Burghblizz

If that were the only model I saw, I would think we were in for a plain rainstorm, and somewhere between Columbus and Detroit eventually gets nailed. GFS usually doesn’t tick SE in this range. NWS doesn’t seem to be buying it. The non-event scenario would be more due to a progressive, weaker storm that doesn’t tap any cold air (as opposed to a larger one that charges north). Probably won’t have a great idea for 24 hours.

Real nice discussion. We normally call it out when they mail it in too, but that’s a good one

The old live model threads were nice because there were 4 or 5 Mets chiming in live on what they were seeing. But then weenies would jump in saying things like “it’s coming north!, just because the QPF shading over their house ticked north. Meanwhile, the storm was the other direction. At one point, non-red taggers got banned from them. It’s better now in terms of focused content, but back then you would have more interaction with a larger group (which, yes, sometimes led to fights )

I’ll take it since you guys got the lake band . But yeah, it looks like up in the air not only regionally, but locally. Wouldn’t be shocked if it was another one that split our area in terms of impact. Model biases seem out the window too.

I’m on the good side of that cutoff, but it’s tight. Hopefully 0Z shows that swath a tick south.

NAM has 6”+ and still snowing at 84. Certainly not a bad sign

12z….GFS taken literally has more snow than the Euro IMBY… but that look scares me. This will probably flip flop a few times by Sunday, so going to try to put it down for 24 hours

The way this winter has gone, I’d sign now for the 5” IMBY with the possibility for more chances the second half of the month.

Less brutal cold, but more snow on average when looking at more than the last 15 months. Not all that horrible. So now that we’ve established that it’s been a mild winter, time to focus on a potential pattern flip.

Good assessment. I’m going to try to enjoy some longer walks with the dog, and hope for a kick ass final 5-6 weeks.

March ‘22 had an 8” ish storm around around the 12th, and then a very active LES pattern even into the latter part of the month. So it was a good month, although lots of melting in between events. But hey, it was March. Other thing I remember is someone (I think Ahoff) started a spring thread in February since it was sucking. Must have worked as a reverse jinx as we finished strong. Threaded the needle nicely on the bigger storm as this long area of precip trained for awhile

Funny how the NAM is a cold outlier. Not sure if maybe it’s overdoing the rates leading to more dynamic cooling. But it’s been consistently showing that backend snow.

You made me look. I’d be happy to wait 9 days for a 970mb retrograding bomb.

NAM is most aggressive with a period changing to snow tomorrow. Has been liking North and West of city. Taken literally, about 4” at KPIT. Probably won’t be able to thread the needle like that, and surface temps will likely be above freezing. Something to watch though.

Maybe just start your own thread where you can dump whatever statistics you want for wherever you want. If it’s the warmest day that the neighbors dog took a shit facing south, you don’t have to worry about it being irrelevant.

That would be surprising. Because it feels like we got our snows in smaller chunks over the last 20 years (with a few big exceptions like 2.10 and 12.20). That would in theory need more frequent snows to keep the averages up.

You’re not wrong. Fewer clippers, more flirting with mix. There have been subtle changes. Maybe offset by more extended LES nuisance snows. But I think 2023 is a blip. There have been plenty before. Talking warm temps last night and today is very relevant. But Dozens (if not hundreds) of posts that build towards some narrative that our overall snow is dying is the clutter I’m talking about. Nothing in the long term data shows that.

Funny how you think you understand my “politics”. Definitely a different person than your “assumptions”, and not in any way disputing the science. I’m just sick of a formally great thread cluttered with it when…again…local sensible weather will go through cycles.

Wait - time out. Not sure who you “some of you” are. I have no issues with “climate change talk”. I have issues with the flat out obsession of a poster (or three) obsessing over every slice of data that might show a a degree or two warmer for *this* area. Local sensible weather (esp snowfall) has not declined here over extended periods For 15+ years (going back to eastern), this thread has been about winter storm chasing. Sure we can acknowledge if it’s warm, etc. But some weird slice of data everyday? I mean look at the Buffalo thread from last year. Climate Changer had 9 posts in a row about Lake Erie being a half degree warmer or some shit. Those guys went to Discord. They want to talk about chasing their 2-4’ lake band. So again…it’s not about the topic or the science. It’s about the place and frequency.

No one cares

While gambling and winter seasons are both “independent trials” as far as what happens next, I think both have long term expected outcomes. Red and black on Roulette will come up the same % over the very long term. Pittsburgh will get 44” of snow a year over the long term. And while there are broader climate considerations at play, there hasn’t been an extended period of time where those averages have significantly changed here. So I do think “payback is coming”. It’s worked that way throughout the period of recorded weather history.

Euro is not quite there…but close. 6-7” from 422 north. Foot plus north central Pa. Considerably east versus yesterday with snow significantly farther south. Another shift like that and we’re in. Unfortunately, not the direction you would expect the Euro to shift, but worth watching.

I had 9” in Monroeville March 2013 as well. Maybe this underperformed at the airport, but this was another nice March storm. So I wouldn’t say the few years after 2010 had nothing, just these memories tend to fade quicker than huge storms.

I don’t think the NWS frequency page is ever updated, and I never liked the way they do their end points. Ive stopped looking at it, but I think it had something like: 5”+’twice a year…. 8-12” once every 2 years….13”+ once every 14. So you can spin the expectancy of a 12” type storm a couple different ways, but a storm that pushes or exceeds double digits is about a once every 2 year thing historically. The good news is those solid 8-12” snowstorms that had been missing for a bunch of years have been better. I think we have 4 since 2018 (5 for some people that caught the lake band). So despite the horrible last 15 months, that is a positive overall. We are also officially due for a mega storm.

GFS is close to something for next Sunday. Good track - just not quite enough cold. Probably a good idea to put this one down for few days and just check back around Thursday Low probability as it looks now, but falling at peak climo for cold.