Roger Smith

I am seeing 85-90 potential next week. This weekend closer to 75 F with more cloud and a bit of an east wind component, but the mid-week second warmup looks more direct with a southwesterly flow. What's the earliest 90F at various local stations? Extreme warmth in early spring is often correlated with below normal temperatures in late spring and early summer. For example in 1945 it was warmer from mid-March to mid-April than it was from mid-May to mid-June in a lot of places in the northeastern states and Ontario.

You guys will hit 85-90F next week the way things are looking. Even so, it could in theory snow in April after some warmth in March. I believe it snowed in Apr 1938 after very warm readings in March.

I posted info about 2d 6.0" snowfalls in those intervals, the 1949-56 interval ends in Jan 1954 for 2d snow (9th-10th), and the 1917-1921 interval ends in Feb 1920, the other intervals all appear to survive intact (no interior 2d 6.0" totals), albeit some very close to 6.0" values. The post on this was back around midnite.

I had a look at daily snowfall data to check for 2d totals of 6.0" and found following facts, generally speaking the list is almost intact for absence of 2d 6.0" totals, with one significant exception (1917 to 1921 ended as Don already mentioned with a 3-day total of 17" of snow in Feb 1920). 1949-56 was also reduced to 1949-54. Details follow ... 1949 03-01 to 1956 03-15 ... 5.8" Jan 28 (5.5") -29 (0.3") 1952 was closest to invalidating for 2d 6", no other 2d snowfalls exceeded 5" until Jan 10-11 1954 (7.8") broke the streak for 2d at 1409 days (03-01-1949 also removed for being tail end of a 2d 9.8"). ... in third place in revised 2d list. 1996 02-17 to 2000 12-29 ... 5.5" Jan 25 2000, and 5.0" mar 22 1998, were one-day events and no 2d 6.0" snowfalls intervened. As there was snow on 1996 02-17, interval is shortened by one day. This (1996 02-18 to 2000 12-29) became longest interval with no 2d 6.0" events at 1777 days. 1987 01-23 to 1990 12-27 ... 5.8" Jan 3-4 1988 was largest 2d fall so, taking away one day (1990 12-27) this interval stays at 1434 days in second place for absence of 2d 6.0". 1929 02-22 to 1932 12-16 ... 3.9" Dec 23-24 1930 was largest 2d fall so entire interval was also devoid of any 2d 6.0" falls, at 1394 days, it is fourth longest. 1917 12-14 to 1921 02-19 ... 5.9" Jan 22 1918 narrowly avoided taking 38 days off this interval, but 5.7" Feb 3, 5.9" Feb 4 and 5.4 " Feb 5 1920 were well over 6" for 2d and as it had snowed on 1917-12-14 the revised interval dropped to 1917 12-15 to 1920 02-02, for only 780 days. 1971 01-02 to 1974 02-07 ... 5.7" Feb 19 1972 and 5.9" Jan 9-10 1974 failed to reduce this interval which stays at 1133 days (fifth place now tied with 2022-25). The present interval starting 2022 01-30 to 2025 03-07 is devoid of any 2d intervals greater than 4". Thus only one of the 6.0" avoidance spells drops out ahead of the present one, if we take two day totals as criterion (the 1917-21 interval). Only one other (1949-56 >> 1949-54) was significantly shortened, while remaining ahead of 2022-25. Looking at the other three intervals already passed, 1885-1888 had no 2d falls greater than 6.0" in winters of 1885-86 and 1886-87 or Jan-Feb 1888. 1983-1986 interval was shortened by 6.9" falling mar 8-9, 1984. 1975-1978 is also intact despite close call in Jan 1977.

That's the tariffs coming into effect. Expect some 120 degree highs in July also.

