
wxsniss
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Everything posted by wxsniss
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Agree, that's been the fly in the guidance ointment for days... both from perspective of low placement and conveyor mechanics. See the 21z HRRR... it exemplifies that eastern low refusing to decay and shifting dynamics east faster. I think there's good reason to be skeptical of that with the intense vorticity over KY/WV and results on the ground, and the weaker-than-progged pressure/wind obs of our culprit off NC.
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That 21z HRRR run looks strange... the eastern low, which materializes 4z-5z out of not much, refuses to fade the entire run, and so dynamics at our latitude shunt east faster than earlier runs. Stranger things happen, but I'd think the vorticity over KY/WV (apparently with results on the ground) will be the main driver of SLP development.
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We've been calling for the NW trend and a GFS cave for days now, despite skepticism. The OTS tracks simply did not make sense with the position/strength of vorticity and trough. Never wavered from 3-6/4-8 since weekend, and there is still potential for more as I think that lead convection is still mucking up the low positioning and best conveyor mechanics on guidance.