Roger Smith

Actually Cedar Key has suffered from three major hurricane landfalls, in 1896, 1950 and 1985. Further north is where they have not been hit in the past. My guess for landfall is 20 miles east of St Marks at cat-3 intensity around 15z.

I hope the model consensus proves accurate and this doesn't do a Charley-2004 style swerve towards Tampa Bay; in any case the impact there will be considerable given (a) we are closing in on full moon, (b) the track is close enough to permit strong TS level winds to blow for many hours from the south, all pointing to a considerable storm surge into the Bay. Even if the track was along the eastern edge of the cone, it would be bad news for the TBSP metro and any further east could be disastrous. An eastward jog means a considerably earlier landfall also. Instead of Wednesday morning near Cedar Key it would be closer to Tuesday midnight around Dunedin FL. Let's hope this does not happen.

With the arrival of Idalia, and Franklin at hurricane status, the current count is 10/2/0. If forecasts verify the count could soon be 10/3/1. If so, this is what the contest field will need to happen after Idalia: (in brackets, what is needed if Idalia achieves major status... a few forecasts cannot verify and best possible counts are shown, along with highest score possible now ... all other forecasts could verify as shown and their highest possible scores remain 100). Forecast outcomes in brackets are best scoring outcome situations and do not create the original forecast totals. Because number of storms is scored at 1/2 deductions of canes and majors, most of bracketed outcomes are for storms and not canes. Some redistribute errors 3:1 or more to get maximum possible score from any outcome. (edit _ Wed 30th 06z _ Count now 10/3/2 as Idalia reached major status _ table below edited to show only the values previously in brackets) (edit _ Sunday Sept 3rd 06z _ Count now 12/3/2 as Jose and Katia appeared, Jose already absorbed by Franklin). Also Gert has redeveloped after a few days of dormant near-extinction. I have removed the table of storms required to reach seasonal totals as it is becoming too complicated by most now having an imbalance of storms and hurricanes, so we'll just go with the simpler "your score as of now" table that will continue to be updated as required. ) (edit _ Sept 7 _ 02z ... table edited for Lee, and Lee became a major hurricane, count 13/4/3) (edit _ Sept 7 _ 23z ... table again edited for Margot, assuming eventual non-major hurricane, count 14/5/3). (edit _ Sept 17 _ 06z _ table again edited for Nigel, assuming eventual non-major hurricane, count 15/6/3). (edit _ Sept 18 _ 17z _ table now contains alternate scoring to apply to possibility of Nigel becoming major (15/6/4). edit again, withdrawn below ... (edit _ Sept 22 _ 00z _ table now contains potential scoring for a 16th tropical storm, replacing Nigel as major whIch did not happen. (potential count 16/6/3) (edit _ Sept 23 _ 06z _ table now edited for Ophelia, count 16/6/3. and potential 17th storm (Philippe) reaching hurricane intensity (17 7 3). Still some chance for Ophelia to reach hurricane intensity before landfall around 12z. If so, will adjust current scores and potential scores. (edit _ Sept 24 _ 00z _ table now edited for Philippe, count 17/6/3. alternate scoring still for 17/7/3.) (edit _ Sept 26 _ 21z _ table again edited for possible Rina as storm and later hurricane, and taking away eventual hurricane status for Philippe _ net addition of one storm to reach 18/7/3 from current 17/6/3. (edit _ Sept 29 _ 15z _ table edited for current score with Rina now a tropical storm. Leaving potential scoring option same for now, will require one of two active TS to become a 'cane, but at present some chance neither become a cane (less so, two 'canes also possible). (edit _ Oct 7 _ 06z _ table edited for actual results of P, R ... no 'cane ... and speculation about 19th named storm. these forecasts and potential max scores will be updated as required. (19 8 4 speculation ended due to weak outcomes, new post further into thread now speculates about final count and scoring) ... _______________________________________ (original forecasts) (count now 18 6 3) ... total in brackets would replace score shown for 19 6 3. NOTE: Post is no longer being updated. See replacement post dated Oct 11, 2023. forum _FORECASTER __________ storms _hurr _major __ (your current score) (will be adjusted as needed) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ err s _ h _ m _ score (100-sum err) IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -3 -15 -15 ___ 67.0 (68.5) AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -3 -15 -3 ____ 79.0 (80.5) --- ___ UK Met Office ____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____-1.5 -15 -3 __ 80.5 (81.5) AM _ Roger Smith (19) ___________ 19 ___ 12 ____ 4 _____-0.5 -21 -1 __ 77.5 (78.0) AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) ____ 19 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____-0.5 -15 -3 __ 81.5 (82.0) IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) _______________18 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ _0 -6 -1 ____ 93.0 (92.5) AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 _____ -0.5 -10 -1 __88.5 (87.5) NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____ 17 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -0.5 -10 _0 __89.5 (88.5) NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4)__ 16 ____11 ____ 5 _____ -1.5 -15 -3 __80.5 (79.0) NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) ____ 16 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -1.5 -10 _0 __88.5 (87.0) IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 _____ -1.5 -6 -3 ___89.5 (88.0) AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ -1.5 -6 -1 ___91.5 (90.0) AM _ wkd (4) ______________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -1.5 -1 -1 ___96.5 (95.0) AM _ solidicewx (28) ______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -1.5 -1 -1 ___96.5 (95.0) AM _ yotaman (31) ________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -1.5 -1 _0 ___97.5 (96.0) AM _ hotair (18) ___________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -1.5 _0 _0 ___98.5 (97.0) AM _ wxdude64 (15) ______________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -1.5 -1 -1 ____96.5 (95.0) AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) ________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -1.5 -1 -1 ____96.5 (95.0) AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) ___________ 15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -3 -3 -1 ____ 93.0 (91.0) AM _ diggiebot (12) ________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -3 -1 _0 ____ 96.0 (94.0) AM _ Torch Tiger (23) ______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -3 -1 _0 ____ 96.0 (94.0) --- ___ CSU ________________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 ______ -3 -1 _0 ___ 96.0 (94.0) --- ___ TWC ________________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 ______ -3 -1 _0 ___ 96.0 (94.0) AM _ Stebo (26) ___________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 2 ______ -3 -1 -1 ___ 95.0 (93.0) AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) __________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 ______ -3 _0 -1 ___ 96.0 (94.0) AM _ Marsman (14) ________________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 ______ -3 -3 -1 ___ 93.0 (91.0) --- ___ NOAA median _______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ___-3.8 -1 -0.4 __ 94.8 (92.6) AM _ JConsor (13) __________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -5 -3 -1 ____ 91.0 (88.5) AM _ nvck (45) _____________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 _____ -5 -3 _0 ____ 92.0 (89.5) IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _________________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ____ 94.0 (91.5) AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _________ 14 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ____ 95.0 (92.5) AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) ___________14 ____ 5 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ____ 94.0 (91.5) _______ Consensus _________________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-5.3 -0.7 -0.2__93.8 (91.2) AM _ Yoda (40) _____________________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 ___ 90.5 (87.5) AM _ Superstorm93 (22) ___________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 ___ 90.5 (87.5) AM _ George BM (41) _______________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____ -7.5 _0 _0 ___ 92.5 (89.5) AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____ -7.5 _0 -1 ____ 91.5 (88.5) AM _ North hills wx (24) _____________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -7.5 -1 -1 ____ 90.5 (87.5) AM _ Newman (30) _________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -7.5 -1 -1 ____ 90.5 (87.5) AM _ Alfoman (25) __________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -7.5 -1 -3 ____ 88.5 (85.5) AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) _____________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -7.5 -1 -3 ____ 88.5 (85.5) NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _________________12 ____ 11 ____ 1 ____-10.5 -15 -3 __ 71.5 (68.0) AM _ rclab (43) ______________________12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -3 _0 ___ 86.5 (83.0) AM _ Rhino 16 (2) ___________________ 12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 (85.0) AM _ crownweather (11) ____________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____-10.5 _0 -1 ____ 88.5 (85.0) AM _ Cat Lady (7) ___________________12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 90.5 (87.0) AM _ RJay (17) ______________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-10.5 -1 -1 ____ 87.5 (84.0) AM _ cheese007 (35) _______________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-10.5 -1 -1 ____ 87.5 (84.0) AM _ Eyewall (27) __________________ 12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____-10.5 -3 -1 ____ 85.5 (82.0) AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) ______ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -1 -1 _____ 84.0 (80.0) AM _ mob1 (8) ______________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -1 -1 _____ 84.0 (80.0) AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _______________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -1 -1 _____ 84.0 (80.0) AM _ Matthew70 (32) ______________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 _____ 82.0 (78.0) AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5 __4.5___2 ____-16 -1.9 -1 ____ 81.1 (76.9) AM _ cnimbus (6) ___________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -18 -1 -1 ______ 80.0 (75.5) AM _ GaWx (21) _____________________ 10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-18 -1 -1 ______ 80.0 (75.5) NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ______10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-18 -3 -1 ______ 78.0 (73.5) AM _ The Iceman (39) _______________10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___-18 -3 -3 ______ 76.0 (71.5) AM _ Olafminesaw (9) ________________7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___-33 -6 -1 _____ 60.0 (54.0) ____________________________________ 54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts) <<< SCORES ABOVE WILL BE ADJUSTED EVERY TIME COUNT INCREASES >>> NOTE: Post is no longer being updated. See replacement post dated Oct 11, 2023.

