order of entry. As contest host, I will not have an order of entry, so anyone who ties me in total error will be ahead in rankings. Tiebreakers are explained in a previous post. FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC GeorgeBM ( 8 ) __________________ 105 _ 103 _ 106 _ 104 StormchaserChuck1 ( 1 ) ________ 104 _ 103 _ 103 _ 104 Roger Smith _____________________ 102 _ 102 _ 103 _ 103 H2O (20) _________________________102 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 ChillinIt (15) _______________________102 __ 98 _ 103 _ 104 Rhino16 ( 2 ) ______________________101 _ 103 _ 102 _ 105 mattie g (17) ______________________101 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 wxdude64 (16) ___________________101 __ 99 _ 101 __ 102 soundmdwatcher (23) ___________ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _ 102 Terpeast ( 6 ) ____________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 tplbge (24) _______________________100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 GramaxRefugee (19) _____________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 toolsheds (18) ____________________100 __ 98 _ 101 _ 102 biodhokie (25) ____________________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 RickinBaltimore ( 7 ) ______________ 99 __100 _ 100 __ 99 WinstonSalemArlington (22) ______ 99 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 nw baltimore wx ( 3 ) _____________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 _ 100 Weather53 (13) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 WxUSAF ( 4 ) _____________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 katabatic ( 9 ) _____________________99 __ 98 _ 100 _ 100 NorthArlington101 (21) ____________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 Stormpc (14) ______________________98 _ 102 _ 101 __ 99 MN Transplant ( 5 ) _______________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 Its a Breeze (12) __________________ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 WxWatcher007 (11) _______________ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 LittleVillageWx (10) _______________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98

New York City (NYC) Seasonal average temperatures 1869 to 2024 Winter includes the preceding year's December. 1868-69 had no data for December. A provisional value of 1.5 C is used for Dec 1868 based on comparisons with locations that did have data. The Jan-Feb average alone (1.56) is similar. YEAR ___ winter _ spring _ summer _ autumn 1869 ____ 1.54 ____ 8.47 ___ 21.83 ____ 11.26 1870 ____ 1.39 ____ 9.21 ___ 23.85 ____ 13.73 1871 ____-0.63____11.22 ___ 21.87 ____ 10.96 1872 ____-1.50 ____ 8.41 ___ 23.76 ____ 11.96 1873 ____-2.07 ____ 8.37 ___ 22.54 ____ 11.52 1874 ____ 1.11 ____ 7.59 ___ 21.91 ____ 12.87 1875 ____-2.45 ____ 7.65 ___ 22.24 ____ 11.28 1876 ____ 1.17 ____ 8.44 ___ 24.46 ____ 11.76 1877 ____-1.18 ____ 8.72 ___ 23.07 ____ 13.18 1878 ____ 0.72 ____11.26 ___ 22.90 ____ 13.85 1879 ____-1.54 ____10.31 ___ 22.44 ____ 13.15 1880 ____ 3.28 ____10.81 ___ 23.09 ____ 11.74 1881 ____-2.98 _____ 9.13 ___ 21.61 ____ 15.07 1882 ____ 1.37 _____ 9.00 ___ 23.15 ____ 12.48 1883 ____-1.85 _____ 8.32 ___ 22.76 ____ 11.57 1884 ____-0.98 _____ 9.18 ___ 22.39 ____ 14.44 1885 ____-1.91 _____ 8.13 ___ 23.31 ____ 12.48 1886 ____-1.11 ____ 10.13 ___ 21.67 ____ 12.74 1887 ____-0.98 _____ 8.59 ___ 22.56 ____ 11.00 1888 ____-1.83 _____ 7.04 ___ 21.89 ____ 11.28 1889 ____ 0.41 ____ 10.82 ___ 21.91 ____ 11.78 1890 ____ 3.61 _____ 9.07 ___ 22.20 ____ 12.87 1891 ____ 0.78 _____ 8.76 ___ 22.83 ____ 13.81 1892 ____ 2.07 _____ 8.55 ___ 23.46 ____ 12.06 1893 ____-1.98 _____ 8.17 ___ 22.08 ____ 12.30 1894 ____ 0.13 ____ 10.54 ___ 22.22 ____ 12.89 1895 ____-0.98 _____ 9.63 ___ 23.17 ____ 13.93 1896 ____ 0.70 ____ 10.35 ___ 23.46 ____ 13.91 1897 ____ 0.41 ____ 10.52 ___ 22.33 ____ 13.63 1898 ____ 2.48 ____ 10.32 ___ 23.45 ____ 14.71 1899 ____-0.39 _____ 9.94 ___ 23.98 ____ 13.83 1900 ____ 0.80 _____ 8.70 ___ 23.54 ____ 15.72 1901 ____-0.17 _____ 8.82 ___ 23.57 ____ 12.56 1902 ____ 0.00 ____ 10.72 ___ 21.39 ____ 14.91 1903 ____ 0.02 ____ 12.33 ___ 20.72 ____ 13.18 1904 ____-2.56 _____ 