burrel2
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Everything posted by burrel2
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Hrrr is a perfect scenario for the upstate.
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The 21z rap and 18z hrrr line up pretty well with keeping the best forcing over the upstate and piedmont. Either they are both way off or the NAM is out to lunch. Time will tell.
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The RAP is ugly for mountain folk. They’ve had their share of snow this year though right?
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Lookout!!!! Athens jackpot on the rap!!
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21z rap is a crush job for the upstate and northeast Georgia. Jackpot band has already dropped .3/4 inch of liquid by 8pm across i85 in SC. Rain/snow line is down to Elberton/abbeville
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FWIW, the 18z hrrr looks good for the upstate.
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Yea and even the dumpster fire nam shows that our thermal profiles are fine even with that solution to score a front end thump. The problem with the nam is there’s no appreciable precip with the initial waa. Have to hope that’s wrong.(it’s on an island with that idea for now).
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Sorry, the 15z. Lol.
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That’s Kuchera from the 21z rap.
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I agree, all I worry about is Getting the heavy rates to overcome the boundary layer. If we get the rates we will get 3-6 inches. If it’s spotty and lighter than models show we will get no accumulation. The boundary layer was thicker last season and I managed 3 inches thanks to 3 hours of steady heavy rates.
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Clayton Georgia has some elevation. They’re gonna get hammered.
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Upstate/Triangle folks will like the 21z rap. It’s a crush job.
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I’ll be very, very surprised if you don’t get at least 4 inches. I’d bet the house on it.
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I think we have our goal posts on amperage. Nam being the most extreme possibility and hrrr being the most suppressed possibility.
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The surface is problematic... but guys, we aren’t talking about an isothermal sounding from 800mb on down. In fact... we’ve got a down right frigid sounding thanks to a nice insitu wedge. That boundary layer isn’t deep enough and the snow that’s falling will be traveling through cold enough air that we will quickly hit 32 once rates pick up, imo.
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I’m not basing my thoughts off clown maps.
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I feel good about at least 5 inches here after pouring over the data. Let the record show the biggest snowstorm of my lifetime was only 5.75 inches from the January 2011 storm. what could go wrong? Only thing I see at this point is rates not materializing like depicted which we need to cool the boundary layer tomorrow afternoon.
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Front end thumps usually work out here. I’ll add that by the time we have questionable 850mb temps late tomorrow evening it doesn’t matter Bc the precip has moved out. This looks like a quick hitting dump that’ll drop 3-5 inches across the upstate from 3pm-7pm Saturday. I don’t see any mixing coming in to the picture until rates slack off and the dry slot moves in around midnight.
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Dang guys, things really escalated overnight, huh? Woke up to every model dumping 6 inches of paste here with 850s in the -3 to -5 range. What a time to be alive!
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This set up is just crazy in general. I’ve never followed anything like it in the last 20 years. If we don’t score it’ll be a travesty.
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I will say, front end thumps tend to over perform... imo. Lots of times model under estimate how much liquid falls out ahead of the waa. Wouldn’t be totally shocked to see a couple inches across a wide swath of our area before changing over. I remember around 2005 or 2006 I got 3 inches from a front end thump that looked like it would snow quickly changing to rain.
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Feel confident I will get a front end burst of snow here Saturday evening. Not confident it cools down enough to stick before changing over to sleet/rain. But I would take seeing moderate snow falling as a win on this one.
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The mean is warmer Bc There are several solutions like the OP and warmer. Doesn’t mean that’s how it’s going to pan out. There are lots of cold solutions too. The cmc keeps the Canadian vortex moving east as does last nights euro.
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Lows below 0 after the storm... 4 straight days below freezing and another threat moves in.
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It’s really critical that the Canadian vortex ejects East like the gfs/jma show. That allows room for amplification and phasing of the southern stream wave. Cold air doesn’t seem to be an issue so hopefully no worries rooting for the quick ejection. we can still score even if it evolves differently but that’s what we need for the storm of the century scenario.
