Roger Smith

Glasgow and Jordan MT 109 on Wed 24, record for Glasgow (108 in 1929). Turning cooler in stages in BC, but getting windy, several fires will be flaring up as a result.

Smoke on map over WA-OR-ID is from fires in those same states (several bad ones in Cascades of WA, Blues of OR), BC-AB smoke is drifting east and later south into high plains region. Despite living close to both sources, we have been in and out of smoke for days, AQI ranges from 50 to 200 as a result. A few raindrops with remnant cells over us at 1100h (18z) but no measurable rain, so now dry for 20 days locally. Cloud broke for afternoon and back up into mid 90s as a result. We are going to get some relief by Thursday here. Core of heat will then shift to central plains states. It was 107F on Sunday at Spokane WA breaking a record of 103F set in 1905. Today's high of 100F did not break record (103, 1938). Lows in 70s are unusual for region too.

New weekly records were set for mean minimum and mean daily for weeks ending June 23-25 (but not for mean max), and second to fourth place values were noted for weeks ending may 28, June 22 and 26, and July 11-12. Rainfall for weeks ending July 17 to 20 were close to a record high value but did not set a record in any weekly interval including total of 3.64" July 13-17.

19 days no rain at my location, average max so far 95 F. Probably going to be warmest month on record' high 102F on 20th.

July is the only month with >100F highs at NYC that are not daily records. June peaks at 98F and August 100F for non records. This is the full list of 100F days at NYC, showing which ones were not daily records ... 99F in may 1962 did not quite start the listing, nor did several 99F in June 1925 nor one in June 1956. None of dates mentioned saw a second place value above 96F but 99F tied 1943,52 for 06-25 had a 97 (1923) in third place. List starts with first 100 and ends with last 100 of year but includes days with records below 100F. Date ___ Record ___ Also 100+F (or second - third if record tied) 06-26 _ 100 1952 _____________ 96 1943,49,63 06-27 _ 101 1966 ____________98 1943 _ June's max non-record 06-28 __ 96 1969,91 _____________94 1870,80,1963 06-29 _ 101 1934 _____________97 1959,91 06-30 __ 99 1964 _____________97 1945 07-01 _ 100 1901 ___________99 1964 07-02 _ 100 1901,66 ________98 1941 07-03 _ 103 1966 __ 100 1898, 1911 07-04 _ 102 1949 __________ 99 1919 07-05 _ 101 1999 __________ 99 2010 07-06 _ 103 2010 __ 101 1999 07-07 _ 100 2010 ____________98 1986, 93 07-08 _ 100 1993 ____________98 1890, 1937 07-09 _ 106 1936 __ 101 1993, 100 1937 07-10 _ 102 1936,93 _100 1937 07-11 __ 98 1988 ______________97 1911,93 07-12 __ 99 1966 _______________ 96 1908 07-13 _ 101 1966 _______________ 96 1952,54,94 07-14 _ 100 1954 ______________ 96 1952,95 07-15 _ 102 1995 __________98 1983 07-16 __ 99 1980 __________98 1879, 1977 07-17 _ 100 1953 __________98 1955, 68, 99 07-18 _ 101 1953 _ 100 1977, 2012 07-19 _ 102 1977 __________ 98 1930 07-20 _ 101 1980 _ 100 1991 07-21 _ 104 1977 _ 102 1930,80,91 .. 100 1926, 57 _ __ highest 2nd place values (102F) 07-22 _ 104 2011 _ 101 1957 .. 100 1926, 55 07-23 _ 100 2011 ________ 99 1955, 91 07-24 __ 97 1999,2010 _____________ 94 1910,33,87 07-25 __ 97 1999 _________________ 95 1987 07-26 __ 98 1940 _____________97 1966 07-27 __ 98 1940,63 _________ 97 2005 07-28 __ 97 1892,1931,49,99 ___96 1993 07-29 __ 99 1949 ____________ 97 1892 07-30 __ 98 1917,33,40,88 _____96 1954 07-31 _ 102 1933 _ 100 1917 08-01 _ 100 1933 __________ 98 1917, 1999 08-02 _ 100 1955 __________ 98 1917,33,75 08-03 __ 97 2005 ________________96 1926,36,75,2006 08-04 _ 100 1944 _______________ 96 1993,95 08-05 _ 101 1944 _ 100 1955 __ tied for Aug second highest for date 08-06 __ 97 1931,55 _____________ 96 1918 08-07 _ 104 1918 _________99 1924,1931,2001 08-08 __ 99 2001 _________________96 1980 08-09 _ 103 2001 _ 100 1949 __ tied for Aug second highest for date 08-10 __ 98 1891, 1949 ________97 1944, 2001 08-11 _ 102 1944 _________99 1949 08-12 __ 97 1944 _________________96 2002,05 08-13 __ 99 2005 __________98 2002 08-14 __ 99 1988 _________________96 1918, 2005 08-15 __ 97 1988 _________________ 96 1938 08-16 __ 96 1944 ___________________ 95 1938 08-17 __ 95 1944,2015 _______________ 94 1922, 1987, 2002 08-18 __ 94 1913, 1987, 2002 _____________ 92 1956, 95 08-19 __ 94 1914, 1966, 2002 _____________ 92 1872, 1978 08-20 __ 97 1955 _________________96 1983 08-21 __ 96 1955 ___________________ 95 1869, 1937, 1995 08-22 __ 95 1916 ______________________94 1976 08-23 __ 92 1916 _____________________________ 91 1918 08-24 __ 94 1972 _______________________ 93 1898, 1947 08-25 __ 95 1948 ____________________94 1969, 93 08-26 _ 103 1948 _______________ 96 1993 08-27 _ 101 1948 _____________ 97 1980 08-28 _ 100 1948 ___________ 98 1953 08-29 __ 99 1953 ________________ 95 1948, 73 08-30 __ 98 1953,73 _____________ 95 1921 08-31 _ 100 1953 _______________96 2010 09-01 __ 97 1953 _______________ 96 2010 09-02 _ 102 1953 ______________97 1944 09-03 __ 99 1929 _______________96 1921,73 09-04 __ 97 1929 __________________ 94 1961 09-05 __ 94 1985 ___________________ 93 1961 09-06 __ 97 1881 ___________________ 94 1983 09-07 _ 101 1881 _____________________ 93 1919 (09-10 __ 99 1931,1993 ________ 96 2013) ==================== Interesting to note, a long stretch of lower highs Aug 17-25 with a recovery to Sep 7.

