Roger Smith

Looking at all aspects of this developing east coast low, there appears to be wide variability left in play with over 96h to go, therefore I believe a considerable change in final appearance is likely. Whether that works in favor of a larger snowfall event or a totally OTS ending cannot be known yet. One way back to a better event (for DC-BAL) is a deeper 500 low, at present it only drops to 528 which is probably too weak to draw the low into a phase before 70W. If that trends stronger, this can be salvaged.

Room for improvement, but what we see now is only 100-150 miles s.e. of a very big hit with 108 hours to go ... and the upper components probably need less work than surface ... this could still go either way.

First call 1-30 region-wide.

If Jerry Seinfeld was a weatherman he would say, "the average of all guidance is better than any part of the guidance." And Kramer would look startled, then enlightened.

It was probably about what everyone was thinking anyway, from reading the discussion, but I do see a high impact event in parts of MI and ON, if it would intensify faster then IL and IN also. Another analogue might be Apr 2-3, 1975 which was a very high impact snowstorm north of Toronto, due to a 15" storm snowfall being followed by 15" of Georgian Bay lake effect and 50 mph winds. People were stranded for up to a week after that one (despite the late date it was frigid air coming across the Great Lakes and daytime highs below 20 F). I remember that because I was living in the region when it hit, and it was entirely underpredicted at the time.

I suspect this storm will be slow to intensify to full potential but when it does (after 18z) it will begin to create bands of heavy snowfall across most of s ON and se MI, nw OH giving many in those regions 12-15" totals and possibly up to 20" with lake enhancement. There will be some backbuilding as a result of the intensification process and this will help Chicago keep adding with better rates developing, to reach 7 or 8 inches. Given the rush of very cold air around the low as it departs, dangerous lake effect blizzard conditions can be expected in parts of sw Ontario and w NY, and it will also be a significant lake effect snow producer for w MI with more localized blizzard conditions as a result (near GRR in particular). Some parts of the Lake Huron snowbelt could see impassable roads for 2-3 days after this storm winds down. One analogue for the storm (Feb 25, 1965) gave Wiarton ON four feet of snow (generally it was 15-20 inches across s.w. ON). It may seem like it's starting off rather feebly perhaps, but my guess is that it will become a powerful storm around the time it's near FWA to TOL. Will give a specific forecast for DTW, 13.5" and TOL could see 16" due to lake enhancement. CLE is going to get a mixture of snow, sleet and ice pellets with thunder-snow likely to develop over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario regions. Western Lake Ontario could see even more due to lake enhancement but Toronto region in general will see 12 to 16 inches. I don't think it will mix very much as cold air is going to clamp around the low center during the development phase. There won't be much of a coastal transfer until beyond a BTV-BOS axis so only VT, NH and ME are likely to see significant snowfalls apart from a brief interval before the low reaches Ohio, 1-3" will be common inland northeast, but predicting 15-20" in BTV and Montreal.

Toronto (downtown) greatest snow depth in modern times is probably 65 cm on Jan 15, 1999, following 38 cm snow 2nd, 21 cm 12th and 29 cm 14-15th. No snow depth is available in older records but march 1870 and Feb 1846 may have had similar conditions. In Feb 1846 (measured in inches) Feb 11-12 9.0", Feb 15-16 12.0", 17-18 2.5" and 20-21 added 22.0" ... temps were generally below freezing so the total snowfall of 44.5" must have been at least 3/4 on the ground at end of the snowy period. It was followed by record cold Feb 26-28 (lows of -12, -16 and -17 F) and it stayed cold in march although with very little additional snow.