Although it was close, Friday produced two 97F readings at IAD and RIC, not moving the contest scoring however. If the heat dome ever does reposition east before 11-15 Sep it could still touch 100F. Seeing faint signs of this around Sep 8-9 at present. So contest cannot be declared final yet.

Predict temp anomaly (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 average, for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA deadline 06z Friday September 1st. ... wxdude64 posted early for September in previous contest: DCA: -0.2 NYC: -0.5 BOS: -0.6 ORD: -0.3 ATL: +0.8 IAH: +1.2 DEN: +1.4 PHX: +2.1 SEA: +0.3

Violent line of storms close to derecho intensity racing east in s PA and look like they are heading for n MD within hours.

Collect the entire set ... four weak to moderate tropical storms in the past few days have swollen the count to 9/1/0. Some chance of Franklin becoming a hurricane next week, would then go to 9/2/0 or even (gasp) 9/2/1. Good luck to all of us getting to our numbers from 9/1/0.

Final scoring for August 2023 Scoring estimates based on latest posted provisional anomalies. DCA not adjusted yet. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTAL __ anomalies _______________ -0.7 _-1.1 _-0.9 ___ _ _ +0.5_+2.4_+5.8 __ __ __ __ __ +1.3_+4.4_+2.5 DonSutherland1 _____________ 84 _ 88 _ 92 __ 264 __ 94 _ 92 _ 40 __ 226_ 490 _ 88 _ 52 _ 92 __ 232 ___722 wxdude64 ___________________92 _ 96 _ 80 __ 268 __ 76 _ 88 _ 36 __ 200 _ 468 _ 58 _ 54 _ 86 __ 198 ___ 666 hudsonvalley21 ______________78 _ 76 _ 76 __ 230 __ 92 _ 84 _ 28 __ 204 _ 434 _ 82 _ 42 _ 84 __ 208 ___ 642 RJay ________________________ 66 _ 58 _ 62 __ 186 __ 90 _ 72 _ 62 __ 224 _ 410 _ 66 _ 82 _ 70 __ 218 ___ 628 ___ Consensus ______________ 72 _ 66 _ 74 __ 212 __ 94 _ 76 _ 32 ___ 202 _ 414 _ 74 _ 54 _ 84 __ 212 ___ 626 Tom _________________________ 92 _ 82 _ 86 __ 260 __ 88 _ 44 _ 06 __ 138 _ 398 _ 96 _ 38 _ 78 __ 212 ___ 610 RodneyS ____________________ 90 _ 82 _ 94 __ 266 __ 98 _ 44 _ 24 __ 166 _ 432 _ 78 _ 38 _ 58 __ 174 ___ 606 wxallannj ____________________ 62 _ 58 _ 66 __ 186 __ 82 _ 92 _ 26 __ 200 _ 386 _ 70 _ 56 _ 92 __ 218 ___ 604 BKViking ____________________ 58 _ 50 _ 52 __ 160 __ 94 _ 72 _ 40 __ 206 _ 364 _ 78 _ 62 _ 94__ 234 ___ 600 Roger Smith ________________ 56 _ 48 _ 48 __ 152 __ 70 _ 96 _ 52 __ 218 _ 370 _ 34 _ 82 _ 90__ 206 ___ 576 so_whats_happening ________62 _ 58 _ 62 __ 182 __ 80 _ 78 _ 32 __ 190 _ 372 _ 50 _ 62 _ 76 __ 188 ___ 560 Rhino16 _____________________ 92 _ 94 _ 94 __280 __ 78 _ 44 _ 00 __ 122 _ 402 _ 64 _ 00 _ 64 __ 128 ___ 530 ___ Normal ___________________86 _ 78 _ 82 __ 246 __ 90 _ 52 _ 00 __ 142 _ 388 __74 _ 12 _ 50 __ 136 ___ 524 Scotty Lightning ____________ 66 _ 58 _ 72 __ 196 __ 90 _ 72 _ 12 ___ 174 _ 370 _ 64 _ 42 _ 40 __ 146 ___ 516 ______________________________ _ _ _ _ _ persistence (July anoms) _ 74 _ 48 _ 56 __ 178 __ 96 _ 96 _ 46 __ 238 _ 416 __ 50 _ 44 _ 78 __ 172 ___ 588 ==================== EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA _ (-0.7) _ wxdude64 at -1.1 and Tom, Rhino16 at -0.3 all share a win as RodneyS at -1.2 takes a loss. NYC _ (-1.1) _ wxdude64 at -1.3 has a win as he took a narrow lead over Rhino16 at -0.8 (not a loss situation). BOS _ (-0.9) _ wxdude64 (-1.9) takes a loss and Rhino16, RodneyS (-0.6) share a win. ORD _ At +0.5, the outcome does not qualify as extreme. ATL _ (+2.4) _ Roger Smith at +2.2 has a win. IAH _ (+5.8) _ A win for RJay (+3.5). DEN _ (+1.3) the outcome does not qualify as extreme, third highest forecast was high score. PHX _ (+4.4) is a shared win for RJay and Roger Smith at +3.5. SEA _ (+2.5) is a win for BKViking at +2.2, and by a narrow margin, a loss for wxallannj (+2.9) ___________________________________________________ (forecasts) FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _SEA Roger Smith __________________ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.7 __ +2.0 _+2.2 _+3.0 __ -2.0 _+3.5 _+2.0 BKViking ______________________+1.4 _+1.4 _+1.5 __ +0.8 _+1.0 _+2.4 __ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.2 so_whats_happening __________+1.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.3 _+2.0 __ -1.2 _+2.5 _+1.3 wxallannj ______________________+1.2 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ -0.4 _+2.0 _+1.7 __ -0.2 _+2.2 _+2.9 RJay __________________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _ +3.5 __ +3.0 _+3.5 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ -0.5 _+1.5 _-0.5 ___ Consensus ________________+0.7 _+0.6 _+0.4 __+0.2_+1.2 _+2.0 ____0.0 _+2.1 _+1.7 hudsonvalley21 _______________+0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 __+0.1 _+1.6 _+1.8 ___+0.4 _+1.5 _+1.7 DonSutherland1 ______________ +0.1 _-0.5 _-0.5 __ +0.2 _+2.0_+2.4 ___+0.7 _+2.0 _+2.1 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 Tom __________________________ -0.3 _-0.2 _-0.2 ___-0.1 _ -0.4 _+0.6 __ +1.1 _ +1.3 _+1.4 Rhino16 _______________________-0.3 _-0.8 _-0.6 ___ -0.6 _-0.4 _-0.3 __ -0.5 _-0.6 _+0.7 wxdude64 ____________________-1.1 _ -1.3 _ -1.9 ___ -0.7 _+1.8 _+2.2 __ -0.8 _+2.1 _+1.8 RodneyS ______________________-1.2 _-0.2 _-0.6 ___+0.4 _-0.4 _+1.6 __+0.2 _+1.3 _+0.4 ______________________________ _ _ _ _ warmest and coolest forecasts color coded; all sets include some lower than Normal. This month I will score persistence (July anomalies) ... those are shown below ____ persistence ______________ +0.6 _+1.5 _+1.3 ___+0.3 _+2.2 _+2.7 __ -1.2 _+7.2 _+1.4

