wxsniss

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The thing about pulling over is you pretty much have to get out of your car.  I think if you can reach a rest area or any exit 30 minutes ahead of totality it can work.  Pulling over on 91 is a bit dicey especially with idiots who don’t pull over and look at and take pictures of the eclipse while driving 80 mph.

Yeah the at-worst plan is pull over on I-91 breakdown lane, sit on grass. I'm nervous even that option won't be possible if the breakdown lane is already a parking lot.

But hopefully 7 hours drive from Boston is enough to reach Newport and stage someplace more reasonable.

So happy you're doing New England instead of Eagle Pass! Unbelievable that NNE will be the best viewing in the country. A month ago I was bracing myself for a washout.

18z NAM as you wrote above looks great...

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

My biggest worry is finding parking wherever we end up.   If you remember Gallatin in 2017, outside of the immediate area of the park traffic was a breeze on the highways.

Am I being totally ridiculous thinking at absolute worst you could just pull over on I-91 (or whatever road you're on)? My thinking is just get to the destination in time (and I'm increasingly nervous of that leaving Boston 8am) and the rest is gravy...

I too remember the drive back to airport from Gallatin was surprisingly OK.

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

Our plan is to head to Newport, VT-hopefully far enough ne of the approaching high clouds.  But high cirrus shouldn’t really be that much of a damper so keep that in mind.  Euro cloud algorithm is all high clouds.

I linked a watch event at Newport, VT earlier in the thread... my plan is to leave Boston 8am, 93 to 91 to Newport. At the very least will stage on southbound 91 and just pull over on the interstate.

A bit nervous what cloud cover over pretty much the rest of the nation's path will do to crowd surge and driving on Monday, but I'm hoping 4 hours extra buffer will be enough for an ordinarily 3.5 hour drive.

12z Euro... note this is for 18z (2pm) and 21z (5pm)... ie. northeast VT, northern NH, all ME should be excellent:

6 minutes ago, CTSkywarn said:

Ok..... consensus......should I switch my hotel reservations in Rochester, NY and switch to Cornwall, Ontario? I have until midnight to cancel Rochester.....so the clock is ticking. Will the cloud cover be a lot less in Cornwall? I have to drive to Niagara Falls the next day.....so don't want to go any further east than that.

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19z NBM (blue/grey is cloud cover, white is clear with % cover shown):

Further northeast seems better at this point... Euro has the cloud cover a bit further northeast than the NBM and GFS/GEFS as wxeyeNH posted above. So if it's a no-cost decision between the 2 destinations, I'd go further northeast. But see what others here say... 

GFS/GEFS holding steady for VT/NH/ME

BTV:

As of 415 PM EDT Friday...Surface and upper level ridges remain
over the region for Monday, leading to pretty ideal viewing
conditions for the eclipse Monday afternoon. Some high clouds
will approach from the southwest, but at most some high clouds
around. Maximum temperatures will range through the 50s.

2 hours ago, CT Rain said:

You haven't been in totality then. 

It's like getting 99% instead of 100% of the numbers right on a lottery ticket. Those who haven't witnessed totality might extrapolate incrementally, but it's infinitely different. It's like the minute before or after, cool but no big deal.

2017 eclipse was easily one of the most amazing and freaky things I've ever seen. Not at all about money or hype... quite the contrary. You could be as in awe just standing in an open field, for free. Aside from the otherworldly sight, it's rare we get to witness with our own eyes just how small we really are.

"A partial eclipse is like a cool sunset. A total eclipse is like someone broke the sky."

Hat tip: https://xkcd.com/2914/

Similar sensation to 2011… almost like an undulating floor as if a heavy bouncing truck was driving by 

And the fun and typical experience for these parts: going from “what the hell was that” to seeing all the breaking reports

Wow felt that! 10:28ish

55 minutes ago, ariof said:

I think most people are, rightly or wrongly, going to a destination, not the side of the road. I mean people have booked rooms in totality for $1000, so I assume they have destinations chosen. (This is, of course, the wrong way to do it; it doesn't really matter where you are since you are looking at the sun; mountains nearby would be fun to be able to see them in the light when you're in the shadow, being on top of a mountain might let you watch the shadow as long as there's not any FG which is not a given this time of year. I would assume Mansfield will be mobbed, even with the trail conditions up there, which might actually be "microspikes".) In 2017 we wound up at random pullout near a lake in Southern Illinois. We got there about 45 minutes before totality and there were people parked along the road but no real traffic.