I don't see a path to a win needing 5" at BWI, 3.5" at IAD, and no snow at DCA (or RIC), that would be a tough ask. This is what I get for relying on DCA slant stick. Also, Arlwx12 will stay in front as far as any BWI snow is concerned with a 4.3" deficit, (I can tie at 5.0 or above, if IAD stays in my favor (arlwx12 is at 4.5" so as soon as IAD goes past 3.5" that possible tie is broken). It looks like high stakes and deck pic are in a very good position too, with 3" and 2.1" left to use at RIC, so they can easily pass me and arlwx12 as each 0.1" to 3.0" at RIC is a -0.2" differential for us before deficits are spent. There are others needing less snow at all locations, in 1-3" range, who will stay ahead of all of the above if that's all that we get now to ?? Apr. And a bigger fall than 5" will open it up for lots of larger forecasts. I figure on one 3-5" event and we're done. It will likely go very warm by mid to late march. even so, 1993? Feb 1993 was frigid in Great Lakes region as I recall living in Ontario.

Above belongs in the other thread -- for the next event, it's looking like 12-15" in Toronto , and possibly 15-20 in Niagara also ROC.

IAH was +15.7 for Feb 1-10, dry; 1.60" rain fell on Feb 11, still a +8 dep, so will be close to +14 for Feb 1-11. DEN was also warm at first but 11th was very cold, anomaly will be close to zero in a day or two. Will update snowfall contest totals in a few days as snow will be falling at a few locations again today and tomorrow.

Wondering if there could be a narrow band of heavy snow tonight-Wed similar to what happened last winter? Focus would be the secondary arctic front stalling south of EWR-JFK.

When was the snowstorm event in n/c VA that stranded people on I-95 for a day or so? I recall it being in early Jan was it 2022? This could be similar?

CAD has excellent resistance to 12z and 850-700 frontogenesis looks good for a gradual northward drift of heavy snow axis, it briefly reaches as far north as near DCA-10sBWI before drifting back south as precip rates drop. 10-12" snow potential in a narrow stripe 10-30 s of DCA-BWI, 7-10" for DCA-10sBWI, 4-7" IAD-10nBWI, 2-5" s PA to cNJ.

They are real, and they are SPECTACuLAR.

Note: IAD added 0.1" Sat and is now 10.7"

40/70 (Ray) will see 8-10" ... a foot s.w. 20-40 miles? I'll say 6" BOS, 8" ORH, 4-6" CT. 2" se ma and s RI

Would this be a good time to remind people of my 32" forecast?

Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025 ... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ... FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1 wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6 Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7 ___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___ 49.0_ 6.3__87.5 ___ 414.3 BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0__ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0 ___ 408.0 RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.3 ___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __ 57.4 _ 5.8 _ 91.7 ___ 404.0 RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0 Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0 wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0 Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5 hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0 so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0 ___________________________ Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0 ____________________ To date _____ (MAR 8) _______ 14.9__12.9 _28.1 ___14.8 _26.9__ 76.5 ___ 43.5 __2.3 __65.6 ____285.5 (contest incl all seasonal snow) Scoring update FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_DTW_BUF ___ DEN_SEA_BTV ___ TOTAL Roger Smith ________________ 1.4_ 19.1 _ 18.9 ___ 35.8_ 25.3_ 53.5 ___ 45.5_ 0.8_ 43.7 ___244.0 wxdude64 _________________ 3.9_ 23.3_ 16.2 ___ 23.0_ 14.4 _ 46.4 ___27.7 _ 5.1 _ 37.1 ___ 197.1 Tom ________________________11.3_ 25.2_ 14.3 ___ 22.8_ 15.4 _ 26.1 ___ 14.2 _ 4.1__ 17.8 ___ 151.2 ___ Normal 1991-2020 _____ 1.2_ 16.9_ 21.1 ___ 23.6 _ 18.1 __18.9 ____ 5.5_ 4.0__21.9 ___ 131.2 BKViking ___________________ 2.9_ 14.1 _ 15.9 ___ 15.2 __ 1.1 __ 21.5 ___ 11.5 _11.7 __34.4 ___ 128.3 RodneyS ____________________9.1 _ 9.1 _ 10.4 ___ 27.7 _ 18.1 __ 22.5 ___ 14.5_ 7.2 __19.4 ___ 138.0 ___ Consensus ____________ 0.1 _ 10.7_ 6.7 ___ 20.2 __ 9.8 __ 27.7 ___ 13.9 _3.5 _ 26.1 ___ 118.7 RJay _______________________10.9 _ 0.9 _21.9 ___ 14.2 __ 8.1 __ 23.5 ___ 16.5_ 3.7 _ 34.4 ___ 134.1 Scotty Lightning ___________ 5.1 _ 12.1 __ 1.9 ___ 20.2 __ 3.1 __ 29.5 ____ 1.5 _ 0.7 _ 34.4 ___ 108.5 wxallannj __________________ 10.1_ 17.1 __ 5.9 ___ 17.2 ___ 8.1 __ 17.5 ____ 3.5 _ 1.7 __ 22.4 ___ 103.5 Don Sutherland1 ___________ 6.9 _ 3.6 __6.9 ___ 25.2 _ 18.1 __ 18.5 ___ 11.5 _ 5.7 ___ 9.4 ___ 105.8 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 2.1 _ 8.1 __ 0.1 ____ 11.2 __ 2.9 __ 25.5 ____ 7.5 _ 1.7 __ 18.4 ____ 77.5 so_whats_happening ______ 1.9 _ 6.1 __ 6.9 ___ 14.2 __ 4.1 ___ 21.5 ____ 4.5 _ 0.7 __ 15.4 ____ 75.3 Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 6.9__ 5.4__18.3___ 7.4 __ 3.4____ 5.2 ____ 1.1 _ 2.0 ___ 4.8 ____ 54.5