Final scoring for July 2024 based on data in previous post. FORECASTER ________________DCA_NYC_BOS__ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTALS Roger Smith__________________82 _ 98 _ 92 __ 272 __ 46 _ 98 _ 46 __ 190 _ 462 _ 66 _ 84 _92 __ 242 ____ 704 so_whats_happening ________ 94 _ 98 _ 84 __ 276 __ 56 _ 94 _ 60 __ 210 _ 486 _ 86 _ 32 _ 68 __ 186 ____ 672 wxallannj ____________________ 98 _ 90 _ 84 __ 272 __ 58 _ 90 _ 48 __ 196 _ 468 _ 68 _ 24 _ 92 __ 184 ____ 652 DonSutherland1 _____________ 86 _ 98 _ 98 __ 282 __ 50 _ 86 _ 60 __ 196 _ 478 _ 82 _ 30 _ 50 __ 162 ____ 640 Scotty Lightning _____________86 _ 98 _ 92 __ 276 __ 42 _ 90 _ 60 __ 192 _ 468 _ 82 _ 34 _ 56 __ 172 ____ 640 ___ Consensus _____________ 94 _ 98 _ 98 __ 290 __ 46 _ 90 _ 48 __ 184 _ 474 _ 68 _ 32 _ 62 __ 162 ____ 636 RodneyS _____________________56 _ 78 _ 80 __ 214 __ 94 _ 82 _ 60 __ 236 _ 450 _ 90 _ 14 _ 68 __ 172 ____ 622 wxdude64 ___________________54 _ 64 _ 66 __ 184 __ 98 _ 62 _ 86 __ 246 _ 430 _ 78 _ 26 _ 74 __ 178 ____ 608 George BM ___________________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 _ 42 __ 160 _ 442 _ 98 _ 18 _ 32 __ 148 ____ 590 Tom __________________________98 _ 86 _ 86 __ 270 __ 30 _ 74 _ 32 __ 136 _ 406 _ 66 _ 32 _ 62 __ 160 ____ 566 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 68 _ 84 _ 80 __ 232 __ 44 _ 78 _ 36 __ 158 _ 390 _ 62 _ 40 _ 60 __ 162 ____ 552 ___ Normal ___________________46 _ 58 _ 62 __ 166 __ 92 _ 70 _ 80 __ 242 _ 408 _ 88 _ 00 _ 46 __ 134 ____ 542 Stormchaser Chuck _________ 74 _ 86 _ 86 __ 246 __ 22 _ 98 _ 58 __ 178 _ 424 _ 44 _ 06 _ 36 __ 086 ____ 510 RJay _________________________ 80 _ 66 _ 64 __ 210 __ 18 _ 56 _ 10 __ 084 _ 294 _ 42 _ 48 _ 66 __ 156 ____ 450 rainsucks ____________________ 70 _ 56 _ 52 __ 178 ___ 02 _ 64 _ 18 __ 084 _ 262 _ 52 _ 44 _ 54 __ 150 ____ 412 __ Persistence (June 2024) __86 _ 80 _ 80 __ 246 __ 26 _ 60 _ 48 __ 134 _ 380 _ 00 _100 _ 26 __ 126 ____ 506 ================== Color coded for high and low forecasts. Normal is lowest for DCA, NYC, BOS and DEN. ---------------------------- Extreme forecast report DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL no extreme forecasts ORD and IAH were wins for wxdude64 with lowest forecasts. DEN was a win for George BM with lowest forecast. Counts as a loss for Normal. PHX and SEA were wins for Roger S with highest forecasts (SEA shared wxallannj). Annual updates to follow ...

