Festus

Posted by one of the mets in the MA forum. I vote let's just go with this and close the thread from further discussion.

A lot of you guys are very impressive in terms of weather prediction skills. And I'd imagine most are self taught which is even more impressive. I did 2 years of Meteorology at Millersville before switching majors (Barry Walton era - yikes) and we would draw isobars and isotherms by hand (double yikes). Always interested in weather but some of you really take it to the next level. And yes, a meeting would be fantastic.

Crazy reading the last page or 2 how close so many of us are geographically yet experience such different results this time of year. Whenever covid eases, we should have a gathering. I can only imagine how different most of us are in person versus how we are perceived on this board.

York and Lancaster WSW version - WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...York and Lancaster Counties.

There's been a lot of understandable frustration with models this winter but just realize what what they are up against...ridiculously complex thermo and fluid atmospheric dynamics coupled with inadequate sampling. Then trying to pinpoint individual feature days in advance from features hundreds if not thousands of miles away. I think it's a miracle they even get close.

WWA was updated down this way from this morning's 2 - 3" to: 208 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of south central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday.

Light snow, temp 33, roads wet. Meh.

Winter Storm Watch issued by LWX for Maryland Mason-Dixon border counties and Chester county on east.

At least we don't have to chase models anymore now that we have the groundhog forecast coming out. That was exhausting.

Man that's crazy. It is pounding here. We're gonna see some weird storm totals from this one.

I think central and eastern Lanco getting some scraps from that and it's not too shabby. I'm back to under 1/2 mile at the moment.

Looks like the bands of doom are approaching Reading dropping SW. If those hold together...holy moly.

Just heard from Eli Stolzfus down the street. He said "it's makin' dawn naw!" Visibility 1/4 mile here.

Silence finally! No more sleet pounding against the house. Pivot axis SE of PHL and filling a bit. Plenty o' duration to go.

Seeing some shredded flakes mixed in (perhaps a new breakfast idea). Appears changeover is imminent here. Glad I did not shovel yet. Don't want all this crap on the bottom.

Tweet - "Coming up on Noontime, and the 3rd Act is beginning! There's still a bit of warm air aloft (causing sleet), but this layer will cool as heavier precip develops the next few hours. Travel conditions will deteriorate quickly this afternoon, so it would be prudent to get home soon!"

Dammit. Now I need to revise my MDT guess for the contest i'm not in. Is it acceptable to just go with the Roger at 8 - 50"? Seriously, I cannot imagine being an NWS met with this one where your forecasts have so much impact one way or the other.

Latest CTP AFD (is it too late to enter the MDT snowfall contest?): A long duration winter storm will continue to impact central PA through Monday night. We will transition from phase 1 of the storm to phase 2 as the primary sfc low weakens over the OH Valley tonight and energy transfers to a strengthening coastal low offshore the Delmarva/NJ. Hires models particularly the HREF/HRRR are showing dry slot penetrating into the lower Susquehanna Valley after midnight, and in response we expect snow to change to or mix with sleet and freezing rain into early Monday morning. The gradient between deepening coastal low and high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will result in an anomalous easterly flow focused into eastern PA. Expect wintry mix to transition back to snow by midday Monday with increasing snow rates through Monday afternoon. 12Z HREF was not that bullish for >1"/hr rates showing highest probs running along the CWA border btwn BGM and CTP. Models continue to show fgen band setting up in the deformation zone and pivoting over east-central into northeast PA Monday evening and into Monday night. The key takeaway for the dayshift cycle was an overall reduction in storm total snowfall supported by the HREF mean/extended range 12/18Z HRRR and backed by a WPC/NBM blend, with a shift in max snowfall amounts (10-15+" range) toward the Poconos/NEPA. Local CWA max is in Sullivan County pushing 1.5 feet/18 inches. There could be some changes in the Monday night period as model spread increases with the orientation and intensity of pivoting fgen/deformation band. We were keen to place the highest POPs and heaviest snowfall over the NE zones. As the coastal low deepens, gusty northerly winds are expected over the far eastern parts of the area with max gusts in the 30-35 mph range early Monday.

Just the finest of flakes visible here. DP 14 but improvement over the 9 it was an hour ago.

Hmmm...your snow map in the MA thread has MDT in the 8 - 15" zone with local to 18". Maybe some insider knowledge on the "local to 18"?

Just a reminder - Top 10 all time for Lancaster (Millersville): 1. January 7-8, 1996 — 30" 2. January 22-23, 2016 -- 26.7" 3. February 11-12, 1983 — 24" 4. February 16-17, 2003 — 24" 5. February 5-6, 2010 — 24" 6. February 15-16, 1958 — 20" 7. February 9-10, 2010 — 19" 8. March 13-14, 1993 – 18” 9. March 20-21, 2018 - 17.5" 10. (tie) January 16, 1945 - 17" 10. (tie) February 3-4, 1961 - 17"

5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: No need, check official forecast, they did it for me. Can somebody tell me how Temiskaming Shores (pop 50) gets onto a map and Chicago doesn't? Seriously, I can certainly see how actual amounts will be in the 6-12 inch range but my forecast is based on GEM being best available modelling, have been tracking events in Europe for forecasting that I do, and GEM has been quite reliable all winter when GFS and ECM are not in agreement, when they are in agreement I tend to take that blend and just check GEM for possible deviations -- what's interesting, and this may answer a question asked in the thread by Stormtracker IIRC, what the Canadian model may be picking up is the setting up of blocking from the fairly strong trailing wave that formed in the wake of the Tuesday s.e. VA developing low that then exploded to 952 mbs south of Newfoundland, then was followed by developing low -- also developments over Greenland and Europe are slowly building towards a major blocking episode, GEM seems to have done better with this and I noticed today's ECM 12z run has backed off a very progressive 00z solution in Europe towards at least 50% of the cold advection for Britain and Ireland suggested on GFS and GEM. My forecast scenario could also go wrong if the retrograde loop is further north than GEM shows. This would shift the 24-30 inch outcomes into east central PA entirely, and would probably result in 50-60 per cent validation rates on my amounts for BWI and DCA, IAD. Anyway all my forecast really says is that I feel the RGEM has the best call on development. We'll find out on Monday. Lifted from the MA forum. Wasn't the GEM the one with those scary gray colors usually not seen outside of Buffalo during an epic lake effect event?

Warning issued from LWX for PA border counties. 6 - 12" with 0.1" of ice.

And for the record, the Weather Channel storm name is Orlena which means "golden".