wxsniss
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Everything posted by wxsniss
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EPS have > 15 members with 940s-960s near or just inside BM
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Wish we could lock it in! But confidence significantly increased for a big hit.
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As theorized earlier today... that was literally a jump of 200-300 miles west as a result of a better N-S stream interaction Great to see this on the Euro OP
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Yep, 30 spots are in reach eastern MA
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1-2 feet roughly ORH east, Cape Cod 20-30" Significantly builds confidence, lots of cross-guidance op and ens support It was a big shift at H5 (see my earlier post at hr 126, phasing over TN/KY) with drastic downstream impact:
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Could see the differences early... look at this stream interaction over KY/TN at 0z vs. 12z: 0z: 12z:
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And there it is... blizzard on Euro op
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This is gonna be a much better hit I think Through hr 126, already much better N-S stream interaction
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GFS, CMC, UK... Euro is the only one of the big models that has not shown a blizzard at some point. Yet.
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Pretty strong correlation in today's GFS runs, the hits (23 0z, 6z; 24 0z) vs. the ots (23 12z, 18z) tracks... if the southern stream energy does not get strung out, northern stream energy has a chance to interact and system amplifies close:
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key difference is southern stream energy is a bit faster, and earlier interaction with northern stream energy
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This is what the contemporary NFL wants. High scoring firework shootouts = more viewers. Bellichek’s defense-centric schemes seem outdated, not that they showed up last week.
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Incredible game Was rooting for Bills… Kelce Hill etc already were sure they were dynasty legends years ago. Josh Allen will be a star for years
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Oh Brady how we miss you Agree with ORH, this has the potential to snap back abruptly with just a touch more/earlier northern stream interaction
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Went through my household like a wrecking ball last week, despite 2 years of scrupulous caution. Was scary initially, but all recovering now. Perhaps an extremely contagious yet milder variant is a blessing in the long run. Hope your wife feels better quickly.
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Nah, the worries were sincere. I can understand why people are shook by recent phantom storms, but this is a different setup and I don't think we've had as good a signal as this at this leadtime so far this season. I actually prefer the grazer look at this point. In any case, great to have something to track.
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Agree And I only brought out the microscope to counter some premature (season-scarred?) worries last night. We have a ways to go for both subtle shifts in large scale features and how the shortwaves interact, favorable or not.
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For the detail-oriented... (and I don't think this kind of scrutiny this early is informative... so much will change in the next few days): 12z (green) vs. 0z EPS:
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What's not to like? Game is still on
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Someone earlier this season alluded to the Idaho peak of the ridge axis as a great setup for EC hit A lot of irrational panics about this last night. 6 days away. And I weigh Euro op maybe just a little more than just another ensemble member this far out. We're in a good spot.
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Definitely makes no difference at this point, but 0z is not east of 12z: Mean is nearly identical: And more members west of the drawn line at 0z:
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Very much alive at 6-7 days out... and more west members than 12z
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Agree, but we've seen trends like this reverse dramatically in shorter lead time. A touch more phase, axis of ridging out west... all very much in flux on guidance and days before we get better clarity.
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0z Euro trough digs too little too late, results in a scraper As much weight as another ensemble member this far out, especially given track record this season
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Ray and others alluded to this... there are definite resemblances... (this is not a forecast, tons of lead time, but this definitely has this level of potential):