Seasonal max contest _ scoring update (a) Forecasts FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning __________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____96 __ 104 _ 118 ____ 100 _ 121 __ 92 wxdude64 ________________ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 101 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 104 _ 118 __ 98 Roger Smith _______________102 _ 100 _ 100 ____101 __ 101 _ 109 ____ 104 _ 119 __ 97 rainsucks __________________102 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 104 __ 102 _ 107 ____ 104 _ 120 __99 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 95 ___ 98 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 98 Rhino16 ____________________101 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 102 __ 102 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 115 __ 98 ___ Consensus ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 ____99 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 97 DonSutherland1 ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 96 ___ 97 _ 104 ____ 101 _ 118 __ 97 Tom _______________________ 101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 99 ___102 _ 106 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 96 RJay _______________________100 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 100 __ 101 _ 105 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 95 so_whats_happening ______100 __ 98 __100 ____ 97 ___ 99 _ 102 ______98 _ 119 __ 97 RodneyS ___________________99 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 96 ___ 97 _ 102 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 97 wxallannj __________________98 __ 98 __ 96 _____ 99 ___ 97 _ 102 _____101 _ 120 __ 95 __ max to date (Aug 21) __104 _ 95 __ 98 _____ 97 __ 100 __102 _____102 _ 118 _ 98 (b) Errors to date underlined-italic errors are subject to increase as values so far are above forecast. Sum of "accumulated non-reversible error" appears after error totals. FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__ORD_ATL_IAH__DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL ___ Acc n-rev err Scotty Lightning __________ 1 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 1 __ 4 __16 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 6 ____ 38 ______ 10 wxdude64 ________________ 2 __ 7 __ 4 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 0 __0 ____ 24 _______ 2 Roger Smith ______________ 2 __ 5 __ 2 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 7 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 25 _______ 3 rainsucks _________________ 2 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 7 __ 2 __ 5 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 27 _______ 2 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 3 __ 6 __ 1 ____ 2 __ 2 __ 1 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 18 _______ 7 Rhino16 ___________________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 5 __ 2 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 0_____ 25 _______ 8 ___ Consensus ___________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 20 _______ 6 DonSutherland1 ___________ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 2 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 _____ 16 _______ 9 Tom _______________________ 3 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 2 __ 2 __4 ___ 3 __ 0 __ 2 _____19 _______ 8 RJay_______________________ 4 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 3 __ 1 __ 3 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 22 _______ 9 so_whats_happening ______ 4 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 1 _____16 _______ 6 RodneyS ___________________ 5 __ 4 __ 1 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 3 __ 0 __ 1 _____18 ______ 14 wxallannj___________________ 6 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 2 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 1 __ 2 __ 3 _____22 ______ 15 =================================== Scoring will be updated whenever new data require, and table will be moved to Aug and eventually Sep contests. It appears to be a very close contest so far.