WARNING A 45 degree rainfall event will strike large parts of the region on Wednesday into Thursday. Prepare yourself with an umbrella and raingear. Surfaces may become wet. Dogs may shake off excess water inside residences and places of business. These impacts can be reduced by ... etc

Table of forecasts for February 2025 FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA StormchaserChuck ________+4.0 _ +3.9 _ +3.2 __ +2.8 _ +5.8 _+5.2 __ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ -4.7 DonSutherland1 ___________ +3.2 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +5.2 _+4.5 __ +1.8 _ +0.5 _ -4.5 BKViking __________________ +3.1 _ +2.3 _ +2.0 ___ -0.9 _ +3.0 _ +1.2 __ -1.0 _ -0.1 __ -2.2 so_whats_happening ______+2.8 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___ +2.9 _+4.2 _ +4.8 __ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ -3.2 hudsonvalley21 ____________+2.6 _ +1.9 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.6 _ +2.0 __ +1.6 _ +0.2 _-0.9 wxallannj __________________ +1.8 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ___ -0.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 __ -0.3 _ +0.7 _ -1.8 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ +0.5 _ +2.6 _+2.0 __+0.8_ +0.7 _ -2.4 wxdude64 _________________ +1.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ___+0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ -1.2 RodneyS ___________________+1.3 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 __ +0.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ -4.5 Tom _______________________ +1.1 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.7 _ +1.1 __ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ -1.1 Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith _______________ +0.3 _ -0.3 _ -0.5 ___ -1.7 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ -3.5 _ +0.7 _ -2.5 RJay ________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 ___ +1.2 __0.0 _ -2.5 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Persistence __ (Jan 2025) __ -3.3 _ -2.5 _ -1.1 _____ -2.6 _ -4.1 _ -4.4 ___ -5.9 _ -1.2 _ -3.7 ============================= [] ============================= Warmest and coldest forecasts color coded, Normal is also colder than all forecasts at ATL, IAH and equal at DCA. Normal is also equal to warmest forecast for SEA. (persistence not incl in this analysis)

January is scored back in the Jan section, generally most of scores are in a narrow range and nobody broke 600 -- and I've decided I won't impose late penalties (would be small anyway) because of the distractions of recent events and it being a weekend etc. Will post a table of Feb forecasts soon.

Phil was seeing other groundhogs -- and even badgers and skunks. This is why I am not a philophile.

+0.3 _ -0.3 _ -0.5 _ -1.7 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ -3.5 _ +0.7 _ -2.5

A reminder to enter Feb forecast contest in 2025 contest thread.

A report of -55F at Peter Sinks, in northern utah. http://www.abc4.com/news/northern-utah/this-utah-location-dropped-to-negative-55-degrees-on-monday-night/