Burghblizz

NAM likely isn’t right. Mid level low is far enough SE that it’s not going to flood like that. If it does, we are going to have a helluva snow cone Monday Morning.

Sounds pretty fair

Probably a blend as it’s their actual forecast. That heavier band N/NW has been consistently showing up as as some of mixing/slotting. Just depends on where that all lands.

My takeaway from the NAM is juicier. Puts some big totals north and west of the city, and somehow has a little bullseye of .50 freezing rain over my house (but not north, south, east or west) Not sure if that’s a function of it struggling at long range, or picking up on something. My guess is that there some brief warming from the inland low, and the totals differ based on the how much QPF there is during that period. So it looks wonky. I hope we have a nice fat swath of straight snow by tommorow.

Mesoscale modes aren’t going to do great with mesoscale features at hour 84

Yeah it’s fine. Slightly Different evolution and the heavy banding is bouncing around. So it’s location specific output might look a little less.

Lots of details to be worked out - but I love that look of a captured /retrograding storm. Puts accumulating snow well into Monday.

I don’t recall anyone mixing. Greene and Fayette counties got drilled. 30” lollipops.

EURO more WEST. Sneaking a leak (and a peek) in a meeting, but I think it’s output is going to be nice (esp city and east)

Stronger and maybe a little dicey for the Mon Valley. North of city looks great. Still good run IMO since there is some “too far east” leaning guidance out there too

Oh boy…

Roads are getting bad pretty quickly. I could see places in the Mon/Yough valley pulling out 4” or 5”

Crazy that last year we already had a double digit storm in the books, and was knocking on the door of our 3rd 6”er. On the bright side - hasn’t been any stress or disappointment yet. But I’m more than ready for it

1.6” officially. Mostly wet in the city. Impressive for 4.21!

I like the way the snow came too. Nice big chunks. So maybe we didn’t hit prodigious season totals since the ending fizzled, but enjoyable. (I bet we do add something to that total, just not counting on anything that changes the overall winter assessment)

RIP Bob Kudzma Fun fact is that he drove a bus for 18 years after he retired on the air. Just something he said was his dream as a kid. Seems like he was a good guy. Growing up he was like the NAM with the juiced up totals, and Denardo as like the Euro (except this yr) telling us not so fast. He used to say that he forcasted to prepare people. Throw Bowman in there and it was quite a nice local met dynamic. Definitely appointment TV to get their forcasts after tracking a storm on TWC 5 day business planner.

Gotta love it here. I probably spent 15 hours on the bigger “second wave” for Monday night. Not one flake. Then it snows 2” by almost by accident.

NAM and GFS agree about as often as opposing political parties - but they have both been pretty consistent for a quick 2”-3” Monday morning (NAM maybe a tad more because it’s actually a little colder)

I got a nice band overnight and woke up to about 2” on my car (so we’ll call it slightly less). But then that dry slot was fierce.

I have a theory that it’s really undermodeled up the 119 corridor, just west of the ridges. That’s the area that the newer models really show the enhanced screw zone first when the warm tongue is an issue. But it also appears that that area does very well during WWA snows. I could be way off in saying that somehow the positioning relative to the ridges makes that process more efficient - but it sure seems that way. Exhibit A to that theory is that corridor is getting drilled pretty good right now

I could see 5” or 6” south east of the city. Moisture looks pretty robust and those areas will be in it longer, I was half expecting some Virga with this first batch, but sticking efficiently. Could be another little storm where we maximize every flake!

Meanwhile - snowing pretty hard again right now. Band looks mostly west-east going through the city and just south

Basically a guy named Kuchera came up with a complicated formula. We like it because it usually shows more snow. So you will see it more on this forum. But what I think it is is a formula that uses the highest temp found at 500 mb, and thus can account for temps in the column a little better. I think the intial intent was to project how much compacting will take place, but it does usually show more than 10:1 unless there is a lot of sleet. Thats basically what I remember - but I mostly like it because it shows more snow

A little over an inch today officially of bonus snow