Toronto had 3.29" rain on Tuesday, following 1.18" on Monday. This was a top five for July daily rainfall in 184 years of records, and it followed another daily record set on 10th (1.76"). It resulted in urban flooding and some water rescues from partially submerged cars. It was not quite as heavy a one- or two- day rainfall as July 7-8 2013, or a one-day record set in 1897 (on 28th). July 2024 is already third wettest July behind only 1841 and 2013. It will only take a normal amount of rain in next two weeks to reach first place. It will take about half of what has already fallen to equal wetter months of Sep 1843 and may 1894. Will keep track of where July 2024 finishes up relative to record values.

..Anomalies so far in July ... ___________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (7-17) __ anom for 1-16 ______ +4.8 _ +3.8 _ +4.0 ___ +0.2 _ +3.5 _ +0.8 ___ +0.7 _ +6.3 _ +5.9 (7-17) __ (p anom 1-31) ______ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.5 (7-22) _ updates July anom__ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ____ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.5 (7-26) _ updates July anom__ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ____ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ -1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +4.5 _ +2.5 (8-01) _ final anoms __________+2.7 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____-0.4 _+1.5 _ -1.0 _____+0.6 _ +5.6 _ +2.7 (17) _ Projections are based on +1 anoms for rest of July in east, central, and +3 to +4 in west. (22) _ Adjusted ORD, IAH and DEN down. (26) _ Adjusted IAH and SEA down. (01) _ Final anomalies posted. Scoring adjusted.

Thanks for all data posted about July 1936. There are stories of horrific urban death tolls in Chicago, NYC, and Toronto as well as lots of other places in those pre-A/C days and after a sizzling 105-110 day, no relief even if lows dipped a bit below 80, inside temps were likely well into 90s after a few days of it ... and stories of people sleeping on rooftops and in parks for duration of severe heat. Toronto set high min records only broken once since (78F on several of days of 105F interval). Also to give further idea of upper driving forces in July 1936, Toronto also had its sunniest and driest July on record. It basically did not rain at all and averaged 12 hrs sun per day. Drought must have been extreme in Ontario and upstate NY at least. It was quite warm also in may (a top 20 mean for Toronto and NYC) before a relatively cool June. Upper ridge probably peaking around 603-605 dm over SD-IA early in July, flattened a bit to allow heat to spread east, then retrogressed and a trof deepened over east coast later in July. Some further oscillations in August as heat was unrelenting in central plains states and showed up again briefly in eastern US and s Ontario early August (and again around Sept 18). 1854 was apparently a less extreme copy of 1936. Caswell's Providence RI journal talks about forest fire smoke clouds darkening skies around same time as 97-98 max in Toronto mid-July. As to winter 1936-37, you'll probably find in detail, very cold at times late NOV, milder last part of DEC and all JAN, still quite mild FEB, colder in march -- betting most of 20" snow occurred at bookends of a mild winter. Another summer with extreme heat in northeast US was 1911, any interesting runs of 100+ for you?

I would be interested in seeing data from July 1936 in your region. Toronto and New York City both set their all-time highs in July 1936 (Toronto 105F July 8, 9 and 10; NYC 106 July 9). A lot of other locations in eastern and central U.S. set very high records that month also. When it was reported that DCA matched a string of three hot days set in 1930, I started to wonder why 1936 wasn't in the mix (although NYC only went two days >100). The heat was generally intense from around 7th to mid-month (and also around Aug 3-5). A location in ND (Steele) was 120F and it exceeded 110 in parts of west-central Canada also, although July 1937 produced a hotter reading of 113F in SK and June 30, 2021 broke that national record in BC at 120F in Lytton BC -- it was 45C (113F) at my place so for a day I was living in a location tying our national record -- town of Lytton (pop 1200) was burned to ground by train-track-spark-induced fires on day of record warm max). There has been very little rebuilding yet because of insurance wrangles and archaeology issues (academics wanting to sift soil for cultural relics pre-settlement days). Not that there is any rush to live in this notorious hot spot anyway. On similar topic, a toasty 100F at 1230 local time as we endure day seven of our heat wave. I am by no means in a hot spot here, we live halfway upslope from Columbia River to alpine regions at around 3400' asl, it is probably around 105F in valley now.

WE JEBWALK !!! new contest leader Jebman _ scroll back two posts, scoring table updated. ... only five of 29 forecasters predicted an average 102 or over, current average is 102.5 for four locations. ... only one forecaster carries no expired forecasts (GeorgeBm) ... only four can now win contest (Jebman, George, RogerS, Rhino16) first of all, to overtake Jebman you need unexpired forecasts, of larger value than his differentials ... 1, 1, -1, 0. If your differentials are same at a given station, you have no advantage. A differential of zero at BWI is no advantage now either. This is a list of people with larger differentials than our leader, to use up and gain advantages. (Figure in brackets is your potential advantage, each degree you "receive" gives you a two-point gain vs Jebman, your max potential gain is twice number in brackets.) Same is true for you vs any forecaster in lists below. For example, at IAD, I have a +1 on Rhino16 for a potential gain of 2, but to realize it IAD has to reach 105F or above. For outcomes between current 101F at IAD and eventual 102 to 104, a smaller differential is no advantage over a larger one. You start gaining advantages over field when their forecasts are surpassed. Differentials larger than Jebman at each location DCA _ George 4 (+3) _ this effectively removes DCA from future relevance to contest unless George can hit other targets below since score differential is 26 and DCA only gives George a potential 6 point gain. Also, Jebman moves 2 points further ahead all other forecasters if DCA goes to 105F or above. IAD _ George 9 (+8), RogerS 4 (+3), Rhino16 3 (+2), NorthBaltiZen 2 (+1) __ George can recover up to 16 points vs Jebman, and bring total differential to four (before considering two stations below) if DCA worked out also. BWI _ George 6 (+6), RogerS 2 (+2) RIC _ George 10 (+10), RogerS 6 (+6), Rhino16 3 (+3), RickinBaltimore 2 (+2), yoda, katabatic, midAtlwx 1 (+1). Yoda could finish second to Jebman for a RIC 102F outcome. Last four in RIC list are too far behind Jebman now to utilize small advantages, but would move up by 2 or 4 points vs field if RIC goes to 102 or 103. NBZ is also too far behind to use a 2 point advantage at IAD but would finish second in contest if IAD hits 103F and no other changes took place. Safe zone for Jebman appears to be up to 106 103 106 103 At 106 103 106 103 scores would total Jebman 7 RogerS 9 Rhino16 10 George 21 If any station goes above 106-103-106-103 and rest hit, at that point RogerS could pass Jebman, and has further one degree (2 pt) advantage on Rhino16 at IAD after 104F, and advantages at BWI and RIC also. So Rhino16 can only win at one outcome (I think) and that is 104 104 104 104. (could be one or two successful outcomes nearby also) Going above 106-103-106-103 would mean only RogerS or George could win. Going past 106-105-106-107 is point where RogerS no longer enjoys any part of 12 point advantage as per above, so any addition of total of 6 degrees to that set (as an example 107-107-107-109) would create a tie broken by larger differentials, and any total of 7 or greater would result in a George win. Obviously if George makes targets, nobody will be left alive to discuss it anyway. (jk) So if current heat is ever surpassed in summer 2024 (many hope not) then those are possible contest results.

Large hail signature on that purple cell on radar, look out lower hudson valley. Could also go tornadic.

If you ever wondered, what's it like in Spokane, Boise or Salt Lake City in summer, this is about it, with a bit of added humidity. Around my location, we are into day six of 100+ (we ducked out to coast for days 2-5 for nice 85F relief) and as high as 105F several of recent days, we don't get really low dew points like Arizona, Nevada or southern Utah with the 115/39 sorts of readings, we get 100/60 to 65 fairly often and dew points can be into low 70s if hot air comes in over moist forests as was the case here before about July 5th (fire danger rating was low here two weeks ago, is now extreme as forests have dried out rapidly, but no large fires yet, just spot fires easily put down). If we stay in this heat another week as depicted in our region, we're going to see larger fires in PAC NW region and so you'll be seeing evidence by August or September in terms of smoke layers aloft. So far only large fires seem to be in Utah.

... incoming ... 103F at BWI already. Look for table edit by 8 pm, I need RIC to get in on this action.