I gave a break on late penalties in Feb (to RJay and so_whats_happening), and I'll do the same for you two as you posted in a similar time frame. Let's say every regular forecaster can expect a break once during the contest year, with second late appearances being penalized as per lenient rules we have. I only impose 1% per half day to 3rd then it would start to increase (after 18z 3rd) to 1% per hour. All scoring for Feb complete, added Four Seasons winter rankings to previous post today (2nd). Table of forecasts will follow as I think all regular entrants are in now. __ Table of forecasts for March 2025 __ FORECASTER ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Maxim ______________________________ +6.3 _+5.5 _+5.7 __ +8.0 _+5.5 _ +5.5 ___ +5.1 _+0.7 _-1.0 StormchaserChuck1 ________________ +4.7 _+4.5 _+4.8 __ +7.0 _+4.5 _ +3.8 ___ +3.2 _+2.4 _-2.7 so_whats_happening _______________ +4.5 _+3.9 _+2.2 __ +4.8 _+4.2 _ +4.1 ___ -0.5 _ -2.8 _ -1.6 RJay ________________________________ +3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 __ +2.5 _+3.0 _ +3.0 ___ -3.0 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 wxallannj ___________________________ +3.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 __ +4.0 _+2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +1.0 _ -0.7 _ -1.0 Tom ________________________________ +2.8 _+2.7 _+3.1 ___ +5.8 _+2.9 _ +4.8 ___ +3.1 _ +1.3 _ -1.9 hudsonvalley21 _____________________ +2.3 _+2.1 _+3.3 ___ +2.9 _+3.6 _ +3.5 ___ +1.8 _ -0.3 _-0.6 ___ Consensus _____________________+2.3 _+2.1 _+2.3 ___+2.9 _+2.9 _ +3.0 ___+1.0 _+0.2 _-1.0 BKViking ____________________________ +2.0 _+2.1 _+2.3 ___ +2.5 _+3.2 _+3.0 ___ +1.2 _+0.2 _-1.0 DonSutherland1 _____________________ +2.0 _+1.4 _+1.4 ___ +3.6 _+2.0 _ +3.2 ___ +2.4 _+1.0 _-0.3 Scotty Lightning _____________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ 0.0 wxdude64 ___________________________+0.6 _+0.4 _-0.2 ___ +0.8 _+1.9 _+2.2 ___ +0.8 _+0.9 _-0.7 RodneyS _____________________________+0.4 _+0.7 _+0.6 ___ +1.1 _ -0.4 _ +2.1 ___ +0.5 _-0.3 _ -0.2 ___ Normal ____________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith _________________________ -1.5 _ -1.3 _ -0.2 ___ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 ___ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ +0.3 ___ Persistence __ (Feb 2025) _______ +1.0 _ -0.8 _ -1.1 ___ -1.6 _ +4.1 _ +2.4 ___ -1.5 _ +6.1 _ -3.6 ================= [] =================== Warmest and coldest forecasts color coded (Persistence not incl) ... Normal is colder for IAH.

Clear and mild around here past two days, our 2' snowpack is slowly evaporating. Wonderful view of crescent moon near Venus after sunset -- will repeat in a different orientation Sunday evening. Also easy to find, Jupiter almost overhead at sunset, and mars to its east.