9.33 ___ 22.56 ____ 12.41 1905 ____-2.15 ____ 10.33 ___ 23.21 ____ 14.28 1906 ____ 2.61 ____ 10.06 ___ 24.41 ____ 14.28 1907 ____-0.19 _____ 9.15 ___ 22.85 ____ 12.93 1908 ____ 0.70 ____ 11.29 ___ 24.56 ____ 14.85 1909 ____ 2.59 _____ 9.48 ___ 22.56 ____ 13.85 1910 ____-0.46 ____ 11.68 ___ 22.57 ____ 13.80 1911 ____ 0.30 _____ 9.37 ___ 23.00 ____ 13.05 1912 ____-0.76 ____ 10.05 ___ 22.43 ____ 14.37 1913 ____ 2.85 ____ 11.48 ___ 22.96 ____ 13.80 1914 ____-0.08 _____ 9.80 ___ 22.15 ____ 13.85 1915 ____ 1.11 ____ 10.04 ___ 21.76 ____ 14.44 1916 ____ 0.26 _____ 8.55 ___ 22.20 ____ 13.82 1917 ____-0.15 _____ 8.52 ___ 23.41 ____ 11.52 1918 ____-3.50 ____ 11.50 ___ 22.76 ____ 13.61 1919 ____ 2.57 ____ 10.98 ___ 22.42 ____ 14.07 1920 ____-2.57 _____ 9.41 ___ 22.46 ____ 14.45 1921 ____ 1.61 ____ 12.91 ___ 22.98 ____ 14.28 1922 ____-0.31 ____ 11.31 ___ 22.57 ____ 14.09 1923 ____-1.15 _____ 9.47 ___ 22.93 ____ 13.61 1924 ____ 1.41 _____ 9.19 ___ 22.26 ____ 12.89 1925 ____ 0.80 ____ 11.04 ___ 23.18 ____ 12.46 1926 ____ 0.00 _____ 8.72 ___ 22.20 ____ 12.91 1927 ____ 0.04 ____ 10.11 ___ 21.07 ____ 14.94 1928 ____ 1.43 _____ 9.37 ___ 22.72 ____ 13.89 1929 ____ 1.50 ____ 11.45 ___ 23.05 ____ 13.74 1930 ____ 1.87 ____ 10.44 ___ 23.61 ____ 14.28 1931 ____ 0.98 ____ 10.54 ___ 23.59 ____ 16.58 1932 ____ 4.50 _____ 9.68 ___ 23.57 ____ 14.05 1933 ____ 3.24 ____ 10.59 ___ 23.53 ____ 13.24 1934 ____-1.61 ____ 10.24 ___ 23.61 ____ 14.18 1935 ____-0.46 ____ 10.57 ___ 23.33 ____ 13.96 1936 ____-2.04 ____ 11.39 ___ 23.22 ____ 13.42 1937 ____ 3.26 ____ 10.06 ___ 23.89 ____ 13.30 1938 ____ 1.28 ____ 11.61 ___ 23.91 ____ 14.46 1939 ____ 1.89 ____ 10.45 ___ 24.39 ____ 13.63 1940 ____-0.22 _____ 8.63 ___ 22.59 ____ 12.91 1941 ____ 0.54 ____ 11.41 ___ 23.28 ____ 15.68 1942 ____ 0.50 ____ 12.24 ___ 23.13 ____ 14.46 1943 ____ 0.09 _____ 9.80 ___ 24.63 ____ 13.43 1944 ____ 0.76 ____ 10.65 ___ 24.72 ____ 14.30 1945 ____-0.85 ____ 12.94 ___ 22.76 ____ 14.46 1946 ____ 0.15 ____ 12.24 ___ 22.22 ____ 15.93 1947 ____ 1.56 _____ 9.67 ___ 22.94 ____ 14.89 1948 ____-1.09 ____ 10.61 ___ 23.30 ____ 15.44 1949 ____ 3.61 ____ 11.82 ___ 24.92 ____ 14.74 1950 ____ 3.04 _____ 8.83 ___ 22.67 ____ 14.30 1951 ____ 2.17 ____ 11.45 ___ 23.17 ____ 13.76 1952 ____ 2.78 ____ 11.09 ___ 24.59 ____ 14.48 1953 ____ 3.41 ____ 11.68 ___ 24.29 ____ 15.70 1954 ____ 3.00 ____ 10.96 ___ 23.17 ____ 14.72 1955 ____ 1.09 ____ 11.96 ___ 24.43 ____ 14.05 1956 ____ 0.43 _____ 8.94 ___ 22.68 ____ 13.63 1957 ____ 1.98 ____ 11.52 ___ 24.00 ____ 14.68 1958 ____ 0.65 ____ 10.43 ___ 22.69 ____ 13.89 1959 ____-0.63 ____ 11.91 ___ 23.89 ____ 15.17 1960 ____ 2.34 ____ 10.00 ___ 23.20 ____ 14.78 1961 ____-0.13 ____ 10.07 ___ 24.22 ____ 16.20 1962 ____ 0.72 ____ 12.02 ___ 22.76 ____ 12.87 1963 ____-1.13 ____ 11.58 ___ 22.85 ____ 14.69 1964 ____ 0.71 ____ 11.52 ___ 22.94 ____ 14.00 1965 ____ 0.74 ____ 11.29 ___ 22.52 ____ 14.00 1966 ____ 2.18 ____ 10.74 ___ 25.18 ____ 14.00 1967 ____ 1.17 _____ 8.59 ___ 23.34 ____ 13.04 1968 ____-0.41 ____ 11.46 ___ 23.52 ____ 15.18 1969 ____ 0.50 ____ 12.09 ___ 23.94 ____ 14.28 1970 ____-0.83 ____ 10.89 ___ 24.00 ____ 15.22 1971 ____ 0.09 ____ 10.42 ___ 24.42 ____ 15.45 1972 ____ 2.09 ____ 10.59 ___ 23.09 ____ 13.22 1973 ____ 1.94 ____ 11.72 ___ 24.52 ____ 15.19 1974 ____ 1.85 ____ 11.54 ___ 23.45 ____ 13.52 1975 ____ 3.05 ____ 10.72 ___ 23.09 ____ 14.76 1976 ____ 1.33 ____ 11.78 ___ 23.39 ____ 12.07 1977 ____-1.95 ____ 12.87 ___ 23.87 ____ 13.78 1978 ____-0.94 ____ 10.39 ___ 23.28 ____ 13.28 1979 ____ 0.37 ____ 12.74 ___ 23.50 ____ 15.61 1980 ____ 1.89 ____ 12.09 ___ 24.80 ____ 13.82 1981 ____ 0.39 ____ 12.46 ___ 24.35 ____ 13.65 1982 ____ 0.35 ____ 11.35 ___ 22.91 ____ 15.04 1983 ____ 3.28 ____ 11.21 ___ 24.93 ____ 15.30 1984 ____ 1.80 ____ 10.04 ___ 24.05 ____ 14.63 1985 ____ 2.45 ____ 13.08 ___ 23.00 ____ 15.56 1986 ____ 0.80 ____ 12.89 ___ 23.09 ____ 14.00 1987 ____ 1.58 ____ 12.26 ___ 23.89 ____ 13.59 1988 ____ 1.48 ____ 11.39 ___ 24.80 ____ 13.63 1989 ____ 2.19 ____ 11.24 ___ 23.15 ____ 14.08 1990 ____ 2.05 ____ 11.63 ___ 23.74 ____ 15.52 1991 ____ 3.98 ____ 13.52 ___ 24.61 ____ 14.48 1992 ____ 2.91 ____ 10.28 ___ 22.50 ____ 13.37 1993 ____ 1.67 ____ 11.61 ___ 24.94 ____ 14.09 1994 ____-0.47 ____ 11.50 ___ 24.55 ____ 15.11 1995 ____ 2.84 ____ 11.63 ___ 24.74 ____ 14.35 1996 ____ 0.15 ____ 10.41 ___ 22.83 ____ 13.22 1997 ____ 3.24 ____ 10.55 ___ 22.96 ____ 13.39 1998 ____ 4.24 ____ 12.53 ___ 23.41 ____ 14.79 1999 ____ 3.70 ____ 11.68 ___ 24.83 ____ 14.76 2000 ____ 2.33 ____ 12.17 ___ 22.28 ____ 13.39 2001 ____ 0.85 ____ 11.41 ___ 23.85 ____ 15.35 2002 ____ 5.30 ____ 12.02 ___ 24.43 ____ 13.96 2003 ____-0.45 ____ 10.30 ___ 23.11 ____ 14.26 2004 ____ 0.24 ____ 12.28 ___ 22.94 ____ 14.35 2005 ____ 1.89 ____ 10.63 ___ 25.04 ____ 15.70 2006 ____ 2.94 ____ 12.21 ___ 23.83 ____ 14.57 2007 ____ 2.46 ____ 11.43 ___ 23.04 ____ 15.43 2008 ____ 2.45 ____ 11.41 ___ 24.11 ____ 13.65 2009 ____ 1.24 ____ 11.74 ___ 22.20 ____ 14.17 2010 ____ 1.02 ____ 13.96 ___ 25.44 ____ 15.02 2011 ____ 0.46 ____ 12.06 ___ 24.41 ____ 15.37 2012 ____ 4.72 ____ 13.85 ___ 24.17 ____ 13.83 2013 ____ 2.69 ____ 11.09 ___ 24.28 ____ 14.33 2014 ____ 0.50 ____ 10.74 ___ 23.54 ____ 14.55 2015 ____-0.32 ____ 12.02 ___ 24.63 ____ 16.54 2016 ____ 5.00 ____ 12.78 ___ 24.85 ____ 15.63 2017 ____ 4.05 ____ 11.39 ___ 23.48 ____ 15.78 2018 ____ 2.06 ____ 11.20 ___ 24.33 ____ 14.22 2019 ____ 2.37 ____ 11.74 ___ 24.22 ____ 14.48 2020 ____ 3.98 ____ 11.61 ___ 24.93 ____ 15.50 2021 ____ 2.26 ____ 12.47 ___ 24.41 ____ 15.28 2022 ____ 2.85 ____ 12.24 ___ 24.85 ____ 15.05 2023 ____ 5.02 ____ 12.76 ___ 23.52 ____ 14.93 2024 ____ 4.76 ____ 13.44 ___ 24.78 ____ 15.76 2025 ____ 1.57 Seasonal Mean Temperatures at NYC adjusted for urban heat island (Adjusted from 0.1 C 1881-1890 to 1.1 C 1981-1990 in 0.1 increments per decade, steady state after 1990 (1.1 C). ... These values are subtracted from the table above. Winter seasons that overlap decade boundaries are adjusted by 0.03 less. Ranks will be made available for this adjusted more representative series. YEAR ___ winter _ spring _ summer _ autumn 1869 ____ 1.54 ____ 8.47 ___ 21.83 ____ 11.26 1870 ____ 1.39 ____ 9.21 ___ 23.85 ____ 13.73 1871 ____-0.63____11.22 ___ 21.87 ____ 10.96 1872 ____-1.50 ____ 8.41 ___ 23.76 ____ 11.96 1873 ____-2.07 ____ 8.37 ___ 22.54 ____ 11.52 1874 ____ 1.11 ____ 7.59 ___ 21.91 ____ 12.87 1875 ____-2.45 ____ 7.65 ___ 22.24 ____ 11.28 1876 ____ 1.17 ____ 8.44 ___ 24.46 ____ 11.76 1877 ____-1.18 ____ 8.72 ___ 23.07 ____ 13.18 1878 ____ 0.72 ____11.26 ___ 22.90 ____ 13.85 1879 ____-1.54 ____10.31 ___ 22.44 ____ 13.15 1880 ____ 3.28 ____10.81 ___ 23.09 ____ 11.74 1881 ____-2.92 _____ 9.03 ___ 21.51 ____ 14.97 1882 ____ 1.27 _____ 8.90 ___ 23.05 ____ 12.38 1883 ____-1.95 _____ 8.22 ___ 22.66 ____ 11.47 1884 ____-1.08 _____ 9.08 ___ 22.29 ____ 14.34 1885 ____-2.01 _____ 8.03 ___ 23.21 ____ 12.38 1886 ____-1.21 ____ 10.03 ___ 21.57 ____ 12.64 1887 ____-1.08 _____ 8.49 ___ 22.46 ____ 10.90 1888 ____-1.93 _____ 6.94 ___ 21.79 ____ 11.18 1889 ____ 0.31 ____ 10.72 ___ 21.81 ____ 11.68 1890 ____ 3.51 _____ 8.97 ___ 22.10 ____ 12.77 1891 ____ 0.61 _____ 8.56 ___ 22.63 ____ 13.61 1892 ____ 1.87 _____ 8.35 ___ 23.26 ____ 11.86 1893 ____-2.18 _____ 7.97 ___ 21.88 ____ 12.10 1894 ____-0.07 ____ 10.34 ___ 22.02 ____ 12.69 1895 ____-1.18 _____ 9.43 ___ 22.97 ____ 13.73 1896 ____ 0.50 ____ 10.15 ___ 23.26 ____ 13.71 1897 ____ 0.21 ____ 10.32 ___ 22.13 ____ 13.43 1898 ____ 2.28 ____ 10.12 ___ 23.25 ____ 14.51 1899 ____-0.59 _____ 9.74 ___ 23.78 ____ 13.63 1900 ____ 0.60 _____ 8.50 ___ 23.34 ____ 15.52 1901 ____-0.44 _____ 8.52 ___ 23.27 ____ 12.26 1902 ____-0.30 ____ 10.42 ___ 21.09 ____ 14.61 1903 ____-0.28 ____ 12.03 ___ 20.42 ____ 12.88 1904 ____-2.86 _____ 9.03 ___ 22.26 ____ 12.11 1905 ____-2.45 ____ 10.03 ___ 22.91 ____ 13.98 1906 ____ 2.31 _____ 9.76 ___ 24.11 ____ 13.98 1907 ____-0.49 _____ 8.85 ___ 22.55 ____ 12.63 1908 ____ 0.40 ____ 10.99 ___ 24.26 ____ 14.55 1909 ____ 2.29 _____ 9.18 ___ 22.26 ____ 13.55 1910 ____-0.76 ____ 11.38 ___ 22.27 ____ 13.50 1911 ____-0.07 _____ 8.97 ___ 22.60 ____ 12.65 1912 ____-1.16 _____ 9.65 ___ 22.03 ____ 13.97 1913 ____ 2.45 ____ 11.08 ___ 22.56 ____ 13.40 1914 ____-0.48 _____ 9.40 ___ 21.75 ____ 13.45 1915 ____ 0.71 _____ 9.64 ___ 21.36 ____ 14.04 1916 ____-0.14 _____ 8.15 ___ 21.80 ____ 13.42 1917 ____-0.55 _____ 8.12 ___ 23.01 ____ 11.12 1918 ____-3.90 ____ 11.10 ___ 22.36 ____ 13.21 1919 ____ 2.17 ____ 10.58 ___ 22.02 ____ 13.67 1920 ____-2.97 _____ 9.01 ___ 22.06 ____ 14.05 1921 ____ 1.14 ____ 12.41 ___ 22.48 ____ 13.78 1922 ____-0.81 ____ 10.81 ___ 22.07 ____ 13.59 1923 ____-1.65 _____ 8.97 ___ 22.43 ____ 13.11 1924 ____ 0.91 _____ 8.69 ___ 21.76 ____ 12.39 1925 ____ 0.30 ____ 10.54 ___ 22.68 ____ 11.96 1926 ____-0.50 _____ 8.22 ___ 21.70 ____ 12.41 1927 ____-0.46 _____ 9.61 ___ 20.57 ____ 14.44 1928 ____ 0.93 _____ 8.87 ___ 22.22 ____ 13.39 1929 ____ 1.00 ____ 10.95 ___ 22.55 ____ 13.24 1930 ____ 1.37 _____ 9.94 ___ 23.11 ____ 13.78 1931 ____ 0.41 _____ 9.94 ___ 22.99 ____ 15.98 1932 ____ 3.90 _____ 9.08 ___ 22.97 ____ 13.45 1933 ____ 2.64 _____ 9.99 ___ 22.93 ____ 12.64 1934 ____-2.21 _____ 9.64 ___ 23.01 ____ 13.58 1935 ____-1.06 _____ 9.97 ___ 22.73 ____ 13.36 1936 ____-2.64 ____ 10.79 ___ 22.62 ____ 12.82 1937 ____ 2.66 _____ 9.46 ___ 23.29 ____ 12.70 1938 ____ 0.68 ____ 11.01 ___ 23.31 ____ 13.86 1939 ____ 1.29 _____ 9.85 ___ 23.79 ____ 13.03 1940 ____-0.82 _____ 8.03 ___ 21.99 ____ 12.31 1941 ____-0.13 ____ 10.71 ___ 22.58 ____ 14.98 1942 ____-0.20 ____ 11.54 ___ 22.43 ____ 13.76 1943 ____-0.61 _____ 9.10 ___ 23.93 ____ 12.73 1944 ____ 0.06 _____ 9.95 ___ 24.02 ____ 13.60 1945 ____-1.55 ____ 12.24 ___ 22.06 ____ 13.76 1946 ____-0.55 ____ 11.54 ___ 21.52 ____ 15.23 1947 ____ 0.86 _____ 8.97 ___ 22.24 ____ 14.19 1948 ____-1.79 _____ 9.91 ___ 22.60 ____ 14.74 1949 ____ 2.91 ____ 11.12 ___ 24.22 ____ 14.04 1950 ____ 2.34 _____ 8.13 ___ 21.97 ____ 13.60 1951 ____ 1.40 ____ 10.65 ___ 22.37 ____ 12.96 1952 ____ 1.98 ____ 10.29 ___ 23.79 ____ 13.68 1953 ____ 2.61 ____ 10.88 ___ 23.49 ____ 14.90 1954 ____ 2.20 ____ 10.16 ___ 22.37 ____ 13.92 1955 ____ 0.29 ____ 11.16 ___ 23.63 ____ 13.25 1956 ____-0.37 _____ 8.14 ___ 21.88 ____ 12.83 1957 ____ 1.18 ____ 10.72 ___ 23.20 ____ 13.88 1958 ____-0.15 _____ 9.63 ___ 21.89 ____ 13.09 1959 ____-1.43 ____ 11.11 ___ 23.09 ____ 14.37 1960 ____ 1.54 _____ 9.20 ___ 22.40 ____ 13.98 1961 ____-1.00 _____ 9.17 ___ 23.32 ____ 15.30 1962 ____-0.18 ____ 11.12 ___ 21.86 ____ 11.97 1963 ____-2.03 ____ 10.68 ___ 21.95 ____ 13.79 1964 ____-0.19 ____ 10.62 ___ 22.04 ____ 13.10 1965 ____-0.16 ____ 10.39 ___ 21.62 ____ 13.10 1966 ____ 1.28 _____ 9.84 ___ 24.28 ____ 13.10 1967 ____ 0.27 _____ 7.69 ___ 22.44 ____ 12.14 1968 ____-1.31 ____ 10.56 ___ 22.62 ____ 14.28 1969 ____-0.40 ____ 11.19 ___ 23.04 ____ 13.38 1970 ____-1.73 _____ 9.99 ___ 23.10 ____ 14.32 1971 ____-0.88 _____ 9.42 ___ 23.42 ____ 14.45 1972 ____ 1.09 _____ 9.59 ___ 22.09 ____ 12.22 1973 ____ 0.94 ____ 10.72 ___ 23.52 ____ 14.19 1974 ____ 0.85 ____ 10.54 ___ 22.45 ____ 12.52 1975 ____ 2.05 _____ 9.72 ___ 22.09 ____ 13.76 1976 ____ 0.33 ____ 10.78 ___ 22.39 ____ 11.07 1977 ____-2.95 ____ 11.87 ___ 22.87 ____ 12.78 1978 ____-1.94 _____ 9.39 ___ 22.28 ____ 12.28 1979 ____-0.63 ____ 11.74 ___ 22.50 ____ 14.61 1980 ____ 0.89 ____ 11.09 ___ 23.80 ____ 12.82 1981 ____-0.68 ____ 11.36 ___ 23.25 ____ 12.55 1982 ____-0.75 ____ 10.25 ___ 21.81 ____ 13.94 1983 ____ 2.18 ____ 10.11 ___ 23.83 ____ 14.20 1984 ____ 0.70 _____ 8.94 ___ 22.95 ____ 13.53 1985 ____ 1.35 ____ 11.98 ___ 21.90 ____ 14.46 1986 ____-0.30 ____ 11.79 ___ 21.99 ____ 12.90 1987 ____ 0.48 ____ 11.16 ___ 22.79 ____ 12.49 1988 ____ 0.38 ____ 10.29 ___ 23.70 ____ 12.53 1989 ____ 1.09 ____ 10.14 ___ 22.05 ____ 12.98 1990 ____ 0.95 ____ 10.53 ___ 22.64 ____ 14.42 1991 ____ 2.88 ____ 12.42 ___ 23.51 ____ 13.38 1992 ____ 1.81 _____ 9.18 ___ 21.40 ____ 12.27 1993 ____ 0.57 ____ 10.51 ___ 23.84 ____ 12.99 1994 ____-1.57 ____ 10.40 ___ 23.45 ____ 14.01 1995 ____ 1.74 ____ 10.53 ___ 23.64 ____ 13.25 1996 ____-0.95 _____ 9.31 ___ 21.73 ____ 12.12 1997 ____ 2.14 _____ 9.45 ___ 21.86 ____ 12.29 1998 ____ 3.14 ____ 11.43 ___ 22.31 ____ 13.69 1999 ____ 2.60 ____ 10.58 ___ 23.73 ____ 13.66 2000 ____ 1.23 ____ 11.07 ___ 21.18 ____ 12.29 2001 ____-0.25 ____ 10.31 ___ 22.75 ____ 14.25 2002 ____ 4.20 ____ 10.92 ___ 23.33 ____ 12.86 2003 ____-1.55 _____ 9.20 ___ 22.01 ____ 13.16 2004 ____-0.86 ____ 11.18 ___ 21.84 ____ 13.25 2005 ____ 0.79 _____ 9.53 ___ 23.94 ____ 14.60 2006 ____ 1.84 ____ 11.11 ___ 22.73 ____ 13.47 2007 ____ 1.36 ____ 