Roger Smith

Where 2025 stands against the heavy hitters ... all years currently ahead of 2025 for one or both 70+ and 80+ (NYC) as max so far is only 66F. Counting maxima of 67 to 69 as being ahead also, 2025 is right now tied with five other years for 90th place out of 157. Ranked by frequency of 80+, and to break ties, frequency of 70+ (1998 oddly had only 80+ and no 70-79 max) Ties within 70+ are broken by max and if that doesn't break tie, listed in earliest to latest chronological order. The frequency of 70+ includes 80+ (so for example 1945 had 4 in 70s and 3 in 80s) ... Rank _MARCH of YEAR ______ 70+ ___ 80+ ___ max ____ rank if 70+ determines _01 __ 1998 ____________________5 _____ 5 _____ 86 ______4 _02 __ 1945 ____________________7 _____ 3 _____ 86 ______2 _03 __ 1990 ___________________ 4 _____ 2 _____ 85 ______7 _04 __ 1921 ____________________4 _____ 2 _____ 84 _____ 8 _05 __ 1989 ____________________4 _____ 1 _____ 82 _____ 9 _06 __ 1985 ____________________3 _____ 1 _____ 82 ______12 _07 __ 2021 ____________________2 _____ 1 _____ 82 _____ 23 _08 __ 1977 ____________________4 _____ 1 _____ 81 ______ 10 _09 __ 2012 ____________________8 _____ 0 _____ 78 ______ 1 _10 __ 1946 ____________________ 6 _____ 0 _____ 79 ______ 3 _11 ___2016 ____________________ 5 _____ 0 _____ 79 ______ 5 _12 __ 1986 ____________________ 5 _____ 0 _____ 78 ______ 6 _13 __ 1987 ____________________ 4 _____ 0 _____ 76 ______ 11 _14 __ 1962 ____________________3 _____ 0 _____ 79 ______ 13 _15 ___1910 ____________________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 78 ______ 14 t16 __ 1913,38,2020 ___________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 77 ______t15 _19 __ 1979 ____________________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 76 _____ 18 _20 ___1949 ____________________3 _____ 0 _____ 75 _____ 19 t21 __ 1948, 2022 _____________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 74 _____ t20 _23 __ 1905 ____________________3 _____ 0 _____ 73 _____ 22 _24 __ 1963 ____________________2 _____ 0 _____ 79 _____ all same rank from this point down _25 __ 2007 ___________________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 78 t26 __ 1929,81,91 ______________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 77 t29 __ 1922,88 _________________2 _____ 0 _____ 76 t31 __ 1964, 2019 ______________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 75 t33 __ 1907,99, 2006,10,24 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 74 t38 __ 1939,61,72 ______________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 73 t41 __ 1976,95 __________________2 _____ 0 _____ 72 _43 ___1920 ____________________2 _____ 0 _____ 71 t44 ___1935, 2011 ______________ 1 _____ 0 _____ 77 t46 __ 1918,23,68 ______________ 1 _____ 0 _____ 76 _49 __ 1914 _____________________1 _____ 0 _____ 73 t50 __ 1880, 1908,43,67, 2002 _ 1 _____ 0 _____ 72 t55 __ 1890, 1925,34,55,59,94,2000 _1 _____ 0 _____ 71 t62 __ 1903,36,60,69,74,2004,09,17 _ 1 _____ 0 _____ 70 t70 __ 1878,79,97, 1919,27,28 _______1942,57,71, 2003 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 69 t80 __ 1912,54,83,93,97 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 68 t85 __ 1894, 1902,26,50,53,66 __ 0 _____ 0 _____ 67 t90 __ 1876,1924,26,73,2014,25 _ 0 _____ 0 _____ 66

Above (meaning previously on page two) see scoring for March 2025 and eventually annual scoring update. Further back in Feb portion of thread, snowfall contest details have been updated to March 24th. Below, post your April forecasts ... anyone new thinking of entering, see original post for details (Jan contest).

