Roger Smith

So I only need one significant, or two lesser events, standard IAD-DCA differentials, and no snow RIC? I like my chances, but will not be too surprised if I'm near the lead for a few days and then pass off to a bigger total forecaster in a march K-u. Pattern a bit like 1984, could be mild for most of Feb and then cold again in march. Wish I had a 3" cushion for RIC.

I hope everyone took the over ... still time to take it at KC, good weather and those two offenses ... somebody wins 57-56.

What's expected from clipper on Wed? Looks like a band of 2-4" potential ending with blowing snow Wed nite into Thurs morning, blowing snow and flash freeze could be biggest impact? (VT, w and ne ma into s nh will see higher impacts than CT/RI/se mass)

JAN scoring ^^^ ===================== FEB forecasts (see post #1 for details) vvvvv

A few odds and ends ... there already is a year zero in astronomical tables, but as stated in an earlier post, not in historical time frames ... If you looked up an astronomical event listed as being in January, 4 BC, that event would be in 5 BC (or BCE as some say) if compared to any historical accounts. Of course, people alive then were not aware of the reason for numbering the year 1 A.D. as we do (and have done since about 450 A.D.), instead, if one were a citizen of the Roman empire, years would have been numbered from the founding of Rome, and if an observant Jew, even as today, from very ancient Biblical events (it was already a year in the 3000's). First calculations of the probable birth year of Jesus were off by about four years, so they identified "25 Dec of 1 B.C." as what by their logic was actually 25 Dec of 4 A.D. (an error crept into calculations of periods of rule of Roman emperors after Augustus Caesar). Also it is quite likely that Jesus was born not in late December but closer to end of February if we are to believe that sheperds were out in fields (to tend to newborn lambs in season). It is quite possible that the actual birth date of Jesus was something like Feb 25, 4 B.C. (or 5 B.C.) in a calendar that drops the year zero, or Feb 25, 3 B.C. (or 4 B.C.) set in the astronomical calendar system. ... ... On a different topic, at 0.45" at NYC, still 0.13" below driest January (1981), and at 30.4 F currently colder than final values of 101 of 155 previous Jans, and equal to one (1903). If we apply corrections for urban heat island, 2025 is presently colder than another 15 that, while colder in absolute terms, would likely be warmer if experienced with present urban heat island (using a rather conservative 2.0 F total correction applied in ten stages to data after 1881, and flat-lined since 1981). If the month ends a bit colder at say 30.0 F, it will then rank t51 coldest of 156 (with 1923), and after applying u.h.i. corrections, at 28.0 F In pre-1881 no-heat-island comparison, ranking 39th coldest, just ahead of 1984 and 2015. So a fairly impressive cold January and it could end up near top two or three driest also, quite a similar outcome overall to 1963, 1970 and 1981 (rank colder by 2-3 F).

Also -8 at ALB and POu, -13 CON.