DAILY RECORDS for NYC (March) DATE ___ TEMPERATURES ___________________________________________ PRECIP ________________________________ notes _________ High max ___ high min _____ Low max ___ Low min ________ Max prec ___ Max snow ___ Max 2d snow _ Mar 01 __ 73 1972 ___ 54 2017 _______ 16 1886 _____ 4 1869 _______ 2.95 1914RS_13.5 1914 ____13.5 1914* Mar 02 __ 72 1972 ___ 50 1972, 91 ______ 21 1884 _____ 9 1891 _______ 2.41 2007R__10.0 1896 ____14.5 1914 (8.3" 2009 1.8+6.5) Mar 03 __ 68 2024^___49 2020 ______ 26 1943,50,2009 _11 2003^____ 2.25 1906R___12.5 1960 ____12.5 1960* Mar 04 __ 70 1974 ___ 51 1880 _______ 20 1873 _____ 6 1872 _______ 1.65 1977R___6.0 1893,1917__14.5 1960 Mar 05 __ 72 1880 ___ 50 1979 _______ 10 1872 _____ 3 1872 _______ 1.81 1920RS__8.6 1981 ____ 8.6 1981* Mar 06 __ 68 1935, 2022 _50 2011 ____ 17 1901 _____ 5 1872 _______ 2.63 1979R___7.6 1916 ____ 8.6 1981** Mar 07 __ 74 1946, 2022 _51 2009 ___ 20 1913 _____ 7 1890 _______ 1.87 1967R___6.0 1870 ____ 7.7 1915 (6.9+0.8) Mar 08 __ 76 1987 ___ 54 1987 _______ 23 1883 _____ 8 1883 _______ 1.78 1941S__ 15.7 1941 ____ 18.1 1941 Mar 09 __ 77 2016 ___ 48 2000 ______ 24 1996 _____11 1996 _______ 1.82 1998R___5.3 1928 ____15.7 1941** Mar 10 __ 79 2016 ___ 63 2016 _______ 28 1987 _____12 1929 ________1.62 1994R___ 6.0 1907 ____ 6.0 1907* Mar 11 __ 73 1977 ___ 50 1967, 77 _____ 28 1885 _____14 1960 _________2.94 1901R___3.8 1896 ____ 6.0 1907** Mar 12 __71 1890, 2012_ 52 2021 /_______ 26 1900 _____ 8 1888 ________2.33 1962R__16.5 1888 ____16.5 1888* Mar 13 __ 85 1990 ___ 54 2012 _______ 12 1888 _____ 6 1888 _________3.86 2010R__10.2 1993 ____19.5 1888 Mar 14 __ 75 1946 ___ 51 1953 _______ 28 1892 _____12 1888 _________1.97 2017RS__7.6 2017 ____10.6 1993 Mar 15 __ 77 1990 ___ 51 2024^ ______ 24 1900 _____14 1993 (33) ___ 1.81 1912R___6.0 1906 ____ 7.6 2017** Mar 16 __ 82 1990 ___ 55 1990 _______ 20 1911 _____13 1911 _________ 2.03 2007RS__8.4 1896 ____12.0 1896_ 2007 prec incl 5.5" snow Mar 17 __ 75 1945 ___ 53 1990 _______ 25 1885,1900 __ 9 1916 ________ 1.42 1968R___3.5 1877 ____ 8.4 1896** Mar 18 __ 77 1989, 2011 _51 2011 _______20 1967 _____7 1916 (24) _____ 3.10 1983R___7.1 1892 ____ 8.0 1892 Mar 19 __ 76 1918 ___ 55 2012 _______ 22 1877 _____ 8 1967 _________ 2.19 1881R___7.8 1956 ____11.6 1956 Mar 20 __ 83 1945 ___ 57 1948 ______ 21 1885 _____11 1885 _________ 1.93 1913R___4.7 1958 ____ 7.8 1956** Mar 21 __ 84 1921 ___ 57 2012 _______ 21 1885 _____10 1885 _________ 2.21 1980R___8.2 2018 ____11.8 1958 Mar 22 __ 78 2012^___57 1948 _______ 22 1885 _____12 1885 _________3.44 1977R___9.0 1967 ____ 9.8 1967 Mar 23 __ 76 1923,2012_ 58 2012 ______ 20 1888 _____13 1875, 1934___3.66 2024R^__4.3 1896 ____ 9.0 1967** Mar 24 __ 76 1988 ___ 52 1903 _______ 26 1888 _____12 1888 ________ 2.05 1989R___1.2 1956 ____ 4.5 1896 Mar 25 __ 79 1963^___61 1913 _______ 30 1873,78 __13 1878 _________ 4.25 1876R___0.5 1876,99__ 1.2 1956**^ Mar 26 __ 82 2021/ __ 52 1986, 2021_35 1872,1937,47_20 1960 (35,36 25th,26th)_1.42 1913R__1.2 1924 ___ 1.2 1924* Mar 27 __ 83 1998 ___ 61 1949 _______ 30 1894 _____ 20 1894 _______ 1.79 1919R___1.0 1886 ____ 1.2 1924** Mar 28 __ 84 1945^___ 63 1998 _______33 2022*_____13 1923 _______ 2.98 2005R___1.5 1984 ____ 1.5 1984* (1.4" snow 1919) Mar 29 __ 86 1945^___ 62 1998^______ 29 1887 _____10 1923 (32) ___ 2.03 1984RS__4.0 1970 ____ 4.1 1996 (0.3+3.8) 1984 1.8" snow Mar 30 __ 82 1998^___ 59 1998 _______31 1884 _____ 16 1887 (33) ___ 2.45 2010R___4.5 1883 ____ 4.5 1883* Mar 31 __ 86 1998 ____ 66 1998 _______34 1923 _____ 14 1923 _______ 2.20 1934R___2.8 1890 ____ 4.5 1883** -- - - - - - - - - - - - -- 2d records are for date and previous date. * for 2d record = all fell on date, none previous date ** for 2d record = all fell on previous date, none on table date ^ notes above for March (not incl above general notes) 3rd _ previous record 65F 1991. 2024, min 48F fell one below 2020 record. 3rd _ Low min 11 also 1925,38,43,50,62 (and 2003) 12th _ / replaces 50F 1898 15th _ 2024 record high min 51F replaced 49F 1913, 2019 22nd _ max 77F 1938 23rd _ new rainfall record 2024 replaces 1.60" 1929R 25th _ max 75F 1910 25th _ cold rain 1912 could have incl sleet, 1-5" snow, missing snow data 26th / _ new record max 2021 replaces 76 1922. 28th _ max 79 1946, 29th max 78 1946, 29th min 60 1945, 57 1946 28th _ low max 33F 2022 replaced 34F 1893. 30th _ max 78F 1910

