Roger Smith

About to become Ophelia, TS could approach cat-1 intensity by 18z before landfall e NC, an over performer can be expected, I believe, in terms of rain, wind and surge, especially rain. Parts of VA and central MD, even se PA, n/c NJ could see flooding rainfalls of 6-10 inches. Axis of heavy rain RIC to IAD to 50eCXY to 30nw EWR ahead of and to west of advancing low center. Model QPF seems a bit displaced to east of where climatology suggests, along and just west of track of low. Slight tornadic risk Delmarva and s NJ on Saturday as storm becomes extratropical and fronts rotate around it.

4 to 7 inches Fri-Sat to Sun 0600h, peak gusts 40-55 and low 70s t, dp, slow clearing Sunday

Declaring contest to be final now. __ Max values 2023 (to date) __ 99 __ 100 __100 __101 The qualifier for rank is the separation of equal error totals by the rules outlined earlier. This table will be adjusted if or when necessary, and if not, it will be posted again in rank order later in the summer. (Note: errors underlined are subject to future increases as the forecasts are already below outcomes _ now applies to all locations. FORECASTER (order of entry) _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC___ Errors ____Total__Rank__qualifier (what separates tied totals) 1. Weather53 (13) _______________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ____ 0 1 0 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ 2. RickinBaltimore ( 7 ) __________ 99 __100 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 0 0 0 2 ___2 ____ 2 __ lower 3rd lowest error (0) 3. biodhokie (25) ________________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _____0 1 1 0 ____2 ____ 3 __ higher 3rd lowest error (1) 4. WxUSAF ( 4 ) _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 0 1 0 2 ___ 3 ____ 4 __ earlier entry of 0012 5. katabatic ( 9 ) _________________99 __ 98 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 0 2 0 1 ____3 ____ 5 __ 2nd earliest entry of 0012 6. tplbge (24) ___________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 ____1 0 2 0 ____3 ____ 6 __ later entry of 0012 7. nw baltimore wx ( 3 ) _________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 __100 ____ 0 1 1 1 ____ 3 ____ 7 __ earlier entry of 0111 8. GramaxRefugee (19) __________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ____1 1 0 1 ____ 3 ____ 8 __ later entry of 0111 9. WinstonSalemArlington (22) __ 99 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 _____0 1 3 0____4 ____ 9 __ lowest 3rd lowest error (0) 10 MN Transplant ( 5 ) ___________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 1 1 0 2 ____4 ____10 __ lower lowest error (0) than 1111 11 Terpeast ( 6 ) _________________100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 _____1 1 1 1 _____4 ____11 __ earlier entry of 1111 12 Its a Breeze (12) ______________ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ____ 1 1 1 1 _____4 ____12 __ later entry of 0111 13 wxdude64 (16) _______________ 101 _ 99 _ 101 __ 102 ____ 2 1 1 1 ____ 5 ___ 13 __ earlier entry of 1112 14 toolsheds (18) ________________ 100 _ 98 _ 101 __ 102 ____ 1 2 1 1 ____ 5 ____14 __ later entry of 1112 15 NorthArlington101 (21) ________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 ____0 3 1 2 ____ 6 ____15 __ lower lowest error (0) 16 Stormpc (14) __________________98 _ 102 __ 101 __ 99 ____ 1 2 1 2 ____6 ____16 __ higher lowest error (1) 17 WxWatcher007 (11) ___________ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _____1 3 1 2 ____7 ____17 __ earliest entry of 1123 18 mattie g (17) __________________ 101 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _____2 3 1 1 ____7 ____18 __ 2nd earliest entry of 1123 19 H2O (20) _____________________ 102 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _____3 1 2 1 ____7 ____19 __latest entry of 1123 20 soundmdwatcher (23) ________ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _ 102 ____1 2 4 1 ____ 8 ____20 21 LittleVillageWx (10) ____________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 1 3 2 3 ____9 ____ 21 22 ChillinIt (15) ___________________ 102 __ 98 _ 103 _ 104 ____ 3 2 3 3 ___11 ____22 23 Roger Smith __________________ 102 _ 102 _ 103 _ 103 _____3 2 3 2 ___10 ____23 24 Rhino16 ( 2 ) __________________ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _ 105 _____2 3 2 4 ___11 ____24 25 StormchaserChuck1 ( 1 ) _____ 104 _ 103 _ 103 _ 104 _____5 3 3 3 ___14 ____25 26 GeorgeBM ( 8 ) _______________ 105 _ 103 _ 106 _ 104 _____6 3 6 3 ___18 ____26 ______________________________ Thanks for entering and congratulations to Weather53 for a nearly flawless forecast, three of four forecasts correct and the fourth off by just one degree. Well done also to Rick in Baltimore who also had three correct, and one error of 2 deg. Third place biodhokie was correct on two, and off by only 1 deg on two others. The rankings depend partly on order of entry and essentially a lot of ranks are tied with better ranked forecasts since the ties are not copied forecasts but just similar patterns of errors at different locations. Looking forward to the first frost and snowfall contests.

If Ophelia follows consensus track then I fear rainfalls are considerably underpredicted, 6 to 10 inch potential with a TS on track, not in all parts of region of course, but concentrated along an inland frontal boundary between tropical air dp 72-76 and cooler air with dew points in 60s. I would guess east central PA to west central MD to parts of VA-WV border regions. The heaviest rain is usually along and just west of the track of northward moving tropical storms. The slow forward speed would be a factor in exposing the region to longer accumulations of rain. If this proves correct, there could be severe flood risks in a few drainage basins of n/c VA into c MD and se PA. (also central NJ and possibly se NY)

Not convinced Nigel will be a major but I added (in brackets) an alternate total score if it does. Not yet in table would be adjustment to error deduction from alternate 15/6/4 count. If Nigel reaches major status, top scores would be 98.5 (wkd, solidicewx, hotair, NorthArlington101). Later edit, Nigel did not reach major status, count remains 15/6/3. Could soon increase to 16/6/3, giving hotair 100.0 as a score for the present. I continue to think that 19/8/4 could be the end result and in that case, tae laidir from boards.ie would win contest. Almost all of entries below 15/6/3 are now mathematically eliminated. Scoring table will be re-organized in October to show scoring ranks, for now it continues to be ordered by forecast counts.

Nigel brings count to 15/5/3 and it sees quite likely to reach 15/6/3 and perhaps 15/6/4. Potential scoring table in a previous post is updated for the more certain 15/6/3 count, will be easy enough to update again to 15/6/4 if necessary.