10.33 ___ 21.94 ____ 14.33 2008 ____ 1.35 ____ 10.31 ___ 23.01 ____ 12.55 2009 ____ 0.14 ____ 10.64 ___ 21.10 ____ 13.07 2010 ____-0.08 ____ 12.86 ___24.34 ____ 13.92 2011 ____-0.64 ____ 10.96 ___ 23.31 ____ 14.27 2012 ____ 3.62 ____ 12.75 ___ 23.07 ____ 12.73 2013 ____ 1.59 _____ 9.99 ___ 23.18 ____ 13.23 2014 ____-0.60 _____ 9.64 ___ 22.44 ____13.45 2015 ____-1.42 ____ 10.92 ___ 23.53 ____ 15.44 2016 ____ 3.90 ____ 11.68 ___ 23.75 ____ 14.53 2017 ____ 2.95 ____ 10.29 ___ 22.38 ____ 14.68 2018 ____ 0.96 ____ 10.10 ___ 23.23 ____ 13.12 2019 ____ 1.27 ____ 10.64 ___ 23.12 ____ 13.38 2020 ____ 2.88 ____ 10.51 ___ 23.83 ____14.40 2021 ____ 1.16 ____ 11.37 ___ 23.31 ____ 14.18 2022 ____ 1.75 ____ 11.14 ___ 23.75 ____ 13.95 2023 ____ 3.92 ____ 11.66 ___22.42 ____13.83 2024 ____ 3.66 ____ 12.34 ___ 23.68___ 14.66 2025 ____ 0.47 Ranked seasonal means for NYC (adjusted for urban heat island) 156 years are ranked. The median position is average of 78th warmest and coldest. Warmest seasons are at the top of these ranked tables; coldest are at the bottom. Ties are not directly indicated and are listed in chronological order. __ Winter 2024-25 will enter table 74th warmest 0.47 C . 2025 median is 79th warmest and coldest. warmest ....................................................................................................... coldest RANK ___ winter _________ spring _______ summer _____ autumn ______ RANK _01 __ 2001-2002 4.20 __ 2010 12.86 __ 1876 24.46 __ 1931 15.98 ___ 156 _02 __ 2022-2023 3.92 __ 2012 12.75 __ 2010 24.34 __ 1900 15.52 ___ 155 _03 __ 1931-1932 3.90 __ 1991 12.42 __ 1966 24.28 __ 2015 15.44 ___ 154 _04 __ 2015-2016 3.90 __ 1921 12.41 __ 2005 23.94 __ 1961 15.30 ___ 153 _05 __ 2023-2024 3.66 __ 2024 12.34 __ 1908 24.26 __ 1946 15.23 ___ 152 _06 __ 2011-2012 3.62 __ 1945 12.24 __ 1949 24.22 __ 1941 14.98 ___ 151 _07 __ 1889-1890 3.51 __ 1903 12.03 __ 1906 24.11 __ 1881 14.97 ___ 150 _08 __ 1879-1880 3.28 __ 1985 11.98 __ 1944 24.02 __ 1953 14.90 ___ 149 _09 __ 1997-1998 3.14 __ 1977 11.87 __ 1943 23.93 __ 1948 14.74 ___ 148 _10 __ 2016-2017 2.95 __ 1986 11.79 __ 1870 23.85 __ 2017 14.68 ___ 147 _11 __ 1948-1949 2.91 __ 1979 11.74 __ 1993 23.84 __ 2024 14.66 ___ 146 _12 __ 1990-1991 2.88 __ 2016 11.68 __ 1983 23.83 __ 1902 14.61 ___ 145 _13 __ 2019-2020 2.88 __ 2023 11.66 __ 2020 23.83 __ 1979 14.61 ___ 144 _14 __ 1936-1937 2.66 __ 1942 11.54 __ 1980 23.80 __ 2005 14.60 ___ 143 _15 __ 1932-1933 2.64 __ 1946 11.54 __ 1939 23.79 __ 1908 14.55 ___ 142 _16 __ 1952-1953 2.61 __ 1998 11.43 __ 1952 23.79 __ 2016 14.53 ___ 141 _17 __ 1998-1999 2.60 __ 1910 11.38 __ 1899 23.78 __ 1898 14.51 ___ 140 _18 __ 1912-1913 2.45 __ 2021 11.37 __ 1872 23.76 __ 1971 14.45 ___ 139 _19 __ 1949-1950 2.34 __ 1981 11.36 __ 2016 23.75 __ 1985 14.46 ___ 138 _20 __ 1905-1906 2.31 __ 1878 11.26 __ 2022 23.75 __ 1927 14.44 ___ 137 _21 __ 1908-1909 2.29 __ 1871 11.22 __ 1999 23.73 __ 1990 14.42 ___ 136 _22 __ 1897-1898 2.28 __ 1969 11.19 __ 1988 23.70 __ 2020 14.40 ___ 135 _23 __ 1953-1954 2.20 __ 2004 11.18 __ 2024 23.68 __ 1959 14.37 ___ 134 _24 __ 1982-1983 2.18 __ 1955 11.16 __ 1995 23.64 __ 1884 14.34 ___ 133 _25 __ 1918-1919 2.17 __ 1987 11.16 __ 1955 23.63 __ 2007 14.33 ___ 132 _26 __ 1996-1997 2.14 __ 2022 11.14 __ 2015 23.53 __ 1970 14.32 ___ 131 _27 __ 1974-1975 2.05 __ 1949 11.12 __ 1973 23.52 __ 1968 14.28 ___ 130 _28 __ 1951-1952 1.98 __ 1962 11.12 __ 1991 23.51 __ 2011 14.27 ___ 129 _29 __ 1891-1892 1.87 __ 1959 11.11 __ 1953 23.49 __ 2001 14.25 ___ 128 _30 __ 2005-2006 1.84 __ 2006 11.11 __ 1994 23.45 __ 1983 14.20 ___ 127 _31 __ 1991-1992 1.81 __ 1918 11.10 __ 1971 23.42 __ 1947 14.19 ___ 126 _32 __ 2021-2022 1.75 __ 1980 11.09 __ 1900 23.34 __ 1973 14.19 ___ 125 _33 __ 1994-1995 1.74 __ 1913 11.08 __ 2002 23.33 __ 2021 14.18 ___ 124 _34 __ 2012-2013 1.59 __ 2000 11.07 __ 1961 23.32 __ 1920 14.05 ___ 123 _35 __ 1868-1869 1.54 __ 1938 11.01 __ 1938 23.31 __ 1915 14.04 ___ 122 _36 __ 1959-1960 1.54 __ 1908 10.99 __ 2011 23.31 __ 1949 14.04 ___ 121 _37 __ 1950-1951 1.40 __ 2011 10.96 __ 2021 23.31 __ 1994 14.01 ___ 120 _38 __ 1869-1870 1.39 __ 1929 10.95 __ 1937 23.29 __ 1905 13.98 ___ 119 _39 __ 1929-1930 1.37 __ 2002 10.92 __ 1901 