jaxjagman

Thought the Euro was more like the GFS...lol,but both seem to be having problems with the H5,which at this range should be common.To give credit to the GFS (cant believe i'm giving it praise at this range)it's been consistently showing the H5 closing off and the Euro just recently picked up on this.This right now seems like a hydro problem with recent rains leading up to this event,either way it seems right now a pretty potent system

His facts are totally wrong for Nashville,hes just trying to spew his anti global warming with JB.It's certainly a fact our warmest temp in March came on March,20 of 1982 when it hit 86.Why dont he post how Nashville shattered a record high last week and almost broke the all time record high for Feb by a degree...hmmm

Me watching Auburns point guards

Been like this all winter,some great storm tracks time to time,you'd typically expect to cash in but nothing

Ive been looking at 2018 but right now the MJO was more progressive than now,not sure this seems like it could become more active now as we head towards the bookend of March into April,if the MJO can stay active

Pretty strong MJO signal into 8 upcoming.I'm starting to think our best shot at severe for the next few weeks will come over the next few days

We got some flakes flying in with the mist

finally a tornado by Parker Crossroads,its been showing rotation

yeah if you look at the map i posted it should be along there

Yeah shook my house a couple times

ational Weather Service Nashville TN 639 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL... Issued at 628 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 The 12Z sounding from OHX shows a moist, highly-sheared, and potentially unstable atmosphere already in place. Fortunately, the radiosonde release took place before the current storm moved over the office, so the profile is uncontaminated. The current surface-based CAPE is 0 and the LI is also 0. However, the forecast surface-based CAPE is 879 J/kg with a corresponding LI of minus-4. The mid-level lapse rate is 7.2 C/km, so this suggests the potential for strong updrafts especially with the help of the cold frontal boundary this afternoon. The observed 0-3 SRH is a robust 530, which is about what we expected with this environment. The wind is 48 kts at 900 meters AGL, so there is a considerable amount of low-level wind shear already present. Finally, the precipitable water value is 1.41 inches, which is a record high PWAT value for this date/time. The mid-level dry layer which was showing up on previous soundings, including just 6 hours ago, has completely disappeared. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 This is turning out to be a very interesting forecast for February! I might have even forgotten for a bit that it is barely mid February. We had a few strong storms overnight with the warm sector but this has transitioned to a heavy rainfall threat at the moment. 06Z sounding had a surface cape of 62 J/KG but a PW of 1.20 inches. Cancelled Watch #34 for our CWA as convection seems to be elevated and HRRR shows the CAPE really dropping off through 10Z. Fully expect additional watches later this morning and afternoon with the very strong cold front. Severe parameters from the 06Z HRRR is very impressive today especially this afternoon and early evening. It has very high shear and helicity through the day. MUCAPE picks up near the Tennessee River by 15/16Z to 1100+ J/KG and spreading to Nashville Metro by 18/20Z of 1200+ J/KG and then dropping to 500-700 J/KG by 23Z. Timing is very challenging as it seems like the potential for severe weather will be through the day. It might be easier to say when it will end and that will be with the cold front. Making an educated guess...the best timing is just out a head and with the front...or from noon west to 6 pm east. Please stay weather aware as all severe weather types of straight line winds...hail...and tornadoes will be possible. The HRRR supercell composite and Significant Tornado Parameter really highlights several areas across middle TN from 18-00Z. Please stay weather aware and please encourage your social network to do the same. Once the cold front passes it will be on the cold side tomorrow with highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1549&y=645&z=2&angle=0&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps[borders]=white&lat=0&p[0]=cira_glm_l2_group_energy&opacity[0]=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6 Moved North of us now but it woke me up a few times..lol

Quite a convective system overnight here,looking like some of the rains the models were showing came in a few hrs faster

We just live in a weird environment seemingly.The mountains wreck havocs on snow or severe

ay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Several tornadoes are possible over Mississippi and Alabama, including the risk for isolated strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An elongated positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the southern Plains by 00Z, with a primary/leading midlevel jet over 110 kt from MO into Lower MI and a dry slot developing from St. Louis to Lake Erie. After 00Z, a secondary wave will move from the southern Plains toward the lower MS Valley, with increasing height falls and strengthening winds aloft across the southeastern states. At the surface, low pressure will move from southern IL into OH by 00Z, reaching New England by Friday morning. A cold front will extend south from the low, crossing the MS River by late morning, and proceeding into the mid OH/TN Valleys by late afternoon. Meanwhile, a warm front will extend east from the low Thursday morning, across central IN and OH. Southerly winds across the warm sector will maintain a plume of 60s F dewpoints as far north as the surface low, with mid 60s F across the lower MS Valley. More substantial moisture will be in place over LA, with upper 60s F translating eastward across southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle by Friday morning with the cold front roughly from western PA to FL by this time. A broad area of 40-50 kt southwesterly flow at 850 mb will exist atop the entire warm sector, enhancing low-level shear. The combination of a moist air mass and favorable shear over a large area will likely support corridors of severe storms, including a few tornadoes through the period. ...LA...MS...AL... A cold front will move into western MS and south-central LA by midday, where ample moisture will be in place. Storms both along and ahead of the front will be possible as the air mass will be uncapped, with upper 60s F dewpoints likely sufficient to support surface-based parcels. Effective SRH around 300 m2/s2 will be common along the eastern edge of the instability plume, and supercells will be possible with tornado risk. As height falls and winds aloft increase overnight, the cold front will continue to support strong to severe storms, with 50 kt flow at 850 mb and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Hodographs will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with the primary mitigating factor being cool/marginal boundary-layer temperatures. ...OH Valley into TN... Storms are likely to be ongoing across much of TN and KY, perhaps extending into northern MS and along the AR/MS border, within a warm advection regime beneath 50-60 kt 850 mb flow. The instability axis will be near the MS River Thursday morning, thus storms across western areas may have tornado or damaging wind potential at that time. Much will depend on existing storm modes at the beginning of the day, as heating will be limited, and outflow may both provide a focus for new development or stabilize portions of the warm sector. During the afternoon, areas of air mass recovery may occur ahead of the cold front and behind the early day storms. In addition, some of the existing storm complexes could evolve/reorganize across KY and TN. Shear profiles will strongly favor supercells with tornado threat, but little heating and ongoing precipitation may limit surface temperatures. Farther north, a dry slot should clear out much of the area around IL and northern IN, but southern IN into OH will remain sufficiently unstable for severe storms given strong shear. The area along and east of the surface low track may favor isolated supercells, assuming the surface air mass can warm into the mid 60s F. ..Jewell.. 02/15/2023