Just for interest, here is the complete list of years (at NYC) that had their annual maximum later than today's date August 21st ... they are arranged by dates of occurrence and within same dates, from warmest to coolest values. Ties within this range of dates are shown in italics. Ties with earlier values are shown underlined. Notes include any record highs that were not annual maxima. Absence of such a note implies that the warmest annual max shown is also that day's record high. Date ___ YEAR(s) ___ Max _______ notes (including record highs not annual maxima) Aug 21 __ 1869 ___ 95 _______________________ 96F 1955 Aug 22 __ 1916 ___ 95 ___________ Aug 23 __ (no years had max) _______________ 92F 1916 Aug 24 __ 1972 ___ 94 (tied July 19 & 23, 1972 94F) Aug 25 __ (no years had max) _______________ 95F 1948 Aug 26 __ 1948 __ 103 Aug 27 __ 1960 _ 91 (tied July 12, 1960 91F) __ 101F 1948 Aug 28 __ 1973 ___ 98 __ tied 30th __________ 100F 1948 Aug 29 __ (no years had max) ________________ 99F 1953 Aug 30 __ 1973 ___ 98 __ tied 28th ___________ 98F also in 1953 Aug 31 __ (no years had max) ________________100F 1953 Sep 1 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1953 Sep 2 ____ 1953 __ 102 ____ 1932 _ 96 ___ 2014 _ 92 Sep 3 ____ 1929 ___ 99 ____ 1921 _ 96 _________ Sep 4 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1929 Sep 5 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1985 Sep 6 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1881 Sep 7 ____ 1881 ___101 Sep 8 ____ 2015 ___ 97 Sep 9 ____ 1915 ___ 94 ____ 1884 _ 91 (tied June 21, Aug 20, Sep 10 1884 91F) Sep 10 ___ 1897 ___ 93 (tied July 6, 1897 93F) ___ 1884 _ 91 (tied June 21, Aug 20, Sep 9 1884 91F) ________________________________________________ 97F 1931 and 1983 Sep 11 ___ 1983 ___ 99 __ 1931 ___ 99 __ (1931 tied Aug 7 99F) Sep 12 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1961 Sep 13 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1952 Sep 14 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1931 Sep 15 ___ 1927 ___ 92 (tied four dates in July 1927 92F) ___ Sep 16 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1915 Sep 17 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1991 Sep 18 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 91F 1891 Sep 19 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1983 Sep 20 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1895, 1983 Sep 21 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 95F 1895 Sep 22 ___ 1914 ___ 95 (tied May 27, 1914 95F) ___ 1970 _ 94 ___ record 95F 1895, 1914 Sep 23 ___ 1895 ___ 97 ____________________ also 96F May 31, June 1, 2 1895 ___________________________ Also 93F on Sep 1st to 3rd 1898 but annual max was 100F in July 3. Records after Sep 23 generally near 90F, sooner or later a year could set an annual max in October as 94F in 1941 is above annual maxima of several years.

95 at RIC, 94 at IAD and 92 at DCA, BWI on Monday Aug 21st. No changes to contest. Friday another weak pulse of heat breaks away from the source region but I don't see much potential for it to be warmer than today. I am expecting some record warmth in the autumn but that has to come before mid-September to produce warmer temperatures than our current contest values.