23.27 __ 1906 13.98 ___ 118 _40 __ 2006-2007 1.36 __ 2015 10.92 __ 1892 23.26 __ 1960 13.98 ___ 117 _41 __ 1984-1985 1.35 __ 1953 10.88 __ 1896 23.26 __ 1912 13.97 ___ 116 _42 __ 2007-2008 1.35 __ 1880 10.81 __ 1898 23.25 __ 2022 13.95 ___ 115 _43 __ 1938-1939 1.29 __ 1922 10.81 __ 1981 23.25 __ 1982 13.94 ___ 114 _44 __ 1965-1966 1.28 __ 1936 10.79 __ 2018 23.23 __ 1954 13.92 ___ 113 _45 __ 1881-1882 1.27 __ 1976 10.78 __ 1885 23.21 __ 2010 13.92 ___ 112 _46 __ 2018-2019 1.27 __ 1889 10.72 __ 1957 23.20 __ 1957 13.88 ___ 111 _47 __ 1999-2000 1.23 __ 1957 10.72 __ 2013 23.18 __ 1938 13.86 ___ 110 _48 __ 1956-1957 1.18 __ 1973 10.72 __ 2019 23.12 __ 1878 13.85 ___ 109 _49 __ 1875-1876 1.17 __ 1941 10.71 __ 1930 23.11 __ 2023 13.83 ___ 108 _50 __ 2020-2021 1.16 __ 1963 10.68 __ 1970 23.10 __ 1963 13.79 ___ 107 _51 __ 1920-1921 1.14 __ 1951 10.65 __ 1880 23.09 __ 1921 13.78 ___ 106 _52 __ 1873-1874 1.11 ___ 2009 10.64 __ 1959 23.09 __ 1930 13.78 ___ 105 _53 __ 1971-1972 1.09 __ 2019 10.64 __ 1877 23.07 __ 1942 13.76 ___ 104 _54 __ 1988-1989 1.09 __ 1964 10.62 __ 2012 23.07 __ 1945 13.76 ___ 103 _55 __ 1928-1929 1.00 __ 1919 10.58 __ 1882 23.05 __ 1975 13.76 ___ 102 _56 __ 2017-2018 0.96 __ 1999 10.58 __ 1969 23.04 __ 1870 13.73 ___ 101 _57 __ 1989-1990 0.95 __ 1968 10.56 __ 1917 23.01 __ 1895 13.73 ___ 100 _58 __ 1972-1973 0.94 __ 1925 10.54 __ 1934 23.01 __ 1896 13.71 ____ 99 _59 __ 1927-1928 0.93 __ 1974 10.54 __ 2008 23.01 __ 1998 13.69 ____ 98 _60 __ 1923-1924 0.91 __ 1990 10.53 __ 1931 22.99 __ 1952 13.68 ____ 97 _61 __ 1979-1980 0.89 __ 1996 10.53 __ 1895 22.97 __ 1919 13.67 ____ 96 _62 __ 1946-1947 0.86 __ 1993 10.51 __ 1932 22.97 __ 1999 13.66 ____ 95 _63 __ 1973-1974 0.85 __ 2020 10.51 __ 1894 22.95 __ 1899 13.63 ____ 94 _64 __ 2004-2005 0.79 __ 1902 10.42 __ 1933 22.93 __ 1891 13.61 ____ 93 _65 __ 1877-1878 0.72 __ 1994 10.40 __ 1905 22.91 __ 1944 13.60 ____ 92 _66 __ 1914-1915 0.71 __ 1965 10.39 __ 1878 22.90 __ 1950 13.60 ____ 91 _67 __ 1983-1984 0.70 __ 1894 10.34 __ 1977 22.87 __ 1922 13.59 ____ 90 _68 __ 1937-1938 0.68 __ 2007 10.33 __ 1987 22.79 __ 1934 13.58 ____ 89 _69 __ 1890-1891 0.61 __ 1897 10.32 __ 2001 22.75 __ 1909 13.55 ____ 88 _70 __ 1899-1900 0.60 __ 1879 10.31 __ 1935 22.73 __ 1984 13.53 ____ 87 _71 __ 1992-1993 0.57 __ 2001 10.31 __ 2006 22.73 __ 1910 13.50 ____ 86 _72 __ 1895-1896 0.50 __ 2008 10.31 __ 1925 22.68 __ 2006 13.47 ____ 85 _73 __ 1986-1987 0.48 __ 1952 10.29 __ 1883 22.66 __ 1914 13.45 ____ 84 _74 __ 1930-1931 0.41 __ 1988 10.29 __ 1990 22.64 __ 1932 13.45 ____ 83 _75 __ 1907-1908 0.40 __ 2017 10.29 __ 1891 22.63 __ 2014 13.45 ____ 82 _76 __ 1987-1988 0.38 __ 1982 10.25 __ 1936 22.62 __ 1897 13.43 ____ 81 _77 __ 1975-1976 0.33 __ 1954 10.16 __ 1968 22.62 __ 1916 13.42 ____ 80 _78 __ 1888-1889 0.31 __ 1896 10.15 __ 1911 22.60 __ 1928 13.39 ____ 79 median (avg) _79 __ 1924-1925 0.30 __ 1989 10.14 __ 1948 22.60 __ 1913 13.40 ____ 78 median (avg) _80 __ 1954-1955 0.29 __ 1898 10.12 __ 1941 22.58 __ 1969 13.38 ___ 77 _81 __ 1966-1967 0.27 __ 1983 10.11 __ 1913 22.56 __ 1991 13.38 ___ 76 _82 __ 1896-1897 0.21 __ 2018 10.10 __ 1907 22.55 __ 2019 13.38 ___ 75 _83 __ 2008-2009 0.14 __ 1886 10.03 __ 1929 22.55 __ 1935 13.36 ___ 74 _84 __ 1943-1944 0.06 __ 1905 10.03 __ 1873 22.54 __ 1955 13.25 ___ 73 _85 __ 1893-1894 -0.07 __ 1933 9.99 __ 1979 22.50 __ 1995 13.25 ___ 72 _86 __ 1910-1911 -0.07 __ 1970 9.99 __ 1921 22.48 __ 2004 13.25 ___ 71 _87 __ 2009-2010 -0.08 __ 2013 9.99 __ 1887 22.46 __ 1929 13.24 ___ 70 _88 __ 1940-1941 -0.13 __ 1935 9.97 __ 1974 22.45 __ 2013 13.23 ___ 69 _89 __ 1915-1916 -0.14 __ 1944 9.95 __ 1879 22.44 __ 1918 13.21 ___ 68 _90 __ 1957-1958 -0.15 __ 1930 9.94 __ 1967 22.44 __ 1877 13.18 ___ 67 _91 __ 1964-1965 -0.16 __ 1931 9.94 __ 2014 22.44 __ 2003 13.16 ___ 66 _92 __ 1961-1962 -0.18 __ 1948 9.91 __ 1923 22.43 __ 1879 13.15 ___ 65 _93 __ 1963-1964 -0.19 __ 1939 9.85 __ 1942 22.43 __ 2018 13.12 ___ 64 _94 __ 1941-1942 -0.20 __ 1966 9.84 __ 2023 22.42 __ 1923 13.11 ___ 63 _95 __ 2000-2001 -0.25 __ 1906 9.76 __ 1960 22.40 __ 1964 13.10 ___ 62 _96 __ 1902-1903 -0.28 __ 1899 9.74 __ 2017 22.38 __ 1965 13.10 ___ 61 _97 __ 1901-1902 -0.30 __ 1975 9.72 __ 2017 22.38 __ 1966 