MoWeatherguy

-17 in Bella Vista this morning.   Coldest temp I've ever experienced that I can recall. 

14 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

New NAM 12km model rolling in...system looks to be a little stronger but neutral to a slight positive tilt. Higher totals for S KS. 

Curious what the SLR's might be on this next system. 

18 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Looks like the dreaded dry slot is taking shape sooner after all.

Yep, those radar returns are drying up pretty quickly. 

13 minutes ago, MUWX said:

The main band starting to move into Joplin is starting to become very well defined. From Joplin to Norman and points SE from there, there is a ton of snow on radar. Motion of that snow is to the NE, with the western edge of the snow appearing to be crawling east with time. I don't see how this doesn't end up as a solid event for most of us in SW Mo and NW Ar. 

Agree.   We should cash in at least 3" or so.

Radar returns looking good over SC OK.

4 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Missouri, over in Humansville there(what a name lol). I did grow up in Jersey, extreme south jersey close to the coast.

Gotcha.  MO had some good storms back in the day.  I miss Monett for sure. 

5 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I know Wx24/7 well. There's another long time lurker here Monett here as well, who needs to make an account. 

 

Speaking of which, they both just texted me that SGF finally a pulled the trigger. Warning up now for an additional 3-6. That should give you all down that way some hope. 

Good news!

1 minute ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Man I dont know about you but I miss my old stomping grounds! It was just small town country living at its best!! Will probly move back that way sometime in the future, man I remember the big storm that hit hard and fast before we left(cannot remember what year it was now). We got like 22" of snow from that beast, was one epic snow!

You talking about Missouri or Jersey?  Did u grow up in Jersey?

1 minute ago, MUWX said:

Yep, 2013. 

My son graduated there in '14.  He ran cross country there.   His name is Conor.  Another poster on here,  Wx24/7, is from Monett.

Just now, MUWX said:

Yep. I lived in Monett until I went to college, now we live in republic. 

Ok, cool.  You graduate from Monett?

3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Yeah, roughly 10 miles south west. Its really hard to say how much we have. The grass is just now getting covered, so maybe around 2". Moderate snow currently falling. 

Are you near Republic?  I used to live in Monett, about 10 yrs there. 

JoMo, how much have you gotten so far?

6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

If you ask me, we are performing well in spite of the synoptic set up. 

Are you around Springfield?  How much you have on the ground now?  Best guess

2 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Here's to hoping, otherwise I have to agree with NWWhiteOut, seems like so much wasted potential with the synoptic setup.

Agree.  Lucky to hit warning criteria here as Whiteout stated. 

I'm just hoping for 4" here.   My initial call was 2-4 as I guess I'm in the SGF conservative camp.   Snowstorms have a mind of their own for sure.   Best measurement here shows 1.5" here so far.

Just now, The Waterboy said:

I really wasn’t expecting much out of this first wave.  The HRRR runs last night had these bands further west.  So I’m considering this first part some bonus snow.  Around an inch here so far but hard to tell for sure. 

Yah you and I will have to cash in later today and tonight. 

4 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Tulsa updated, chopped totals by about an inch, says SE OK and W AR expected to get the most. 

Yah I got my doubts about getting 5" here now.   Will be hard to measure for sure. 

3 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

North Tulsa county in Owasso/Collinsville.

Ah, you look to be in good shape for this one. 

1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

0z 3K NAM looking Nice!

 

Yes!  Where are you located?

8 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Still trending downward on QPF on the Euro. 

Looks a lot like the UK.  Not good.   UK/Euro vs. US models.

Edit:  sorry I was looking at the 10:1 charts.

18 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z UKMET also shifted SE up this way, which is good cause it had a relatively drier area in NW AR that is now located in central AR.

UK looks much drier everywhere,  than the other models. 

I like the snow depth map better. Of course, my house sits right under that 9.4 lol. 

1 minute ago, JoMo said:

So out of all the models that have run so far, I'm probably averaging around 4" of 10:1. Tack on an extra inch or two for colder temps, so maybe the upper end of SGF's forecast amounts. If they can identify where any bands set up, then maybe those areas will get put under a Winter Storm Warning as they may exceed 6".

Would be so cool for this entire 4- states area to be under a Winter warning at the same time.   

12z GFS looking better for the NWA crew.  Trends are good so far.

Just now, StormChazer said:

You know I will be.

I don't have to check Pivotal.  I'll just get up during the night and read the play by play on here.   You guys give great summaries and post the good maps.