Scoring after July 15, 2024 ... Roger Ramjet is our leader, yoda second on later entry (identical errors, different locations) Update: July 16, 2024 ... We Jebwalk !!! Actual to date __________________________ 104_101_104_101 Departures ________________________DCA IAD BWI RIC ____ TOTALS (rank) __ departures not reversible Jebman (20) _______________________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 3 (1) _____ 1 yoda (28) __________________________2 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 6 (2) _____ 5 Roger Ramjet (18) _________________3 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 6 (3) _____ 6 WxDavis5784 (11) _________________ 5 _ 0 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 6 (4)_____ 6 wxdude64 (6) _____________________3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 7 (5) _____ 6 Terpeast (10) ______________________4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 0 _________ 7 (6) _____ 6 ___ Consensus (median) ___________4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 7 (6.5)____7 katabatic (19) ______________________4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 8 (7) _____ 6 North Balti Zen (4) ________________ 4 _ 2 _ 2 _ 0 _________ 8 (8) _____ 6 Weather53 (22) ___________________ 4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 8 (9) _____ 8 LittleVillageWx (17) ________________ 5 _ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 8 (10)_____ 8 RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _________ 9 (11)_____ 6 PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________4 _ 1 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 9 (12) _____ 9 Gramax Refugee (15) ______________5 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 9 (13) _____ 9 Palocene (21) ______________________4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 0 _________10 (14)____10 Rhino16 (13) _______________________ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _________11 (15) ____ 5 WxUSAF (9) _______________________ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 1 _________ 11 (16)_____11 MN Transplant (25) ________________5 _ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _________ 11 (17) ____ 11 midAtlanticweather (24) ___________ 5 _ 0 _ 5 _ 1 _________ 11 (18)_____10 TSG (7) ____________________________ 6 _ 0 _ 5 _ 0 _________ 11 (19) _____11 biodhokie (8) ______________________ 4 _ 1 _ 5 _ 2 _________ 12 (20)_____12 LongRanger (27) ___________________ 6 _ 1 _ 2 _ 3 ________ 12 (21)_____12 nw baltimore wx (3) _______________ 5 _ 2 _ 4 _ 2 _________ 13 (22)_____13 Roger Smith (1) ____________________ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 6 _________ 13 (23) ____ 1 nmyers1204 (29) ___________________7 _ 2 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 13 (24)____ 12 GATECH (26) _______________________5 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _________ 14 (25) ____14 Jenkins Jinkies (14) ________________ 6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 1 __________14 (26) ____14 Eskimo Joe (16) ____________________ 6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _________15 (27) ____ 10 tplbge (23) _________________________ 5 _ 3 _ 5 _ 3 _________16 (28) ____ 16 George BM (12) _____________________4 _ 9 _ 6 _10 _______ 29 (29) _____ 0 ___ mean (avg) ____________________ 3.9 _ 0.1_ 2.9 _0.1 _____ 7.0 _______ 6.8 note: increasing surpassed errors in italic, total at end of data row __ ^^ _______________________________ (forecasts) FORECASTER (order of entry) ____ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC ____ average (rank) Average of four forecasts shows warm bias and is ranked, data illustrated by graphic format. George BM (12) ___________________ 108 _ 110 _ 110 _ 111 ________________ 109.75 (1) Jebman (20) ______________________ 105 _ 102 _ 103 _ 101 _________ 102.75 (t3) Roger Smith (1) ___________________ 103 _ 105 _ 106 _ 107 ___________ 105.25 (2) Rhino16 (13) _______________________102 _ 104 _ 101 _ 104 _________ 102.75 (t3) yoda (28) __________________________102 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _______ 101.5 (t6) RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 101 _ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _______ 101.75 (5) wxdude64 (6) _____________________ 101 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 101.25 (t9) Roger Ramjet (18) __________________101 _ 101 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 101.0 (t11) North Balti Zen (4) _________________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 101.5 (t6) katabatic (19) ______________________100 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 _______ 101.5 (t6) Terpeast (10) ______________________ 100 _ 102 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 101.25 (t9) Weather53 (22) ___________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 