burrel2

ICON has the storm.

Cold press/ New England vortex seems too strong on the modeling right now for much amplification of anything dropping in on the back side. The good thing is the vortex will undoubtedly trend weaker and less pressing as we got closer; which will hopefully allow room for something to develop behind it. It's definitely a good look at this range.

Fayetteville got hosed.

Has anyone in NC gotten 4 inches or more today? Including the mountains?

It's near impossible to predict how low level temps will play out with these systems. A few weeks ago it was raining here and 41 degree's with no wetbulbing left, and 2 hours later it was 34 degree's and ripping snow at 11am. Today we had extremely dry air work in in the 875-950mb range. 925mb wetbulbed down to -1C, seemingly leading a person to believe the low level above freezing layer could only be maybe 200 or 300 meters thick. Yet, today we wetbulbed down to 37-38 at the surface and then the temp never budged, while it snowed/rained moderately for hours on end. Part of it was definitely rates as I only wound up with 4/10th's of liquid for the storm, and all the shortrange models had me getting .6-.8inches of liquid. Either way, it's really disappointing because I was more worried about the 800mb warm nose for my area and that actually wound up being South of what models showed by a few miles and was not a problem for us today.

Really odd to see the CMC and EURO have the same storm with the same trajectory and snowfall 9 days out.

Parachutes mixing in here now, I can literally look up in the sky and see a massive blizzard beign swept in the wind a few hundred feet off the surface. Come on down already!!!!

Fluffy flakes starting to mix in with the white rain in Clemson. Temp is 38. Expecting a transition to heavy snow within the next 30 minutes.

Can't believe the surface boundary layer is this deep when we just had sleet and mesoanalysis showing 925mb temps below -1C.

It's dependent on rates. If we get 2 inch per hour rates it'll crash temps. Same for your location.

Surface temps can be tricky with elevation in your area depending on the wind direction. If you are on a west facing slope you will get some downslope warming from the strong 925mb northeasterly flow. Conversely, if you're on an east face slope at the same elevation, you will be several degrees cooler with that flow.

imo, the northern upstate may wind up doing as well as many in Eastern NC with this storm. Looks like we can pick up 1/2 to 3/4 of liquid over the next 4 hours and should be changing to snow with surface temps crashing in the next hour.

CC radar snow line is finally collapsing with the heavier rates, Radar back West looks amazing temp rapidly dropping... Northern Upstate looking good.

A few wet snowflakes splattering the windshield in clemson

Surface temps won't be a problem at your location. you're still waiting on the 800mb freezing level to move to your South. Should happen within the next hour.

You're in a great spot! relax

Going on surface obs and radar extreme Northern Alabama is going to get accumulations over the next 2 hours. Surface has dropped to 33/34 there and continuing to go down and the rain/snow line has pushed south of them.

Surface temps have dropped to 38 degree's just northeast of atlanta where heavy rain has set in. They've got 1/3 inch of liquid so far. Keep in mind they are +5C at 850mb right now. Seems like area's to the Northeast of here already have lower dew points to start and colder temps aloft, should have no problem dropping down to 34/35 when heavy precip moves in, and then hopefully go to 32/33 as half dollar flakes slam down.

Some good news. 06z 3km NAM is too far north with the warm nose. It had it all the way up to near asheville at 10am . CC radar comfirms it's already crossing the NC/SC border and heading south. 12zz 3km NAM has fixed this issue, shows the warm nose much further south at 10am.

I'm not buying it or discounting it. You can already see the R/S line on the CC radar saggingn south on the NC/SC border. I do believe it will be snow for the northern half of Oconee/Pickens/Greenville when the heavy rates get here. I am not certain if our surface temps will be cold enough for it to stick, but if we get 2 inch per hour rate this afternoon that will stick regardless of surface temps.(and crash surface temps to 32/33 even if they're at 40 before the rates pick up.)

HRRR crushes i-85 and north in the upstate with over one half inch of liquid after the column reaches isothermal at 1pm. According to this model, we only waste about .05 inches of liquid before the change over. Here's the radar valid at 3pm today. You can see the R/S line

HRRR isn't far out for my back yard. It shows no precip until 11am while the NAM has .25 inches falling here by 10am. That's only a 15'ish hour lead time.

3km NAM still has the warm nose for my backyard. Also has .25 qpf falling in my backyard by 10am, RAP and HRR is bone dry until noon.

I'm not concerned with low level temps on the HRRR, i know it has a warm bias. Also, precip hasn't started on that panel so no wetbulb or top down cooling has started on that panel. I'm much more concerned with the 800mb warm nose, and the HRR looks promising from that standpoint.

Big shift south with the R/S line on the latest Hrrr... caveat, above this line isn't snow if your low level temps are too warm for it to reach the ground. Also it's even slower with precip arrival. Valid 10am tomorrow morning Sounding is for Clemson, SC at 10am.