The history of the contest (with personal best scores) Before 2013, the contest was managed by a number of people including but not limited to Chicago Storm, mallow and Ellinwood. In 2013 I began to score the contest, although there was no max-60 rule and just six stations until 2014. In 2014 the three western locations were offered as "optional" and the scores were not combined. Contest scoring reports were separated into two groups (original six and western three), but by 2017 the scores were combined so total scoring was out of 900 each month. In 2013, RodneyS was the annual contest winner and DonSutherland1 was third. We used to have a considerably larger contest field of 30-40 lasting to about 2017, and some who have departed are long-time members still active, others have left Am-Wx or at least are now operating under a different username). I have added results from 2013, bearing in mind, totals are out of 600, not 900 (no western stations yet) ... month _______ winning score (/600) _____ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 452 _Mallow, 448 midlo snow maker __ 436 RodneyS FEB ___________ 512 __ Ineedsnow ______ Don Sutherland1 __ 492 MAR _____________ 457 __ wxdude64 APR ___________ 466 __Sacrus __________ RodneyS _ 462 _____ no snowfall contest winter 2012-13 MAY _____________ 534 __ Isotherm _520 Ellinwood __ 506 BKViking (tied OhLeary) __ severe storm bonus contest, subjective post-mortem* ___ ___ ____ ____ _____ ______ _______ ________ __________ __________ *pottercounty, Ellinwood, MNT, ChIcago Storm were mentioned as best JUN ___________ 556 __ Roger Smith _ 550 Mallow _ 546 Midlo Snow Maker JUL ___________ 460 __ Mallow, 438 Sacrus __ 424 wxdude64 AUG ___________530 __ UncleW __ 524 Chicago Storm __ 522 Roger Smith SEP ___________ 538 __ MN_Transplant __ four others, then 472 _ SD (Scotty L nowadays) OCT __________ 544 __ forkyfork ________522 _BKViking tied 4th __ Midlo Snow Maker won seasonal max contest for 6 locs (RodneyS t2nd w UncleW) NOV __________ 470 __ RodneyS ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC ___________448 __ MetallicWx366 ___ DonSutherland1 _ 392 __ Winner of 2013 contest (combined score) was RodneyS (5215) with Midlo Snow Maker second at 4967, DonS 3rd at 4851. No extreme forecast tracking yet. In 2014, although scores were not combined, I have added them and found these monthly wins ( was going to place numbers in brackets to represent scoring if a max-60 rule was in effect but could find few cases of revisable scores, a few such low scoring months exist but those with increased scores did not come very close to winning any month): ___ note your personal best score is also tracked even if you didn't win that month. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 700 __ Roger Smith FEB ___________ 558 __ midlo snow maker ___ Don Sutherland1 __ 532 MAR _____________ 677 __ Don Sutherland1 APR ___________ 802 __Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Mallow 798 ) ___ midlo snow maker won snowfall contest (Tom t4 best of current forecasters) MAY _____________ 736 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Isotherm 728 ) JUN ___________ 810 __ Mallow ___________ Roger S _ 808 ... hudsonvalley21 _ 794 JUL ___________ 592 __ Roger Smith (also Cpick79 (N of Pike) tied 592) AUG __________ 608 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ___________ 742 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ Don Sutherland1 and BKViking _ 716 OCT __________ 584 __ wxallannj (600) ___ Damage in Tolland won seasonal max contest (RodneyS 2nd) NOV __________ 609 __ Roger Smith (627) ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC __________ 592 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ wxallannj _ 462 __ Winner of 2014 contest (combined score) was Roger Smith (7195 would be 7213 now) while DonS totalled 7186. This close finish was not recorded at the time and Don was close to top of western scoring. Roger Smith also won the extreme forecast award (14-2). 2015 _ scores now combined making this project a lot simpler to navigate ... month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN __________ 656 __ Isotherm __________ Tom _ 542 FEB ________ about 500* __ DonS ... ______ __ __ BKViking won snowfall contest for winter on a different scoring system MAR __________ 507 __ Absolute humidity ____ DonS _ 503 APR _________796 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ wxallannj _ 756 MAY ________ 535 __ Stebo _______________ RodneyS _ 495 JUN ________ 596 __ wxdude64 JUL ________ 765 __ DonSutherland1 AUG _______ 696 __ SD (Scotty L) __ (later realized SD was Scotty Lightning, not sure when changed) SEP ________ 619 __ RJay ____________ __ __ SD (Scotty L) won seasonal max contest, Tom was 2nd. OCT _______ 714 __ Damage in Tolland ____ DonS 644 NOV _______ 774 __ ksammut _Ohwx 752 __DonS 726 ___ first four seasons contest winner Isotherm, DonS 4th (Mallow 2nd, msm 3rd) DEC _______ 487 __ snoski14 _______________Roger Smith 454 (very mild Dec 2015, scoring quite low for most) The highest combined score for 2015 was 6944 (Isotherm) and DonS was third at 6499. (D in T was 2nd). Damage in Tolland also won extreme forecast award (11-0), RJay and RodneyS (5-2) were best of currently active forecasters. * Feb 2015 was a very cold month, low scoring ... I proposed a max 60 rule in play but it was left out for 2015 ... if it were used, DonS would have won with about 500 pts. The actual high score was 383 for mikehobbyst. _______________________ 2016 _ The max-60 rule was still not adopted, and scoring for DEN and PHX was quite low in Feb 2016 but I couldn't find any potential winning scores among those who would have seen improved scores. No doubt our current forecasters would have scored higher if they alone had been boosted. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ______ 724 __ wxdude64 FEB ______ 534 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ RodneyS _ 446 MAR ______665 __Maxim ______________ DonS _ 637 APR ______ 710 __ wxallannj __________ __ __ winter snow contest won by Mallow, wxdude64 (5th) had high score of current active forecasters MAY ______ 708 __ Don Sutherland1 JUN ______ 702 __ Damage in Tolland __ RodneyS __ 658 JUL ______ 754*__ OHweather 754 _____ wxdude64, hudsonvalley21 _ t744 __ *(Consensus won wit 756) AUG ______ 646 __ RJay SEP ______ 698 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 632 ____ Summer max contest co-winners Maxim and Mallow, RodneyS was 3rd OCT _____ 580 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 560 NOV _____ 650 __ Don Sutherland1 ____ four seasons winners (tied) DonS and RJay DEC _____ 631 __ BKViking (despite 6% late penalty) DonSutherland1 won the annual contest with 7139 points. Damage in Tolland won extreme forecast award 9-0. Among currently active forecasters, RodneyS in fourth (7-3) was top currently active. 2017 still went forward without max-60 scoring and contests were not yet fully merged. The January scores were very low in eastern and central regions, due to very mild conditions. If max-60 had been applied, they would have been higher by at least 100 in some cases. Top scores were as low as 17 and 20. A much smaller adjustment was required in February 2017, where ORD had a top score of 49, and it was recorded by the eventual contest winner RJay. March also needed adjusting and after a discussion, we used a modified version of max-60 scoring. Score adjustments shown here use the current version. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 452 (587) _ Don Sutherland1 FEB ________587 (598) _ RJay MAR _______518 (556) _ RodneyS _________ Mercurial won snowfall contest with RodneyS a close second. APR _______ 628 __ RJay MAY _______ 670 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ (Normal _ 702 actually "won" contest) JUN _______ 694 __ wxallannj JUL ________778 __ RJay AUG _______ 770 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ________ 725 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 589 ____ CCM won seasonal max, one point ahead of BKViking OCT _______ 645 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 627 NOV _______ 532 (556) _ RodneyS _______ RodneyS also won four seasons contest for 2017 DEC _______ 614 __ Don Sutherland1 The annual contest winner for 2017 was RJay, scoring 6417 (would have been closer to 6600 using current scoring). Extreme forecast winner was also RJay at 8-0. By late 2017 the contest turnout was beginning to look fairly similar to 2022-23, with perhaps three or four additional players. To drum up support I came up with the "Regional Rumble" concept for 2018 which compared scores of top forum sub-regional forecasters in a team format. This worked for a while but the overwhelming superiority of NYC and mid-Atlantic had a chilling effect and by end of 2018 we were pretty much back to square one, and the "Regional Rumble" went the way of the Edsel and robots who do housework. SD changed to Scotty Lightning during 2018, can't tell when as software changed username before I changed name in scoring tables. 2018 As noted above, "Regional Rumble" took place in 2018. Best regional score (eastern, central, western) from any forecaster in sub-forum was used to determine format scoring. Also, max-60 finally made it to scoring system, so 2018 scores are directly comparable to more recent years. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 640 _ Mercurial __________ Don Sutherland1 _ 536 ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/western FEB _______ 449 _ so_whats_happening (despite 4% late pen) ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly MAR ______ 684 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic. APR _______ 627 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC MAY _______ 633 _ Roger Smith ________ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/West ___ snowfall contest winner Don Sutherland1 JUN _______ 744 _ BKViking (742 Tom) _ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC JUL _______ 737 _ RodneyS _____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic AUG ______ 618 _ Don Sutherland1 ______ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC SEP _______ 688 _ RJay _________________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC ___ seasonal max contest winner Don Sutherland1 OCT _______ 650 _ Scotty Lightning ____ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic NOV _______ 527 _ Scotty Lightning (Normal 540) __ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly ___ Four Seasons winner wxallannj DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _____________"Regional Rumble" winner Philly (annual NYC) ___ Annual contest winner Scotty L (6393) _______________ _______________ _________________ _________________ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (15-1) 2019 _ Contest entrants now limited to current group plus Stebo who only entered first four, RJay also opted out for rest of year around May. Regional Rumble no longer in operation. Two guest appearances in 2019 by jakkelwx (July and Dec), and one each for tplbge (June), smerby (July), and Orangeburg Wx (Oct). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 676 _ hudsonvalley21 FEB _______ 585 _ stebo (despite 3% late pen) _ RodneyS _ 550 MAR ______ 737 _ wxdude64 _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 707 _ RodneyS MAY _______ 658 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 792 _ wxdude64 JUL _______ 686 _ Roger Smith AUG _______672 _ Scotty Lightning SEP _______ 600 _ Roger Smith ______ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj OCT _______ 682 _ Orangeburg Wx __ Don Sutherland1 586 NOV _______ 679 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS (consensus marginally better score, based on ranks not points in 2019) DEC _______ 601 _ wxallannj __________Annual contest winner wxdude64 (7114) (RodneyS 7106) ___ Extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (27-8) ... also Roger Smith had a larger total of best forecasts but with quite a few very low scores, and so ended up middle of annual scoring table. 2020 _ The year began with the current group of regulars (except for so_whats_happening who had been active around 2016-18 but not in 2019 or 2020), and a number of new faces, some of who entered more than once during 2020. Brian5671 entered eight, jakkelwx seven, yoda four, and rclab, dwave, Maxim and Rhino16 one each. Maxim was quite regularly entered in contests around 2014 to 2017. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 559 _ RodneyS FEB _______ 701 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 638 _ DonSutherland1 ___ snowfall contest winner wxallannj (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 595 _ DonSutherland1 ... (632_Normal was actual winner) MAY _______ 726 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 726 _ RJay (despite 2% late penalty) JUL _______ 664 _ RJay AUG _______732 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 794 _ RodneyS __________ seasonal max contest winner RodneyS, wxallannj was 2nd by one point. OCT _______ 690 _ Yoda _____________ hudsonvalley21 _ 660 NOV _______ 579 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS DEC _______ 730 _ DonSutherland1 ___Annual contest winner RodneyS (7223) __ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith 17-5 (RodneyS was 15-4). RJay at 13-0 _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ had the best differential. 2021 __ The year began with the current regular entrants participating. Deformation Zone entered six from July to Dec. Stormchaser Chuck appeared in only one (NOV), and had previously entered a few contests as "A few universes below normal" (I think) in previous years. The seasonal max contest ran in a separate thread in an effort to attract extra forecasts (none were submitted). The infamous heat dome struck and SEA had a seasonal max of 108! Despite missing that by 16 deg, wxallannj won the contest. Our highest forecast for SEA was 99F. At my own location, an all time max of 113 was recorded. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 678 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 569 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 561 _ so_whats_happening and wxdude64 tied APR _______ 638 _ BKViking _________ snowfall contest winner RJay (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______ 700 _ Tom _ (Normal 716 was actual winner) _ wxallannj 696 _ a close finish with different outcome relative to 1991-2020 normals announced during month JUN _______ 609 _ Roger Smith _______ first contest with 1991-2020 values used. JUL _______ 680 _ RodneyS _ Normal 686 was actual winner AUG _______736 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 630 _ RJay (629 DonS) __ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj (separate thread). OCT _______ 656 _ RJay (despite 1% late penalty) NOV _______ 685 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner DonSutherland1 DEC _______ 518 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner DonSutherland1 (7011) RodneyS (6927) __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous year ... winner Roger Smith 16-3, RodneyS was 15-1, RJay at 12-0. 2022 __ The contest featured more regular appearances by Stormchaser Chuck who made eight appearances; George001 entered DEC to enter snowfall contest, and added temperatures. The highlight of the year was probably the highest annual totals to date. RodneyS had a very good second half of the year. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 682 _ wxdude64 FEB _______ 690 _ DonSutherland1 MAR ______ 756 _ Tom APR _______ 676 _ RJay _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______660 _ DonSutherland1 _ (RJay 658 after 1% late penalty) JUN _______ 718 _ Roger Smith JUL _______ 728 _ so_whats_happening AUG _______682 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 730 _ RodneyS ____ seasonal max contest winner RJay OCT _______ 670 _ RodneyS NOV _______ 618 _ BKViking ____ Four Seasons winner Rodney with DonSutherland1 only two points back DEC _______ 740 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner Rodney S (7690) ... 2nd wxdude64 _ 7488 ... 3rd DonS _ 7462 (best totals in report so far) ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ (swh 11/12 contests, prorated score would be 7509). __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous two years ... winner Roger Smith 16-7, RodneyS was 12-2, Stormchaser Chuck from 8/12 contests made a good score of 9.5-1. (unlike previous reports 2022 includes a reduction for ties, comparable numbers are 18-7, 14-2, 10-1.) 2023 __ The current contest year will be fully reported going forward and then this entire report will be moved to end of DEC thread. Stormchaser Chuck has continued to enter a few but not all contests, and swh has been somewhat occasional so far at 7/11 to NOV. Rhino16 became a new regular forecaster in March. Rainsucks and Terpeast have each entered one contest. Tom missed March due to injury and is doing a great job of gradually catching up to the pack (already past your host). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 554 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 674 _ Stormchaser Chuck __ RJay 657 MAR ______ 513 _ DonSutherland1 APR _______ 652 _ wxdude64 _______ snowfall contest winner Scotty Lightning MAY _______700 _ tied wxallannj, hudsonvalley21 _ Consensus actually won with 720 JUN _______ 636 _ RodneyS JUL _______ 746 _ wxallannj AUG _______722 _ DonSutherland1 SEP _______ 750 _ RodneyS OCT _______690 _ Roger Smith _ (so_whats_happening 687 lost 7 pts to late pen) NOV _______ 656 _ Rhino16 _____ wxallannj 648 Summary of contest wins, best scores 2014 to 2023 By end of 2023, 120 contests and 10 years of contests will be complete. This table will be updated each month until then. For each element scored, +field means additional wins only against current eleven regular players (not including Stormchaser Chuck or R ino16), and that format also exists for last three groups (winter snowfall, summer max, extreme forecasts, four seasons _ nine years tracked) but no headings identify add-on values. A score of 0.5 indicates a tied result except for a conversion to best against current field from a tied win. Best monthly score over ten years is shown in brackets beside forecaster name. FORECASTER _____ Wins (Mo) _ +field __ total ___ Wins (Yr) _ +field __ total ___ Snow __ Summer __ Extreme __ Four Seasons DonSutherland1 (802) __ 21 _____ 8.5 _____29.5 ______ 3 _______ 1 _______ 4 _______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 1.5, 1, 2.5 __ RodneyS (794) __________19 ______ 4 _______23 _______ 3 _______ 0 _______ 3 _______2,1,3 ___ 1,2,3 ___ 0,1.5,1.5 ___ 3 ____ Roger Smith (808) ______14.5 ____ 2.5 _____ 17.0 ______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 6 ________ 0 ____ RJay (778) ______________ 11 ______ 3 _______14________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 1,0.5,1.5 ___0.5, 0, 0.5 ____ wxallannj (770) __________6.5 ______3 ______ 9.5 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 2 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____ wxdude64 (792) _________6.5_____ 0.5______ 7.0 ______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0,1,1 _____ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Midlo Snow Maker (746) __5 ______ --_______ 5 ________ 0 _______--_______ 0 ________ 1 _______0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ BKViking (744) ___________4.5 _____ 2.5 _____7.0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______0,1,1 ______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Scotty L (SD) __ (744) ____ 4 ______ 0 _______ 4 ________ 1 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 1 ________ 0 ________ 0 ____ Maxim (698) ______________ 3 ______ --_______ 3 _______ 0 _______--_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0.5 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ so_whats_happening(728)_2.5*_____0 ______2.5*_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Tom (756) _________________ 2 ______ 1 _______ 3 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0, 1, 1 ___ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Damage in Tolland (714) __ 2 ______ -- ______ 2 ________ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 ________ 2 ________ 0 ____ rainsucks (725) ___________ 2 ______ --_______ 2 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Stebo (712) _______________ 2 ______ --_______ 2 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ hudsonvalley21 (794) _____ 1 ______ 1.5______ 2.5 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mallow (810) ______________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______1.5 _______0 ________ 0 ____ StormchaserChuck (724) __1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Isotherm (760) _____________1 ______ --_______ 0 ________ 1 _______ --_______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____ OHweather (754) __________1 ______ --_______ 0 ________ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Absolute humidity _________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ ksammut (774) ____________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Snoski14 ___________________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mercurial ___________________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Orangeburg Wx (682) ______ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Yoda (690) _________________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CPick79 (N of Pike) ________0.5 ____ -- ______ 0.5 ______ 0 _______-- _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ mikehobbyst ________________1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Rhino16 _____________________1 _______-- _______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CCM ________________________0 ______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ * so_whats_happening had a higher raw score by four points than Oct 2023 contest winner Roger S but 1% late penalties on seven of nine reduced it to three points lower. (following not counted against wins above) Consensus (756) ___________ 2 Normal (720) _______________ 4 Note: Best scores 810 Mallow and 808 Roger Smith, also hudsonvalley21 (794) occurred in same month (June 2014). blazes556, not a monthly winner at any point, scored 778. April 2014 also produced notably good scores, DonS 802 and Mallow 798, and goobagooba, despite never winning a month, had a score of 772 (also 756 in June 2014). Forecasters with no listed high score have not broken 720 so far and a later search will hopefully uncover actual high scores, also cannot confirm some of lower entries for high score. Will continue this project to completion later in 2023, in time to move it to end of annual 2023 roundup. Somewhat sadly, I can see the field of forecasters slowly reducing to the current core, and you wonder if some are still active at all, but it is what it is. UPDATED for NOV 2023 and SUMMER MAX 2023

