Jump to content

jaxjagman

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,627

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    Definite need to just watch and see what unfolds the next several days
  2. jaxjagman
    Dunno right now,think it was yesterday or the day before the GFS didnt show much of the winds dying down like today
  3. jaxjagman
    https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202301120000&player_dimension=base_time
  4. jaxjagman
    Leave it here for now,but something to watch the next several days
  5. jaxjagman
    Damn Jeff,when did you ever see GOES go warm like that in spring
  6. jaxjagman
    Doubt we see a SSWE,winds decelerate and maybe displace it but its still a brick
  7. jaxjagman
    For us in Mid Tn i use South Korea.Teleconnections factor in just as well and it's not 1 to 1 correlated meaning it can be wrong,but it does give you a hint of the pattern upcoming.In a couple days there is height rises in East Asia mean a blah pattern with height rises in the east but there is a trough at this time going through Mongolia into China,this would mean basically trough in the west rising heights in the east.So least to me it seems at this time the Euro could be slightly to fast with the pattern.But the pattern is 6-10 days,i always split it myself and go 8 days
  8. jaxjagman
    Myself East Asia seems more easier to decipher
  9. jaxjagman
    Think like Jeff said days ago we probably have to wait.The SPV was weak into Nov/Dec then the strong trades set in and the SPV went into brick mode.Now the winds seemingly will slack up but the SPV still looks strong and more displaced,wish Berlin didnt kill that site.MJO could get good for spell but right now seemingly this will be a fast MJO BACK into the Maritime and WP,Doesnt this seem like the 2011-`12 winter here right now,we got cold in Dec and again into Feb but March if i recall right didnt you guys get a couple late season storms in the east?There was no SSWE during this time.
  10. jaxjagman
    Even if its right we'd still be talking several days to effect us any even after that time stamp,then we'd have to see what kind of teleconnections are showing up after.
  11. jaxjagman
    Still shooting for the mid month.MJO gets out of the WP,Pacific Jet retracts,least we sould get out of the crud for awhile
  12. jaxjagman
    Should be a very active patterm we are seeing now into week2 of Jan if you like rain and severe in the cold season
  13. jaxjagman
    Even the Euro would seem to show a volatile pattern with all the moving parts,not sure the models will do a very decent job upcoming
  14. jaxjagman
    Not sure i agree with BAM unless the PAC craps out.Who knows right now.The SPV seemingly as we head into Mid Jan is gonna get displaced and weaken again as it goes into Greenland,least thats what the GFS says FWIW.The AO is showing signs it could fall out soon or least go -ve for a spell,still like to see a better NAO but even that is better than it looked yesterday.But the pattern we are in for the next couple weeks looks like cutters.I was looking at all the waves the GFS shows in the long range seems like a volatile pattern to decipher,proly best to stay away from the GFS MID/LONG range,its not gonna be right
  15. jaxjagman
    probably generally not to an extent but still gives you a hint,Like the Euro shows the signal of the MJO retrogrades into the WP when the majority of its ensembles shows it going into the WP.so i wouldnt say the CFS is that far off,but that dont mean its right either
  16. jaxjagman
    CFS strenghtened the MJO signal today,into Jan into the WH and Africa,along with the AO going negative once again.PNA/NAO looks +,seems like a better chance of cutters,for us in the west this isnt a horrible look for us,personally i dont like a big -NAO with systems down into the GOM,we get cold and dry.Still like to see the NAO change somewhat or even us will seemingly just see cold air chasing rain..blah
  17. jaxjagman
    Like to see where the MJO these next couple weeks ends up.CFS (if its right) shows it starting to strenghten into the NH /Africa then into the IO.If NINA hangs on i think it will it could get at least interesting into spring,but i thought we'd do better with this NiNA last year
  18. jaxjagman
    Was a quiet year
  19. jaxjagman
    We already can see signs of the AO coming back to life,just need the Pac to work in tandem
  20. jaxjagman
    Dont care for when the SPV splits myself,it's just a wrecking ball for winter when its happens in our part.MJO still looks like it will be like when we seen it in Nov.Still believe as we head into the Mid month we will see changes towards the better,we could even see more sliders as the MJO starts to head into the WH/Africa,just need the cold
  21. jaxjagman
    like the wild swings in the SOI,we saw this somewhat as the MJO moved across the WP in Nov but we didnt see the suppressed air into the IO in which the CFS is showing,but certainly can change.The MJO is showing a similar pattern as what we just recently saw as it heads into the WP its gonna possibly dive into the COD as it progresses so then we need to look at what drives the pattern,definite want to see the AK change.I was thinking the pattern will change towards the good into the 2nd week of Jan now it looks more towards mid month/JMHO 25 Dec 2022 1012.96 1005.85 17.59 16.96 13.85 24 Dec 2022 1012.85 1004.25 25.33 16.44 14.01 23 Dec 2022 1014.64 1001.10 50.96 15.98 14.00 22 Dec 2022 1015.01 1000.55 55.74 14.44 13.62 21 Dec 2022 1013.67 1002.65 37.88 12.36 13.17 20 Dec 2022 1011.61 1004.00 20.19 11.13 12.89 19 Dec 2022 1012.50 1004.15 24.03 10.55 12.83
  22. jaxjagman
    Sheet of ice?
  23. jaxjagman
    Rollings blackouts started again,we just had ours https://map.datacapable.com/i/nes/
  24. jaxjagman
    Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 23 Dec 2022 1014.64 1001.10 50.96 15.98 14.00 22 Dec 2022 1015.01 1000.55 55.74 14.44 13.62 21 Dec 2022 1013.67 1002.65 37.88 12.36 13.17 20 Dec 2022 1011.61 1004.00 20.19 11.13 12.89 19 Dec 2022 1012.50 1004.15 24.03 10.55 12.83 18 Dec 2022 1013.74 1004.55 28.39 10.08 12.70 17 Dec 2022 1012.11 1004.30 21.23 9.53 12.64 16 Dec 2022 1010.65 1004.65 11.83 8.95 12.75 15 Dec 2022 1011.02 1006.50 4.15 8.67 12.95 14 Dec 2022 1012.48 1008.45 1.61 9.05 13.13 13 Dec 2022 1011.91 1008.30 -0.57 9.03 13.21 12 Dec 2022 1009.65 1007.30 -7.11 8.78 13.30
  25. jaxjagman
    Bout over for us other than flakes,good luck to you guys in the east
×
×
  • Create New...