Festus

Yep. CTP southeast counties just added.

WWA issued for Berks and Chester counties down this way. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 2 inches, with local amounts up to 3 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania.

All this long range eye candy is making me giddy. Since it takes a little over a month for air to traverse the globe, maybe the southern storm can come back around a little more tucked next month. Now we just need to lobby for a 768 GFS panel. And how does Accuweather manage those daily forecasts 3 months out anyway? Calling for a little rain on Easter Sunday (April 17th). Bummer. But at least the high will be 66.

Thackara just forecasted 2 - 3" for York and Lancaster and less N & W based on "updated guidance". Therefore, max will be a coating lol.

Well this sucks. No model showing anything. Anyone have access to the GRAPES model (Chinese)? That's gotta show a MECS to at least induce some panic.

Agree on early January and cold leading up to event so no surface temp or sun angle shenanigans. Would need some kind of bomb and stall or crawl scenario. At least 60 - 72 hour duration. Thundersnow in the evening for max effect (Cantore doing live feed and chasing the lightning would be icing on the cake). Also agree on not too much wind as power outages not cool. 30 - 40" for most. Want to get right on the edge but not risk structural collapse. Probably pressing that a bit at 3' though. So max snow but minimal damage to life and property.

As we debate the various X-ECS, riddle me this. If you could design the perfect winter storm for PA, how would it evolve, what features would be where and when, etc. Must use parameters that are in the realm of possibility.

The literal "in my backyard" pic. Sure hope most of you folks are a little whiter. And what's up with Wednesday night? All of a sudden I have a Snow Likely in my grid forecast.

39/37 with grass showing through and some spots bare already. With DP above freezing, my "snow pack" is on life support. Meh, next.

Just started.

26/15 here. Blue on the radar and the sky has "the look" but flakeless so far.

Yup. Definite downgrade for those a few counties deep west of the river. And my grid forecast says gusts to 50 on Monday. Wind Advisory lurking. A chance of rain and snow before 4pm, then a slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Breezy, with a south wind 9 to 14 mph becoming west 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thanks. Very interesting and enlightening. WAY back when (we're talking the Barry Walton era), I was a Meteorology major at Millersville but alas, I switched to Physics and and moved on from there. But I've always retained weather as a hobby and have the upmost respect for those who practice the craft in the real world. Your outputs can effect and in many cases save people's lives. Thanks for your work. It is much appreciated!

I think the "official" measurement will be over but it will be so squished and watered down by Monday morning the it will look like 1" tops. And that's what the non-weenies will say happened and harass the mets for busting.

Quick question - when you analyze a complex storm like this and have to nail down an exact forecast, what's the mechanism? Do you just blend model output or factor in some forecasting experience that no model can reproduce? If the latter, what's the relative weighting? Just curious how it works in your world. Thanks!

2" -4" in my grid forecast. Guessing the consolation prize of a WWA forthcoming sometime this afternoon. Certainly not commensurate with the amount of time I spent on these boards the last week lol.

York now added to the WSW. Kudos to whoever said the river would be the dividing line.

If the winds verify, that's going to be as big or bigger story here. I haven't gusted north of 60 in a long time.

Looks like the blue / grey line bisects my house. Hopefully the 3" is on the driveway side so I have less to shovel.

That gradient between the have's and have nots is pretty sick. With features still roughly 2000 miles away, +/- 25 miles around here will have huge implications.

Thanks for bringing us back from the abyss, And thanks for the PBP.

Today's runs should be interesting as associated features now onshore. Wouldn't be surprised to see better consensus as data improves.

Just posted by psuHoffman in MA. One of a handful of posters there who I pay attention to: I think we’re still in the game for a very significant storm but I don’t think this has HECS 20”+ potential for 95. I don’t think anyone is expecting that. We have a -NAO but not a true block. 95 really does need a classic block usually to get those storms. Also what’s going on across Canada isn’t ideal for those hecs storms. The trough amplifying there will pull this north. To get a hecs we typically want the storm cut off from the NS there and higher pressure over the top. That’s when we get a storm to crawl to off the Delmarva then slide ENE. This is going to lift north pretty sharply. This will be a storm that runs the coast. Kinda old school, these used to be way more common than recently. And they can be pretty good but not 20” good in DC usually. The key will be how far southeast we can get the H5 before it gets captured and lifts north and how much resistance the cold can make to get a really nice WAA thump. Any deform is bonus. The 2014 storm was this type. One of the 1987 storms was and worked out to like 10” in DC. There was a similar storm to this evolution in 66 that was good in DC. There are also examples where this can go wrong if the h5 gets captured too soon. That’s why faster is better. Get it into the southeast before the trough amplified and it lifts. There were 2 storms in 1994 that remind me of this also. Early January and one in early March. Those were more ehh with like 2-4 in DC and a lot more west.

Thakara says weekend storm whiff to the south so we still have a chance (probably right though).

Wind Chill Advisory issued for NE PA for early Tuesday AM. Gotta think we'll have wind chill below 0 here for a time.