Provisional Scoring for September 2023 Quite early, just to show what scores you would receive if the projections above are accurate. _ post now after historical overview post below, followed by annual update post. (post identified potential for high scores this month). Good luck, I am pretty sure scores over 800 may have happened in the past, but it is unusual. I believe it could happen for one or two scores this month. (the following historical summary answers the question of highest previous scores, they are from April or June 2014 and a few are just over 800, others have personal bests in the 750 to 800 range ...) =========================

Lee has already become a major, now Margot at TS status is likely to be a (non-major) cane also, table edited again for predicted count of 14/5/3 (currently 14/4/3).

All four locations just failed to increase values today (7th), RIC again at 100F. Must have been a scorcher in 1881 (104F DC, 101F BAL, and also in NYC, their all-time high so late in the year). Last table may well have been final report, will confirm end of September.

Yes, climate report now says 100F as well, so we edit. See new contest standings in a recent post above. Seems like the heat may now fade slowly? This may be the final report. In any case I am going to be away on a trip to UT and n AZ ... may get a few moments on the internet but any new developments would probably go unseen by me until at least a week from now.

Climate report says 99 IAD but regional roundup (and RodneyS) say 100. I await confirmation, table may need an edit later.

Lee brings the count to 13/4/2 and quite likely 13/4/3 within a few days. Scoring table updates to follow. (previous post will be edited)

Cleared up the uncertainty about IAD which appears to have hit 100F as well as BWI, RIC at 101F. Current standings as of September 6, 2023 Table is now in scoring order. Errors underlined are the few that are forecasts already passed by actual maxima so far (IAD and one BWI forecast passed now, to date). __ Max values to date ____________ 99 __ 100 __100 __101 The qualifier for rank is the separation of equal error totals by the rules outlined earlier. This table will be adjusted if or when necessary, and if not, it will be posted again in rank order later in the summer. (Note: errors underlined are subject to future increases as the forecasts are already below outcomes _ now applies to all locations. FORECASTER (order of entry) _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC___ Errors ____Total__Rank__qualifier (what separates tied totals) Weather53 (13) _______________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ____ 0 1 0 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ RickinBaltimore ( 7 ) __________ 99 __100 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 0 0 0 2 ___2 ____ 2 __ lower 3rd lowest error (0) biodhokie (25) ________________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _____0 1 1 0 ____2 ____ 3 __ higher 3rd lowest error (1) WxUSAF ( 4 ) _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 0 1 0 2 ___ 3 ____ 4 __ earlier entry of 0012 katabatic ( 9 ) _________________99 __ 98 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 0 2 0 1 ____3 ____ 5 __ 2nd earliest entry of 0012 tplbge (24) ___________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 ____1 0 2 0 ____3 ____ 6 __ later entry of 0012 nw baltimore wx ( 3 ) _________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 __100 ____ 0 1 1 1 ____ 3 ____ 7 __ earlier entry of 0111 GramaxRefugee (19) __________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ____1 1 0 1 ____ 3 ____ 8 __ later entry of 0111 WinstonSalemArlington (22) __ 99 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 _____0 1 3 0____4 ____ 9 __ lowest 3rd lowest error (0) MN Transplant ( 5 ) ___________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 1 1 0 2 ____4 ____10 __ lower lowest error (0) than 1111 Terpeast ( 6 ) _________________100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 _____1 1 1 1 _____4 ____11 __ earlier entry of 1111 Its a Breeze (12) ______________ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ____ 1 1 1 1 _____4 ____12 __ later entry of 0111 wxdude64 (16) _______________ 101 _ 99 _ 101 __ 102 ____ 2 1 1 1 ____ 5 ___ 13 __ earlier entry of 1112 toolsheds (18) ________________ 100 _ 98 _ 101 __ 102 ____ 1 2 1 1 ____ 5 ____14 __ later entry of 1112 NorthArlington101 (21) ________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 ____0 3 1 2 ____ 6 ____15 __ lower lowest error (0) Stormpc (14) __________________98 _ 102 __ 101 __ 99 ____ 1 2 1 2 ____6 ____16 __ higher lowest error (1) WxWatcher007 (11) ___________ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _____1 3 1 2 ____7 ____17 __ earliest entry of 1123 mattie g (17) __________________ 101 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _____2 3 1 1 ____7 ____18 __ 2nd earliest entry of 1123 H2O (20) _____________________ 102 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _____3 1 2 1 ____7 ____19 __latest entry of 1123 soundmdwatcher (23) ________ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _ 102 ____1 2 4 1 ____ 8 ____20 LittleVillageWx (10) ____________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 1 3 2 3 ____9 ____ 21 ChillinIt (15) ___________________ 102 __ 98 _ 103 _ 104 ____ 3 2 3 3 ___11 ____22 Roger Smith __________________ 102 _ 102 _ 103 _ 103 _____3 2 3 2 ___10 ____23 Rhino16 ( 2 ) __________________ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _ 105 _____2 3 2 4 ___11 ____24 StormchaserChuck1 ( 1 ) _____ 104 _ 103 _ 103 _ 104 _____5 3 3 3 ___14 ____25 GeorgeBM ( 8 ) _______________ 105 _ 103 _ 106 _ 104 _____6 3 6 3 ___18 ____26 ______________________________ The table will be updated if necessary.

Well, I see DCA edged up to join IAD and BWI at 99F, and otherwise, all other locations tied their previous seasonal maxima on Tuesday. This change (see edited table above) moves WxUSAF into the contest lead. Still lots of tiebreakers, some persisted from previous report, others went to new combinations. Just to clarify rules already announced at start of contest, ranks are separated by the first lower error in sequential order, for example, 0002 beats 0011, 1234 beats 1333, 0012 beats 0111. By sequential order, it has nothing to do with the four station order, just the "logic" of your errors from lowest to highest arranged in order, as these examples and my scoring table notes illustrate. If nothing separates the four errors, then it goes to order of entry. Perhaps we'll be gathering again this evening, I will post something anyway. Planning a two week absence from internet starting Friday so if this situation persists beyond Friday, you may not see updates from me for a while. I will probably get a brief chance to look in and see what if anything happened during those days. I am sure if this heat had arrived a couple of weeks ago it might have reached some of the contest higher predictions, ORD was 100F then, and a bit of the heat broke away but I think we noted it only reached about 96 or 97 that one day.

Summer Maximum Contest __ Update Sep 4, 2023 (forecasts) FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Rhino 16 _____________________105 __ 95 __ 98 ____101 _ 106 _ 101 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 96 Scotty Lightning _____________103 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 104 _ 109 ___ 94 _ 119 __ 90 Roger Smith _________________ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 108 ___103 _ 119 __ 98 so_whats_happening ________ 101 __ 101 __ 98 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 100 __ 101 _ 122 __ 97 RJay _________________________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 101 _ 105 ___100 _ 119 __ 97 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 101 __ 98 __ 95 ____100 _ 102 _ 105 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 93 DonSutherland1 ______________101 __ 96 __ 96 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 103 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92 ___ Consensus _______________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 98 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 95 wxdude64 ___________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 ___102 _ 100 _ 105 ___104 _ 119 __ 96 BKViking _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 97 __ 97 ___99 __ 100 _ 120 __ 95 Tom ___________________________99 __ 98 __ 97 ___ 101 __ 99 __ 103 ___97 _ 119 __ 97 wxallannj ______________________98 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 94 __ 98 _ 102 __ 101 _ 116 __ 97 RodneyS ______________________98 __ 96 __ 95 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 92 Terpeast ______________________ 96 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 95 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 99 (summer max to date) ________ 99 __ 93 __ 93 ____100 __ 99 _ 109 ____99 _ 119 __ 95 (current departures of forecasts) _ (now in contest rank order) Rank _FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__ORD_ATL_IAH__DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL _01 __ Tom ________________________ 0 ___ 5 ___ 4 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 6 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 20 (8) _02 __ hudsonvalley21 ____________ 2 ___ 5 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 4 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 22 (8) 03 _______ Consensus ____________ 1 ___ 5 ___ 5 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 6 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 23 (9) _03 __ RJay _______________________ 2 ___ 5 ___ 6 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 4 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 24 (6) _04 __ RodneyS ___________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 4 ___ 3 ___ 7 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 25 (18) _t05__ DonSutherland1 ____________2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 4 ___ 3 ___ 6 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 28 (20) _t05__ wxdude64 _________________ 1 ___ 6 ___ 8 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 28 (4) _07__ BKViking _____________________1 ___ 6 ___ 5 ____ 3 ___ 2 ___10 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 29 (15) _t08_ Terpeast _____________________3 ___ 4 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 7 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 4 ____ 30 (18) _t08 __ Roger Smith _______________ 2 ___ 9 ___ 7 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 0 ___ 3 ____ 30 (1) _09__ wxallannj _____________________1 ___ 5 ___ 4 ____ 6 ___ 1 ___ 7 ____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 31 (18) _11 __ Rhino 16 ______________________6 ___ 2 ___ 5 ____ 1 ___ 7 ___ 8 ____ 0___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 31 (9) _t12 __Scotty Lightning _____________4 ___ 8 ___ 6 ____2 ___ 5 ___ 0 ____ 5 ___ 0 ___ 5 ____ 35 (12) _t12 __so_whats_happening ________2 ___ 8 ___ 5 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 9 ____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 35 (9) ============================= (score in brackets represents departures not subject to potential improvement if warmer temps occur -- your final score will be at least value in brackets plus any remnant departures) edited Sep 5 for DCA 99F and after Sep 7 for BOS 93F The table is possibly now a final report on the contest.