Post reserved for annual update

__ Preliminary scoring for March 2025 __ scores are based on latest posted end of March anomalies (prev post) FORECASTER ______________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west____TOTAL Maxim ______________________________ 74 _ 50 _ 56 __ 180 _ 20 _ 50 _ 70 __ 140 _ 320 _ 78 _ 96 _ 90 __264 ____ 584 StormchaserChuck1 ________________ 94 _ 70 _ 74 __ 238 _ 40 _ 70 _ 96 __ 206 _ 444 _84 _ 62 _ 56 __202 ____ 646 so_whats_happening _______________ 90 _ 82 _ 74 __ 246 _ 84 _ 76 _ 98 __ 258 _ 504 _ 10 _ 34 _ 78 __ 122 ____ 626 RJay ________________________________ 60 _100 _ 90 __ 250 _ 70 _100 _ 80 __ 250 _ 500 _ 00 _ 70 _ 50__ 120 ____ 620 wxallannj ___________________________ 60 _ 90 _ 70 __ 220 _ 100 _ 90 _ 70 __ 260 _ 480 _ 40 _ 76 _ 90 __206 ____ 686 Tom ________________________________ 56 _ 94 _ 92 __ 242 _ 64 _ 98 _ 84 __ 246 _ 488 _ 82 _ 84 _ 72 __ 238 ____ 726 hudsonvalley21 _____________________ 46 _ 82 _ 96 __ 224 _ 78 _ 88 _ 90 __ 256 _ 480 _ 56 _ 84 _ 98 __ 238 ____ 718 ___ Consensus ____________________ 46 _ 82 _ 76 __ 204 _ 78 _ 98 _ 80 __ 256 _ 460 _ 40 _ 94 _ 90 __ 228 ____ 688 BKViking ____________________________40 _ 82 _ 76 __ 198 _ 70 _ 96 _ 82 __ 248 _ 446 _ 44 _ 94 _ 90 __ 228 ____ 674 DonSutherland1 _____________________40 _ 68 _ 58 __ 166 _ 92 _ 80 _ 84 __ 256 _ 422 _ 68 _ 90 _ 96 __ 254 ____ 676 Scotty Lightning ____________________ 20 _ 60 _ 40 __ 120 _ 30 _ 70 _ 60 __ 160 _ 280 _ 30 _ 80 _ 90 __ 200 ____ 480 wxdude64 __________________________ 12 _ 48 _ 26 __ 086 _ 36 _ 78 _ 64 __ 178 _ 264 _ 36 _ 92 _ 96 __ 224 ____ 488 RodneyS ____________________________ 08 _ 54 _ 42 __ 104 _ 42 _ 32 _ 62 __ 136 _ 240 _ 30 _ 84 _ 94 __ 208 ____ 448 ___ Normal ___________________________00 _ 40 _ 30 __ 070 _ 20 _ 40 _ 20 __ 080 _ 150 _ 20 _ 90 _ 90 __ 200 ____ 350 Roger Smith _________________________ 00 _ 14 _ 26 __ 040 _ 00 _ 60 _ 70 __ 130 _ 170 __ 00 _ 70 _ 84 __ 154 ____ 324 ___ Persistence __ (Feb 2025) _______ 20 _ 24 _ 08 __ 052 _ 00 _ 78 _ 68 __ 146 _ 198 __ 00 _ 00 _ 38 __ 038 ____ 236 ================= [] =================== Extreme Forecast Report DCA and DEN _ Warmest forecast (Maxim) now in "loss" position as second warmest (StormchaserChuck1) is high score. rest of locations presently do not qualify.

Anpmalies and projections: _______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ (projected final) ____ +5.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 ___ +4.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.0 ___+4.0 _ +0.5 _ -0.5 Snowfall contest was updated back in Feb section.

