jaxjagman

Should have a chance for some strong storms Sunday into the evening,Lower levels look crappish right now with the LP heading towards the lakes,but still a good chance for a good light show,wind and possibly hail here somewhere..Probably best to see what the models show tomorrow

We sure could use some rain here.Good news it seems a ULL will nose into the Valley in a couple days and head into the southeast states,this should at least keep us in a unsettled pattern for maybe much of the week into the weekend as the PW'S look to be unseasonably high,just need a kicker

Mesoscale Discussion 0982 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Areas affected...southeast TN...northern AL...and northwest GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 112322Z - 112345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and hail are expected to spread southeast into northern Alabama, southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms over Middle TN are expected to continue to spread southeast into northern AL/northwest GA over the next few hours. Some modest increase in vertical shear is expected through evening, amid moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Semi-discrete cells will pose a risk for large hail given lengthening hodographs with time. A modest low-level jet is also forecast to increase to around 25-30 kt this evening, and some upscale development into bowing/forward propagating clusters. An attendant increase in damaging wind potential will accompany convection in this scenario. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon for portions of the MCD area.

That is unusual even during June into summer,cant remember to see three warned cones at one time in a long time

Nice to get some rains here,parts of East Tn are in a severe drought,our yard was beautiful a couple weeks ago,but now have brown patches all over

Well ,it did..lol

Cell headed towrads Rocky Top looks better now

Johns getting some action,another behind it

starting to die out

yeah that seems around the upslopes

another by Crab Orchard

radar is showing a better hook

We havent gotten a lick of rain other than a sprinkle the last month,hope we get some rain out of this

Tornado Warning TNC013-129-151-112300- /O.NEW.KMRX.TO.W.0013.230611T2207Z-230611T2300Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Morristown TN 607 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Morgan County in east Tennessee... West central Campbell County in east Tennessee... Central Scott County in east Tennessee... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 607 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Helenwood, or 10 miles south of Oneida, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

Lets see those shelfie pics in the mountains

I was thinking this still has alot of potential growth to be a pretty strong NINO upcoming the MJO seems like it gonna get stuck into the WP well into May seemingly.1997 was still much colder than it was right now in the west.CFS seems to be hinting at a strong KW as we get into May that could upwell those warm subsurface temps,i'm not no pro like you are so its just IMHO..lol

They have the best afternoon storms when they kick off the StJohns River in between the Inter Coastal during the summer time.When i was younger me and a friend were at St Augustine beach when you could drive on it and was drinking some beer.We seen a storm coming behind us but we figured it was just a typical afternoon storm.All the sudden we heard all this banging and the winds cranked up,we turned and looked must have been a EF-O went right by us it cleaned someones upper deck,surf board lawn chairs whatever else,we watched it go right by us then it went into a water spout we watched the surfboard go out about 500 yards into the ocean,i tried to go get it after but it was to far out .Usually when you are at Jax beach or around that area you see the storm headed towards you but it rarley gets past the Inter Coastal,sea breeze

Miss living in Jacksonville https://www.icwr.ca/

Looks like maybe a pretty potent system around next weekend

Yes after that loose SPV in Dec it bottled up and we just got flooded by the Pac,usally happens anyways some what with back to back Ninas,surprised it wasnt much wamrer but we did break a few highs into winter

Only snow we got was from the Dec early cold snap and that was only a dusting.It was still interesting because i cant ever recall such a active season with LP'S cutting through Alabama and just as well Tn,we usually score here but the cold air was never in place

Think we are about due for a Indian summer,we've been pampered the last few years it seems.Not really sure where the MJO is headed.CFS seems to be the outlier right now,if it craps out into the Maritime/WP June and beyond could be rather warm, but who knows right now

Looks like we could be headed towards a high end moderate to a strong NINO upcoming.When the thresh hold goes above +1(130E-80W)this is always proceeded by this since 1980 a moderate to strong NINO,my theory for 2018 dont look that great no more,dont see nothing breaking this down for a bit. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

I took that post off.i just noticed site hasnt updated in over a week