jaxjagman

Think they busted on the highs today

The east warmed up fast,still looks to be a positve TNI but thats gonna fade away soon

That was a good storm just passed through,my radar showed the dbz around 58 around my house,Hardest rain ive seen in years for a brief time,other than that..just blah,it was still exciting

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Airmass modification and a northward flux of low-level moisture will occur across the southern Plains through mid-week, as upper trough amplification occurs over the Southwest. On Day 4/Wednesday, while a 15+ percent severe area is not currently warranted, some severe potential may exist near a surface low across Kansas and a front extending east-northeastward into Missouri/Illinois. For Day 5/Thursday, severe weather seems probable across portions of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Current thinking is that severe potential should be maximized near the advancing cold front across Oklahoma toward the Ozarks and near the southward-extending dryline into north/west-central Texas. All severe hazards are plausible. Severe-weather potential will likely persist eastward toward the ArkLaMiss/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee into Day/6 Friday. This scenario will be supported by strong deep-layer/low-level winds, atop a relatively moist boundary layer ahead of a cold front and/or lingering convection from Day 5/Thursday night. Thereafter, guidance variability considerably increases into the weekend, with uncertainties regarding the details of subsequent severe potential. ..Guyer.. 03/19/2023

Horrible winter,our only snow came when we had the record breaking cold in late Dec,that was only a dusting

Still think its possible those warm SST'S ARE LIKE 2018 in East Asia,but we'll see.To many similarities right now,.2018 wasnt the worse in the mainland for tornadoes,but there was no EF4 OR EF5 that year This map shows the tracks of all tropical cyclones in the 2018 Pacific typhoon season. The points show the location of each storm at 6-hour intervals. The colour represents the storm's maximum sustained wind speeds as classified in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (see below), and the shape of the data points represent the type of the storm.

Seems like the models are fairly close today.Upper level ridge building to our east next Friday could bring a decent CF around next Friday.But already seeing signs of the blah cap,see what it looks like in a couple days

Not having a good night posting it seems The MJO is acting like 1997 with the exception it seems to possibly die out in the future it seems.In 1997 later into the year it built up a strong NINO

This pattern seems to warm Into the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan like the vid shows and even into the Bering Sea Into East Asia there has been nothing but Ridges in this area since December and the SST's are around 1.5-1.8C above normal.If these warm SSTS hold on you could see a potential decent Baiu front into Japan into summer along with some potential strong phoons.

Tried to like it but it wouldnt let me for some reason.March is gonna have a rough go with that MJO signal,looks like winter will arrive when no one wanted it no more,least i dont.

APEC is leaning towards a weak Nino into Aug,tho some are showing a stronger one

Nashville BP dropped to 29.06.record is 29.02,quite a system

Jackson had a wind gust of 54kts,power outages being reported

He didnt say there was 0% chance he was referring to later on

GymTek

My son has a gymnastics meet in Knoxville tonight,i'll wait until the severe potential to pass then i am headed that way

Us in Mid/Tn the cap should be gone now ,Window looks between 10-12 for severe,rest is wind

Winds are picking up for sure.NIA 10 min ago reported a 38kt gust

Try this one https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?gust,2023030215,36.473,-89.253,5,m:eNpadfB

We probably should have started a thread just for wind..lol..thats gonna seemingly be the bigger story

Be relly surprised if they dont expand that risk further east in a bit with that wind shear showing

National Weather Service Nashville TN 223 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 201 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 Go outside. Enjoy this tranquil weather. Tomorrow is not going to be like this. Partly to mostly cloudy skies and winds 10 mph or less is quiet compared to what we`re expected tomorrow. Let`s start with tonight. As I type this, an already intense closed low system has dug into northern Mexico. This system will eject northeastward over the next few hours and as it does, a severe weather outbreak will begin over ArkLaTex. They`re going to be in for a long night. At the same time, a warm front will be lifted through Middle TN. Mostly showers, maybe a few thunderstorms are expected here at home. Initially, we were concerned about the potential for a few strong to severe storms with the warm front, but it looks like we`re not going to destabilize near enough for any intense storms. However, as the night goes on and the upper low becomes negatively tilted over Arkansas and deep, strong cyclogenesis occurs, the pressure gradient will tighten tremendously over the region. This is going to do two things: 1.) pull more moisture/instability into the area and B.) it will make the wind blow as though a severe storm is over the whole area. The combination of instability nearing 500 J/Kg and great forcing along the front will open the door for severe storms. Mainly, damaging straight line winds will be the threat with any storm, but low-level helicities nearing 250 m2/s2 will also cause storms to exhibit some rotation, so a tornado or two is also possible. Of course, all of that is fine and dandy, and while we might issue a few warnings, I really think the bigger story of tomorrow is going to be the gradient winds. For the first time in my 16+ year NWS career, I have preemptively issued a High Wind Warning. This will replace the Wind Advisory completely and run from 6 am to 6 pm CST. Here`s why this is going to be significant: winds are going to gust 45 to 60 mph probably before storms get to wherever you are. This will open the door for trees to fall (especially with grounds already wet) and power outages to occur. This means you will need to have your smart phone charged to 100% TONIGHT and make sure you have fresh batteries in your NOAA Weather Radio so you can reliably get warnings if the power goes out. This is going to be a unique situation and we need to treat it as such. Gradient winds aside, models continue to show storms breaking across the TN River around 7-8 am tomorrow morning and traversing Middle TN through the mid-afternoon hours. Winds will start to subside around sunset in the west and last a few more hours in the east. In regards to the flood threat, QPF value are not sky high. I do believe we can see the light at the end of the tunnel as far as that`s concerned. However, with several spots seeing 3 inches last night, additional rainfall tonight and again tomorrow over the same areas could cause at a minimum localized flooding. For this reason, I will maintain the Flood Watch, though it could be cancelled early if rain totals look even smaller than what I`m seeing now.

