jaxjagman

yeah that convective band has held firm,we should be closing in on 2 in now already

man,the winds are howling with sideways blowing snow,this is so cool..lol

You're in the sweet spot for sure

ripping by my house http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201173a.htm

http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201044.htm Nice

Nice,loop this you can see it https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES-E&initsattype=swir&initcscheme=ir1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=555&initrange=38.000:-93.250:32.500:-80.750&initloop=True&initnframes=20&initlightningge=On&initlightninggw=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off

Help of a KW and MJO,we've got a +TNI right now

MJO looks like it could possibly strenghten into the IO/Maritime the next several days.Euro shows a upper level ridge into East Asia around this time next weekend followed by a trough into East Asia.Possibly a time frame to watch i believe around the 3rd week of March.

Models are hinting at a decent Upper Level Ridge into the 2nd week of March around the Mid Atlantic along with a Caribbean HIGH,we could see some strong storms upcoming along with some potential hydro probs down the road if the models dont back down

Subsurface is cooling east of the IDL,Resilient NINA going on right now.Lots of the seasonals keep NINA going on into summer.This along with could potentially be a active Hurricane Season it seems right now and possibly Severe.CFS shows a KW moving across East of the IDL the next few days.Still think the best analog year from the past decades is 2012,but into Met spring it was starting to warm in the east,not like right now.See what it looks like in the several days.

Little more convection shown this afternoon,most of us should see a fllood watch it seems right now < Day 2 Outlook WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point Updated: 2027 UTC Sun Feb 20, 2022 Valid: 12 UTC Feb 22, 2022 - 12 UTC Feb 23, 2022 Forecast Discussion Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 340 PM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 22 2022 - 12Z Wed Feb 23 2022 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys... Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across Missouri/Arkansas into the Lower Ohio Valley at the start of the period, ahead of a shortwave trough tracking from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest. While instability is expected to be weak across the region Tuesday morning, standardized precipitable water (PW) anomalies of +3 will be present along with confluent 850 mb flow of 40-60 kt. Areas of WSW to ENE training are likely early in the period with rainfall totals of 1-2 inches in an hour atop a region of the nation that has high soil moisture values (over 90th percentiles for 10-40 cm depth) and low flash flood guidance values. Weakening of forcing and moisture values through 00Z Wednesday should transition the event to more of a longer duration and less intense rainfall for the latter half of the outlook period. Model guidance was mixed with placement, but the 12Z NAM appeared too heavy and north with its axis of QPF. Better deterministic and ensemble placement for 2-4 inches of rain was located closer to the Ohio River, with magnitude of rainfall and probabilities lowering with eastward extent into Ohio, West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania. However, flash flood guidance values of only 1-2 inches in 3 and 6 hours was present across the central Appalachians, and these values might be exceeded despite the lower rainfall intensity later in the period. ...Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys... As a surface low tracks northeastward from the Midwest into New England Tuesday/Tuesday night, a southwestward trailing cold front will extend across the Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Plains. Moisture return ahead of the cold front combined with daytime heating should allow for increasing instability from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama. Southwest to northeast oriented convergence, parallel to the deeper-layer mean flow, will be in place across the southern U.S. which should support an axis of training convection, mainly from 21Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches in an hour are likely given the moisture and instability in place, and training could support 2-4 inches of rain. Model agreement on this axis was good on its occurrence but not as good with placement. Therefore, the existing Slight Risk area inherited from continuity was expanded a bit into southwestern Tennessee and northeastern Mississippi, in accord with the latest model spread. With the increasing signal for 3-4+ inches, there may be a need to upgrade to a Moderate Risk as the event gets closer, but confidence in its placement is too low at this time. Otto

lol..i was directing that to me for my post last evening,its all good

Shouldnt have said winter was over,i really dont know that,especially the higher elevations.But when in see ridging building in Korea that generally means the same here,models are hinting at that into the first week of March. CFS seems to have some destructive interfernce with the MJO signal and shows it moving further east and fast.But this seems to be by a KW moving into that region which it is showing.I think you are more right the MJO looks to be in the WP

Yeah downtown Franklin might be under water,we will see.Euro seemed tohave back down somewhat this afternoon

Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 516 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 ...Flooding Possible Washingtons Birthday through Friday... Moderate to heavy rainfall will impact Middle Tennessee Washingtons Birthday through Friday afternoon as two distinct weather systems move across mid state region. As of this time, total rainfall amounts will range from around 3 inches southwest to approaching 6 inches northwest through Friday afternoon. Currently corridor of heaviest rainfall amounts look to be across northern portions of mid state region as Tuesday progresses. There may be a brief lull in rainfall on Wednesday. However, another round of heavy rainfall is expected to arrive Wednesday Night and last through at least Thursday night, with heaviest rainfall amounts expected Thursday night. Soil moisture continues to remain relative high especially across northern portions of mid state region. Due to this rainfall potentially causing additional rises on rivers, several rivers across area could reach action if not flood stage as week progresses. Flash flooding could also be possible across mid state region. While the exact location of higher rainfall amounts not yet totally certain, it is imperative that if you have interest near areas that are known to flood, that you pay close attention to rainfall forecasts over the upcoming week. Updated information concerning this rainfall event will be provided during morning hours on Washingtons Birthday.

