Jonathan

And what has that gotten us? The same thing we get when the phases are flipped. We got punk'd by the models yet again. December was our shot and we flopped. Christmas week is now warming up on the models then we absolutely BAKE after Christmas. So then, in mid December we're now chasing phantom cold for mid January after this post-Christmas "thaw" (more like bbq) BUT by then, the Nina will have strengthened and taken hold so it's ultimately too late at that point. It's warm and dry from here on out with these little 1-2 day cold spurts. But once the SE ridge takes hold in the next week or two we won't even have to worry about those little 2-day cold shots anymore. It's ok though, I'm sure winter 25-26 will be rockin'.

Handful of action on the 18z GFS. Nothing huge but some blips nonetheless.

Real ones know this pattern isn't supportive of snow down here unfortunately. Then once this cold shot relaxes, we'll all be looking for fool's gold again the rest of our warm, dry winter lol.

To build upon this (I'm not J Wall btw lol), if we look at the Teleconnections from the 00z EURO Ensemble, we see hints of this also. First, the PNA. It's been a huge thorn in our side but it finally looks to move positive by JAN 20. This is huge for us, especially in combination with a big -NAO that looks to relax a bit (but still be negative) towards the same period. Per Tomer Burg, winter storms in the eastern U.S. tend to pop up when a -NAO relaxes a bit and we see this happen in that JAN 17-20 timeframe as well: Rounding out our other main teleconnections, both the EPO and AO look to remain negative throughout the period as well. With all that said, perhaps we sneak out a winter storm for the southeast (and possibly up the east coast, Miller A style) in that JAN 15-20ish period.

Can't even get a good ZR event here anymore. In the last 12 hours, my .25"+ of ice is looking real .10"ish. By tonight it'll be all rain and 38°. Until we get a +PNA, you can kiss any chance of snow goodbye in the southeast, and not a single piece of data hints at a +PNA developing at any time. MJO is heading into warm phases for the dead of winter. It's ok, Fab Feb will save us. Always the best month in a Nino! Except it's barely a Nino anymore and will be a Nina by late-Feb. I also love watching Texas and Arkansas rack up on snow while being 5-10 degrees of longitude south of me. Storm track is from Louisiana to Pennsylvania. I'll be glad when climate change puts us all out of our misery. Hopefully it accelerates even more than it already is. Get me off this stupid, burning rock as quickly as possible. Serenity now.

Then when we get to 1/12, we'll have kicked the can another two weeks down the road and saying "yeah, it sucks we lost the first 1/3 of winter but the pattern by the end of the month looks promising." Why does anyone put themselves through such torture. The snow line will be north of Kentucky in 5 years or less. With that said, the 12z Euro had 15/50 ensemble members with accumulating snow in the foothills and western piedmont (I looked at KMTV Martinsville VA since it's close enough to the mountains but is still considered western piedmont. So there's that, I guess.

It's beautiful. Frame it, because we'll never see it under 240hr.

Super Ultra Mega Generational Nino on the way to rain (literally) on everyone's parade for the next two years.

Winter is coming...

You know what WON'T trend NW? That system everyone was watching for 12/26. It's now out to sea on all data and you can kiss that goodbye.

A tale as old as time. We see this happen with EVERY potential system DEC-FEB every winter. Climate change and ENSO background state will outweigh every positive teleconnection you can have. Ninas gonna Nina. There's a reason we don't get cold and snow in Ninas. We get baited by these computers EVERY time and swear we won't do it again. This "cold shot/cold pattern" will be a 2-day deal on the models by early next week and we'll be wondering why we're running the AC at Christmas/New Year's yet again. One thing I REALLY can't believe is that the models even fooled Brad Panovich. He's usually rock-steady in the "nothing's gonna happen, social media is just being crazy with snow maps." He took the bait yesterday, made a YT video and everything. That's something you don't see often. The models get us Every. Single. Time. Yesterday: Snow Today: Mix Tomorrow: Rain The Next Day: Tornado outbreak GFS folds to Euro EVERY. TIME. Winter is so awesome!

Next!

GFS unfortunately is on an island. Worse than an island, a different solar system. It has zero support and until it gets some it must be treated for what it always has been; garbage. Waste of taxpayer money.

Somebody shut this model down. I have never seen a more insane setup for a dreadful Euro run in all my days.

YIKES! 0z Euro absolutely craps the bucket with a warm rainstorm 12/22. GFS Ensembles were awful as well, cutting VA's snow totals in half and almost removing them completely for NC.