Scoring table updated again, as two more 1F increases today (DCA to 98, BWI to 99), many tie-breakers applied. Is there any chance of further increases? Will check to see if today's early climate reports are final values as I understand it has stayed quite hot beyond their reporting times. (scoring table posted yesterday is edited)

List of the years with their annual maximum in September (NYC): Date ___ YEAR(s) ___ Max _______ notes (including record highs that were not annual maxima) Sep 1 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1953 Sep 2 ____ 1953__102 ____ 1932_96 ___ 2014_92 Sep 3 ____ 1929__99 ____ 1921_96 _________ Sep 4 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1929 Sep 5 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1985 Sep 6 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1881 Sep 7 ____ 1881 ___101 Sep 8 ____ 2015 ___ 97 Sep 9 ____ 1915 ___ 94 ____ 1884 _ 91 (tied June 21, Aug 20, Sep 10 1884 91F) Sep 10 ___ 1897__ 93 (tied July 6, 1897 93F) ___ 1884 _91 (tied June 21, Aug 20, Sep 9 1884 91F) ________________________________________________ 97F 1931 and 1983 records for 10th Sep 11 ___ 1983 ___99 __ 1931 ___99 __ (1931 tied Aug 7 99F) Sep 12 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1961 Sep 13 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1952 Sep 14 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1931 Sep 15 ___ 1927 ___ 92 (tied four dates in July 1927 92F) ___ Sep 16 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1915 Sep 17 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1991 Sep 18 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 91F 1891 Sep 19 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1983 Sep 20 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1895, 1983 Sep 21 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 95F 1895 Sep 22 ___ 1914 ___ 95 (tied May 27, 1914 95F) ___ 1970 _ 94 ___ record 95F 1895, 1914 Sep 23 ___ 1895 ___ 97 ____________________ also 96F May 31, June 1, 2 1895 ___________________________ In the above list, if there is no record high in the column to right, it means the record high was the warmest of the annual maxima, e.g. 97 was the record high for Sept 23. Some annual maxima set in September were not record highs e.g. 94 Sept 22, 1970. Also 93F on Sep 1st to 3rd 1898 but annual max was 100F in July 3. Records after Sep 23 generally near 90F, sooner or later a year could set an annual max in October as 94F in 1941 is above annual maxima of several years. It was not the annual max for 1941 however. A total of 11 years had their untied maximum in September and five more tied an earlier set value. This works out to a 10% chance that September would set or tie the annual maximum.

Two of the four contest locations edged up by 1F today (so I read on NWS) ... IAD 99F and BWI 98F ... here are the updated contest standings (edit 4th, two more 1F rises for DCA and BWI today, IAD and RIC tied their previous maxima for 2023. edit 5th for DCA now at 99F ... the others all tied their previous seasonal maxima): Current standings as of September 5, 2023 (updated version for Sep 6 is in later post) Table is now in scoring order. Errors underlined are the few that are forecasts already passed by actual maxima so far (IAD and one BWI forecast passed now, to date). __ Max values to date ____________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 98 The qualifier for rank is the separation of equal error totals by the rules outlined earlier. This table will be adjusted if or when necessary, and if not, it will be posted again in rank order later in the summer. (table adjusted Sep 3 for IAD 99 and BWI 98 and again Sep 4 for DCA 98 and BWI 99) (Note: errors underlined are subject to future increases as the forecasts are already below outcomes _ applies to IAD, DCA and one forecast for BWI only so far) FORECASTER (order of entry) _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC___ Errors ____Total__Rank__qualifier (what separates tied totals) WxUSAF ( 4 ) __________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 0 0 1 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 __ Its a Breeze (12) _______________ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 1 0 0 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 __ earlier entry of 0012 NorthArlington101 (21) _________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _____ 0 2 0 1_____3 ____ 3 __ later entry of 0012 MN Transplant ( 5 ) ____________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 1 0 1 1 ____ 3 ____ 4 __ earlier entry of 0111 RickinBaltimore ( 7 ) ___________ 99 __100 _ 100 __ 99 ______0 1 1 1 ____ 3 ____ 5 __ later entry of 0111 Weather53 (13) ________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _____ 0 0 1 3 ____ 4 ____ 6 __ lower 3rd lowest error (1) nw baltimore wx ( 3 ) __________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 __100 _____ 0 0 2 2 ____ 4 ____ 7 __ higher 3rd lowest error (2) katabatic ( 9 ) __________________99 __ 98 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 0 1 1 2 ____ 4 ____ 8 __ higher lowest error (1) LittleVillageWx (10) ____________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 _____ 1 2 1 0 ____ 4 ____ 9 __ 2nd earliest entry of 0112 WxWatcher007 (11) ____________ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 ______1 2 0 1 ____4 ____ 10 __ 3rd earliest entry of 0112 GramaxRefugee (19) ___________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 _____1 0 1 2 ____ 4 ____ 11 __ latest entry of 0 1 1 2 biodhokie (25) _________________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 ______0 2 0 3 ____ 5 ___ 12 WinstonSalemArlington (22) ___ 99 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 ______0 0 4 3 ____ 7 ____13 __ lowest low error (0) Stormpc (14) ___________________98 _ 102 __ 101 __ 99 _____ 1 3 2 1 ____ 7 ____14 __ next lower 2nd low error (1) Terpeast ( 6 ) __________________100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 1 2 2 2 ____ 7 ____15 __ higher 2nd lowest error (2) wxdude64 (16) ________________ 101 _ 99 _ 101 __ 102 ______2 0 2 4 ____ 8 ____16 __ lowest low error (0) toolsheds (18) _________________ 100 _ 98 _ 101 _ 102 _______1 1 2 4 ____ 8 ____ 17 __ lower 3rd lowest error (2) tplbge (24) ____________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 ______1 1 3 3 ____ 8 ____ 18 __higher 3rd lowest error (3) mattie g (17) ___________________ 101 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ______2 4 2 4 ___ 12 ____19 __ lower 2nd lowest error (2) H2O (20) ______________________ 102 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 3 2 3 4 ___ 12 ____ 20 __ higher 2nd lowest error (3) soundmdwatcher (23) _________ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _ 102 ______1 3 5 4 ___ 13 ____21 ChillinIt (15) ____________________ 102 __ 98 _ 103 _ 104 ______3 1 4 6 ___ 14 ____ 22 Roger Smith ___________________ 102 _ 102 _ 103 _ 103 ______ 3 3 4 5 ___ 15 ____ 23 Rhino16 ( 2 ) ___________________ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _ 105 ______ 2 4 3 7 ___ 16 ____ 24 StormchaserChuck1 ( 1 ) ______ 104 _ 103 _ 103 _ 104 ______ 5 4 4 6 ___ 19 ____ 25 GeorgeBM ( 8 ) ________________ 105 _ 103 _ 106 _ 104 ______ 6 4 7 6 ___ 23 ____ 26 ______________________________ The table will be updated if necessary.

