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Burghblizz

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Everything posted by Burghblizz

  1. Burghblizz
    The NAM was good with showing that there were going to be P type issues even north and west - but I’m not sure I give it too much credit because a wide spread Western/west central PA ice storm really didn’t materialize. Just a lot of mixing and flipping. Most areas around Pittsburgh look to be finishing 7” to 10” once this morning tapers off. The real prolific stuff got shunted a little more west, as the WV panhandle and extreme western PA should pop some 12” totals.
  2. Burghblizz
    The radar pivot and banding last night was awesome. I can’t see that .47” at the airport being accurate, but I don’t think a 2” hour was out of the question. I caught more the tail of that same band and it was rippin. A line from Weirton to Beaver falls will break a foot. That area did better with avoiding a prolong dry slot before everything pivoted. Most of the rest of us got caught up in it a little too long. Still a beautiful morning
  3. Burghblizz
    Got a couple hours of sleep bit woke up to some great bands. (By the way, I should have taken King Weenie’s bet since NWS total is closing in on 7”, and it looks like some 30 dbz are about to rotate in there.
  4. Burghblizz
    Radar filled in finally and pivoted. Been cranking for the last couple hours in Cranberry. Just passed 5”
  5. Burghblizz
    Dumping - back to all snow in Cranberry. 2.5” and .5” fresh during the 20 min I was just walking the dog
  6. Burghblizz
    It’s ripping here, despite what K-weenie sells. Been occasionally mixing, but heavy snow at the moment and still early on.
  7. Burghblizz
    As far as actual weather and not the weenie fest… When you have a strong 925 jet advecting into cold air, you have the recipe for some intense rates. But might have to flirt with some sleet to get it.
  8. Burghblizz
    Heavy snow in Cranberry. 24 degrees. Wind driven smaller flakes have turned to big fatties
  9. Burghblizz
    More wind driven and powdery than I was expecting to begin with
  10. Burghblizz
    One cat basically so weenied out that it makes it MA thread vibe. But they have like 20 like that
  11. Burghblizz
  12. Burghblizz
    Keep those southern obs coming
  13. Burghblizz
    If we can avoid the snow cone, the blowing and drifting might be understated to this point
  14. Burghblizz
    That’s my plan too. Sleep during dry slot :-)
  15. Burghblizz
    That’s the plan! (but I plan on a fun night regardless)
  16. Burghblizz
    Yinz are going to drive yourselves nuts clicking on hourly increments of hourly models for the 8 hours, and checking where the pretty colors line up. I think E to W across central AGC will be the difference between 8 and 12 because of dry slot duration. And N to S along that axis will add or subtract ~2” from that range. Beaver /Lawrence/Butler certainly have a shot to pop a 15” total.
  17. Burghblizz
    And just for fun the “best case” experimental view. That dry slot on NAM is still pretty fierce where I could see a place like Wheeling doubling up Greensburg. But in general, the NAM seems to have lost the total shit show solution, which is one of things I wanted to see.
  18. Burghblizz
    Not sure how Tolleris is resolving the fact that the NW edge outside his sleet line is where the totals should ramp up - yet that’s where he has the totals drop off. Probably the single most important issue in terms of where big totals wind up. He tries to forecast for a wide area, and doesn’t put diligence into those areas.
  19. Burghblizz
    I’ll start to worry about the NAM at 0z. At that point, all the anecoctal, weather fan reasons to toss it become fewer. It will be an on hour run with the storm arriving within 24 hours. That’s usually where it’s considered good.
  20. Burghblizz
    Way different with low track. And mixing here means potential sig ice, not rain like in 1.19
  21. Burghblizz
    If we can avoid the frozen snow cone…and I think most will to a large degree…they really might want to consider adding “bowing and drifting” to the forecast Monday. Could be 30 MPH winds with snow showers and a lot of snow on the ground.
  22. Burghblizz
    I wouldn’t worry about the exact orientation of pink and blue. I think that’s a 2” hour.
  23. Burghblizz
    I think this is why we all do well - but it’s like 5” to 12” well, as opposed to a nice tight range. Where it’s ripping it will be ripping. Where it’s not, it might be a light mix for while, which will further hold totals down. So any prolonged period with that gets you behind the game. So a deeper storm hurts - because of the warm air aloft. But it also can HELP with dynamic cooling.
  24. Burghblizz
    When the bad outlier for PIT is 7”, I’ll take it. It does really show the worst case scenario though for Fayette and Westmoreland (talking NAM)
  25. Burghblizz
    It’s good if you want to see if a you have some good rates in the next few hours - but I wouldn’t look at totals 30 hours before the storm.
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