I recall 602 dm from around July 1995 and of course then there's July 1936 before upper air soundings. Want to bet it stayed below 603 dm with 120F readings on several occasions? Maybe those are just August records?

Looking a bit more like mid-90s than 100F now, there isn't much push on the heat and locations upstream have remained in mid-90s, but there will be lots of sunshine in the MA region tomorrow, I think. Will be checking to see if any of the four locations need an update. Sort of expecting not.

Still looking possible to reach 100F on Monday, 582 dm thickness reaches central VA, pattern looks generally dry and some downslope component is present with windshift line followed by apparent back door cold front Tuesday, leading to several days in 85-90 F range, low humidity, but the heat will not be pushed a long way south or west and could return later in the week. The next peak in thickness values (according to GFS guidance) is on Friday 25th (also just shy of 582 dm), air mass looks a bit more humid with that return to heat, may be more like 95-98 F.

Summer Maximum Contest __ Update moved to September contest

Updates and projections to end of month from GFS guidance ... ____________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _SEA (15th) ____ (anom 14d) ____ -1.6 __-1.0 ___ 0.0 ___+0.1 _+1.4 _+5.9 ___-3.1 _ +5.1 _ +3.2 (22nd) ___ (anom 21d) ____ -1.2 __-1.1*___-0.5 ___-0.2 _+1.1 _+6.0 ___+0.3 _ +3.9 _ +3.6 * adjusted for missing data 21st. (15th) ____ (p anom 31d) __ -0.5 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___+0.5 _+2.0 _+4.0 ___-1.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 (22nd) ___ (p anom 31d) __ -1.0 __-1.0 ___-1.0 ___+1.5 _+1.5 _+4.0 ___+2.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 (28th) ___ (p anom 31d) __ -1.0 __-1.0 ___-1.0 ___+1.5 _+2.0 _+5.0 ___+2.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.5 (31st) ___ (anomalies) _____-0.7 _ -1.1 __ -0.9 ___ +0.5 _+2.4 _+5.8 __ +1.3 _ +4.4 _ +2.5 current anomalies in last entry above are now confirmed values. (seasonal max updates in previous post ... IAH, DEN and SEA are now at higher values) (15th _ Projection based on assumptions of near average or slightly above normal second half of August in east, continued heat in west, finally overturning to some extent the localized negative trend at DEN). (22nd _ Projections now based on continued -1 to -2 trends in east, +2 to +4 further west, resuming also in Phoenix once the cloud from the recent hurricane clears away). (31st _ 1st Sep) ... Scoring being updated to final by Friday Sep 1st mid-day.

In the ongoing heat wave BC has seen its previous August record (41.7 C, 2004) broken today (Lytton at 42.1 C, possibly a bit higher in end of day reports). I've had 41.2 C locally (106 F) and it feels about like the 2021 heat dome out there (we reached 44 C in that episode). Pretty sure there are some new August records for WA and OR as well. Brutal heat that will last to Thursday. The windy and perhaps stormy cold front on Friday is causing red flag concerns for current forest fire situation which is generally bad although under control in most cases. Wind gusts to 40-50 mph in that event will create a widespread dangerous situation.

As I posted in another thread, I believe you may get one day of scorching heat around Monday and it could go over 100F. That earlier GFS output showing later heat seems to be out of the picture now, this will be two days of heat Sunday-Monday and a sharp cold front on Tuesday morning. Will go out on a limb and predict 95, 102 for the two days as a regional average.

Well I have 106F outside here today, in that heat dome 2.0 and I'm wondering if a bit of this heat will get into the Mid-Atlantic around Monday of next week? It is certainly going to reposition over the central plains region by the coming weekend. We will end up with four days at or above 100F here in this heat wave and a severe thunderstorm end to it on Friday, probably not what we need to keep a lid on the regional fire situation which is bad but not quite at worst-case scenario levels yet. Rain has been infrequent in the past six weeks but that is normal around here. 106F is about 20 above normal for this location in mid-August. Anyway, keep an eye on Monday. GFS 18z has 582dm thickness near DC. Cold front blasts through overnight so Sunday-Monday is the only hope.