I took Don's list of snowfalls after today's date, and added cases down to 3", to find out how many followed significant early spring (late winter) warmth ... 50-50 as it appears ... TOP SNOWFALLS after March 20 ___ MAX TEMP BEFORE SNOWFALL EVENT (starting Feb 1, Jan cases noted) ______________________________________ for April events, also listed Max to Mar 31 if lower 1. 11.8", March 20-21, 1958 __________ 57 Mar 11 2. 10.2", April 3-4, 1915 _____________ 59 Mar 25 3. 10.0", April 12-14, 1875 ___________ 66 Apr 11 (60 Mar 30) 4. 9.6", April 6, 1982 ________________ 65 Apr 1 (60 Mar 30) 5. 9.0", March 22, 1967 _____________ 72 Mar 11 6. 8.5", April 1, 1924 _________________66 Mar 30 7. 8.4", March 21-22, 2018 __________ 78 Feb 21 ___ 11. Apr 2, 2018 8t. 6.5", April 8-9, 1917 ______________83 Apr 1 8t. 6.5" April 5, 1944 ________________62 Mar 25 (also Jan 27) 10. 6.4", April 6-7, 1938 ______________77 Mar 22 11. 5.5", Apr 2, 2018 ___ see 7. above 12t. 5.0", April 9, 1905 _______________73 Mar 28, 29 12t. 5.0", Mar 22, 1998 ______________ 58 Feb 26, 27 (65 Jan 8) 14t. 4.5", Mar 30, 1883 ______________ 60 (Mar 2, 18) 14t. 4.5", Mar 23-24, 1896 ___________ 57 Feb 6 ____ also 3.0" Apr 6-7 16. 4.2", April 8, 1956 ________________ 66 Apr 5 (63 Mar 5) 17. 4.1", Mar 28-29, 1996 _____________ 63 Mar 14 18t. 4.0", Mar 29, 1970 _______________ 57 Feb 22 18t. 4.0", Apr 7, 2003 ________________ 69 Mar 17, 29 20. 3.6" Mar 30-Apr 1 1890 __________ 71 Mar 12 21. 3.3", Mar 28-29, 1984 ____________ 63 Feb 24 22. 3.2", Mar 22, 1992 _______________ 64 Feb 23, Mar 9 23t. 3.0", Apr 25, 1875 ___ see 3 above 23t. 3.0", Apr 18, 1887 _______________ 79 Apr 10 (63 Feb 11) ============================= (25 cases in all, 22 different years, so 1 in 7 freq for 3.0" snowfalls after today's date

A bit late but Tuesday (18th) marked the 100th anniversary of the tri-state tornado (1925).

84F at STL today, still feel 80 is possible in parts of region Wed. Can see some sea breeze potential to early afternoon (and all day east of Bay).

With the SW wind it probably will soar towards 80F in places.

I am seeing 85-90 potential next week. This weekend closer to 75 F with more cloud and a bit of an east wind component, but the mid-week second warmup looks more direct with a southwesterly flow. What's the earliest 90F at various local stations? Extreme warmth in early spring is often correlated with below normal temperatures in late spring and early summer. For example in 1945 it was warmer from mid-March to mid-April than it was from mid-May to mid-June in a lot of places in the northeastern states and Ontario.

You guys will hit 85-90F next week the way things are looking. Even so, it could in theory snow in April after some warmth in March. I believe it snowed in Apr 1938 after very warm readings in March.

I posted info about 2d 6.0" snowfalls in those intervals, the 1949-56 interval ends in Jan 1954 for 2d snow (9th-10th), and the 1917-1921 interval ends in Feb 1920, the other intervals all appear to survive intact (no interior 2d 6.0" totals), albeit some very close to 6.0" values. The post on this was back around midnite.

I had a look at daily snowfall data to check for 2d totals of 6.0" and found following facts, generally speaking the list is almost intact for absence of 2d 6.0" totals, with one significant exception (1917 to 1921 ended as Don already mentioned with a 3-day total of 17" of snow in Feb 1920). 1949-56 was also reduced to 1949-54. Details follow ... 1949 03-01 to 1956 03-15 ... 5.8" Jan 28 (5.5") -29 (0.3") 1952 was closest to invalidating for 2d 6", no other 2d snowfalls exceeded 5" until Jan 10-11 1954 (7.8") broke the streak for 2d at 1409 days (03-01-1949 also removed for being tail end of a 2d 9.8"). ... in third place in revised 2d list. 1996 02-17 to 2000 12-29 ... 5.5" Jan 25 2000, and 5.0" mar 22 1998, were one-day events and no 2d 6.0" snowfalls intervened. As there was snow on 1996 02-17, interval is shortened by one day. This (1996 02-18 to 2000 12-29) became longest interval with no 2d 6.0" events at 1777 days. 1987 01-23 to 1990 12-27 ... 5.8" Jan 3-4 1988 was largest 2d fall so, taking away one day (1990 12-27) this interval stays at 1434 days in second place for absence of 2d 6.0". 1929 02-22 to 1932 12-16 ... 3.9" Dec 23-24 1930 was largest 2d fall so entire interval was also devoid of any 2d 6.0" falls, at 1394 days, it is fourth longest. 1917 12-14 to 1921 02-19 ... 5.9" Jan 22 1918 narrowly avoided taking 38 days off this interval, but 5.7" Feb 3, 5.9" Feb 4 and 5.4 " Feb 5 1920 were well over 6" for 2d and as it had snowed on 1917-12-14 the revised interval dropped to 1917 12-15 to 1920 02-02, for only 780 days. 1971 01-02 to 1974 02-07 ... 5.7" Feb 19 1972 and 5.9" Jan 9-10 1974 failed to reduce this interval which stays at 1133 days (fifth place now tied with 2022-25). The present interval starting 2022 01-30 to 2025 03-07 is devoid of any 2d intervals greater than 4". Thus only one of the 6.0" avoidance spells drops out ahead of the present one, if we take two day totals as criterion (the 1917-21 interval). Only one other (1949-56 >> 1949-54) was significantly shortened, while remaining ahead of 2022-25. Looking at the other three intervals already passed, 1885-1888 had no 2d falls greater than 6.0" in winters of 1885-86 and 1886-87 or Jan-Feb 1888. 1983-1986 interval was shortened by 6.9" falling mar 8-9, 1984. 1975-1978 is also intact despite close call in Jan 1977.