Not even sure what might happen here.Still look like early rains and clouds might hold back any severe.Like SPC mentions.I think for you guys its more timing,GFS/NAM seem to be showing loss of diurnal heating the severe threat falls off markadly,dont mean you still cant get severe storms

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of Texas and Oklahoma beginning late in the day and into the evening on Wednesday. A severe threat will also develop overnight over the lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South region, with a tornado risk. ...Eastern OK/North-Central TX to the Mid-South... Late-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging southeast into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to shift into the southern Rockies by mid day as a 110kt 500mb jet translates across the desert southwest toward the southern High Plains. With time this feature will advance into eastern KS allowing the trough to become more positive tilted as it moves into the central Plains. This evolution will maintain broad southwesterly flow across lower latitudes, including the Mid-South region. Of particular concern will be the development of a pronounced LLJ across the lower MS/TN Valley, especially during the latter half of the period when a marked increase is expected (in excess of 60kt). More appreciable mid-level height falls will remain north of the higher-buoyancy air mass, thus low-level warm advection will likely prove instrumental in the majority of supercell development through the period. At 05z, a narrow band of strongly-forced convection is observed along the front over AZ. Otherwise, most of the southern states are convective free with strong capping. Low-level trajectories favor Gulf air mass advancing inland across the lower MS Valley, and mid 60s surface dew points are well established at this time over much of the upper TX Coast and LA. Latest guidance suggests this air mass will easily advance north into AR/western TN Valley later today; however, convective development will likely remain suppressed until the latter half of the period when the LLJ intensifies in response to the approaching short wave. Upstream, strong boundary-layer heating across the southern High Plains will result in very steep surface-3km lapse rates from the southern TX Panhandle into western OK/northwest TX. It appears this steep lapse rate plume will overspread the northwestern portions of return moisture across south-central OK/north-central TX, just ahead of the front/dry line. As temperatures warm into the lower 70s capping should weaken and scattered convection is expected to develop. Forecast soundings favor supercell development and this activity should spread east during the evening hours with an attendant threat for all hazards. Downstream, LLJ will increase across LA into western TN from late afternoon into the evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread this region as 3km capping gradually weakens. As the cap weakens, isolated discrete supercells are expected to evolve within a moistening, warm advection regime. ESRH values in excess of 300 m2/s2, along with steep lapse rates, and modest instability favor severe supercells capable of producing tornadoes, possibly strong. A corridor of supercells may ultimately evolve along an axis from southeast AR into western TN, during the latter half of the period, as the cold front will not advance east of the MS River prior to sunrise. Warm advection should be the primary forcing mechanism for this activity, thus episodic bouts of severe are possible. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/15/2023

Incredible what the mountains can do.We are almost 60 and yall are getting snowI was driving my BMW with my top down today

But who knows down the road.The Euro seems like it wants to to build back the Mid level ridge again down into Cuba/Bahamas,and a Upper Level Ridge around the Mid Atlantic.Seems like the same pattern we are seeing mid week once again

Probably better to wait until around next weekend,But the GFS and Euro seems to be hinting at some potential strong storms in its long range

Congrats to who ever got to see some snow.Least someone got to see it in this crappie winter

Most of the models have been showing it raining,cloudy here possibly in the morning until the CF passes through,Thursday.Shouldn't be no problem with winds.It could be a big deal here or not a big deal,its kinda to early to trust any model right now,its a pretty active pattern upcoming JMO

This SEEMS to be headed towards 2018 when there were no EF4-5'S that year.Japan had the BAIU FRONT establish in which caused catastrophic flooding in that region.Flooding in India.Couple strong phoons .There was a couple strong hurricanes,Florence for one.We also had a fall tornado outbreak in Nov.,just a few events noted. Based on the ONI it does look certainly possible when we get into spring it could become more neutral.We just as well had a similar SSWE into Feb(pic below) Who knows,but by my observation as of right it seems to be headed towards a more 2018,this does not mean anything historical will happen again that was noted above.

Not looking good for failure,not right now anyways

Yeah it seems to be headed towards a major SSWE,but it still looks to be a outlier right now,no clue,sometimes the GFS wins..lol