wxsniss

For this season, we're not used to seeing such concordance and stability of guidance at 96 hours. Really only GGEM / UK are off but slowly coming around. And decent buffer for pike region up to NH.

Nice to see relative stability for once this winter... Euro is now 24 hours of runs showing 6-12+ for SNE Factors favoring positive busts include better fronto pressed against the cold, and maybe a bit more / earlier NS infusion especially for areas further north like MA/NH border into CNE (though that interaction could also keep the SS more disjointed as in yesterday GGEM runs) Factors favoring tempering expectations include exit speed of system and warm surface temps at least at first few hours in coastal areas

Ensembles a hair southeast as well, good place to sit for SNE at this point There's almost 3 apparent clusters... not surprisingly with the cluster near the BM having the deepest systems

Yeah this evening's trends of greater confluence continues Just a hint of what Will described of the GGEM... an "almost phase" interaction with NS, but fortunately does not shear it out like GGEM and still have a very potent system... 6-12" towards seasonal redemption across much of SNE SoP. Still a ways to go...

0z Euro starts redemption for SNE on 13-14th vs. 12z Euro run: southern stream came in faster and better interaction with northern stream Still feels like wildly varying solutions but overall improving signal The 17-21th timeframe looks promising

Select "Seasonal Ranking", Variable = "Snowfall", and Output check Graph

Yeah that does stand out. I'm no climate scientist, but my lay impression is this is way too small a sampling to make any conclusions on changing climate in SNE. At least based on seasonal snowfall totals alone. I've seen the increased volatility of past 30 years attributed to a changing climate, but 100 years is a blip in time. Here's a pretty tight correlation in that timeframe: Kraft ownership of Pats ---> seizure activity of seasonal snowfall totals in SNE

For any newcomers looking for great summaries of climate data including monthly / seasonal snowfall: http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Quick eyeball: 1957-58 had one of the best turnaround of snowfalls for KBOS: 6.7" Nov-Jan, then 38" Feb-April. I'm curious what teleconnectors were at play in the switch if anyone knows. Also, not a formal statistical analysis, but the most prominent trend is just all the higher maxima beginning 1992-93 (incidentally, the year I arrived in Boston, skewing my expectations forever ): Seasonal snowfall for KBOS:

Almost exactly 2 years ago... Not sure whether the string of ratters for eastern SNE truly represents changing climate or about the AGW attribution, and I dug up the above as a reminder (to myself lol) that classic blockbuster KUs do still happen, and recently. I've sat out this upcoming storm... busy week + I refuse to dignify what will likely be 1-3" glop in MBY with piecemeal dynamics + garbage soundings + a warm BL. This system reminds me a bit of the 1/7/24 system waiting for a CCB to cool our BL, except that prior system had a more robust CCB and colder 925-850s. And when the CF moved through, we had 4 hours of magic. Not expecting that Monday. Still keeping hope Feb/Mar can salvage what has been a brutal season for Boston metro area.

Just starting to look at this in more depth, but to your point, interesting to see variance on 12z EPS in low depths hinting at the very different ceiling with a "subsume" setup: Jan 17 range is generally 980s-990s Jan 19-20 have a few members as low as 950s-960s

Wasn't able to post all day. Some thoughts: Definite disappointment overnight, and one of my worst forecasts for Boston metro (waivered 4-8 vs. 6-10, and though I had posted "not totally enthusiastic about these BL temps" after the Sat 0z NAM, I muted those concerns and rode the 36-48h Euro/NAM/GFS and went 6-10). Embarrassing when those who asked for my forecast woke up to rain and wet roads. We ended up ~4" in Coolidge Corner. I was confident ORH hills to NEMA would hit double digits. If you look at final totals map... NWS (and @40/70 Benchmark's map) were extremely good forecasts, but the Boston metro was a discontinuity as if a bite was taken out of the 6-8/8-12 contours. Nothing about the precarious shortwave interactions or storm track or anything really complex... the BL temps were simply too warm and failed to cool with good rates in the overnight hours (you'll recall the 18z NAM Friday night had us wetbulbing to 32-33 by 4am, and Box AFD even mentioned that as rationale for increasing amounts... we easily would have had >6" if that materialized). In any case, any frustrations were instantly forgotten once CF passed through ~12pm-5pm. Definite period of >1" / hr rates, huge flakes. Felt like our winter mojo was back. And my toddler excitedly announced to strangers in the grocery store that it was snowing, and got to build his Olaf, so all was good.

I just use Wundermap and drew my own line: https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

I saw that as well, hope the trend continues. 6z NAM soundings warmed a tic from 0z at surface holds at 34-35 until ~20z Current location of CF at MA-NH border, though we have a ways before this collapses:

Nice (I'm jealous of all these amazing reports with barely a coating here) 6z NAM big hit for your area northeast MA / southern NH / eastern ME CCB with colder BLs has to salvage accumulations for Boston metro, otherwise we struggle to reach the 6"+ calls (NWS still has 6-8"/8-12", I was expecting 6-10") Below is just 12h 10:1 from 12z Sun-0z Mon:

White rain / snow mix, coating in Brookline 6z HRRR continues a strong commahead finish for ESNE BLs temps have been a struggle so far and will be pivotal to reach 6"+ in Boston metro. 0z NAM sounding for KBOS is promising we wetbulb to 32F by 9z vs 6z HRRR has KBOS 36-37 until 20z

Sorry if posted earlier... add to the meso side HREF continues bullish 0z-12z Sun: 12z Sun - 0z Mon:

And as is, NWS map still more bullish than yours for Boston metro. Except for RGEM and CMC, all reliable guidance yesterday was trending colder and more robust CCB. Remember 18z and 0z NAM soundings last night. Your forecast was solid until 12z today. I debated 4-8 vs 6-10, and went 6-10 with last nights guidance. And I dismiss any AWTs… it was a precarious setup, but there were also favorable large scale synoptics that most here bought. These experiences reinforce not releasing a final forecast until hours before. Anyway, these are silly postmortem thoughts before we’ve even started. Should still be the best event my area has seen in years.

Great runs for southern VT / MA/NH border / southeast ME... For SNE, snow maps may look decent but point of capture of surface low keeps ticking north, warmer at surface and 925s, and closer dryslot in morning... both NAM/GFS warmer compared to 0z last night, not good for the higher totals in SNE... I'm hoping these trends reverse a little

18z HRRR still very warm at surface though, it's 33-36 for much of ESNE until ~20z 0z NAM thermals is what we want... it's as if all guidance warmed as soon as Pope posted this morning... I'm hoping we cool back in the 18z suite starting with NAM

Just looked, tbh I wasn’t totally enthused with soundings on 12z NAM for eastern SNE Kbos a tic warmer to 34-36 compared to 32-33 last night through most of event, and the best lift is often below DGZ The snowfall maps look great but verbatim on that run we’ll be really dependent on rates and robust CCB for the higher amounts

Our discussions here tonight identifying colder trends particularly for east SNE are mirroring NWS latest thoughts:

Excellent writeup and forecast. Agree with your bumping up Boston metro from 4-8 to 5-10 given almost all guidance (CMC is outlier). I won't be shocked to see 12-14 spots in eastern face of Worcester hills to 495 to NE Mass. Let's hope there won't be too much if any melting lull between overnight WAA and late morning-afternoon CCB. And no complaints if HREF scores a coup.

No drastic changes... a more southeast track and colder thermals throughout, giving a better run for ESNE/coastal CT / RI... colder and wetter 10:1, 12z left, 0z right: