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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    Almost look like the GFS wants to obliterate the PV dont it?
  2. jaxjagman
    Euro site seems to be down,seems like a outlier right now
  3. jaxjagman
    MJO just getting into the WH this time of year also dont seem very kind,its usually just dry until it gets into the WH and Africa,thats where you guys in the east could cash in if the signal stays coherent
  4. jaxjagman
    But i wouldnt be surprised if some boundary gets hung out somewhere along us in future model runs,you'll see some severe risk like Houston said in Dixie again,not sure for us but as the days get longer
  5. jaxjagman
    MJO has been consistent still since fall,seems more than likely later on we will see systems again cutting up through the Ozarks or Tenn every 3-4 days depending on where any ridge sets up but most of these will be +ve tilt and move out fast.Its what weve seen since fall it seems
  6. jaxjagman
    there was a trough going through East Asia a couple days ago,i wouldn't be surprised if the EPS is to slow
  7. jaxjagman
    Outbreak in 2011 we didnt have to worry about the SPV
  8. jaxjagman
    GEFS wants to kill severe spring possibly
  9. jaxjagman
    Pattern since fall has been consistent with the MJO and right now i wouldnt be suprised if this looks better in the next few days,but we are going to warm up some upcoming
  10. jaxjagman
    Euro has the MJO getting into the WH,Phase 7 out of the COD around the Mid month,it looks much better than what it has been showing.Crazy as it sounds the the Euro is playing catch up to the GEFS
  11. jaxjagman
    Just zr here,,mostly drizzle right now should pick up in about a half hour
  12. jaxjagman
    I'm not really sure,the MJO signal looks to really weaken as we get around MId Feb,both the Euro and CFS are showing this,GEFS right now keeps a stronger signal into the WP out of the COD. Seems like at least we;ve seen this same pattern out west since Nov,wash,rinse and repeat.The MJO signal gets strong then it goes into suppression after, then strong then suppressed again and so on.So seemingly if the patten recycles like it has we'll start seeing a stronger signal into Africa and the IO into March,but thats JMO and certainly might be wrong
  13. jaxjagman
    Dont think we even got below freezing last night and we still are not right now
  14. jaxjagman
    National Weather Service Memphis TN 901 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 02z surface analysis places an arctic cold front from New England back through portions of the Cumberland Plateau, Northern Alabama, and into Southern Mississippi. The freezing line across the Mid-South extends from near Paris, TN back to Memphis, and generally along the I-40 corridor into Little Rock, AR. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show the leading edge of the wintry precipitation already just east of the Mississippi River. KNQA WSR-88D dual polarization products indicate precipitation is falling mainly as freezing rain with the inclusion of some embedded sleet over Northeast Arkansas. This verifies with METAR observation and winter weather reports we`ve received thus far. Unfortunately, the earliest 00Z models (NAM/HRRR) are indicating slightly cooler temperatures which may end up impacting the potential melting of any ice during the day on Tuesday. A combination of a 30 kt 850 low level jet over the Arklatex and low to mid level warm air advection and a mid-level shortwave trough will assist in producing precipitation across the Mid-South throughout the night with the first wave tapering off Tuesday morning. 00Z KLZK upper air sounding is indicating a well pronounced warm nose approaching 9C resulting in the complete melting of precipitation as it reaches the below freezing temperatures near the surface thus resulting in freezing rain. Some sleet will still be possible further north towards the Missouri/Kentucky border where temperatures are slightly cooler aloft. Ice accumulation amounts across the warning area may end up averaging between one quarter to one half inch across the warning area with this first round if latest model guidance verifies across the area. An evening update will be available shortly to adjust precipitation chances upward and lower temperatures into Tuesday.
  15. jaxjagman
    Pattern looks more severe than cold as we get into deep Feb,just my two cents,if this was Cane season we'd probably be looking at tropical genesis some where
  16. jaxjagman
    Long range looks pretty crappy,right now.Models seem to want to build the Upper level ridge into South Korea/Japan into the 2nd week of Feb,this could very well build the Mid Level ridge(SER) the middle of Feb, maybe it will change but as we head into mid Feb that's not a cold look.
  17. jaxjagman
    Pretty active start of 2023 in Jan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_tornadoes_in_January_2023
  18. jaxjagman
    Trough going through East Asia again yesterday and today,same ole same ole.Teleconnection nothing but a -NAO/PNA,,cold chasing rain look,ready for severe if we even have one
  19. jaxjagman
    Pretty much we've had a minor SSW but the next couple days the winds will pick up again,we never saw a complete reversal just a displaced Vortex ,still be interesting to see what happens later
  20. jaxjagman
    Last couple days the winds spiked up causing the temps to fall some.What the models today are showing these winds will nowl die off,we should see a temp rise the next day or two
  21. jaxjagman
    See what happens in the long range,Euro today wants to build a Big Rex block into the Ak,thats not good but there is a trough going through East Asia in a few days,seems possibe at least for now we cool down,warm up then a trough in the East into Feb sometimes in the first week of Feb
  22. jaxjagman
    Right but i wonder if this site is having the same issues,it dont really show any spike in temps until maybe today or tomorrow?Seems like the maps of what JMA shows we've already seen the winds decelerate last few days,not trying to nit-pick anything
  23. jaxjagman
    To an extent anyways,no SSW right yet
  24. jaxjagman
    Looks like we are seeing the winds decelerate
  25. jaxjagman
    Tomer Burg on twitter says the GFS/GEFS has had data issues into the Polar Vortex
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