Jose came and went over the last two days and now Katia is moving north in the central Atlantic. This brings the count to 12/3/2. Edit of previous post underway.

Four Seasons contest 2022-23 __ Summer segment Each season is scored 10 points for high total score, then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 for 2nd to 7th, and 1 point for anyone else who entered a minimum of 2/3 contests entered. ... DonS now in the lead but any of the chase pack have a chance to win this contest if they can take ten points for autumn (Don needs just a second place seven points to guarantee a win). Tie would go to the person with highest minimum seasonal points, and if that does not determine an outcome, second lowest points etc -- at this point DonS and wxallannj have "high min" of 5 seasonal points. FORECASTER _______ Winter __Points __ Spring __Points ___JUN__JUL__AUG ___TOTAL__Summer Pts _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___TOTAL points DonSutherland1 ________ 1722 ___ 6 ______ 1761 ___ 5 ______616 __ 706 __ 722 ____ 2044 ____10 _____ 21 wxallannj _______________ 1699 ___ 5 ______ 1765 ___ 6 _____ 504 __ 746 __ 604 ____ 1854 _____6 _____ 17 RJay ____________________1879 ___ 10 _____ 1761 ____ 5 _____ 395 __ 710 __ 628 ____ 1733 _____ 1 _____ 16 hudsonvalley21 ________ 1675 ___ 4 _______1824 ___ 10 _____ 434 __ 680 __ 642 ____1756 _____ 2 _____ 16 ___ Consensus _________ 1682 __ 4.3 _____ 1772 ___ 6.9 ____ 514 __ 689 __ 626 ____ 1829 ____ 4.8_____16.0 RodneyS _______________ 1760 ____7 ______ 1543 ____ 1 _____ 636 __ 630 __ 606 ____ 1872 _____ 7 _____ 15 wxdude64 ______________1518 ____ 1 ______ 1773 ____ 7 _____ 482 __ 684 __ 666 ____ 1832 _____ 5 _____ 13 Tom ___________________ 1545 ____ 1 _______ 1281 ____ 1 _____ 572 __ 636 __ 610 ____ 1818 ______4 ______ 6 Roger Smith ___________ 1626 ___ 3 _______ 1409 ____ 1 _____ 280 __ 604 __ 576 ____ 1460 _____ 1 ______ 5 Scotty Lightning _______ 1147 ___ 1 ________ 1676 ____ 3 _____ 450 __ 676 __ 516 ____ 1642 _____ 1 ______ 5 BKViking ______________ 1576 ____ 1 ________ 1580 ____1 _____ 502 __ 702 __ 600 ____ 1804 _____ 3 ______ 5 so_whats_happening __ 1620 ___ 2 _______ -- -- _____0 _____ 464 __ ----__ 560 ____ 1024 _____ 1 ______ 3 Rhino 16 _______________ -- -- ___ 0 ________ 1675 ____2 _____ 538 __ ---- __ 530 ____ 1068 _____ 1 ______ 3 ___ Normal ____________ 1076 ____ 1 ________ 1570 ____1 ______ 582 __ 576 __ 524 ____ 1682 _____ 1 ______ 3 StormchaserChuck ____674 (1/3)_0 _______ 1212 ____ 1 _____ -- -- __ -- -- __ -- -- ___ -- -- _____ 0 ______ 1 _______________________________________________

Table of forecasts for September 2023 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA RJay ______________________+4.5 _+4.5 _+4.5 __ +5.5 _+4.0 _+4.0 __+4.0 _+2.0 __0.0 Roger Smith ______________+3.8 _+4.5 _+6.0 __ +5.5 _+3.8 _+3.8 __+2.5 _+2.5 _+1.0 StormchaserChuck 1 _____+3.5 _+3.5 _+3.2 __ +4.0 _+3.8 _+3.7 __+0.5 __ 0.0 _-0.8 Tom ______________________ +3.1 _+3.4 _+3.3 __ +3.9 _+2.2 _+1.5 __+1.9 _+1.1 _ +0.6 wxallannj _________________ +3.0 _+3.2 _+3.4 __ +3.0 _+1.8 _+1.4 __+2.5 _+1.5 _-0.4 hudsonvalley21 ___________+2.8 _+2.4 _+2.7 __ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.4 __+2.1 _+2.3 _+0.7 ___ Consensus ____________+2.5 _+2.4 _+2.7 __ +3.0 _+2.1 _+2.0 __ +1.9 _+1.5 _+0.3 so_whats_happening _____+2.5 _+2.1 _+2.8 ___ +3.5 _+2.1 _+1.9 __+1.4 _+1.6 _ +1.3 BKViking __________________+2.1 _+2.5 _+2.4 __ +2.8 _+2.7 _+2.0 __+1.9 _+2.0 _+0.3 DonSutherland 1 __________+2.0 _+2.1 _+1.8 __ +3.5 _+2.0 _+2.8 __+2.8 _+2.0 _+0.6 Scotty Lightning __________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 RodneyS _________________ +1.3 _+1.9 _+1.3 ___ +3.0 _ 0.0 _+3.6 __+3.6 _+0.4 _+0.1 Rhino16 __________________ +0.8 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +1.2 _+0.9 _+0.8 __+1.1 _+0.3 _-0.6 ___ Normal _________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxdude64 ________________-0.2 _ -0.5 _ -0.6 __ -0.3 _+0.8 _+1.2 __+1.4 _+2.1 _+0.3 ========================= persistence (Aug anoms) _-0.7 __-1.1 _ -0.9 ____ +0.5 _+2.4 _+5.8 __+1.3 _+4.4 _+2.5 consensus vs persistence +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.6 ____ +2.5 _-0.3 _-3.8 __ +0.6 _-2.9 _-2.2 (contest field's expected trends from Aug to Sep) ^^ consensus and persistence could score up to 452 points different if one is always correct (or if outcomes are always entirely in its favor ... in August, consensus scored just a bit more as outcomes were often between them). Consensus and Normal could score up to 368 points different, and for all nine locations consensus is warmer. Persistence and Normal could score up to 392 points different. ========================= ========================= apart from persistence, color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is colder than all forecasts for IAH and DEN and equal to coldest for ATL and PHX. Consensus is a median value for 13 forecasts. Persistence and Normal are not included in the calculation. Summer Max data will be coming over to this thread during the next week, for now you'll find updates in August contest.