100.5 (t13) PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 100.25 (t15) biodhokie (8) ______________________ 100 _ 100 __ 99 __99 ______ 99.50 (t23) Palocene (21) ______________________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ______ 100.0 (18) ___ Consensus (median) ___________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 100.75 (12/13) WxUSAF (9) ________________________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ______ 99.75 (t19) WxDavis5784 (11) __________________ 99 _ 101 _ 103 _ 101 ______ 101.0 (t11) LittleVillageWx (17) _________________ 99 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ______ 100.5 (t13) MN Transplant (25) _________________ 99 _ 101 _ 100 __99 _______ 99.75 (t19) midAtlanticweather (24) ____________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 100.25 (t15) Gramax Refugee (15) _______________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _____ 100.25 (t15) nw baltimore wx (3) ________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 99.25 (25) GATECH (26) _______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ______ 99.0 (t26) tplbge (23) _________________________ 99 __ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 98.5 (29) TSG (7) _____________________________ 98 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 ______ 99.75 (t19) LongRanger (27) ____________________98 _ 100 _ 102 __ 98 ______ 99.50 (t23) Jenkins Jinkies (14) _________________98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ______ 99.0 (t26) Eskimo Joe (16) _____________________98 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _____ 98.75 (28) nmyers1204 (29) ___________________ 97 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 99.75 (t19) ___ mean (avg) ____________________ 100.1_ 101.1_ 101.1 _101.1 ___100.85 (raw differentials for future edits _ increasing surpassed errors in italic) George BM (12) ___________________ 4 _ 9 _ 6 _10 ________________ 109.75 (1) Jebman (20) ______________________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 102.75 (t3) ___ Current actuals ________________ 0 _ 0 _ 0 _ 0 _______ 102.0 (would be 5) Roger Smith (1) ___________________ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 6 ___________ 105.25 (2) Rhino16 (13) _______________________2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _________ 102.75 (t3) yoda (28) __________________________2 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _______ 101.5 (t6) RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _______ 101.75 (5) wxdude64 (6) _____________________ 3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _______ 101.25 (t9) Roger Ramjet (18) __________________3 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _______ 101.0 (t11) North Balti Zen (4) _________________4 _ 2 _ 2 _ 0 _______ 101.5 (t6) katabatic (19) ______________________ 4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _______ 101.5 (t6) Terpeast (10) ______________________ 4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 0 _______ 101.25 (t9) Weather53 (22) ___________________ 4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 ______ 100.5 (t13) PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________4 _ 1 _ 3 _ 1 ______ 100.25 (t15) biodhokie (8) ______________________ 4 _ 1 _ 5 _ 2 ______ 99.50 (t23) Palocene (21) ______________________ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 0 ______ 100.0 (18) ___ Consensus (median) ___________ 4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 ______ 100.75 (12/13) WxUSAF (9) ________________________4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 1 ______ 99.75 (t19) WxDavis5784 (11) __________________ 5 _ 0 _ 1 _ 0 ______ 101.0 (t11) LittleVillageWx (17) _________________ 5 _ 0 _ 2 _ 1 ______ 100.5 (t13) MN Transplant (25) _________________ 5 _ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _______ 99.75 (t19) midAtlanticweather (24) ____________ 5 _ 0 _ 5 _ 1 _____ 100.25 (t15) Gramax Refugee (15) _______________ 5 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _____ 100.25 (t15) nw baltimore wx (3) ________________ 5 _ 2 _ 4 _ 2 ______ 99.25 (25) GATECH (26) _______________________ 5 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 ______ 99.0 (t26) tplbge (23) _________________________ 5 _ 3 _ 5 _ 3 _____ 98.5 (29) TSG (7) _____________________________ 6 _ 0 _ 5 _ 0 ______ 99.75 (t19) LongRanger (27) ____________________6 _ 1 _ 2 _ 3 ______ 99.50 (t23) Jenkins Jinkies (14) _________________6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 1 ______ 99.0 (t26) Eskimo Joe (16) _____________________6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _____ 98.75 (28) nmyers1204 (29) ___________________ 7 _ 2 _ 3 _ 1 ______ 99.75 (t19) ___ mean (avg) ____________________ 3.9 _0.1_ 2.9 _0.1 ___100.85 _______________________________

