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wxsniss

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  1. wxsniss
    I have so little confidence in any forecast at the moment. The goalposts have drastic changes to forecast. 0z runs NAM-Euro-GFS just 12 hours ago were probably the best solutions in days for your area and a good chunk of eastern SNE... here's hoping we trend back to that later today. 3k NAM and GFS hint that it's still on the table. Not sure what to make of the 6z-Euro-12z RGEM running this so far inland with mostly rain for us. That's a pretty discontinuous jump, but not totally unrealistic.
  2. wxsniss
    Reasons to "curb your enthusiasm" are shrinking... You could see since last night that momentum was east, and models just struggled to sort out low consolidation until converging on tonight's consensus among EPS, Euro, CMC, UK. GFS the clear outlier. Verbatim, the B word is warranted.
  3. wxsniss
    18z Tues: 925mb winds: Surface:
  4. wxsniss
    For eSNE, BEST Euro solution yet!!!! Now a consolidated low by Tues 12z The dual low / disorganized solutions on guidance earlier today were steps in an evolution towards what we're now seeing on CMC / Euro... GFS is the clear outlier
  5. wxsniss
    Synoptically and at H5 thru 48h much more like CMC than GFS
  6. wxsniss
    Any experience/thoughts on how the potential counterclockwise backing-in would impact snowfall rates? Akin to surge impacted by approach of hurricanes, I'm guessing the west/southwest-ward approach (vs. the more typical northeast-ward approach) might enhance snowfall, but not sure if there's any truth to that.
  7. wxsniss
    Agree not sure where the need (?expectation) of precise numbers this far out. Should be perfectly acceptable to put a region-wide alert for potential of heavy snow + winds, stay tuned for detailed TBD. Unnecessarily setting themselves up for criticism.
  8. wxsniss
    I’d have more confidence northcentral CT up to ORH than depicted… that area pretty consistently hit
  9. wxsniss
    Agree this will likely change… unless anticipating further east all happens after 8pm Tuesday, and guidance has trended later with the further east captures
  10. wxsniss
    Actually fairly decent <100 mile consensus for low track, furthest NW tracks into SE SNE, most tracks seem to be around islands / elbow / east of the Cape Quick glance looks like 12z Euro only one with dual low / 12z UK with nipple, but otherwise NAM/GFS/CMC look consolidated Momentum seems to be east with a more dominating SRN shortwave that gets boosted but not stretched by infusion of NRN energy... for ESNE, good trend to see given that SRN shortwave was sampled this morning
  11. wxsniss
    Discussed this yesterday SRN stream vorticity getting better sampling this morning and if more robust expected a tic east Major power issues, 925mb winds:
  12. wxsniss
    For QPF mean, note this is 24hr so some far west QPF is cut off:
  13. wxsniss
    Contrast to 12z when most members went inland: 0z 90hr: 0z 96hr: Several 966 members in there.
  14. wxsniss
    Euro definitely could be wrong. But the trend towards a more eastern solution over 12z-18z-0z today makes me think improved sampling of NRN stream (which is now mostly over land) played a role. SRN stream I believe will be fully sampled over land Saturday, so we'll see how the 12z suite plays out tomorrow. IF SRN stream samples more robust, I think there's potential for more southeast tics. In any case, good to see the whiffs are completely off the table tonight.
  15. wxsniss
    After so many rug pulls this winter, it's hard to believe this is within 96 hours Still a relatively fragile setup but great to see some consensus emerge tonight. I would not be shocked to see this trend a bit further southeast if sampling of the southern stream Saturday proves it to be more stout
  16. wxsniss
    Would be widespread power issues 925mb winds at 90hr:
  17. wxsniss
    hours 90-96 absolutely crushed in much of SNE low grazes Cape, captures at elbow for eastern folks, exactly what we wanted to see at 0z... all the big leagues Euro, GFS, CMC with a widespread big hit, and Euro arguably the best of them
  18. wxsniss
    early trend was ridge out west slightly more stout along Tip's x-axis Tues blizzard in much of SNE
  19. wxsniss
    Had to dig back pages to clarify that lol Just looked at 0z NAM... that would be aiming for history. 4/97 ULL emerged off Delaware.
  20. wxsniss
    Away all day, so much to catch up. One quick very favorable impression from 18z/0z runs... love that the ULL is now closing completely south of SNE on every single piece of guidance. That was not the case earlier today.
  21. wxsniss
    Top image 3/31/97 12z, Bottom image 4/1/97 3z ULL dug much further south and ultimately stacking occurred further south As much as I revere that event, it's not totally outlandish that this could have some similarities
  22. wxsniss
    Yeah Boston area risks a flip mid-day Tuesday going by 925s Looks like all snow and huge hit somewhere between 128-495 out to central MA, down to CT, up to southern NH For eastern SNE, we want a few ticks further southeast for more buffer... 4/97 center never got north of islands
  23. wxsniss
    Not true, verbatim minor qpf at the beginning, minor qpf after it's occluded and drifting away... Otherwise for the meat of the heaviest rates, 925 temps on up will dictate and that's heavy snow. Tuesday mid-day might be close. I'd want a tick southeast for a bit more buffer in Boston metro.
  24. wxsniss
    better ridge axis over Montana + southern stream more amped and ticked east + northern stream digs more there's almost a fujiwara interaction between the 2 streams before prolonged closure of ULL over Boston harbor
  25. wxsniss
    In addition to track, another reason we want the south stream to shoot further east + later capture
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