+3.8 _ +4.5 _ +6.0 __ +5.5 _ +3.8 _ +3.8 __ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.0

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JANUARY - AUGUST 2023 ---- >>>> === === ... now fully updated for August scoring and data ... Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. Scoring ranks mainly unchanged in July except for Tom moving past Roger Smith into 9th. Some margins have changed. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS DonSutherland1 ___________ 516 _496 _ 540 __1552 __598 _602 _508 __1708__3260 __539 _462 _612 __1613 ____4873 RJay _______________________496 _502 _ 493 __1491 __ 615 _526 _538__ 1679 __3170 __407 _497 _ 611 __1515 ____ 4685 wxallannj __________________487 _498 _ 523 __1508 __ 637 _570 _446__ 1653 __3161 __499 _480 _506 __1485 ____4646 ___ Consensus _____________475 _472 _ 529 __1476__ 609 _498 _487 __1594 __3070 _ 455 _451 _606 __1512 ____4582 hudsonvalley21 ____________489 _484 _ 553 __1526 __ 618 _509 _465 __1592 __3118 __434 _392 _617 __1443 ____4561 wxdude64 _________________490 _483 _474 __1447 __ 493 _542 _440 __1475 __2922 __549 _434 _572 __1555 ____4477 RodneyS __________________ 486 _472 _516 __1474 __ 447 _439 _502 __1388 __2862 _ 525 _ 466 _ 582 __1573___ 4435 BKViking ___________________468 _452 _495 __1415 __ 571 _486 _501 __1558 __2973 __ 401 _ 392 _506 __1299 ____4272 Scotty Lightning ___________407 _424 _484 __1315 __ 559 _427 _446 __1432 __2747 __ 396 _330 _456 __ 1182 ____3929 ... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for most below this point in the table ... ... ... ... Tom's unimproved score is now a bit ahead of mine and close to Scotty L ... ... ... ... Tom's pro-rated score compares to about 5th-6th places above in the scoring table. Tom (7/8) __________________449 _436 _459 __1344 __434 _406 _426 __1266 __2610 __434 _342 _507 __1283 _____3893 (4450) Roger Smith _______________ 418 _360 _388 __1166 __453 _391 _ 474 __1318 __ 2484 __355 _408 _592 __ 1355 ____ 3839 ___ Normal _________________378 _384 _424 __1186 __500 _410 _348 __1258 __ 2444 __446 _ 322 _466 __1234 ____ 3678 Rhino16 (5/8) ______________304 _322 _344 __ 970 __388 _332 _216 ___936 __1906 __ 273 _212 _352 ___ 837 ____ 2743 (4388) so_whats_happening (4/8) _186 _184 _ 242 __ 612 __ 249 _183 _212 ___644 __1256 __ 172 _230 _294 ___ 696 ____1952 (3904) Stormchaser Chuck (3/8) __201 _238 _196 ___ 635 ___257 _132 _146 ___535 __ 1170 __238 _240 _238 ___ 716 ____1886 (5030) Terpeast (1/8) ______________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 __ 146 ____ 482 (3956) rainsucks (1/8) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 (3648) - - - - - ___ Persistence ____________361 _302 _404 __1067 __474 _437 _468 __1379 ___2446 __242 _388 _448 __1078 ____3524 _______________________________________________________ Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) ^ shared with two other forecasters for one month (subject to change for August) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*___1* ___ 0____3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2*___1 ____3 _ Jan,Mar,Aug RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___3**___4 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 0___ 3**___1 ___0 ____0 wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____2**___1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1* _ May(t),July ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May hudsonvalley21 ____________1*____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____1* ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1* _ May(t) wxdude64 _________________1^____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Apr RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 2*___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____1 _ Jun BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___2 ___ 1 ____0 Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____0 Tom (7/8) _________________ 2*^___0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ____2**___ 1 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 Rhino16 (5/8) ______________ 1^____ 0 ____ 1*___ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening (4/8) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Stormchaser Chuck (3/8) __2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb Terpeast (1/8) _____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ____0 rainsucks (1/8) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 60 of 72 forecasts qualify, 34 of them for warmest, and 26 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8, July 4-2, Aug 4-3 ... 15 of 60 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun _Jul _Aug ___ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 _4-0 _2*-0 _ 17-1 ______15.0 - 1.0 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 _0-1 _ 1*-1 __10-3 ______ 9.0 - 2 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 9-3 ______ 8.5 - 3.0 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ --- ___ 8-1 ______ 7.5 - 1.0 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 _1*-0 _ 2*-0__ 6-1 ______ 4.5 - 0.5 Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _0-0 _ --- ___4-2 ______ 4.0 - 1.5 ___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _0-0 _ --- ___ 4-1 _______ 4.0 - 1.0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-1 ___ 4-3 ______ 3.0 - 2.0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 __1*-1 _2^-1 __ 4-2 ______ 2.83 - 2.0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ --- ___ 3-0 ______ 2.0 - 0.0 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _1^-0___ 3-0 ______ 1.83 - 0 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 ___2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0 Rhino16 _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- -- _-- - _ ---- _ --- _ 2*^-0___2-0 ______ 0.83-0 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 __ --- _ --- __ 0-1 _______ 0.0 - 1 =========================================== Four seasons scoring update will follow in a day or two, for summer segment.

My source was the wikipedia entry for Cedar Key and they state that 1985 Elena stayed offshore but still generated a damaging storm surge that had a major impact on the town (so no landfall). Also 2020 Eta came in around Cedar Key but damage was slight.