13.10 ___ 60 _98 __ 1985-1986 -0.30 __ 1912 9.65 __ 1951 22.37 __ 1958 13.09 ___ 59 _99 __ 1955-1956 -0.37 __ 1915 9.64 __ 1954 22.37 __ 2009 13.07 ___ 58 100 __ 1968-1969 -0.40 __ 1934 9.64 __ 1918 22.36 __ 1939 13.03 ___ 57 101 __ 1900-1901 -0.44 __ 2014 9.64 __ 1998 22.31 __ 1993 12.99 ___ 56 102 __ 1926-1927 -0.46 __ 1958 9.63 __ 1884 22.29 __ 1989 12.98 ___ 55 103 __ 1913-1914 -0.48 __ 1927 9.61 __ 1978 22.28 __ 1951 12.96 ___ 54 104 __ 1906-1907 -0.49 __ 1972 9.59 __ 1910 22.27 __ 1986 12.90 ___ 53 105 __ 1925-1926 -0.50 __ 2005 9.53 __ 1904 22.26 __ 1903 12.88 ___ 52 106 __ 1916-1917 -0.55 __ 1937 9.46 __ 1909 22.26 __ 1874 12.87 ___ 51 107 __ 1945-1946 -0.55 __ 1997 9.45 __ 1875 22.24 __ 2002 12.86 ___ 50 108 __ 1898-1899 -0.59 __ 1895 9.43 __ 1947 22.24 __ 1956 12.83 ___ 49 109 __ 2013-2014 -0.60 __ 1971 9.42 __ 1928 22.22 __ 1936 12.82 ___ 48 110 __ 1942-1943 -0.61 __ 1914 9.40 __ 1897 22.13 __ 1980 12.82 ___ 47 111 __ 1870-1871 -0.63 __ 1978 9.39 __ 1890 22.10 __ 2012 12.82 ___ 46 112 __ 1978-1979 -0.63 __ 1996 9.31 __ 1972 22.09 __ 1977 12.78 ___ 45 113 __ 2010-2011 -0.64 __ 1870 9.21 __ 1975 22.09 __ 1890 12.77 ___ 44 114 __ 1980-1981 -0.68 __ 1960 9.20 __ 1922 22.07 __ 1911 12.73 ___ 43 115 __ 1981-1982 -0.75 __ 2003 9.20 __ 1920 22.06 __ 1943 12.73 ___ 42 116 __ 1909-1910 -0.76 __ 1909 9.18 __ 1945 22.06 __ 1937 12.70 ___ 41 117 __ 1921-1922 -0.81 __ 1992 9.18 __ 1989 22.05 __ 1894 12.69 ___ 40 118 __ 1939-1940 -0.82 __ 1961 9.17 __ 1964 22.04 __ 1886 12.64 ___ 39 119 __ 1970-1971 -0.88 __ 1943 9.10 __ 1912 22.03 __ 1907 12.64 ___ 38 120 __ 2003-2004 -0.86 __ 1884 9.08 __ 1894 22.02 __ 1933 12.64 ___ 37 121 __ 1995-1996 -0.95 __ 1932 9.08 __ 1919 22.02 __ 1981 12.55 ___ 36 122 __ 1960-1961 -1.00 __ 1881 9.03 __ 2003 22.01 __ 2008 12.55 ___ 35 123 __ 1934-1935 -1.06 __ 1904 9.03 __ 1940 21.99 __ 1988 12.53 ___ 34 124 __ 1883-1884 -1.08 __ 1920 9.01 __ 1986 21.99 __ 1974 12.52 ___ 33 125 __ 1886-1887 -1.08 __ 1890 8.97 __ 1950 21.97 __ 1987 12.49 ___ 32 126 __ 1911-1912 -1.16 __ 1911 8.97 __ 1963 21.95 __ 1926 12.41 ___ 31 127 __ 1876-1877 -1.18 __ 1923 8.97 __ 2007 21.94 __ 1924 12.39 ___ 30 128 __ 1894-1895 -1.18 __ 1947 8.97 __ 1874 21.91 __ 1882 12.38 ___ 29 129 __ 1885-1886 -1.21 __ 1984 8.94 __ 1985 21.90 __ 1885 12.38 ___ 28 130 __ 1967-1968 -1.31 __ 1882 8.90 __ 1958 21.89 __ 1940 12.31 ___ 27 131 __ 2014-2015 -1.42 __ 1928 8.87 __ 1893 21.88 __ 1997 12.29 ___ 26 132 __ 1958-1959 -1.43 __ 1907 8.85 __ 1956 21.88 __ 2000 12.29 ___ 25 133 __ 1871-1872 -1.50 __ 1877 8.72 __ 1871 21.87 __ 1978 12.28 ___ 24 134 __ 1878-1879 -1.54 __ 1924 8.69 __ 1962 21.86 __ 1992 12.27 ___ 23 135 __ 1944-1945 -1.55 __ 1891 8.56 __ 1997 21.86 __ 1901 12.26 ___ 22 136 __ 2002-2003 -1.55 __ 1901 8.52 __ 2004 21.84 __ 1972 12.22 ___ 21 137 __ 1993-1994 -1.57 __ 1900 8.50 __ 1869 21.83 __ 1967 12.14 ___ 20 138 __ 1922-1923 -1.65 __ 1887 8.49 __ 1889 21.81 __ 1996 12.12 ___ 19 139 __ 1969-1970 -1.73 __ 1869 8.47 __ 1982 21.81 __ 1904 12.11 ___ 18 140 __ 1947-1948 -1.79 __ 1876 8.44 __ 1916 21.80 __ 1893 12.10 ___ 17 141 __ 1887-1888 -1.93 __ 1872 8.41 __ 1888 21.79 __ 1962 11.97 ___ 16 142 __ 1977-1978 -1.94 __ 1873 8.37 __ 1924 21.76 __ 1872 11.96 ___ 15 143 __ 1882-1883 -1.95 __ 1892 8.35 __ 1914 21.75 __ 1925 11.96 ___ 14 144 __ 1884-1885 -2.01 __ 1883 8.22 __ 1996 21.73 __ 1892 11.86 ___ 13 145 __ 1962-1963 -2.03 __ 1926 8.22 __ 1926 21.70 __ 1876 11.76 ___ 12 146 __ 1872-1873 -2.07 __ 1916 8.15 __ 1965 21.62 __ 1880 11.74 ___ 11 147 __ 1892-1893 -2.18 __ 1956 8.14 __ 1886 21.57 __ 1889 11.68 ___ 10 148 __ 1933-1934 -2.21 __ 1950 8.13 __ 1946 21.52 __ 1873 11.52 ___ 09 149 __ 1874-1875 -2.45 __ 1917 8.12 __ 1881 21,51 __ 1883 11.47 ___ 08 150 __ 1904-1905 -2.45 __ 1885 8.03 __ 1992 21.40 __ 1875 11.28 ___ 07 151 __ 1935-1936 -2.64 __ 1940 8.03 __ 1915 21.36 __ 1869 11.26 ___ 06 152 __ 1903-1904 -2.86 __ 1893 7.97 __ 2000 21.18 __ 1888 11.18 ___ 05 153 __ 1880-1881 -2.92 __ 1967 7.69 __ 2009 21.10 __ 1917 11.12 ___ 04 154 __ 1976-1977 -2.95 __ 1875 7.65 __ 1902 21.09 __ 1976 11.07 ___ 03 155 __ 1919-1920 -2.97 __ 1874 7.59 __ 1927 20.57 __ 1871 10.96 ___ 02 156 __ 1917-1918 -3.90 __ 1888 6.94 __ 1903 20.42 __ 1887 10.90 ___ 01 _____________________ ___________________

