burrel2

Looks like it's going to Snow in Upstate SC on Tuesday morning. Where's everyone at?

Yea, that good pattern went to garbage awfully quick. We needed more energy left behind for the 2nd wave and all of the models trended towards the first wave today.

I think there's room for this storm to produce significant ice for a large section of NC Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. CAD placement looks perfect on the globals. and the GFS has been trending colder at the surface with each run. FV3gfs has nearly the entire state of NC bottoming out around 32/33 Tuesday night/Wed am with a textbook high placement. It's unfortunate we don't have even an average strength cold/dry high pressure in front of this storm or it would be a doozy.

1. Most of the global models were way too warm for the December event at 5 to 7 day lead times. 2. You didn't make it to 32/33 with the last wedge because it didn't precipitate when it was suppose to. Had it rained that morning you would have dropped that low or lower. And again, no models had that CAD event anywhere near 32/33 at 5 to 7 day lead times, except maybe the fv3gfs. 3. I'm not saying the CAD will trend stronger with this storm. I am saying that, as depicted on the specific model runs I posted, the surface temperatures they are showing would be too warm.

IMO, models are starting to cluster to a Classic damming event for next Tuesday. Euro/GFS would be way off with their surface temp depictions if they verified as shown. 12z Euro and 18z GFS look like carbon copies of each other for Tuesday morning. CAD high is in perfect position. the air mass in place isn't that cold, but the source region of the high pressure is fairly cold/dry. Edit to add: haven't checked for ensemble support... hope there is some.

Yea, I actually went back through the last 7 or 8 FV GFS runs and pretty much every one of them has this storm with a nice look to it.

10 day threat looks like a pretty solid pattern for scoring, imo. FV GFS has been fairly consistent with it over the last few days.

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Nobody in the Southeast is ever a lock for frontal passage snow. lol

Jump on the bandwagon while you still can!

Great for Columbia, SC.

So close to something huge...

I'm liking the 2/1-2/2 potential. Looks like plenty of cold air available if some of the energy dropping down can amplify a little bit, at this lead time we might see some mega-hits showing up on the models soon.

I've actually been rooting for this pattern to be a big bust since I'm going to be in Costa Rica from January 25th to February 2nd. Looks like I'm going get this trip off without missing any threats!

3:00pm and it hasn't rained a drop here. According to all the models yesterday I should have gotten 1/10th of rain before daylight this morning, and continuing through the day. Strange...

PV split failed... in other news, water is wet.

GSP is being way too conservative with the freezing rain threat for tonight/wed morning. Not sure what models they are looking at. WWA should be extended down in the upstate. Roads along I85 are going to be a mess and they don't have that included in the advisory.

And yea... February 2014 sucked just as bad every other storm here.

Nope, 3 inches of slop in 93, and a little under 3 inches in 96. Oddly enough the 2nd biggest snowfall I have ever measured was 4 inches on the nose and it was a dinky clipper system that hit at daybreak in the late 90's. I got maxima'd under a little band for a couple hours and picked up 4 inches while most other places in the upstate got an inch or two. I was living in Walhalla at the time for this storm, Clemson only got an inch or so. For that event, I can name you 20 events where we have gotten absolutely screwed. The two classic examples of places due South of here getting way more snow than I've ever seen would be February 2004, March 1, 2009, and Feb 2010. February 2004 probably stung the worst of them all. I got a freaking DUSTING from that storm...

Except they got 8.6 inches in feb 2010. The only event in history where the northern extent of precip was not under modeled... screwing the upstate.

Your logic if flawed for Clemson, SC. You can pick any city out of a hat in Alabama/GA/SC/NC and they have had a bigger snow in the last 25 years than here. Since 1988 the biggest single snowfall event in Clemson, SC was 5.75 inches on 1/11/2011. Second biggest snowfall in that time period is less than 4 inches. So in Summary, I'm not just jealous of Asheville, NC. I'm jealous of Columbia, Augusta, Atlanta, Macon, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Birmingham, Athens, Columbus, Charlotte, etc.etc.etc.

I can tell you the Fv3GFS absolutely nailed the thermal profile here for our storm and we wound up with 1.25 inches of sleet. If you had simply went by the TT kuchera snowmap for my location it was showing 6 inches of snow right up to the event start time. The map/algorithm just can't accurately describe ground truth and it was just wrong, but all of the measurable air data on the fv3 was accurate, and I got what I expected from the strom based off the fv3 data.

To talk further about this specific storm in charlotte. A lot of models were showing a possible "sleet" sounding, but in reality the low level cold pool may not have been deep enough to freeze the water droplets leading to plain rain. The skew-T could have been dead accurate by that models prediction, but the clown map/precip type map is not sophisticated enough to read a sounding and accurately describe would is falling from the sky with that sounding at every point location in the region. So precip type map may show all of charlotte in the sleet color zone, when in reality it's simply raining there, but the model did not bust on it's analysis,(other than the precip type maps).

Every model wasn't too cold for Charlotte if you don't base a model busting or verifying off the clown map predictions which honestly mean nothing in terms of what a model is actually showing. For instance, some clown maps don't account for warm air above 850mb... some of them don't account for surface temps being above freezing... As an example: If the GFS is showing a moderate snow sounding at noon with all layers below freezing except the surface temperature is 34 degree's for 3 hours. It's clown maps will show 3 inches of accumulations, but in reality there be 0 accumulation due to the 34 degree surface temperature and solar insolation. If that verified exactly as the model predicted, there would be 0 accumulation, but Mack would be on here a few hours later crying about how terrible GFS did with his snowstorm.