I'm a little outside your region but I do have the heat going on, 106F at my local weather station (Warfield BC) -- I think you may get one day of this heat on Monday from model consensus, Tuesday sees it cut off quickly by a fast-moving cold front before noon. Could peak at 98-102 for you but just one day, we are in middle of five-day heat wave here. Not sweating much, dew point is 43F. Relative humidity is 12%. I suspect you will improve on those numbers and get a brief 100/78 combo on Monday. At the same time, I can see how it fails to reach your region (mid-Atlantic looks more certain) and I can also see how it lasts several days if Tuesday front is a glancing blow. Anyway, Don if you read this, BC August record of 41.7 was set in 2004 and looks likely to fall if not here then at Lytton BC which is at 41.5 this hour. (we are 41.2). This is not quite as bad as the heat dome but close. (later edit 4 p.m. Pacific daylight time, Lytton BC at 42.1 has broken that record, locally we stayed at 41 C).

I expect some serious heat to develop late in August like such years as 1948, 1953 and 1973. That anomaly in the southwest and parts of the northwest U.S. (up to my location, running hot here too) will eventually shift east. It may be near the end of August or maybe early September. But I think it will lead to 100+ days occurring then and setting records.

Those older Chicago area records seem to correlate well with Toronto back to 1840 and to some extent Providence RI back to 1832 (details on those sources are in my thread). For example April 1844 was a lot warmer than most other Aprils of that era. Winters 1855 to 1857 were all very cold for at least some portion (1856 more sustained). Winter 1841-42 was a very mild winter. I have some records copied out from some source for Fort Dearborn in the period 1782 to 1787. They show evidence of a very cold winter in 1783-84. The reversal of temperatures in winter 1857 from Jan (extreme cold) to Feb (record warm) came with severe ice jam flooding in many areas. It basically went from one extreme to another between Jan 22-24 and Feb 7-15. July 1868 was very hot in Toronto and with some adjustment for urban heat island in later data, is fairly close to being as hot as any later summer month. It was quite an outlier, as most other summers of the era were no warmer than what we might consider average. 1854 also had a rather hot summer.

https://www.mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php I found the attached map in the GFS 00z run for yesterday evening, for S America. Don't know if this link will update to the next 00z run or not. If so perhaps somebody can freeze this image (it won't update before 0340z). (link not working, go to GFS maps and select S America, 00z run, any early map -- working on getting a link to show this) Seems to show a sort of winter version of heat dome over central S America. There would probably be a bit of an easterly wind component in coastal Chile downsloping like a strong Santa Ana does in a California warm spell in late winter. Even so it's quite a remarkable map with the 582 dm thickness contours in their version of early February! Made me think of the remarkable warmth we had in BC around Feb 1, 1998, temps were into the 60s and I was out playing golf in summer clothing on a course that nine times out of ten is not open for play in Jan-Feb and can be covered in snow. (an analogue to season and El Nino) -- or the spectacular record breaking going on in Dec 1982 in eastern NA.