__ Final Scoring for January 2025 __ based on anomalies posted above ... IAH, DEN and SEA have boosted scores (max 60) ... scores are either from a "minimum progression" (60, 55, 50 etc) or raw score whichever is higher. The minimum progression value can be increased if a forecast is within 2 or 4 by raw score of the next higher score. The most any score can be boosted is 4 relative to its minimum progression value. Normal and consensus are scored from closest equivalent forecast scores, Persistence is only given raw scores. FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS wxdude64 ________________________84 _ 96 _ 98 __ 278 __ 94 _ 78 _ 38^__ 210 _ 488 __47^_ 34 _ 30^ __ 111 ____599 BKViking _________________________ 86 _ 96 _ 78 __ 260 __ 96 _ 98 _ 43^__ 237 _ 497 __33^_ 32 _ 28^__ 093 ____590 ___ Consensus __________________ 86 _ 96 _ 82 __ 264 __ 96 _ 98 _ 32^__226 _ 490 _ 33^_ 32 _ 30^__ 095 ___ 585 wxallannj ________________________ 70 _ 80 _ 96 __ 246 __ 90 _ 66 _ 50^__ 206 _ 452 __ 50^_ 48 _ 35^__ 133 ____ 585 so_whats_happening _____________78 _ 88 _ 70 __ 236 __ 78 _ 80 _ 55^__ 213 _ 449 __ 60^_ 20 _ 48^__ 128 ____ 577 hudsonvalley21 __________________ 72 _ 84 _ 92 __ 248 __ 70 _ 74 _ 25^__ 169 __417 __ 60^_ 38 _ 50^__ 148 ____ 565 RodneyS _________________________ 90 _ 68 _ 86 __ 244 __ 64 _ 74 __20^__ 158 _ 402 __ 33^_ 64 _ 60^__157 ____559 DonSutherland1 __________________ 66 _100 _98 __ 264 __ 88 _ 72 _ 32^__ 192 _ 456 __ 35^_ 12 _ 28^ __ 075 ____ 531 Scotty Lightning _________________ 94 _ 80 _ 42 __ 216 __ 62 _ 58 _ 60^__ 180 _ 396 __ 15^ _ 26 _ 48^__ 089 ____485 RJay ______________________________76 _ 90 _ 82 __ 248 __ 98 _ 82 _ 15^___195 _ 443 __ 23^_ 00 _ 10^ __ 033 ____476 Roger Smith ______________________ 94 _100 _ 82 __ 276 __ 82 _ 98 _ 02^__ 182 _ 458 __ 00 _ 00 _ 15^__ 015 ____473 maxim ____________________________ 84 _ 80 _ 98 __ 262 __ 48 _ 58 _ 00 __ 106 _ 368 __ 10^_ 06 _ 55^__ 071 ____ 439 ___ Normal ________________________ 34 _ 50 _ 78 __ 162 __ 48 _ 18 __ 15^ __ 081 _ 243 __ 38^_ 76 _ 58^__ 172 ____ 415 Tom _______________________________52 _ 60 _ 64 __ 176 __ 70 _ 64 _ 48^__ 182 __ 358 __ 40^_ 00 _ 08^__ 048 ____406 StormchaserChuck _______________ 60 _ 62 _ 50 __ 172 __ 12 __ 82 _ 15^__ 109 _ 281 __ 05^_ 00 _ 03^__ 008 ____ 289 - - - - Persistence (Dec 2024) ___________30 _ 68 _ 86 __ 184 __ 18 _ 00 _ 00 __ 018 _ 202 __ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ____ 202 ____________________________ Extreme forecasts so far ... DCA, NYC, ORD and ATL did not qualify. BOS was a shared win for three tied at 98 including second warmest -1.0, RodneyS takes a loss with warmest (-0.4). IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA all go to coldest forecasts ... ... in order, Scotty Lightning (IAH), hudsonvalley21 tied so_whats_happening (DEN), Rodney S (PHX, SEA). ... Normal also wins for PHX. Forecasts for January 2025 __ FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ Normal _________________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 wxallannj __________________________-1.8 _ -1.5 _ -1.3 ___ -2.1 _ -2.4 _ -1.2 ___ -0.7 _ +1.4 _ +2.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________________ -1.9 _ -1.7 _ -1.5 ___ -1.1 __-2.8 _ -0.4 ___ -1.2 _ +1.9 _ +1.4 maxim ____________________________ -2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.0 ____0.0 _ -2.0 _ +1.1 ___ +2.4 _ +3.5 _ +1.0 RodneyS __________________________-2.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __ -0.8 _ -2.8 _-0.2 ___ +0.9 _ +0.6 _-0.3 Roger Smith ______________________ -3.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 __ -3.5 _ -4.0 _ +1.0 ___ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5 Scotty Lightning __________________ -3.0 _ -3.5 _ -4.0 __ -4.5 _ -2.0 _ -2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 BKViking __________________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.2 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _ -1.0 ___ +0.9 _ +2.2 _ +3.0 ___ Consensus __________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.0 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _-0.7 __+0.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.9 wxdude64 ________________________ -4.1 _ -2.7 __ -1.2 __ -2.3 _ -5.2 _ -0.9 ___ -0.5 _ +2.1 _ +2.9 so_whats_happening ______________-4.4 _ -3.1 _ -2.6 __ -3.7 _ -5.1 __ -1.6 ___ -1.2 __ +2.8 _ +1.5 RJay ______________________________ -4.5 _ -3.0 _ -2.0 __ -2.5 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.0 DonSutherland1 ___________________ -5.0 _ -2.5 _ -1.0 __ -2.0 _ -5.5 _ -0.7 ___ +0.8 _ +3.2 _ +3.0 StormchaserChuck ________________-5.3 _ -4.4 _ -3.6 __ -7.0 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +5.7 _ +6.2 _ +4.2 Tom _______________________________ -5.7 _ -4.5 _ -2.9 __ -4.1 _ -5.9 __ -1.1 ____ -0.1 _ +4.2 _ +4.1 Persistence (Dec 2024) ___________ +0.2 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __+1.5 _+1.5 _ +5.7 ___+8.2 _ +6.5 _ +2.0 ____________________________

Secret Canadian weather obs not shared with south Canadians.

Looks to me like 10-15 in of snow possible along coast of Carolinas as low begins to explosively deepen well to south and inland ridge holds. About 5 inches in tidewater VA s.w. to central SC.

This Atlantic low will go on to cause damaging winds (70-110 knots) in Ireland on Friday. ... model consensus is that it deepens to 940 mbs near 20W and core of strongest winds slams into west coast of Ireland 0600 Friday. ... moderate to extreme damage is possible in western counties and could in worst case model scenarios extend across to Dublin also.

That's due to the moderating influence of Lake Champlain, or possibly hot air blowing in from Ottawa, I presume. /jk

After the 1899 snowfall in n FL, TLH dropped to -2 F (IIRC) and ice floes were also observed exiting the Mississippi delta into the Gulf of Eskimo.

Gulf of Mexico Gulf of America Gulf of Eskimo

Don, how many measurable snowfalls have there been at Mobile and New Orleans? Any chance of a top ten listing? I know there were big falls in Feb 1895 and 1899.

