jaxjagman

IInverted trough it doesnt seem stacked ATM

That is wild

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=ir

I bet John will get hammered and like Nashville said some possible thundersnow possibly,along the lower flank of the trowel along the upslopes

NINA could die off quickly it seems.Much as i kicked the 2011'-2012,the equatorial is looking quite similar,just a few weeks ahead,we could have a active severe spring seemingly right now Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 15 Jan 2022 1007.03 1007.60 -24.40 3.32 7.51 14 Jan 2022 1008.50 1005.95 -9.70 4.71 8.00 13 Jan 2022 1011.05 1005.35 5.14 5.64 8.43 12 Jan 2022 1013.14 1008.60 -0.32 6.01 8.61 11 Jan 2022 1011.99 1008.45 -5.04 6.46 8.80 10 Jan 2022 1007.84 1008.35 -24.11 7.04 9.02 9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43

One thing to look at the NAM right now seems to be the strongest with the 850 low,gfs is behind that and the HRR is the weaker,thus you'd also have a weaker WAA into parts of the Valley with the weakest but who knows right now

We also had HP nosing down from the NW,that's big

No.the deformation zone was around our area and not to the south.I remember putting my pointer around NE Williamson County it showed us getting 9".,think we got around 7-8",it didnt shpw much of anything to the south

That could be a Icemeggedon..lol

Must have misunderstood them ? https://x-default-stgec.uplynk.com/ausw/slices/ee7/9ca48a3b38ef42538c6fe52a659b1e99/ee7285d0e2154bcdb24834083b254559/ee7285d0e2154bcdb24834083b254559_e.mp4

Alabama should have beaten Auburn.Auburn quite a bit puts the gas pedal down at times then it's like they get over confident and blows it.We have a good team no doubt but how good are we?I haven't a clue yet

Looks more or less tilted,its why you see all these wild jumps here to there.Models are having a hard time trying to pin point where the actual low is going to be

No way that clown map of the GFS is right here,to much WAA,that is not all snow in Mid Tn

National Weather Service Nashville TN 222 PM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 .DISCUSSION... Beautiful mild mid-January day across Middle Tennessee today with clear skies, occasionally gusty southwest winds and current temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s. Continue mild weather is expected tonight into tomorrow with lows only dropping into the 30s and highs on Thursday once again in the upper 40s and 50s. A fast-moving clipper system will race across the area Thursday afternoon and early evening, and although low levels will be fairly dry a few light rain showers are possible - mainly in our northeast counties - which could briefly end as light snow showers. Temperatures will cool down a bit behind this system with lows falling into the upper 20s to low 30s Friday morning, and highs topping out in the 40s on Friday afternoon. This weekend continues to be a forecasting nightmare as 12Z model suite indicates a closed upper low pressure system takes an unusual U-shaped path from the Plains across the Gulf Coast states then up the East Coast, bringing a long duration precipitation event to Middle Tennessee from Saturday into Sunday. Exactly where this upper low and its associated surface features track has major implications on whether we will see wintry weather across Middle Tennessee. In general, models indicate strong WAA ahead of the upper low will keep mild air in place most of Saturday, with precip staying as mostly rain, before the atmosphere cools at all levels Saturday night and Sunday as the low moves near then east of our forecast area, leading to a mix of rain and snow with a changeover to all snow before precipitation ends. GFS continues to be further north with its track versus the ECMWF, and thus has a rainier solution than the more wintry Euro. Very difficult to pinpoint potential snow amounts due to these track differences, but overall currently appears our western and northern counties have a better chance to see some accumulating snowfall with this system while our southern and eastern areas have a lower chance. Forecast soundings indicate this will mainly be a rain or snow event, although some sleet is possible albeit more unlikely. WPC and model liquid QPF totals range from 0.5 to over 1.5 inches with this event, suggesting parts of the area could see another significant snowfall - which would be our third this month if it occurs. Hopefully the models come into better agreement over the next couple of days for sanity`s sake. After this system, dry and colder weather makes a return for the first part of next week.

Nina getting or gonna hit with everything,ER,KW,MJO.Warming in the east,cooling in the west.

Long range the CFS continues to show the MJO starts to stenghten into the IO or Maritime towards the end of Jan into Feb,CFS has ben showing this for awhile it seems but it also shows a a decent KW which would seemingly be nothing but destructive interference but it does show it start to strengten the signal into a favorable patten into Feb..take it with a grain of salt right now

Seemingly we could have a warm up tho after this and another cool down right after with the Aleutiam High building in for a brief time as the MJO more or less retrogrades back into the WP maybe and loses it signals and hovers towards the COD/Map is the extratropics which seems to fit well with the RMM+1 into phase 8 MJO upcoming long range pattern shown by the models

6" so far,no complaints here

Just started

Nice should be here in min then

Still alot of precip in Ark

National Weather Service Nashville TN 155 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 .DISCUSSION... Today`s temperatures have rebounded to slightly warmer than normal levels, in the upper 40s and lower 50s with breezy winds. This is occurring ahead of an initially dry frontal passage this afternoon that will help set us up for wintry wx tomorrow. Lows tonight are expected to drop into the 20s areawide. By daybreak Thursday, a strong and intensifying H5 jet streak is forecast to be racing from the Central Plains toward Tennessee. At the same time, a surface low pressure area is expected to form across southern MS that will track northeastward along the Arctic front through central AL/GA into the Carolinas. Strong lift associated with both features atop the Arctic airmass will create widespread precipitation that will spread into Middle Tennessee starting around 10Z Thursday, covering the whole area by midday before quickly exiting during the afternoon as the surface low and upper shortwave depart. Forecast soundings from all available models continue to indicate all snow throughout the event along and north of I-40. South of I-40 and especially in the counties near the Alabama border, some forecast soundings (NAM, HRRR, SREF) show a warm nose at the onset of precip Thursday morning that will erode as precipitation spreads and cold advection increases. We think the cold air will win out with mostly low impacts from freezing rain and sleet. However, these warm nose situations often complicate our winter forecasts, so people in our southern counties should be prepared for the potential of at least some glaze development. Because of the mixed precip type, our southern counties should see the lowest snow totals with around 1 to possibly 2 inches. Along and north of I-40, we continue to forecast about 3 inches of snow. However, 12Z models have shown a substantial increase in qpf. This could translate to snow amounts pushing over 4 to maybe 6 inches for areas along and north of I-40 and this would require a Winter Storm Warning. Our reason for keeping the advisory in place is the sudden jump in model qpf. We would like to view updated model information this evening to see consistency before pushing these higher amounts. Since we are already pushing the upper bounds of advisory criteria, it is quite possible our evening or overnight crews may decide to issue a warning for parts of even much of our area with higher snowfall totals if models maintain support for it. Once snow gets going, temperatures will stay below freezing throughout the day on Thursday, with lows falling into the teens and single digits by Friday morning. Whatever ice/snow that falls will easily accumulate on roads and create hazardous travel conditions as we go through the day on Thursday and especially Thursday night into Friday morning. Although some sunshine is expected Friday, temperatures will struggle to climb beyond the 20s. lows Friday night will be very cold again, in the teens. An upper level ridge will build up quickly for Saturday with highs in the 40s. This is a little lower than previous forecasts and guidance since we expect a good deal of snow to be on the ground, holding back temp rises. The warm advection will continue Saturday night into Sunday, but the pattern will also bring moisture, meaning widespread rain showers. Another front will swing across the area Sunday evening. A brief flurry could occur as the cold front chases out the rain showers, but no accumulating snow. After this system, a return to cold, dry weather is expected for at least the first half of next week.

CF is closing in into MiD Tn