Tie-breaker system as follows ... (1) Scores are based on total error. (2) Forecasters with same total will be ranked according to these tiebreakers: __ (a) _ Lowest maximum error. For example, 1,1,1,1 beats 2,0,1,1 __ (b) _ Lowest second highest error if (a) fails to separate. 2,1,1,0 beats 2,2,0,0 __ (c) _ Lowest third highest error if (a) and (b) fail, e.g., 3,2,1,1 beats 3,2,2,0. __ (d) _ Order of entry will separate exactly similar errors. 1,1,1,1 on June 7 beats 1,1,1,1 on June 10. +++++++++++++++ Contest will close at end of this week, the current values for seasonal max are DCA __ 94 on June 2nd IAD ___ 93 on June 2nd BWI ___ 97 on June 2nd RIC ___ 89 on Apr 20, 21 (87 on June 2)

The so-called Dark Day in New England, NY state and NJ, was probably caused by forest fire smoke. It was May 19 into May 20, 1780. (1780 also had a very severe hurricane season in the Caribbean) ... Quote from an observer in NJ ... We were here [New Jersey] at the time the “dark day” happened, (19th of May;) it has been said that the darkness was not so great in New-Jersey as in New-England. How great it was there I do not know, but I know that it was very dark where I then was in New-Jersey; so much so that the fowls went to their roosts, the cocks crew and the whip-poor-wills sung their usual serenade; the people had to light candles in their houses to enable them to see to carry on their usual business; the night was as uncommonly dark as the day was. (he may have been referring to the absence of moonlight around a full moon) Reports stated that the darkness did not occur in PA.

Most of the Quebec fires are well to the north of the populated parts of the province and the road network so they have to be fought by crews dropped into the region by air. I believe there are almost a thousand firefighters on the job but this situation has built up over several weeks and a very large area of low-grade forest is now involved. I would think the fires might be more controlled by future rainfalls than any human efforts, these fires are too widespread and remote for human efforts to be fully effective. It is normally quite a wet region in summer so fingers crossed that the blocking patterns recede. Causes include the long dry spell in spring, scattered lightning strikes, and unfortunately arson cannot be ruled out in all cases. Arson seems to be a suspect in about 10-25% of wildfires across N America nowadays, motives include seeking work on fire crews, dramatizing climate change, and mental illness problems. An Alberta woman was recently convicted of arson related to 54 fires that she apparently started in central Alberta in 2021. It doesn't take much when the weather has been hot and dry for weeks, and 2021 had the heat dome. I don't suspect much campfire spread or train track sparking behind these Quebec fires, as those potential causes would be confined to the southern margins of the fire zone. Butts tossed out a window start as many fires as lightning apparently. Many Canadians suspect the 2016 Fort Mac fires were deliberately set, if not, they had a human cause as the origin was traced back to a campsite west of Fort McMurray and there had been no lightning (those fires began around April 29-30th). Meanwhile parts of western Canada have seen some improvement in their fire situations, thanks to rainfalls and suppression, once again a lot of the Alberta fires were well north of the population grid and mostly well away from roads. Locally our air quality is good because so far there are very few fires in the Pac NW states and we have a southerly air flow here.

We had this same air quality emergency in 2021 about a month after the heat dome, it was much warmer than you currently have it, around 90F but same air quality (readings above 300). I got very ill during that spell, not sure if it was COVID or the smoke affecting my lungs, but perhaps both. If you're at risk, take care. It took me about three weeks to recover fully from the lung problems. At least if the upper level flow returns to wessterly or southwessterly this smoke should stop flowing south but it may take a few days to vent it all away.