Salt Lake City 106F on July 11, locations across s/c UT above 100F and two large fires largely out of control to s.e. and also n.w. of Bryce Canyon NP.

Updated highs for 2024 so far ... see June contest thread for forecasts and previous values to date. DCA_104 (7/16) ... NYC_95 ... BOS_98 ... ORD_97 ... ATL_100 ... IAH_ 100 ... DEN_102 (7/12) ... PHX_118 ... SEA _ 98 (9th) I have beat them all except PHX so far (105 locally today July 10). Las Vegas 120 and Death Valley 129, not going to want to beat those. Will update anomalies at mid-month after 16 days as I consider 1-16 first half of a 31-day month.

Today's record max of 134F at Death Valley is still listed on NWS climate report as a daily record (and all-time), but as mentioned, some doubt was raised about exposure or calibration of 1913 era reports, not saying it was a lot cooler since 131F recently is max more widely accepted. July 10 also one of Toronto's max days from July 1936 (105F on July 8, 9 and 10) in 184 years of records (103F in July 1911 is next warmest) ... NYC max is 106F on July 9, 1936. It is a stifling 101F at my location and 105F down in valley today. A weak cold front made it as far as Cascades but will not have a lot of impact east of Okanagan valley as cool air is quickly modified to near same temps as interior air mass. But a pleasant 75-80F around Vancouver BC today.

Las Vegas broke all-time record twice in past few days, 120F and 119F. It was around 105 F locally past two days. Not quite like 2021 but very uncomfortable.

Low is going to be near Lake Erie late Wed, cold front will be passing you around 09z Thursday 11th.

Death Valley 129F ... the old record of 134F in July 1913 is no longer regarded as properly exposed but I believe 131F is the accepted top value there. About 95F here today, very low dew points at least.

09z message is setting stage for possible eastward jog and landfall towards Galveston. It would keep Beryl over very warm waters a bit longer, landfall would probably be delayed to 21z monday and just about time to deepen to low cat-3. You can see concern for s.e. Texas growing.

Table of forecasts for July 2024 FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA hudsonvalley21 ______________+4.3 _ +2.9 _ +2.9 ___+2.4 _ +2.6 _+2.2 ___ +2.5 _+2.3 _+0.7 rainsucks ____________________+4.2 _ +4.2 _ +4.3 ___+4.5 _ +3.3 _+3.1 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.4 RJay _________________________+3.7 _ +3.7 _ +3.7 ___ +3.7 _ +3.7 _+3.5 ___+3.5 _+2.7 _+1.0 George BM ___________________+3.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.7 ___ +2.2 _ +3.0 _+1.9 ___ +0.7 _+1.2 _ -0.7 wxallannj _____________________+2.8 _ +2.6 _ +2.7 ___ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +1.6 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _+2.3 Tom __________________________+2.6 _ +2.8 _ +2.6 ___ +3.1 _ +2.8 _ +2.4 ___ +2.3 _+1.9 _+0.8 so_whats_happening ________ +2.4 _ +2.2 _ +2.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.3 _+1.9 __ +1.1 ___ Consensus ______________+2.4 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 ___ +2.3 _ +2.0 _+1.6 ___+2.2 _+1.9 _ +0.8 DonSutherland1 _____________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +2.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.5 _+1.8 _ +0.2 Scotty Lightning _____________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___+2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.5 _+2.0 _ +0.5 Roger Smith__________________ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ +2.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 ___ +2.3 _ +4.5 _+2.3 Stormchaser Chuck __________+1.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ +3.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.1 ___ +3.4 _ +0.6 _ -0.5 RodneyS _____________________+0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.9 ___ -0.1 _ +0.6 _ +1.0 ____+1.1 __ +1.0 _ +1.1 wxdude64 ___________________+0.4 _ +0.3 _ +0.2 ___ -0.3 _ -0.4 _ -0.3 ____+1.7 _ +1.6 _ +1.4 ___ Normal ____________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ================== Color coded for high and low forecasts. Normal is lowest for DCA, NYC, BOS and DEN. ___ Persistence (June 2024) ______+3.4 __ +3.1 __ +2.9 ___ +3.3 __ +3.5 __ +1.6 _____ +5.6 __ +5.6 __ -1.0

Looking at various buoy reports and water temps are above 88F even 50-60 miles off coast, and above 92F in shallow waters near coast (Baffin Bay reports 93+). I notice storm surge watch extends to Sabine Pass. If Beryl does continue to track east of guidance it will take longer to reach coastal waters and will have a few extra hours to intensify, thus concern for possible cat-3 outcome if so. I agree it would likely be capped at cat-2 if it does hit west of Galveston as most seem to expect.