jaxjagman

Wed looks better,not sure what kind of moisture we get.Euro shows some VBV,see what happens the next model runs

My trash can started to tumble down the road about a hour ago,sure hope we keep power

Usually ours come in the form of smaller clusters or MCS,like you mentiomed.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...EASTERN ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. All severe hazards are possible, including widespread damaging winds, some over 75 mph, and several tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will eject from the southern Plains across the lower/mid MS Valley on Wednesday while acquiring a negative tilt. An 80-100+ kt south-southwesterly mid-level jet will accompany the shortwave trough passage. Low-level southerly flow is also expected to be very strong, with 50-70+ kt winds forecast at 850 mb. The primary surface low should be located over IA at the start of the period, with a cold front extending southward from this low across the central/southern Plains. A secondary surface low in closer proximity to the shortwave trough is forecast to develop from eastern OK to the Mid-South vicinity by Wednesday evening. At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are expected to return northward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the secondary surface low, with the surface warm sector becoming increasingly pinched off with northward extent into the mid MS and OH Valleys. With strong forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector through the day, thunderstorms will develop and move east-northeastward ahead of the cold front while posing a threat for both widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... A line of convection aided by strong low-level warm advection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the Ozarks southward across AR to east TX. This activity should continue to pose a threat for at least isolated damaging winds and tornadoes as it moves eastward Wednesday morning. Fairly widespread cloud cover ahead of the line and modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of destabilization to some extent. Still, the increasing low-level moisture in tandem with filtered diurnal heating are expected to aid in sufficient boundary-layer destabilization to support surface-based storms. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should develop ahead of the line across LA into MS and surrounding areas by early Wednesday afternoon. This QLCS should strengthen Wednesday afternoon as it moves across northeastern LA, eastern AR, southeastern MO, and into much of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Aided by strengthening low/mid-level flow, increasing low-level and deep-layer shear will both become very strong, supporting updraft organization. With a primarily linear storm mode expected, widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely. The presence of a 50-70+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and even stronger flow up to 75 kt at 700 mb, should enhance the prospects for significant severe wind gusts of 75+ mph at the surface within the most intense portions of the line Wednesday afternoon and evening. Very favorable low-level shear and elongated/sickle-shaped hodographs in the boundary layer will likely also support low-level rotation with embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS. Several tornadoes should occur across the lower MS Valley and Southeast in this regime, with circulations moving quickly east-northeastward. The potential for supercells to develop ahead of the line, or perhaps embedded within the line with southward extent, remains unclear. Any cells that can form ahead of the line would be favored to produce tornadoes, but the quick eastward progression of the QCLS may limit this possibility. Still, some guidance suggests the southern part of the line may become more broken with time Wednesday afternoon/evening. If this occurs, then a threat for embedded supercells capable of producing multiple strong (EF2+) tornadoes would exist. At this point, the greatest tornado potential may focus along southern portions of the line in MS/AL where a semi-discrete mode seems more plausible. Regardless, a continued threat for both damaging winds and tornadoes will likely persist Wednesday evening and overnight as convection spreads from the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Deep South. Thunderstorms should eventually weaken with eastward extent early Thursday morning as they outpace the low-level moisture return and encounter a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... Less low-level moisture and weaker instability are forecast across the mid MS Valley and OH Valley compared to locations farther south. However, enough boundary-layer instability should be present for the line of storms to produce scattered to perhaps numerous damaging winds as it moves eastward given the strength of the low-level flow. A few tornadoes may also occur with favorable low-level shear also present. The lack of stronger instability precludes greater severe probabilities across this region at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/29/2022

STJ kicks in Wed.,system is more progressive than what the models showed in the past.No problem it seems with wind shear and helicity.See what the models shou the next few runs.Looks more diurnal driven either way for us with a wind advisory Wed

MJO and KW shouldn't have a problem upwelling those warm SST'S just beneath the surface.Should see a decent spike and warming in 1+2 upcoming the next few days.Guess the question would be is what happens afterwards?Certainly thought Nina was on life support several weeks ago

Yeah have to wait a couple days and see what kind of instability we get.Wind shear turns SW on Wed and a decent LLJ showing especially by the Euro.It's still 5-6 days away so much can change

Nina is hanging tough.2012 was looking like a good analog year but not so much now,Equatorial ocean heat temp anoms which rose to positive have gone negative once again the last few days.So it's acting more like a resurgent NINA.2012 on March 15th set many records and the month of March set many more with a +AO/NAO

Not really sure how much we got.The winds seemed to blow the snow around off roofs,trees,etc.,etc. ...TENNESSEE... LA FOLLETTE 10.6 ARTHUR 10.0 CARYVILLE 8.0 HOWARD QUARTER 3 WNW 7.5 KINGSTON 6.0 KNOXVILLE 4 ENE 6.0 GERMANTOWN 3 NNW 5.5 ARLINGTON 5.0 FRANKLIN 4 W 5.0 MADISONVILLE 5.0 NASHVILLE 5.0 MIDTOWN MEMPHIS 4.8 LUTTRELL 4.5 MEMPHIS 4.0 PULASKI 4.0 SODDY-DAISY 7 NW 4.0 FAUST 5 NNE 3.8 WATERVILLE 1 NNE 3.0 The rapidly intensifying low is forecast to quickly lift into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. An additional 2 to local 4 inches of snowfall is anticipated from New England through the interior Northeast, before the snow activity wanes tomorrow morning. In the wake of the strong front, record breaking low temperatures are expected over the Southeast tonight, before the airmass moderates to begin the work week. The next Storm Summary will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center at 1000 AM EST. Please refer to your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this event. Asherman https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html?fbclid=IwAR1Od607PslFpgWF6QqhyYa7LWJ-GqDZmQupGFPTJrK9BXS6L3UC5cRaXWU

Euro shows a trough moving through East Asia around the end of the work week.Sure looks like a period to watch for,least right now

MJO coming off Africa today as well as a KW is going to strenghten the MJO signal into the IO the next few days.Pretty strong signals for severe upcoming towards equinox spring

Never a snow storm without you bro

Good luck to you guys i Yeah look at the radar,i can see why.lol..im jealous but we had the best winter in over a decade so yall enjoy

Thst so weird,sure we got close to 5 here http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201044.htm

http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201173a.htm

the band fixing to come though looks better,we might have some heavy snow in a few min

yeah we are gettting the last burst it seems

24 here

You will,just look at those convective bands coming at you from the SW

Yall are fixing to get clocked in the east..lol

that convective line to our west is getting its act togethermwe might hit 6" if it does,up to about 3 now

Odd,we didnt have much of any mix here

Yup

Looks like another band is building in the west

should be on you