am19psu

"4. Please respect the professionals that post here. They will make forecasts as they are comfortable but continued pestering or badgering of them will result in the quickest exit from this board"

fyp

It's interesting you say this because I definitely sense the same thing re: hurricanes. After 2005, everyone was vigilant and had their ducks in a row prior to the season in 2006. Having talked to our clients, even though we are very bullish on a MH landfall this year, no one really seems to be taking the threat seriously. I hope our forecasts are wrong, and if they aren't, I hope that it doesn't go into a major population center because I fear many people will be unprepared.

See you in three days.

Didn't get the message, did you?

You need to cool it with these types of posts.

Hopefully you can join us in tropical season, when every tropical storm north of the islands with be comparable to Andrew.

I'd say the null hypothesis is kush's position, personally.

Not really. We're not given the full range of daily precip amounts or the autocorrelation between days. It could just as easily be well within the distribution.