If the storm hits far enough north and there's nowhere to pull off it won't help, but traffic will mostly all be going in the same direction at least so if people pull off there won't be too much trouble pulling into the other lane. Somewhere like Willoughby Gap might be fun to watch the shadow cross the mountains (there will be a split second when one side is in light and the other side in darkness), I guess? But the whole thing is, for the most part, the cool stuff is going on up in the sky, so there's really no need to be in a cool place to view it, the sky is the same.

I will say based on my experience in Gallatin TN 2017 (crowd of thousands in large sports fields), hearing the wave of shrieks sweep across a crowd of thousands does add to the experience. If you can get to an event and have the time for a slow exit, it can be very memorable.

But yeah if not committing to an event: I'm hoping to pull over southbound I-91 or at least stage minutes from the highway. Hoping that won't be policed for the 3.5 minutes of totality and 30 min before, as I imagine many many will be doing the same.

11 minutes ago, Professional Lurker said:

Back by 8pm Monday night? Fingers crossed for you. Not sure that can happen tbh.

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Yeah I'm nervous about that too, but YOLO rules very much apply lol

I figure adding 1.5 hours to normal drive time would make it. Obviously will also fill up on gas and stage southbound before eclipse.

I was in Gallatin TN north of Nashville for 2017, easily one of the most breathtaking things I've ever seen... traffic heading back to airport wasn't that bad actually.

56 minutes ago, ariof said:

Yeah this seems pretty reasonable. There probably won't be traffic going north from Boston since people will be spread out over the morning, although I would be somewhat surprised if the Manchester-to-Concord section is not slammed. (A good time to go around on Dunbarton/Logging Hill.) 93 north should then be fine since it is a 3-to-4 split in Concord, but I'd watch the Notch where there could be quite a backup where it goes from 2 to 1. (Generally there's not an issue here even at the busiest times since enough hiking/skiing/leaf peeping people peel off further south.) If it's bad, go across 25 or Kinsman instead over to 91, which I doubt will be bad, and then you can meter off onto some random side roads into Vermont.

I'm looking at various areas which are high up and clear, to be able to see distant hills in the day while you stand in the night. That is an advantage of going for a hike up a mountain (the main disadvantage, of course, being that there's a much higher likelihood of FG. Some of the open fields up in, like, Irasburg would fit the bill quite well.

So helpful, really appreciate the local knowledge!

And great idea to look at sunny distant hills from within totality.

We'll be on a tight schedule to get back to Boston by 8pm, so I'm planning to stage on southbound direction (or just near an on-ramp) on I-91. And planning to just pull over on side of road (or even on southbound I-91) if necessary. I imagine I won't be the only one pulling over on the interstate.

On 3/30/2024 at 5:52 PM, weathafella said:

I was originally planning to go to TX but I decided to bank on a drive knowing I can make a last minute rebook if conditions dictate.  We are planning somewhere in the ROC-ERI corridor.  New eclipse glasses arrived today.

Good bet given guidance at this range Jerry... northeast looks like it actually has a chance sitting east of ridge. I'll be driving somewhere with my wife.

Any thoughts from anyone on this plan? I'm thinking Newport, VT... 3.5 hr drive during weekday rush hour, so we'll plan on a 6 hour drive up: Drive up 93N, onto 91N at St. Johnsbury. Stay on 91 and get car to southbound direction before eclipse and that way can immediately hit road after. At worst might even just pull over side of 91 southbound...

There is an actual organized event, but I imagine it'll be impossible to enter:

https://www.discovernewportvt.com/eclipse/

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/science/solar-eclipse-cloud-cover-forecast-map.html

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well, not here. Just an unreal porking. I just want to put this season behind me. As bad as last year was, this is worse locally when you look at how every area around me has done. I’m just tired of it.  As someone who uses this season as an outlet, I’m disgusted with it.

