jaxjagman

I'd think so if the CFS is right

lEastern Pac,should see NINA peak soon as the warmer SST'S build out west with upwelling in the east cools

SOI is still rather strong today.This should strenghten the Walker Circulation,generally this puts HP in the Eastern Pac in time Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 26 Dec 2021 1012.82 1000.10 46.71 11.43 10.90 25 Dec 2021 1015.80 1003.15 46.34 10.90 10.65 24 Dec 2021 1014.85 1005.50 29.22 10.18 10.14 23 Dec 2021 1011.50 1006.15 8.46 9.60 9.63 22 Dec 2021 1009.09 1007.85 -12.87 9.60 9.34 21 Dec 2021 1009.99 1011.50 -27.14 10.36 9.37 20 Dec 2021 1011.33 1009.50 -9.81 11.50 9.67

Lock this thread up please

After 4-years of the last one, time for another thread to get going

Ok,we will keep it then,might wotk out better that way or we'd have to start a thread for the next season at the start of one,if that makes since

Fixing to start a new Severe thread but was thinking of letting the ENSO thread slip slide away since there is already a thread on the main page,we can post ENSO in the seasonals,see what yall think?

If no one else does it work on it later today

I remember the big snow when we first moved here was on Christmas day in Lawrenceburg we got around 10" and another storm dumped about 2-4" after that a couple days later,i was so excited to see snow after living in Jacksonville,Fl where we rarely seen snow ever then after that the dreaded snow dome came upon us

We hit 75 today,missed the record of 76 in 2016.Bah humbug !!

It STILL seems possible the Euro is going to be wrong with the MJO from destructive interference from KW

John made a good point a couple days ago this don't seem like a typical NINA.Believe that Aleutian high has been stronger than past Ninas causing some area out west for the heights to fall when they should actually rise

Yes that Aleutian High is resiilient

Dunno,i'd like to see the GEFS side with the GFS.But they are complete opposite.So this could be a death ridge just as well

It should help with a pattern change upcoming,to what extent i have no clue

Tried to find a decent map,but here is one

Yeah this causes the Walker Circulation to strenghten,and causes upwelling in the Eastern Pac,basically you can see the waters cooling now in the east to the surface

WOW !! @ THE SOI 25 Dec 2021 1015.80 1003.15 46.34 10.90 10.65 24 Dec 2021 1014.85 1005.50 29.22 10.18 10.14 23 Dec 2021 1011.50 1006.15 8.46 9.60 9.63 22 Dec 2021 1009.09 1007.85 -12.87 9.60 9.34 21 Dec 2021 1009.99 1011.50 -27.14 10.36 9.37 20 Dec 2021 1011.33 1009.50 -9.81 11.50 9.67

Yeah,kicks the Aleutian "H" out and a +ve PNA for a change,but to far out to believe.Even if it does work out probably just transient,but who knows.SPV is shown to be getting attacked as well

Doing ok,had a stroke in my left eye,hard to read but its getting better,docs said it will take months to heal,other that everything is ok.,hope all is well with you

for a brief time it went NINO back to NINA again

I wish Alan Huffman still had his ENSO models,but ii'm not sure its that far off,with a ridge into Western AK into the Aleutians EUTIAEUTIAN

Pretty impressive FWIW Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 24 Dec 2021 1014.85 1005.50 29.22 10.18 10.14 23 Dec 2021 1011.50 1006.15 8.46 9.60 9.63 22 Dec 2021 1009.09 1007.85 -12.87 9.60 9.34 21 Dec 2021 1009.99 1011.50 -27.14 10.36 9.37 20 Dec 2021 1011.33 1009.50 -9.81 11.50 9.67

Thats really impressive for this time of year,big 588dm sending dp's into the low to mid 60's through out the Valley with potential for some spots getting close to 30+ AN temps

Didnt quite work out,just some wind