Table of forecasts for August 2023 FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _SEA Roger Smith __________________ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.7 __ +2.0 _+2.2 _+3.0 __ -2.0 _+3.5 _+2.0 BKViking ______________________+1.4 _+1.4 _+1.5 __ +0.8 _+1.0 _+2.4 __ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.2 so_whats_happening __________+1.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.3 _+2.0 __ -1.2 _+2.5 _+1.3 wxallannj ______________________+1.2 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ -0.4 _+2.0 _+1.7 __ -0.2 _+2.2 _+2.9 RJay __________________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _ +3.5 __ +3.0 _+3.5 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ -0.5 _+1.5 _-0.5 ___ Consensus ________________+0.7 _+0.6 _+0.4 __+0.2_+1.2 _+2.0 ____0.0 _+2.1 _+1.7 hudsonvalley21 _______________+0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 __+0.1 _+1.6 _+1.8 ___+0.4 _+1.5 _+1.7 DonSutherland1 ______________ +0.1 _-0.5 _-0.5 __ +0.2 _+2.0_+2.4 ___+0.7 _+2.0 _+2.1 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 Tom __________________________ -0.3 _-0.2 _-0.2 ___-0.1 _-0.4 _+0.6 __ +1.1 _ +1.3 _+1.4 Rhino16 _______________________-0.3 _-0.8 _-0.6 ___ -0.6 _-0.4 _-0.3 __ -0.5 _-0.6 _+0.7 wxdude64 ____________________-1.1 _ -1.3 _ -1.9 ___ -0.7 _+1.8 _+2.2 __ -0.8 _+2.1 _+1.8 RodneyS ______________________-1.2 _-0.2 _-0.6 ___+0.4 _-0.4 _+1.6 __+0.2 _+1.3 _+0.4 ______________________________ _ _ _ _ warmest and coolest forecasts color coded; all sets include some lower than Normal. This month I will score persistence (July anomalies) ... those are shown below ____ persistence ______________ +0.6 _+1.5 _+1.3 ___+0.3 _+2.2 _+2.7 __ -1.2 _+7.2 _+1.4 Persistence scores 696 against our consensus but PHX adds zero to that total; if persistence scored 900, consensus would score 717 as it would score 21 (and probably higher in a max 60). All other scores would be the same either way. (scores are 100 minus 2x 0.1 errors). Some different possibilities exist in the range between 2.1 and 7.2 for Phoenix, an outcome of 7.2 this month would give 3.5 a score of 49 so max 60 would come into effect. An outcome of 5.5 would give 3.5 a score of 65 and would give persistence a score of 71. It could be said then, our consensus has not strayed far from persistence except that the extreme anomaly at PHX is not expected to repeat. Our closest call to a repeat is +3.5 from RJay and Roger Smith. Seasonal max values will be imported into this thread in a few days. Updated seasonal max to date (Aug 26 2023) _ 97 _ 93 _ 91 ___100 __ 99 __ 109 _____ 99 __ 119 __ 95

This event seems to be correlated in latitude, timing and intensity by the recent broiling heat wave in the central Mediterranean region, which peaked about a week ago, with temperatures near all-time highs in parts of Tunisia, Sicily, southern mainland Italy, Albania, Greece and western Turkey. For example it was 45.6 C on July 25 at Catania, close to their previous all-time high of 46.0. Values of 48-49 C were reported from central Tunisia including Sfax where the previous all-time record was 47 C. One report from Greece was actually closer to 60 C but may be either an error or fire-affected. Severe wildfires erupted all over the hot zone. Some believe that these super heat waves are the combined result of ongoing AGW climate change and after-effects of the water vapour eruption of the Tonga undersea volcano last year. The central Med heat wave (which was not quite as relentless as the Arizona version, a few days recently have been temperate) was the result of a depressed jet stream in July over the Atlantic forcing superheated Saharan air to escape northeast, with less of a west to north exit or a southwesterly exit over the Atlantic, that are more normal outcomes. In some past years Saharan heat has spilled into Spain and Portugal then on to France and western Europe in general. This year's setup with depressed heights over the Iberian peninsula has prevented that and Spain has been more moderate, while France and Britain, Ireland have been a bit cooler than average for July after quite a warm June. CET values were 17.0 June (5th warmest) and 16.1 July (near median of all data and 0.7 below recent 30-yr normal). An average for five locations in Ireland was 15.1 C, 1981-2010 average 15.5 C. There are signs of a return to previous years' western Europe heat plume in mid-August however. My take is that the southwest heat dome will come back to life during August, spread north and then east. This may be an August similar to 1948, 1953 and 1973 all of which were fairly close to average in the east until the last week, then went into broiling heat waves with many records set. Then I speculate that this anomalous warmth will set up over eastern NA for most of the autumn, although the statistical correlation seems to be warm September and November, cool to average October.

+1.5 __ +1.5 __ +1.7 __ +2.0 __ +2.2 __ +3.0 __ -2.0 __ +3.5 __ +2.0