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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    MJO has some weak signals upcoming but could be going back into the WP,thats a SER signal as we get into Oct.Seems like the CFS is seeing this as well if you look into Africa{maybe a suppressed signal as well) other than timing.But thats a decent KW fixing to pass the IDL.the thermocline between 150W-120W has really been warming lately,this could really warm up Nino 3 pretty much,its already the warmest region right now
  2. jaxjagman
    Really strange you see a tropical storm hit Cali,happened like 84 years ago.I dont think id trust any model into the long rangre,not right now anyways
  3. jaxjagman
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 641 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northeast Mississippi Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms are expected to continue to intensify across the region with a linear cluster evolving, with damaging winds as the primary severe hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 60 miles southeast of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
  4. jaxjagman
    Mesoscale Discussion 1981 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Areas affected...Mid-Mississippi River Valley into the Tennessee Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131653Z - 131900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An MCS moving across the mid-Mississippi River Valley will likely see new re-intensification through the early afternoon hours. This will pose a threat for damaging to severe winds downstream. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A lingering MCS moving out of northern AR has gradually become outflow dominant per KNQA radar imagery over the past few hours. However, over the past 30-60 minutes new convective towers are noted in IR imagery and lightning data, developing along/just behind the gust front as it approaches the MS River. Further re-development and/or re-intensification of the line appears probable through the early afternoon as the MCS approaches a regional buoyancy maximum over northern MS to western TN (MLCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg and rising as temperatures warm into the low 90s). Deep-layer flow over the region is meager with the KNQA VWP and 12 UTC BNA sounding sampling mid-level winds between 20-30 knots. This suggests that storm organization/longevity may be limited, but convectively-augmented (and poorly-sampled) mid/upper-level winds in the vicinity of the attendant MCV over northeast AR and the MO bootheel may support adequate deep-layer shear for a more organized/persistent severe threat. While confidence in favorable kinematics is somewhat low, a downstream damaging wind threat appears likely across western to middle TN and adjacent portions of KY, MS, and AL given the ample buoyancy. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/13/2023
  5. jaxjagman
  6. jaxjagman
    Some of the short range models has been showing the MCS crossing the river right now falling apart before it reaches middle and eastern Tn,they've been pretty bad as of late,so far it seems to be holding together,pwats are around 2" here so it could be a good soaker,thunderstorms in middle and east Tn in a few hours
  7. jaxjagman
    I was thinking the same basically,its been warm but the humidity has been bearable,the past few weeks could have been much worse.Plus as long as ive been living in Tn this might be the best severe ive seen with plentiful MCS action this summer so far
  8. jaxjagman
    Not a very exciting look as we head into next weekend and beyond right now
  9. jaxjagman
    Think hes talking about his parts and yes some parts in the Valley has escaped the brutal warmth,you must be further south/SW where i can understand where you are coming from.
  10. jaxjagman
    Not sure.But right now it looks like Typhoon "LAN" is gonna hit Japan then track into the Sea of Japan where it gets absorbed by a cold front/boundary.After that a ridge builds into East Asia.Seems possible that we see a ridge build into our parts possibly around into next weekend give or take,seems like what the models are hinting at right now
  11. jaxjagman
    Oh man,read this earlier but didnt have time to comment.Was wondering why wasnt posting now i see why.My prayers are with you bud
  12. jaxjagman
  13. jaxjagman
    Tpmorrow has been upgraded Ozarks to Mid South to a enhanced
  14. jaxjagman
    KHAHUN,is a pretty amazing storm,just basically stuck in no mans land with no steering current to kick it.Today the Euro shows it going into South Korea around Mid week finally,tho this could change.This pattern if this storm gets into Korea/Sea of Japan should set up a +PNA.Think we could see once again the potential for a MId Level Ridge build back up to our SW,this would give us a decent shot at MCS action as we head towards next weekend and into it.Unless the models change,we are fixing to get possibly into a real wet pattern in several days '
  15. jaxjagman
    Yes,i agree.Our lawn looks rather nice compared to summers past,some brown patches here and there but over all,not bad for summer.Rain chances will be on the rise as we get further into the week.Euro shows some unseasonable high PWATS as we get into the week,se we'll see.
  16. jaxjagman
    Shows what the mountains can do,while you enjoy the upslopes in winter it combats the heat in summer,not all the time but in general it does
  17. jaxjagman
    Sitting at 92 right now.Heat Index is already over 100.HRRR shows us hitting 100 in a few hours,not sure it's gonna make it,its a little overcast which could hold back temps a couple degrees if nothing changes
  18. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    The East (1+2) has cooled down the last few days,but it wouldnt still take very much to upwell the warm thermocline fairly fast to warm this back up.
  19. jaxjagman
    97 here now.Should see some cool down next week.Short range a strong phoon is being shown headed towards East Asia the next couple days.GFS want to take the storm into the Yellow Sea while the Euro goes into East China.Think parts of the Valley could see a big warm back up as we head towards next weekendStill seems this pattern right now we are in is fixing to get broke as we go into August,hopefully the upper 90's are done but its still summer,this stretch has most definite been the hottest we've seen this season.
  20. jaxjagman
    Lets hope so.We can still get warm in Sept,just look at last year Nashville hit 100 in Sept,think it was Sept 21.,but even that is still rare hitting 100 in Sept,probably influence from NINA as well.
  21. jaxjagman
    Seen a few times when you have TG going into South East China look at the East Coast,i'm not no met here so certainly could be wrong,seems like to me though the potential of TG effecting the East coast should be real as we get into August its just IMO and no forecast
  22. jaxjagman
    Seems like the CFS wants wants to possibly strenghten a decent CCKW the next few days as it possibly moves into the Caribbean as it tracks towards Africa
  23. jaxjagman
    I dont know what the GFS is doing in East Asia,shows two strong typhoons going into South East China the next few days.One should be stronger than the other basically going into the same spot.But the Pattern is breaking down,this might even be our last warmest stretch we see as we go into August again for this summer as the MJO is seemingly going to get into the NH as we get into August.
  24. jaxjagman
    https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20160122#:~:text=The snow total of 8,in Nashville in 28 years.
  25. jaxjagman
    That not the right article but it does mention Jan 22,2016 and that winter
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