First and second of March 1972 were very warm, and set records, but second half was cold, as was most of April. Wonder if that's how 2025 will also turn out? (Agnes around June 21-23 1972 also record cold and wet, May 1972 was warm, July hot and Aug-Sep near average, Oct cold).

-1.5 _ -1.3 _ -0.2 _ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ +0.3

Don, all of those 43-52 ranked winters had big heat waves later.

Re 1846: William S. Forrest, in "Historical and Descriptive Sketches of Norfolk and Vicinity" in 1853, recorded the Great Gust of 1846. The Great Gust was a severe coastal storm that produced 5 feet waves in Norfolk. Toronto (station started in 1840) recorded 41" of snow in 3 separate storms Feb 9-22 1846, (22" fell in last one) and it then turned record cold. While this storm pounded Norfolk, VA it was -16, -17F for record lows on Feb 27, 28 at Toronto. Very similar to a setup Feb 29-mar 2, 1980. (Virginia Beach 20" snow) ... any idea if NYC got snow in 1846 or did the low stay south?

Those 1717 dates are Julian calendar, if they had been in Gregorian (that began in 1752 in the British colonies) it would have been eleven days later. There is a mention of a Sunday, Feb 24 -- this proves my point, calendars repeat every 28 years (except for missing leap years in 1800 and 1900). 308 years later (2025) is 28 x 11 ... so the 1717 calendar, if Gregorian (n.s.) would have a Sunday Feb 21. In the Julian calendar (eleven days were removed in 1752) it would be Feb 10, and so Feb 24 was also a Sunday. The significance is that the biggest snowfalls were in early to mid-march in our calendar, same timing as the blizzard of 1888. Sunday, Feb 24 is actually march 7 in modern calendar, and march 7 of 1717 would be march 18 if using new style.

A reminder to enter March forecast contest in 2025 contest thread.

