wxsniss
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Everything posted by wxsniss
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Terrible run and can't dismiss this 0z Euro is critical
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Thru 33hr GFS southern energy about the same, maybe a tic east Biggest difference is in trough, looks to dig better with northern stream
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The single takeaway from this run is that NAM is not yet reliable or informative for this system Euro/GFS/EPS blend until further notice
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hr 48 that runaway convection that was to Bermuda 18z is gone will 100% be better than 18z, but that's a low bar lol, so we'll see how this unfolds again, key message is 18z was an anomaly
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Yep hr33-39 can already see the shortwave tugging much better on the trough... if all the associations we've observed this week mean anything, this will definitely be a better hit
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Hr 33... southern shortwave more east... TPV more restrained... this should be a better run Main value is to reassure everyone that 18z NAM was an anomaly, not a trend
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Trend this on all the GFS runs today... slowly ticking more stout with every run Not sure if this is what ORH / CoastalWx are referring to, but it's definitely blunting the trough sharpness. A more robust northern energy and sooner interaction with southern energy can definitely overcome this negative, but something to watch.
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Trough and shortwaves actually looked more favorable... continued capture by 21z Saturday... but surface tic'ed east I actually thought surface should look better than depicted (same for 12z run) 18z NAM still tossed
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Thru 39h, 18z GFS looks like it will be better than 12z... southern energy dragging less, northern energy more robust, trough structure more favorable
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Same. A number of coworkers/friends/family counting on my forecasts. For now, we hold. Some are too quick to forget: 12z NAM 6 hrs ago was a huge hit. 12z Euro/GFS (more reliable than NAM at this range) were big hits for SNE. No overreactions and we wait at least until 0z for more clarity.
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Outer Cape barely reaches warning lol
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I mean this is flurries eastern SNE thru 03z Sunday... huge discontinuity from 6z and 12z runs, I would not over-react to this
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Big discontinuity on this 18z NAM... huge swing from 6z-12z-18z... wouldn't over-react to this
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Thru 54 Southern energy is dragging, entire trough looks a bit more progressive On the plus side, the northern energy looks more robust
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Yeah not liking 18z NAM thru 54... it may have a MVY run in the future, but this one definitely isn't it
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Thru 33h looks to hang back the southern energy more than 12z... probably more tame outcome than 12z
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Deform band likely a bit farther NW than depicted, northeast CT to northeast MA, though this is trucking along
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Trough axis at 72 actually looks slightly better... this will capture a tic east but still be a good solution, for sure much better than 12z GFS
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As others have said, thru 48 hanging back the southern energy (resembles 12z GFS in that regard), but northern energy is better... net may be a slightly later capture
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Awesome look for New England, and reflects the slightly later capture...
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Yeah I'm pretty confident the verbatim qpf maps are not west enough with deformation, UK being the most egregious
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Assuming duration, we will readily make blizzard criteria:
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Literally tracks directly north from BM between hr 90-96 as it gets captured
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Yep, as anticipated from that southern shortwave, a slightly later and more east capture vs. 12z Looks like it gets to BM, then crawls north just east of the elbow A (desired) tic east compared to 12z, and a great solution for much of New England
