jaxjagman

National Weather Service Nashville TN 249 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 The good news first, tonight looks mostly dry, maybe a few light sprinkles here and there as our lower levels moisten up. Should be quite mild, with low temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Rain chances will reach our northwestern areas around midday on Friday and increase from there with the arctic front on approach. Highs should reach the 50s area wide. Not bad, but now the bad news. I`m looking north across western Canada, and its across the Southern Yukon territory where a 1061 MB surface high resides. Temperatures in that vicinity are between -50F and -60F. As the Canadian ground truth has continued to feed into the models, we are trending toward slightly colder temperatures. A few of the outlier models show low temps as cold as 9 below zero for Nashville Friday morning. This is just an outlier however, and my official low will be +3F, with many zero degree lows for many northern areas. The wind gradient still looks quite strong, in fact it is ticking up up a bit as well. Latest wind chill values are forecast to be close to 20 below zero for much of the mid state Friday morning. High temperatures will reach just 7F to 10F over our northern and central Plateau and 10F to 15F elsewhere. The wind chill warning shall continue but it is now in effect for Thursday night at 10 PM until Noon on Friday. We still may need to look at a potential regular wind advisory for Thursday night, especially for those first several hours following the arctic fropa. This may be issued in upcoming shifts perhaps. The arctic fropa itself is still expected around 5PM in our far northwest, 7p to 8p for Nashville and the I-65 corridor, and 10Pm along the Plateau. As for the snow potential, that has ticked up a bit as well. The upper trough will feed the post frontal air with added energy as it continues to show a slight negative tilt. Furthermore, strengthening as well as the track of the vort max has lead to more favorable snowfall amounts. The snowfall window will occur roughly just behind the arctic fropa and continue for several hours. We do not meet blizzard conditions because the snowfall wont be heavy enough to reduce the visibility down to 1/4Sm for at least 2 consecutive hours. That said, expected snowfall amounts will range from 1/2 inch to 2 inches across roughly the northern half of the cwa. There could very well be some localized 3 inch amounts along the higher elevations of the northern Cumberland Plateau. For this reason, we will be issuing a winter weather advisory for the northern half, roughly along a line from Humphreys county to Van Buren county and points north. The advisory will be in effect from 00Z Friday until 12Z Friday. Moving on, The cold weather will continue through Christmas and wind speeds will still be somewhat elevated with low wind chill values. On Monday we have a chance to reach above freezing, with lower to mid 30s expected. Low temperatures will be in the single digits Saturday morning as well. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 In the extended forecast, it looks dry with a warming trend. We will approach 50 for highs for the middle of next week.

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Nashville TN 242 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 TNZ005>011-023>034-059-062>066-078-080-220900- /O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0010.221223T0000Z-221223T1200Z/ /O.EXT.KOHX.WC.W.0001.221223T0400Z-221223T1800Z/ Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith- Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Williamson-Rutherford-Cannon- De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Warren-Van Buren- Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield, Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Celina, Byrdstown, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson, Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage, Gordonsville, Gainesboro, Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Franklin, Brentwood, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta, Crossville, McMinnville, and Spencer 242 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 15 below to 25 below zero. For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one half to two inches...with local amounts of 3 inches along the northern Cumberland Plateau. Winds will gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...roughly the northern half of Middle Tennessee. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, from 10 PM Thursday to noon CST Friday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Given the fast rate of cooling behind the arctic front...some flash freezing will be possible whereby all exposed wet surfaces will freeze immediately.

Think this means the twitter met weenies.Would be the same people that say i told you but when they are wrong they go into a cave and hibernate.Seems like most signs are for a neutral or weak Nino into summer

Edit GFS does have a 1067 last run

Wonder how cold it could actually get that way.Nothing that extreme has been ever digested in the models?See the GFS SHOW -31/-32,thats brutal enough

Miles City, Montana could possibly break the HP record if the NAM is right.This is where the record HP (1064) WAS recorded Dec 24 1983.Least the NAM is showing it around that area(1069)

I was pretty excited and still am after that int

GEFS AND GFS are on the same page seemingly,just a tad maybe progressive

This would be some decent snow as you head into the Cumberland upslopes

yeah but if it puts stress on the power grids might not be short livedLast thing you want is power outage from rain and wet snow,then wind

If,if the GFS is right like John said you'd have a potential deformation band on the NW/W side of that low,west Tn would do well

Looks weird,looks like some tilted system down into the gulf states into Alabama then the energy gets transfered into east of the Cumberland,but its been showing this,who knows

National Weather Service Nashville TN 556 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2022 Satellite is showing sunny skies...however highs will only be in the lower to middle 40s today. A weak dry boundary comes through tonight/tomorrow and this will increase clouds tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be colder than today...in the middle 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2022 Temperatures warm Monday through Wednesday with southerly winds. Highs by Wednesday will be close to 50 in the Nashville metro area. Then the cool down...or should I say COLD air comes in. A very strong Canadian low dives down the central plains bringing a strong cold front through on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be in the 40s...lows Thursday night/Friday morning single digits! This will cause some wind chill issues and will need to make sure pipes are protected along with the other cold safety precautions. In fact temperatures drop below freeze Thursday night after midnight and will stay below freeze through the end of the long term (Saturday as of right now). Let/s talk precipitation. Pre-frontal rain on Thursday...post frontal mixed precipitation. Wrap around moisture Thursday night and Friday look to be snow. With highs on Friday forecast to be in the upper teens to lower 20s this scenario is becoming more realistic every model run...providing the area gets wrap around moisture. It is way to early to talk amounts...however accumulations for middle TN is looking probable. The moisture moves out before Christmas Eve on Saturday so the chances of having snow falling on Christmas looks nil...however with lows forecast Saturday morning still in the single digits and highs on Saturday in the lower to middle 20s any snow that may have fallen could still be around on Saturday. The extended cold is a much more important story than the snow. Please be prepared for the extended cold temperatures...especially if expected to be out of town. &&

MJO is showing some decent signs as we head into Jan,we should warm up tho before this.The Euro and GFS are on the same page with heights rising in East Asia and a ULL over Mongolia,this seemingly will rise the heights in the east and probably promote a -PNA,possible severe stroms somewhere,GFS also is showing this.But FWIW i already see signs of the Greenland /AK block try to establish itself once again as the MJO seemingly works back into the WH and Africa,we shall see i guess.