LB, lowest winter maxima (Dec 1 to Feb 29): Winter _________ max __ date(s) ______ Extended period as cold or colder 1880-1881 _____ 53 ___ Feb 12 _______ Nov 6 - Mar 15 (130d) 1904-1905 _____ 53 ___ Jan 1 ________ Nov 21 - Mar 17 (117d) 1872-1873 _____ 54 ___ Jan 17 _______ Nov 15 - Mar 22 (128d) 1874-1875 _____ 54 ___ Feb 24 _______ Nov 30 - Mar 11 (102d) 1882-1883 _____ 54 ___ Feb 4 ________ Nov 14 - Mar 1 (108d) 1903-1904 _____ 54 ___ Dec 13, Jan 23 _ Nov 18 - Mar 23 (126d) since 1905, following cases are coldest since ... 1935-1936 _____ 56 ___ Dec 9 ________ Nov 29 - Mar 9 (101d) 1963-1964 _____ 55 ___ Dec 8, Jan 25 _ Dec 1 - Mar 1 (92d) 1976-1977 _____ 58 ___ Feb 25 _______ Nov 28 - Mar 4 (97d) 1977-1978 _____ 58 ___ Jan 9 _________Nov 18 - Mar 20 (123 d) 1981-1982 _____ 58 ___ Dec 2, Jan 4, Feb 1 _ Nov 28 - Mar 11 (104d) 1986-1987 _____ 59 ___ Dec 3 ________ Nov 27 - Mar 6 (100d) 2003-2004 ____ 59 ___ Feb 29 _______ Nov 29 - Feb 29 (93d) ... ... ... additional winters no max 60 or above not in above list 56 _ 1883-1884, 1909-1910, 1910-1911, 1926-1927 57 _ 1870-1871, 1871-1872, 1888-1889, 1894-1895, 1896-1897, 1898-1899, 1907-1908, 1922-1923 58 _ 1876-1877, 1887-1888, 1892-1893, 1913-1914, 1925-1926, 1930-1931, 1933-1934, 1944-1945, 1961-1962 59 _ 1877-1878, 1890-1891, 1893-1894, 1899-1900, 1900-1901, 1917-1918, 1947-1948, 1955-1956, 1957-1958 ... a total of 43 winters (no max 60 or above) ... five since 1975 and eleven since 1940 Also, longest intervals no max 60 or above (incl all >120d and recent or 53, 54 max cases) Winter __________ interval 1894-1895 ______ 156d _Nov 4 - Apr 8 1880-1881 ______ 155d _Nov 6 - Apr 9 1876-1877 ______ 151d _Nov 15 - Apr 14 1871-1872 ______ 148d _Nov 2 - Mar 28 1899-1900 ______ 147d _Nov 10 - Apr 5 (weak, sev'l 59F in Dec) 1890-1891 ______ 145d _Nov 19 - Apr 12 1872-1873 ______ 142d _Nov 13 - Apr 3 1900-1901 ______ 136d _Nov 27 - Apr 11 1907-1908 ______ 136d _Nov 11 - Mar 25 1904-1905 ______ 134d _Nov 4 - Mar 17 1892-1893 ______ 133d _Nov 19 - Mar 31 1930-1931 ______ 132d _Nov 23 - Apr 3 1910-1911 _______ 131d _Nov 11 - Mar 21 1887-1888 ______ 129d _Nov 29 -Apr 5 1903-1904 ______ 129d _Nov 18 - Mar 25 1925-1926 ______ 128d _Nov 17 - Mar 24 1947-1948 ______ 128d _Nov 9 - Mar 15 1961-1962 ______ 127d _Nov 18 - Mar 24 1874-1875 ______ 126d _Nov 24 - Mar 29 1957-1958 ______ 126d _Nov 30 - Apr 4 1977-1978 ______ 125d _Nov 18 - Mar 22 1893-1894 _____ 123d _Nov 3 - Mar 5 1888-1889 ______ 122d _Nov 11 - Mar 12 1913-1914 ______ 122d _ Nov 24 - Mar 25 1981-1982 ______ 122d _Nov 28 - Mar 29 1898-1899 ______ 120d _Nov 12 - Mar 11 (recent or very cold only below ... a lot of 56-59F cases were 100-119 days below 60F) 1882-1883 ______ 108d _Nov 14 - Mar 1 1935-1936 ______ 108d _Nov 29 - Mar 16 1986-1987 ______ 100d _Nov 27 - Mar 6 1976-1977 _______ 97d _Nov 28 - Mar 4 1963-1964 _______ 96d _Nov 30 - Mar 4 2003-2004 ______ 93d _Nov 29 - Feb 29