That's the tariffs coming into effect. Expect some 120 degree highs in July also.

I gave a break on late penalties in Feb (to RJay and so_whats_happening), and I'll do the same for you two as you posted in a similar time frame. Let's say every regular forecaster can expect a break once during the contest year, with second late appearances being penalized as per lenient rules we have. I only impose 1% per half day to 3rd then it would start to increase (after 18z 3rd) to 1% per hour. All scoring for Feb complete, added Four Seasons winter rankings to previous post today (2nd). Table of forecasts will follow as I think all regular entrants are in now. __ Table of forecasts for March 2025 __ FORECASTER ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Maxim ______________________________ +6.3 _+5.5 _+5.7 __ +8.0 _+5.5 _ +5.5 ___ +5.1 _+0.7 _-1.0 StormchaserChuck1 ________________ +4.7 _+4.5 _+4.8 __ +7.0 _+4.5 _ +3.8 ___ +3.2 _+2.4 _-2.7 so_whats_happening _______________ +4.5 _+3.9 _+2.2 __ +4.8 _+4.2 _ +4.1 ___ -0.5 _ -2.8 _ -1.6 RJay ________________________________ +3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 __ +2.5 _+3.0 _ +3.0 ___ -3.0 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 wxallannj ___________________________ +3.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 __ +4.0 _+2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +1.0 _ -0.7 _ -1.0 Tom ________________________________ +2.8 _+2.7 _+3.1 ___ +5.8 _+2.9 _ +4.8 ___ +3.1 _ +1.3 _ -1.9 hudsonvalley21 _____________________ +2.3 _+2.1 _+3.3 ___ +2.9 _+3.6 _ +3.5 ___ +1.8 _ -0.3 _-0.6 ___ Consensus _____________________+2.3 _+2.1 _+2.3 ___+2.9 _+2.9 _ +3.0 ___+1.0 _+0.2 _-1.0 BKViking ____________________________ +2.0 _+2.1 _+2.3 ___ +2.5 _+3.2 _+3.0 ___ +1.2 _+0.2 _-1.0 DonSutherland1 _____________________ +2.0 _+1.4 _+1.4 ___ +3.6 _+2.0 _ +3.2 ___ +2.4 _+1.0 _-0.3 Scotty Lightning _____________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ 0.0 wxdude64 ___________________________+0.6 _+0.4 _-0.2 ___ +0.8 _+1.9 _+2.2 ___ +0.8 _+0.9 _-0.7 RodneyS _____________________________+0.4 _+0.7 _+0.6 ___ +1.1 _ -0.4 _ +2.1 ___ +0.5 _-0.3 _ -0.2 ___ Normal ____________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith _________________________ -1.5 _ -1.3 _ -0.2 ___ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 ___ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ +0.3 ___ Persistence __ (Feb 2025) _______ +1.0 _ -0.8 _ -1.1 ___ -1.6 _ +4.1 _ +2.4 ___ -1.5 _ +6.1 _ -3.6 ================= [] =================== Warmest and coldest forecasts color coded (Persistence not incl) ... Normal is colder for IAH.