Hits the spot.

Winter and all its meteorological chases and thrills have been a reliable escape for folks here for as long as we can remember (for me, since moving here in 1993, so my expectations were warped from the start). The past 2 years? The only redeeming experience was a few hours after the CF passed through on Jan 7... first time my toddler witnessed heavy snow and he was absolutely ecstatic.

Here's how it would look if we do in fact sweep the rest of the season and don't hit 4" before mid Dec 2024... depressing:

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Classic. Short term busts have become rarer and rarer, but then when one happens, it’s because of CC. No shame at all. 

Pseudo-science. If the mayor is going to speak broadly for meteorologists, would be nice if she said something like:

"This was a more difficult forecast than usual, and meteorology can be an extremely challenging science. While forecasting has improved significantly, it still has imperfections. Also we are putting the horse down."

Interesting... she's a politician and not a scientist, but I'm sure the thought crossed people's minds here too... as with lots of things here, too microscopic a sample size to say anything conclusively (and not intending to start a whole CC debate here, just relaying a reaction while the puddles are still drying):

“I think it goes to show not only is our climate changing in general that we haven’t had a significant snowstorm now in more than two years, but also the predictability of the weather — every storm can change so quickly on its path, the projections, the amounts,” Wu said. 

https://www.boston.com/news/weather/2024/02/13/what-mayor-wu-had-to-say-about-bostons-snow-forecast-bust/?p1=hp_featurestack

Congrats to those in southeast MA right now!

Feels like most areas of southern/eastern SNE have had some seasonal redemption with this storm. Boston metro a notable exception. Not even a consolation inch for this "snow emergency".

The "what happened" headlines beginning, with several met thoughts here, many saying they would have made the same exact forecast given the data until Monday afternoon:

https://www.boston.com/weather/weather/2024/02/13/meteorologists-react-drastic-shift-mass-snow-forecast/?p1=hp_primary

Hyannis, pounding snow right at the water...

https://masswebcams.com/hyannis-harbor-webcam/

Yeah even in this 15z-21z window of best omega (inside 495 belt), there was never complete saturation ~700 and above

Changed over to mostly snow in Brookline, ok dendrites.

15z HRRR says we have maybe 2 hours to get a coat-1" lol

Unreal winters continue. We had ~4 hours of magic on Jan 7.

Maybe it's just me, but the disappointment stings even more when the lay public mocks the field/science (and hobby) of meteorology after such a forecasting debacle.

Box from earlier this morning, still expected snow even to Logan:

8:30 AM Update:

It is apparent that snow moved in faster than all models had
predicted this morning with portions of interior Connecticut
well overperforming compared to previous forecasts (several
reports of 7"+ have were received prior to 8 AM out of Hartford
County).

With temperatures above freezing in the Boston Metro area, we
have yet to see a change to snow in the city as well as along
the immediate coastline. Temperatures should cool over the next
couple of hours allowing precip to switch to snow even at the
airport in Winthrop, but delays in the changeover will impact
how much snow accumulates in the city. As for timing, a
changeover should occur by 16Z for any ares still experiencing
rain.

Dendrites are quite large with this system which will contribute
to some rapid accumulations. Some observers have reported inch
per hour rates over the last hour or two

Plain rain, 36/33 in Coolidge Corner

Best soundings in Boston metro were 15z-21z, and best radar returns of event so far are overhead, but not even flakes mixing in. Temps look like CF wrapped around city between 128-495. 

717 day record will hold.

Can’t believe snow emergency and region-wide school cancellations were called so early on Monday

Congrats to folks in CT

57 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Snowing in Hartford, visibility dropped fast. 

Radar looks really good to me personally, at least for MOST of CT to receive a minimum of 3-6".

Take it and run. 

Wife and I have been in labor and delivery room in Hartford since 11 am. 

A snow baby. What a gift for a weenie. 

Congrats!!!!

Agree radar looking better than the mesos had us thinking last evening