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === Feb scores and annual totals are now adjusted FORECASTER _______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS RodneyS _____________________ 184 _134 _148 __ 466 __ 128 _142 _112 __ 382 _ 848 __ 79 _124 _142 __ 345____1193 wxallannj _____________________154 _136 _158 __ 448 __ 166 _120 _134__ 420 _ 868 __126 _ 92 _ 99 __ 317 ____ 1185 ___ Consensus ______________ 172 _150 _136 __ 458 __154 _168 _124 __ 446 _ 904 _ 87 _ 76 _106 __ 269 ____1173 wxdude64 ____________________174 _168 _172 __ 514 __ 152 _ 138 _112 __ 402 _ 916 __103 _ 66 _ 82 __ 251 ____ 1167 Roger Smith __________________180 _190 _170 __ 540 __ 180 _136 _ 94 __ 410 _ 950 __60 _ 44 _ 93 __ 197 ____ 1147 BKViking _____________________ 144 _134 _116 __ 394 __ 182 _176 _119 __ 477 _ 871 __123 _ 52 _100 __ 275 ____ 1146 RJay __________________________156 _174 _160 __ 490 __166 _ 160 _ 93 __ 419 _ 909 __ 69 _ 24 _ 88 __ 181 ____ 1090 so_whats_happening _________142 _120 _100 __ 362 __ 88 _ 178 _107 __ 373 _ 735 __ 108 _ 80 _140__ 328 ____1063 Scotty Lightning _____________ 194 _144 _110 __ 448 __120 _ 96 _ 132 __ 348 _ 796 __ 65 _ 78 _ 76 __ 219 ____ 1015 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 140 _130 _128 __ 398 __ 94 _ 144 _117 __ 355 __ 753 __98 _ 66 _ 96 __ 260 ____1013 DonSutherland1 ______________ 122 _124 _126 __ 372 ___106 _150 _ 90 __ 346 _ 718 __69 _ 48 _110 __ 227 ____ 945 ___ Normal ____________________114 _134 _156 __ 404 __116 _ 36 __67 ___ 219 __ 623 __108 _100_ 86__ 294 ____ 917 Tom __________________________ 150 _114 _ 112 __ 376 __104 _104 _116 __ 324 __ 700 __100 _ 44 _ 58__ 202 ____902 StormchaserChuck ___________ 100 _ 68 _ 64 __ 232 __24 _ 148 _ 59__ 231 __ 463 ___57 _ 52 _ 81 __ 190 ____ 653 maxim (1/2) ___________________ 84 _ 80 _ 98 __ 262 __ 48 _ 58 _ 00 __ 106 __ 368 __ 10 _ 06 _ 55 __ 071 ____ 439 - - - - Persistence ___________________ 44 _134 _186 __ 364 ___ 98 _ 00 _ 00 __ 098 _ 462 __ 12 _ 00 _ 98 __ 110 ____ 572 ____________________________ _____ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ____________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS RodneyS ____________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 wxallannj ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Consensus _____________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxdude64 __________________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan Roger Smith ________________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___1 __ 1 * __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Feb BKViking ____________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RJay ________________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 so_whats_happening _______ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 1^ __ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Don Sutherland 1 ___________ 0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Normal __________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom ________________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 StormchaserChuck _________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 maxim ______________________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 10 of 18 ... 2 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4 Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb ___ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 ___ 3-1 ___ 3.0 -1.0 Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 __ 3-1 ____ 2.5 -1.0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0__ 2-0 ____ 1.0 -0.0 Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____ 1.0 -0.0 BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 ___ 1-0 ____ 1.0-0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.5 -0.0 Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 wxdude64 ________________ 1^-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 Normal ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 ____ 1-1 ____ 1.0 -1.0 RJay, Tom, SC ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-0 ========================================================= Four Seasons Winter 2024-2025 scoring 12 pts to winner, 10 down to 1 point for rest of field, and 1 point for all entrants at least 2/3. FORECASTER ________________ DEC _ JAN _ FEB ___ TOTAL _____ points BKViking _____________________659 __ 590 __ 556 ____ 1805 ___ 12 wxallannj _____________________615 __ 585 __ 600 ____ 1800 ___ 10 RJay _________________________ 613 __ 476 __ 614 ____ 1703 ____ 9 so_whats_happening ________ 599 __ 577 __ 486 ____ 1662 ____ 8 ___ Consensus ______________ 598 __ 585 __ 588 ____ 1771 ___ 9.7 wxdude64 ___________________ 486 __ 599 __ 568 ____ 1653 ____ 7 Roger Smith __________________470 __ 473 __ 674 ____ 1617 ____ 6 Don Sutherland1 ______________642 __ 531 __ 414 ____ 1587 ____ 5 Scotty Lightning _____________ 527 __ 485 __ 530 ____ 1542 ____ 4 hudsonvalley21 _______________519 __ 565 __ 448 ____ 1532 ____ 3 RodneyS _____________________ 295 __ 559 __ 634 ____ 1488 ____ 2 Tom __________________________ 515 __ 406 __ 496 ____ 1417 ____ 1 ___ Normal __________________ 470 __ 415 __ 502 ____ 1387 ____ 1 StormchaserChuck __________ 675 __ 289 __ 364 ____ 1328 ____ 1 ___________________________ Persistence ___________________202 __ 202 __ 370 _____ 774 ___ 1 ____________________________ maxim ___________________ --- __ 439 __ --- ____ 439 __ 0

It was June (5-6) 1816 when it snowed in New England after the April 1815 eruption of Tamboro volcano in (present day) Indonesia. Temperatures were 3 to 5 deg below normal even by averages back then, all around the northern hemisphere. The first few days of June 1945 were also exceptionally cold in eastern N America.

