jaxjagman

Went to Brentwood HS,couplet fizzled out,just winds and a light show

Damn Volsmi'm pulling for you guys next week,Auburn is a dumpster fire,no hope for us

124 mph gust,Punta Gorda

Starting to think the lack of fireflies around here is more related to the development in Williamson Co.But we still have woods,but we also had a bigger deer population around here,even those are getting scarce but that has to do with development i am sure

Subsurface in the east ENSO has been cooling lately,not much left there.SOI the last couple weeks is acting like a NINA again.We did good last year here with snow into winter.We also did good in fall severe season if the Aleutian Low gets set up.Ready for winter

Can someone explain the lack of fire flies this year,its so odd.I usually go out on my deck at dusk and the bats are every where chasing them,i havent seen one bat this year.I had a fire fly land on my monitor the other night and i turned my lights off to watch it flash..lol.Just so weird not seeing them

Southern parts of South Korea is fixing to take a big hit by the models from the phooon.Tropical system in the east looks like a fish storm,OTS.I'm ok with that because like you mentioned it would be like starting the furnace up again for us,unusual quiet season tho this year in the tropics,more like a NINO year.So ready for fall !!

Other than the SOI not in sync right now and the warm east ENSO,we are about where we was in Dec last year with a pool of subsubsurface temps hitting -6c again.Get rid of that warm east ENSO, severe fall season might be something to watch again

Euro and GFS has a recurving phoon into the Sea of Japan possiibly but it just gets absorbed by a trough.Euro seems to show a mid level ridge building into the Central Plains today in the long range so the storm(tropical gen if it happens) it seems could just meander around the Bahamas for a couple days.There seems to be a trough going through East Asia the middle of the week,so that could be a player if the storm hits between Florida and the Carolinas or OTS.Least the weather got exciting to me anyways

We're getting the screw job here

Ever since when you posted this the standing wave popped up west of the IDL along with the strong EWB.The ENSO isn't acting like a typical ENSO.Think if the SPV can stay weak along with a more Modoki look like APEC shows it might not be that bad of a winter and not be a debbie downer,see the next update or two.Subsurface for right now is down to -5C east of the IDL again.Still a pretty healthy NINA with all the fake jabs it's put out to switch out

Parts of the NW Tn is in a extreme drought and around the Ozarks,rest of us is in a moderate.severe west of I-65 and in the south,just as bad around Chatty,Alabama/Tn line .We got some rain yesterday and early this morn but would have liked more.Boundary should lift northward around Sunday so maybe some training cells,anything is better than nothing.Brutal summer here and especially west of us

Been spoiled the last couple years,we haven't seen a heat wave like this in quite awhile.Yard was beautiful a couple weeks ago, not no mo.After the CF passes this week end,looks the same next week.Weird to say enjoy the lower 90's for a couple days,go outside when you can..lol

18/`9/4

Pretty strong MJO signal into the early parts of June into the WH/Africa along with a CCKW,should be a good shot to see some TG flaring up into the GOM,Caribbean possibly ,during this time

Wow !!

I'm gonna be disappointed if i can't see this tonight.Band of high clouds is moving in but should clear out ,but thunderstorms seems possible into the evening here.Maybe you guys in the east might have a better chance to see it. https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/usa/nashville?iso=20220516

Broke the record high today,was 90,hit 91

About split in half into fall.Equatorial has been warming lately. Tidbits seems to be doing better with the east.Couple weeks ago it was way to warm in 1+2 compared to CPC

Pretty boring severe season for us.Looks like it could get unsettled starting this weekend but other than that right now looks blah.CFS does have a Kelvin Wave moving through next week with troughs coming through East Asia along with the MJO could actually strenghten into the IO.Could see a bigger deal around next weekend

Make sure you are signed into twiiter then right click and hit the copy video URL

Best thunderstorm in awhile here in Brentwood right now.Even dropping some pea sized hail

Mis South looks pretty juicy Wed afternoon.TT'S 57-58.Already a 30% hatch for tornadoes Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely across a large portion of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Southeast on Wednesday. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible. Strong tornadoes may occur. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low will continue to eject eastward from the Plains across much of the MS Valley, Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday. A surface low is likewise expected to advance generally eastward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward Wednesday across much of the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast as well. ...Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Southeast... A substantial severe threat is evident for a large part of these regions ahead of the cold front. Pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the negatively tilted upper trough will likely overspread the warm sector through the day. 60s surface dewpoints will be present ahead of the front, with greater low-level moisture likely in place from the lower OH Valley/Mid-South into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Diurnal heating of this airmass and the continued presence of steepened lapse rates aloft should allow for moderate to strong instability to develop by Wednesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear generally in excess of 45-50 kt will support organized severe thunderstorms, and low-level shear is also forecast to be quite strong. Pre-frontal convection appears possible across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley vicinity through the day. If this occurs, then supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, would be likely. Linear convection is also expected to develop along much of the length of the front, and this activity will pose a threat for both damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes as it spreads eastward Wednesday afternoon and evening. Have opted to include a broad Enhanced Risk to account for numerous to potentially widespread damaging winds, and several tornadoes. The main uncertainty precluding greater severe probabilities at this time is the possible effect of early-day convection across the lower MS Valley/Mid-South on prospects for substantial destabilization later in the afternoon. Given the strong flow and sufficient instability forecast, at least an isolated severe threat should continue with eastward extent across the OH Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast Wednesday night. ..Gleason.. 04/11/2022

Either they were caught off guard or they are just plain stupid

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL...NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...FAR WESTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST TN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts and tornadoes are expected across a broad area from the Deep South into the southern Appalachians on Wednesday. The greatest risk area will encompass portions of central/northern Alabama into southeast Tennessee, far western North Carolina/South Carolina and northern Georgia. ...Deep South to the Southern Appalachians... A closed upper low and its attendant trough will deep and shift east from the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes/MS Valley on Wednesday. This will maintain deep-layer southwesterly flow across the Gulf Coast states into the Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a broad warm-advection regime ahead of the trough. A strong low-level jet around 40-50 kt will be somewhat more focused across parts of MS/AL into the Carolinas ahead of a strong surface cold front. This surface front is forecast to extend roughly from southeast MO into east-central TX Wednesday morning, while a warm front extends from the southern TN border into Upstate SC. The warm front should lift north into NC and possibly southern VA late in the period while the cold front sweeps eastward across the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast. A seasonally moist boundary layer will exist ahead of the surging cold front, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s across much of the southern/southeastern U.S. This will aid in moderate destabilization of a strongly sheared environment. Deep-layer flow largely parallel to the surface cold front will support linear convection, with another QLCS sweeping east across the southern U.S. likely. A swath of damaging gusts will accompany organized convection through the daytime across parts of MS/AL/TN/GA and into the southern Appalachians, the Carolinas and southern GA/northern FL during the evening/overnight. While damaging gusts appear the most likely hazard at this time, tornado potential will exist as well, both within the QLCS/mesovortices and in any semi-discrete convection should it develop ahead of the line. ..Leitman.. 04/04/2022