National Weather Service Nashville TN 518 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 201 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2022 Satellite imagery this morning shows some scattered low clouds across our east but shrinking in coverage with time, and most of the area is now clear with temps in the 30s. Clouds clearing out along with dewpoints in the 20s should allow lows to drop into the upper 20s by sunrise. Even colder weather is expected this weekend with highs only in the 30s/40s and lows in the low to mid 20s later today through Sunday night. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 201 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2022 Warming trend begins on Monday as flow aloft becomes more southwesterly. Light rain will spread across MS/AL/GA just to our south from Monday into Tuesday as a shortwave trough travels eastward along the Gulf Coast. Have kept our forecast dry, but some sprinkles are possible in our far southern counties. Forecast from Wednesday onward continues to be difficult due to significant differences amongst the main global models, and how far southeast an initial surge of Arctic air will make it on Wednesday. Overall, 00Z guidance shows a large and very intense upper trough digging southward into the Gulf Coast states from Wednesday into Thursday, with strengthening WAA ahead of the trough causing light rain to develop areawide Wednesday night into Thursday. As the Arctic cold front races through the area Thursday afternoon/evening, rain rapidly changes to light snow from west to east, with snow continuing into early Friday before ending. Although models generally agree with this scenario, 00Z GFS continues to show some of next week`s Arctic airmass oozing down into our northwest counties as early as Wednesday morning, with the Arctic air remaining in place into Thursday as the main surge pushes through. This would cause precip to be ice/snow much longer than than the considerably warmer ECMWF, which keeps the Arctic air well off to our northwest until Thursday afternoon/evening. Regardless, both models and NBM have trended wetter so have bumped up pops and snow accums accordingly for the Thursday/Thursday night timeframe. Even if the current forecast snow amounts are too high, any ice or snow accumulation combined with the expected cold temperatures would create hazardous travel conditions. Bitterly cold and dry conditions are expected to continue through the holiday weekend, with lows in the single digits and teens and highs only in the 20s through at least Christmas Day. Temperatures could be even colder than currently shown if we get substantial snow cover. Wind chills will also fall as low as 10 below zero at times, which would be well into our wind chill advisory criteria if it pans out.

Yeah,id be concerned tho of losing power.Those would be massive wet flakes when it started to change over then the isobars tighten up

Its just fun to look at

Not as dry that run,assuming its right,it'd still be adding token flakes the day after Christmas

Looking more likely as we get into the 3rd week of Dec we could see a stretch of days not even getting above freezing...JMHO.We'll pay the piper it seems as we get into Jan the way the MJO is looking,hopefully we can get some snow out of this before.Be a shame if we dont

Wonder if the GFS is gonna be actually close to what its showing on the thermals around Christmas,Thats some height drops in East Asia,havent seen that in a few years.

Cumberland

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Northern and Central Louisiana Central Mississippi * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 700 PM CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to develop this afternoon and track northeastward across much of northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi. Parameters appear favorable for strong and long-tracked tornadoes this afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north of Fort Polk LA to 55 miles south of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with wind damage and tornadoes, along with some hail, will be possible from the Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley north-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A significant severe-weather event will be likely across parts of the region. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Sabine River Valley/Eastern Ozarks... A highly progressive upper-level trough will move quickly into the southern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a broad 40 to 60 knot low-level jet will transport low-level moisture northward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley, where surface dewpoints should reach the lower to mid 60s by midday. In response to moisture advection and surface heating, moderate instability is forecast to develop by early afternoon across much of east Texas and Louisiana. Isolated to scattered convective initiation will be possible in the early afternoon from near the instability axis eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat will be possible with this activity. Moisture will continue to advect northward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. This will set up a broad corridor of moderate instability across much of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. As the upper-level trough approaches from the west, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen into the 50 to 70 knot range by early evening. This combined with increasing deep-layer shear, associated with an approaching southern Plains mid-level jet, will make conditions very favorable for severe thunderstorms across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. NAM forecast soundings along the axis of strongest instability, from northeast Louisiana into eastern Arkansas, by 03Z Wednesday have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range. This combined with a long and looped hodographs, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicities in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range, will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells that remain discrete. The most favorable area for strong tornadoes may develop along the western edge of the low-level jet, as is forecast by the ECMWF, from eastern Arkansas into northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee. A tornado outbreak will be possible across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, if the current forecast parameters, such as instability, deep-layer shear and low-level shear remain at current forecast levels. In addition to the tornado threat, the potential for wind damage will likely increase during the evening as storm coverage and the chance for cell interactions increase. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to be steep, which should support a hail threat with the more intense cells. The extent of moisture return will determine how far north-northeast the severe threat develops. At this time, it appears that at least some severe threat will be possible during the evening and overnight period as far north as southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. A categorical upgrade will be possible in later outlooks. ..Broyles.. 11/27/2022