Texas temp range is presently 4F to 87F, near-blizzard in ne OK and e KS. Still needs the uppers to co-operate but the surface components are impressive. If only the upper low was not so flabby -- I need to pump you up.

Looks similar to mar 1-2 1980 incl record cold air mass.

18z nam is a weaker and more OTS evolution than 12z was.

What it looks like now ... raging blizzard across KS, ne OK, weak and undeveloped wave s.e. of DFW, tropical energy on low simmer in western Gulf. 500 mb low (529) developing slowly in larger upper trof n/c mN. It's a waste of a great set up to have such a flabby upper low, but if that starts to develop at any faster rate than the majority of guidance assumes, look out. It is the weak point, all the necessary surface ingredients are in place. I think it's like a 1 in 20 chance for significant development (n of 37N) and a 1 in 10 for last- minute partial development increasing snow potential from 0-2" to 2-5".

Final scoring for Feb 2025 based on end of month anomalies posted above ... raw scores for PHX ranged 00-23, so applying a fair range for max 60 rule, range was 20 to 60 in eleven steps (several ties intervened and last 4 steps also boosted +4 to keep pace w/differentials). These scores have ^ designations. FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTAL Roger Smith ________________86 _ 90 _ 88 __ 264 __ 98 _ 38 _ 92 __228 _492 _ 60 _ 44^_ 78 __ 182 ___ 674 RodneyS ___________________94 _ 66 _ 62 __ 222 __ 64 _ 68 _ 92 __224 _ 446 _ 46 _ 60^_ 82 __ 188 ___ 634 RJay _______________________ 80 _ 84 _ 78 __ 242 __ 68 _ 78 _ 78 __ 224 _ 466 _ 46 _ 24^_ 78 __ 148 ___ 614 wxallannj ___________________84 _ 56 _ 62 __ 202 __ 76 _ 54 _ 84 __ 214 _ 416 _ 76 _ 44^_ 64 __ 184 ___ 600 ___ Consensus ____________86 _ 54 _ 54 __ 194 __ 58 _ 70 _ 92 __ 220 _ 414 _ 54 _ 44^_ 76 __ 174 ___ 588 wxdude64 _________________90 _ 72 _ 74 __ 236 __ 58 _ 60 _ 74 __ 192 _ 428 _ 56 _ 32^_ 52 __ 140 ___ 568 BKViking __________________ 58 _ 38 _ 38 __ 134 __ 86 _ 78 _ 76 __240 _ 374 _ 90 _ 20^_ 72 __ 182 ___ 556 Scotty Lightning ___________100 _64 _ 68 __ 232 __ 58 _ 38 _ 72 __ 168 _ 400 _ 50 _ 52^_ 28 __ 130 ___ 530 ___ Normal _________________ 80 _ 84 _ 78 __ 242 __ 68 _ 18 _ 52 __ 138 _ 380 _ 70 _ 24^_ 28 __ 122 ___ 502 Tom ________________________98 _ 54 _ 48 __ 200 __ 34 _ 40 _ 68 __142 _ 342 _ 60 _ 44^_ 50 __ 154 ___ 496 so_whats_happening ______ 64 _ 32 _ 30 __ 126 __ 10 _ 98 _ 52 __160 _ 286 _ 48 _ 60^_ 92 __ 200 ___ 486 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 68 _ 46 _ 36 __ 150 __ 24 _ 70 _ 92 __186 _ 336 _ 38 _ 28^ _ 46 __ 112 ___ 448 DonSutherland1 ___________ 56 _ 24 _ 28 __ 108 __ 18 _ 78 _ 58 __ 154 _ 262 _ 34 _ 36^_ 82 __ 152 ___ 414 StormchaserChuck _______ 40 _ 06 _ 14 __ 060 __ 12 _ 66 _ 44 __ 122 _ 182 _ 52 _ 52^ _ 78 __ 182 ___ 364 ---- ---- Persistence __ (Jan 2025) __14 _ 66 _ 100 __ 180 __ 80 _ 00 _ 00 __ 080 _ 260 _ 12 _ 00 _ 98 __ 110 ___ 370 EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT NYC, BOS, ORD were wins for coldest forecasts (RSx3) DEN (-1.5) was a win for BKViking (-1.0) and a loss for RS (-3.5) PHX (+6.1) was a win for warmest forecasts (swh, RodneyS at +1.7) DCA, ATL, IAH , DEN, SEA did not qualify. ========================================================= (forecasts) FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA StormchaserChuck ________+4.0 _ +3.9 _ +3.2 __ +2.8 _ +5.8 _+5.2 __ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ -4.7 DonSutherland1 ___________ +3.2 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +5.2 _+4.5 __ +1.8 _ +0.5 _ -4.5 BKViking __________________ +3.1 _ +2.3 _ +2.0 ___ -0.9 _ +3.0 _ +1.2 __ -1.0 _ -0.1 __ -2.2 so_whats_happening ______+2.8 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___ +2.9 _+4.2 _ +4.8 __ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ -3.2 hudsonvalley21 ____________+2.6 _ +1.9 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.6 _ +2.0 __ +1.6 _ +0.2 _-0.9 wxallannj __________________ +1.8 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ___ -0.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 __ -0.3 _ +0.7 _ -1.8 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___+0.5 _ +2.6 _+2.0 __+0.8_ +0.7 _-2.4 wxdude64 _________________ +1.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ___+0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ -1.2 RodneyS ___________________+1.3 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 __ +0.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ -4.5 Tom _______________________ +1.1 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.7 _ +1.1 __ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ -1.1 Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith _______________ +0.3 _ -0.3 _ -0.5 ___ -1.7 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ -3.5 _ +0.7 _ -2.5 RJay ________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 ___ +1.2 __0.0 _ -2.5 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Persistence __ (Jan 2025) __ -3.3 _ -2.5 _ -1.1 _____ -2.6 _ -4.1 _ -4.4 ___ -5.9 _ -1.2 _ -3.7 ============================= [] =============================