< Day 2 Outlook WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point Updated: 1952 UTC Mon Feb 27, 2023 Valid: 12 UTC Mar 01, 2023 - 12 UTC Mar 02, 2023 Forecast Discussion Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 302 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 01 2023 - 12Z Thu Mar 02 2023 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF TENNESSEE... ...Mid-South... Low-amplitude southern stream shortwave energy embedded within strong, and increasingly diffluent mid to upper-level west-southwest flow aloft downstream of the longwave trough over the Southwest will be interacting with a quasi-stationary front draped across the Mid-South for multiple rounds of convection late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. The convective threat will be facilitated by an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer pooling along and south of the front with aid of a 30 to 50 kt low-level jet. PWs are forecast to rise to locally over 1.5 inches over the Mid-South with these values reaching as much as 2 to 3+ standard deviations above the mean. A dual moisture feed regime is forecast with a combination of low-level Gulf of Mexico moisture working in tandem with the northeast transport of mid to upper-level eastern tropical Pacific moisture which is already seen pooling in the latest CIRA-ALPW imagery. MUCAPE values are forecast to rise in the vicinity of the front to between 1000 to 1500 J/kg and this coupled with deep layer forcing associated with the aforementioned shortwave energy, increasing vertical shear, and larger scale placement of right-entrance region jet dynamics/forcing should result in regional development of organized convection. Multiple convective clusters are expected that will tend to be aligned west-southwest to east-northeast with the deeper layer mean flow and this will be suggestive of a threat of repeating/training cells. Rainfall rates are likely to reach up into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range with the stronger/organized convective cells and with some storm totals that may reach up into the 2 to 4+ inch range given concerns for repeating/training cells. The latest NASA SPoRT soil moisture data indicates relatively moist antecedent conditions across portions of the Mid-South and this is suggested as well with USGS data showing locally above normal streamflows. Given this and the environmental support for heavy rainfall, a sizable portion of the Marginal Risk area was upgraded to a Slight Risk with an emphasis on Tennessee where the best overlap of moist soil conditions and heavy rainfall potential overlap. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible across this region. Orrison

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/THU... ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4... A regional outbreak of severe weather appears increasingly likely Thursday afternoon and Thursday night including the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which may be strong. Available guidance is in ample general agreement with the east/northeastward-ejection of an upper trough from the southern Rockies early Thursday to the Ozarks/ArkLaTex by late Thursday night. Owing to a stalling/decaying front early this week, respectable low-level moisture will exist across much of the Deep South in advance of this approaching upper-level system and its related intense deep-layer wind field. Current thinking is that this severe potential should steadily increase across central/eastern Texas and possibly southeast Oklahoma during the day. This risk should only increase/further organize into Thursday evening across the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss and Lower Mississippi Valley, and eventually the Tennessee Valley late Thursday night. ...Friday/Day 5... Severe-weather potential is expected to continue to Friday across the Southeast States including Georgia/north Florida and the Carolinas, and possibly as far north as parts of the Mid-Atlantic. This will be as the upper-level trough races northeastward from the Lower Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic States. Very strong deep-layer winds will coincide with a modestly unstable warm sector ahead of a cold front and/or residual convection from Thursday night. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes could occur across the region. ...Saturday/Day 6 through Monday/Day 8... An inactive few days with limited deep convective/severe potential is currently expected this weekend into early next week. High pressure will likely be increasingly established east of the Rockies as richer low-level moisture is shunted toward the Gulf of Mexico. ..Guyer.. 02/27/2023

Next week might be interesting Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D5/THU... ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday as moisture advection occurs across much of the Southeast. Thunderstorms will be possible across the moist sector from east Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and northward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At this time, any severe threat is expected to remain isolated on Wednesday, due to weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Thursday/Day 5 and Friday/Day 6... An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward on Thursday from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. By late afternoon on Thursday, model forecasts develop a corridor of moderate instability in east Texas and have strong deep-layer shear present over much of the southern Plains. This environment should support severe storms capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps some tornadoes. A widespread outbreak of severe weather will be possible beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight period. The potential for severe storms should shift eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and into the central Gulf Coast states Thursday night where the threat for wind damage, hail and tornadoes should continue. On Friday, the upper-level system is forecast to move northeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The greatest potential for severe storms would be from eastern parts of the southeastern states northeastward into the Carolinas. Any line of storms that can persist or develop during the day on Friday, could have wind-damage or tornado potential. However, the overall threat on Friday should be less than Thursday, as the upper-level trough moves further northeast away from the stronger instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, high pressure is forecast to settle in across much of the continental United States. This dry and cool airmass should make thunderstorm development unfavorable in most areas. ..Broyles.. 02/26/2023