Long range models did a decent job somewhat with the Subtropical ridge it seems.Question still looms what convection comes it,severe if any also.IMO winter is over after the trough going through East Asia today.There seemingly will be a SER setting up for us in the long range

Auburn lost again,i'm still not convinced they are the team to beat in the SEC.Problem with Auburn is they don't have a great PG.There PG's are not consistent.,make stupid passes and to me anyways are like ball hawks going to the basket.Fun team to watch for sure,but elite enough to win it all?I dont think they are unless Pearl can fix them. I still think if Ky can heal there troops.They might go further in the tourney than any SEC team right now.Calipari always brings out his best when it counts.JMO

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, and Southeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Phasing of a northern-stream upper trough crossing central Canada and the north-central U.S. with a southern-stream trough crossing the southern Rockies/southern Plains will occur Thursday, with eastward progression of the consolidating feature expected. This system will be characterized by very strong deep-layer flow on its southeast flank, across the south central into the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a deepening low is progged to be shifting eastward out of Oklahoma across the northern Arkansas/far southern Missouri region through the day, and then northeastward along the Ohio Valley into the evening hours. A broad, moistening warm sector will exist across the Mid South and Southeast, until a cold front, advancing eastward with time, ushers in colder/drier air. This front is expected to reach the Mississippi Delta region during the afternoon, the Appalachian crest overnight, and then extend from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Florida Panhandle by 18/12Z. ...Arklatex region eastward across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast region... Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period from southeastern Kansas southward to eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas and into northeastern Texas at the start of the period, near and ahead of the advancing surface low/cold front. Meanwhile, largely elevated, warm advection-induced convection will extend northeastward across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and vicinity. While meager CAPE is expected early in the period, strong flow aloft suggests that locally damaging wind gusts will be a possibility from the Arklatex region eastward toward the Mississippi Delta area through mid afternoon. With time, deepening of the low and associated strengthening of low-level southerlies will allow persistent northward theta-e advection to combine with modest/local diurnal warming, eventually yielding evolution of mixed-layer CAPE up to about 500 J/kg. Across Kentucky and areas north, a cool boundary layer should persist, resulting in slightly stable conditions beneath evolving, modest instability. However, this thermodynamic concern is partially offset by stronger ascent aloft spreading across this region -- along with the deepening low expected to track along roughly the Ohio River through late afternoon and into the evening. With this ascent likely to maintain partially forced convection, and given exceptionally strong/veering flow with height across this region, potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remains a possibility. Farther south, greater low-level theta-e advection suggests that the boundary layer will become at least neutral, and therefore greater certainty of surface- or near-surface-based storms exists -- both near the advancing cold front, and also with associated warm advection-driven bands of convection in the free warm sector. As noted above, very strong shear -- with south-southwesterly 850 mb winds in excess of 50 to 60 kt increasing to west-southwesterly at 70 to 90 kt at mid levels -- is suggestive of supercells, and attendant risk for damaging winds and several -- and possibly locally strong/damaging -- tornadoes. As such, an upgrade to enhanced risk is being introduced, centered across the Tennessee Valley area from late afternoon through the evening hours. ..Goss.. 02/16/2022

Someone is going to get dumped on if the long range models are right.Mid Level ridge around the Caribbean and Upper Level Ridge around the MId Atllantic.No clue about severet but hydro would suggest with this pattern some serious flood potential somewhere

CIPS best analog for the upcoming days looks better in the East 3-6-92,mainly wind it seems right now.That was freaking nuts in Cen Fl March of 92 https://www.weather.gov/media/mlb/surveys/record_hailstorms.pdf

Maybe yall will do something and see a bit more,our dp's show alot of dry air so what the radar shows is nothing but virga mostly

we got some flakes flying around,its 29 now around here

Early March of 2012 had a outbreak,if it happens again who know https://www.weather.gov/meg/march2_2012_severe_event

I still believe the best analog year is NINA of 2011-2012 for us in the Valley,plus it matches up well with the ENSO.