Jonathan
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Everything posted by Jonathan
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Hot take: the proper use of the term as we use it is "ensemble" ie, the GFS ensemble. NOT ensembleS.
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Still a lot of football left, but I'm a Titans fan and this is kinda crazy.
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Oh, ok. I didn't realize that was op vs ens. For sure on the ensemble. Let's keep the good juju flowing!
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Soooo, which is it?
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Unrelated, but how absolutely incredible is this? The NAO is a living being and it knows EXACTLY when meteorological winter begins. It's like someone flips the POSITIVE switch literally at 12am on 12/1. Unreal.
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Ended the "event" with about an hour and a half of sleet to sleet/snow to all snow. Got a nice little coating on the decks, cars and dirt. Temp got down to 33. Neat little early November treat.
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Maybe so, but the EPS (and GEFS) paints a not-terrible pattern after day 10 with some -NAO action. So at least maybe we don't torch. Yet.
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From WOOF to POOF on the 12z EURO
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The ICON HAS to be too warm with a 1040-1041 HP in a beautiful spot. 32F line runs right along the VA/NC border. It has this problem with the December storm too, IIRC.
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Brandon do you think north of I-40 has a decent shot to stay all snow or do we mix? Would really love to see another Miller A but a B/hybrid would mix a lot of folks. Also, both GFS models continue bringing the goods with southern storm after southern storm and big Canadian HPs dropping down every few days. Fun times ahead?
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Mother nature doesn't care who "wins" in snowfall. Signed, I got 16" today. You guys can have the next one, unless it's on Christmas, in which case we'll take that one too and you guys can have the next one...
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Yeah I thought the NAM done great. RDU coming out pretty good! Congrats Brick and others!
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Euro was an absolute paste bomb for western NC all the way through SWVA. Roanoke VA 12" Martinsville 20" Greensboro 17" Hickory 20" Wilkesboro 20" Wake County 5-13" from SE to NW Charlotte 7-10" from SE to NW
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I second this nomination!
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12z FV3?
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Meh, I get sleeted on too sometimes. If we lose the EURO this afternoon, it's officially worry time for real. Currently hugging the 3k NAM/RGEM/CMC/ICON...that's perfectly reasonable, right?!
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Seriously though, are we still in this? I mean I'm further south than you but I still cant help but to feel it's slipping away. Guess for SWVA it's 3K NAM/ICON/RGEM vs 12K NAM and the globals?
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dat 3K NAM tho
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I'm just really depressed this morning. Going to call out of work and drink.
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GFS ensemble is hundreds of miles south. Hundreds.
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Eh, I think we'll like the outcome of the FV3 actually. It has a very long duration event.
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We'll bathe in your NC tears come Monday. Enjoy your sleet.
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Well that GFS run should drag you back to reality! Zero precip north of NC. Unreal.
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I counted 5 negatives in there. I think 2 cancel each other out which leaves 1 negative, 1 undetermined and 1 positive. So everything's going according to plan. Except Brick's 6"+ Good deal. Hopefully the precip doesn't underperform like the NAM's massive fail out in OK/TX. That was absolutely brutal. Also the 850 temps are crazy borderline. Bet I sleet down here closer to the NC border.