Could I suggest an edit to thread title (to 1/21 - 1/22)? Wondering if arctic front intrusion into n FL is overdone on some models, could stay a cold rain with sleet in s GA and snow into c GA? (think it would snow in FL panhandle west of TLh so sleet in border counties to n of JAX).

Weak arctic front is being wrapped into core as low enters Atlantic and a gradient fr S- to S+ conditions will develop in c/n NJ, NYC and w LI, expect 2-3" ISP and JFK, 3-5" LGA-NYC-EWR and 5-8" parts of n NJ and seNY, w CT.

Largest snowfalls at NYC for Jan 18, 19 and 20 For Jan 18, record daily snow was only 5.0" (1875); tied for lowest daily record in Jan. (6, 9 also 5.0" records) For Jan 19, record daily snow 9.0" 1936. (a total snow of 9.2" 18-19) For Jan 20, record daily snow 11.1" 1978. (a total snow of 13.6" 19-20) Other significant snowfalls: 9.9" Jan 19-20 1961 (4.4" + 5.5") 7.0" Jan 20 1925 6.0" Jan 19 1869 5.7" Jan 20 1937 4.0" Jan 19 1886 4.0" Jan 18-19, 2009 (2.2" + 1.8") Before NYC records began, a blizzard hit n.e. states on Jan 19, 1857, 18" was recorded by Caswell in Providence RI, and it was followed by extreme cold (-14 F on 21st and 22nd). Daytime readings stayed below zero F. Jan 1857 was coldest on record at Toronto (1840 to present) and Feb 1857 became very mild with severe ice jam flooding reported in Ontario, New York state and New England. Temps rose into 60s and some heavy rainfalls were reported; march went back to being very cold and the entire spring was cold.

The second of the three "threats" looks way suppressed and OTS, but the third one looks interesting. The first one is beginning to lock into a 3-6" event.

This is a scaled down version of historical big coastal storms followed by severe cold, so far no guidance raises the intensity to a major snowstorm (12"+) but 4 to 7 inches ain't too shabby. I wonder if there will be a last minute intensification trend on track already pretty solidly set? I will say 4.5" DCA, 6.0" IAD and BWI, jacks a bit north near 8" if no last ditch intensification, probably the flow is too flat to allow for it. That's good in a way, colder air won't be forced to retreat, it's a glider and a slider.

Is there any easy answer to the question, what is the difference between an "A.I." weather model and the regular models? At first glance, it would see that all weather models are "A.I."

Anomalies and projections ... _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ (anom1-16) ______ -4.2 _-2.3 _ -1.1 ___ -3.8 _-4.9 _-4.1 ___ -4.2 _ +0.9 _-1.0 __ (p anom 1-31) ____ -5.0 _-3.5 _ -2.5 ___ -6.5 _-6.5 _-5.5 ___ -5.0 __ 0.0 _-2.5 ___ final anoms _____ -3.3 _-2.5 _ -1.1 ____ -2.6 _-4.1 _-4.4 ___ -5.9 _-1.2 _-3.7 Very cold intervals for all locations expected to dominate second half, PHX stays closer to normal and will be near +1.5 before seeing any negatives, IAH possibly too conservative if snow cover develops as it can create -25 anoms for several days, DEN is also going to recover to around -2 before dropping back, and SEA will have a very cold final week and drop a bit further below, despite possibly no snow cover in Puget Sound region (it has not snowed s of Anacortes WA so far in winter 24-25 at low elevations, lots above 1200' ... a little snow was reported in BLI and YVR in Dec, bare now). (22nd _ IAH and DEN were reduced by 1.0 in projections for scoring) (Feb 1st _ Final anomalies posted above, scoring adjustments in progress) Snowfall contest updates are now re-posted on Feb 5.

A very dry first two weeks (0.10" at NYC). On pace to break record for driest Jan, top 25 are: _01 __ 0.58 __ 1981 _02 __ 0.66 __ 1970 _03 __ 0.77 __ 1955 _04 __ 0.94 __ 1876 _05 __ 0.96 __ 1896 _06 __ 1.00 __ 1985 _07 __ 1.10 __ 1969 _08 __ 1.28 __ 1916 _09 __ 1.39 __ 1967 _10 __ 1.54 __ 1956 _11 __ 1.65 __ 1954 _12 __ 1.66 __ 1901 _13 __ 1.68 __ 1992 _14 __ 1.70 __ 1957 _15 __ 1.72 __ 1980 _16 __ 1.78 __ 1933 _17 __ 1.86 __ 1946 t18 __ 1.87 __ 1928 t18 __ 1.87 __ 1984 t20 __ 1.88 __ 1872 t20 __ 1.88 __ 1961 t22 __ 1.93 __ 1963 t22 __ 1.93 __ 2002 t22 __ 1.93 __ 2020 _25 __ 2.01 __ 1894 __________ We'll see where 2025 finishes, if among these.

I've heard of the illuminati and now we have the eliminati, a group that may have a few more members by next week.

Severe cold to follow snow (or no snow) window.

Pattern looks like 3-6" Jan 12-13 followed by 2-3 days of severe cold Jan 14-16. It can still evolve into 5-10" if trof digs a bit better.