Disc

Globals are keeping it just under the 0c isotherm, but I still don't think they're picking up on the warm layer. I'd be glad to eat my words later, but this one just screams mixing all the way into western VA. We do get a good ULL pass so that may help at the end. 2014's storm was further east though. This one is way inland and we had mixing issues up to the Blue Ridge in 2014 with a storm that was further east. Perhaps trends will improve tomorrow, there's still a little time left.

I am just not feeling this for southern/SW VA. With such an inland track and secondary low still wanting to go up the Apps, we will mix sooner than later. I've seen it numerous times. This is why I was hesitant earlier to say 12" up here is a lock and the trends this evening have me even less confident.

18z ECMWF was similar to the 12z run. The low transfer to the coast took slightly longer though.

I'd say between 7am-10am.

I don't live too far from the office, but will be an interesting ride. If I can make it out of the neighborhood to 460 I think I should be ok. If I had to commute from Roanoke I don't think I'd make it up Christiansburg Mountain.

Last good one (12"+) was Dec 2018 so it's been a little while. Before that one I'd have to go back to Feb 2014. I am going into work late Sunday night and will be working all night. I am rooting for an earlier starting storm for 2 reasons.. 1) This would mean less of a mixing concern here and (2 It would be over with by the time I have to go to work. The trends this morning have favored this so let's hope it continues.

Sleet is most likely. The depth of the CAD is very large. This is not the typical shallow CAD scenario.

We're sitting good up here. I'm not ready to say 12" is a lock, but the trends this morning have been good.

Pretty certain we'll be mixing at some point. Hard not to when there's a sfc low riding up I-95.

LP transfers to the GA coast early Sunday afternoon. 1001mb. Mixing in NC. Mtns do well.

Heavy snow breaking out across NC at 15z Sun.

Ukmet is 18" at DC on Kuchera clown map.

I really don't use it outside of 48 hours. It's fun to look beyond, but take it with a grain of salt.

I will say this: I have never made a forecast using the ICON model. Entertainment at best.

Yep, this is a money run for areas between US460 and I40.

ICON will be a big hit for southern VA.

Rather underwhelming here. Might have an inch on the ground. Rates haven't been all that good and took until almost 7am to go to all snow. Glad to see others to the south doing well though.

Still 36F and rain here. Not impressed with the trends at the moment.

While I'm sure that's a bit overdone, it's obvious that this is a very dynamic system capable of some serious snowfall rates. My real concern today has been the trend with a later changeover from rain to snow. Some guidance is now showing we won't flip until 7-8am, with the precip moving out a few hours later. That's gonna leave a lot of folks disappointed. The change from rain to snow is never favorable around here as I'm sure you already know, but the thing going for us here is this being such a dynamic system and the lift is crazy. Here is a frame from the 00z NAM (10z/5am).. ..this frontogenesis band along the Blue Ridge means business. Although the model may indicate rain/mix at this timeframe and the surface is mid 30s, it's likely gonna be snow if you're under that. With lift and rates like that it will obviously cool the surface quickly. The change over to snow will be once this passes over. Older runs had this coming through sooner and we switch to snow sooner, thus better totals. Something to watch, but regardless we're still good for at least a few inches of paste. If we didn't have a surface low rapidly developing to the south, you wouldn't get the heavy rates, and in turn this would've likely been a cold rain for most. We're truly getting lucky here to be getting any snow.

Another from downtown Mayfield.

Mayfield courthouse.

Could be a fiber cut. If no internet and backups have failed, can't issue products. They will still be able to see the radar locally, but it's not getting out for the world to see.

I think PAH is down hard. Radar image is old. Springfield is doing full service backup.

I logged in just to mention this, but you already commented. Speechless.

It's been an interesting day...