Anomalies and projections after 15 and 22 days ... ____________________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ (anom 1-15) ___________+1.6 _ -1.0 _ -2.1 ___ +0.6 _ +9.6 _ +10.8 __ -0.9 _ +5.9 _ -9.5 ___ (anom 1-22) ___________-1.0 _ -3.2 _ -3.5 ___ -4.8 _ +3.4 _ +2.8 ___ -5.1 _ +5.3 _ -5.7 16 (p anom 1-28) __________-1.5 _ -3.0 _ -3.5 ___ -3.0 _ +4.0 _ +5.0 ___ -0.5 _ +3.0 _ -6.0 23 (p anom 1-28) __________+0.5 _ -2.0 _ -2.5 __ -3.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.5 ___ -0.5 _ +4.0 _ -3.5 final anomalies _____________+1.0 _ -0.8 _ -1.1 ___ -1.6 _ +4.1 _ +2.4 ____ -1.5 _ +6.1 _ -3.6 (Feb 16) _Very cold for next week in eastern and central regions, more variable later. Staying warm in s.w. and cold in n.w. ... will post preliminary scoring for Feb later. DEN will likely fall to -4 but I expect it will recover most or all by Feb 28. (Feb 23) _ Rather warm to end Feb in all regions, will adjust projections and preliminary scoring. (end) _ Late surge of warm temps drove scoring up.

I posted earlier in thread downtown Toronto's recent snow depth record was 65 cm Jan 15, 1999 after three significant snowfalls in two weeks. That is same as today's value as reported above. I also mentioned Feb 1846 with indications of 30-35 in on ground from approx 40" of snow in eleven days Feb 11-21. There were no snow depth records kept back then.

Surface winds are draining cold air under an inversion at around 3,000' above sea level. Variable winds will likely continue to around noon or early afternoon. NYC is in a sort of dead zone between a leading wave now over NE and the primary low in eastern Ohio. By early afternoon the primary will be near Albany and a coastal low will develop over NYC so I would expect 55-60 F air in warm sector to reach central NJ and fog-laden 47 to 50 F saturated air mass trapped between two fronts over lower hudson valley and LI, NYC, expect a thunderstorm or two in the region followed by partial clearing and strong westerly winds by 3 p.m. -- temps will then fall rapidly.