jaxjagman

Merry Christmas Mr.Bob,i see you lurking

https://twitter.com/jfd118/status/1739256578346299588/photo/2

Should be possibly a cold front around New Years day as a trough is going through East Asia today but the NAO looks +ive generally cold chasing rain right now look.Still looks like a -ve NAO/AO as we head towards wk 2 of Jan but the PNA is more neutral right now by the GEFS

The SOI has crashed the last couple days 23 Dec 2023 1006.15 1009.45 -36.43 -2.68 -6.55 22 Dec 2023 1006.81 1009.00 -30.67 -2.01 -6.23 21 Dec 2023 1008.66 1007.70 -14.32 -1.59 -6.04 20 Dec 2023 1009.98 1006.70 -2.28 -1.72 -6.09 19 Dec 2023 1010.66 1006.85 0.47 -1.91 -6.36 18 Dec 2023 1010.45 1006.60 0.67 -1.87 -6.65 17 Dec 2023 1011.50 1006.35 7.42 -1.79 -6.95 16 Dec 2023 1011.48 1005.45 11.99 -2.04 -7.25 15 Dec 2023 1010.25 1005.75 4.05 -2.78 -7.56 By the looks of this afternoons GEFS it shows a ridge in East Asia around the New Year then followed by troughs.East Asia should turn cold again like several days ago but this time as it turns cold its showing better teleconnections for us.When it got cold in East Asia several days ago we was dealing with a +ve NAO/AO this time its quite opposite with a more -ve NAO/AO.But if everything holds we should see a ridge in the east into the first week of Jan then a chance to be colder as we get into wk2

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1738191160076554407/photo/1

GFS is trying,but this is the fairytale time frame of it.

I know,where does the MJO go when we get near the mid month of Jan?If the CFS is anywhere right,much of Jan shouldnt be that horrid

Still looks like a strung out mess Christmas day.GFS got slightly better this afternoon,but it still looks like a mess

Euro today at least shows the MJO headed into WP/WH around Christmas,we seemingly will have to wait maybe for some sort of pattern change for awhile.MV has a vid about the extratropics and MJO correlation if you wish to watch https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/videogateway.cgi/id/29036?recordingid=29036

December Tornado Stats Stewart County First tornado in Stewart County since 12/10/2021 No reported deaths or injuries as of 930pm on 12/9 Montgomery County First December tornado on record in Montgomery County First tornado in Montgomery County since 6/19/2021 Deadliest tornado in Montgomery County since April 27, 1970 3 reported deaths are the first in a tornado in Montgomery County since November 10, 2002 (2 deaths) Robertson County First December tornado on record in Robertson County First tornado in Robertson County since 5/4/2021 No reported deaths as of 930pm on 12/9 Dickson County First tornado in Dickson County since 12/11/2021 No reported deaths or injuries as of 930pm on 12/9 There have been 4 tornadoes on record in Dickson County in December (3 of which happened on 12/11/21, 2 EF2s) Cheatham County First tornado in Cheatham County since 12/11/2021 No reported deaths or injuries as of 930pm on 12/9 Davidson County First tornado in Davidson County since 12/11/2021 Deadliest tornado in Davidson County since March 14, 1933 (11 fatalities) 3 reported deaths are the first in a tornado in Davidson County since March 3, 2020 March 3, 2020 tornado had 2 deaths in Davidson County (3 in Wilson County) There have been 7 tornadoes on record in Davidson County in December (highest is an EF-2 on 12/11/2021 Sumner County First tornado in Sumner County since 12/11/2021 Unknown deaths or injuries as of 930pm on 12/9 There have been 4 tornadoes on record in Sumner County in December (F2 highest in 1924, two EF-0s and one EF-1 on 12/11/2021). December 9, 2023 Areawide tornado stats Since the 1800s, there have been 37 tornadoes in the month of December (21 occurred in December 2021, 5 on 12/6 and 16 on 12/10-11) From the 1800s through 2020, only 17 tornadoes were recorded across Middle Tennessee in the month of December (1 occurred in 1800s) Strongest tornado in December in Middle Tennessee was an F4 tornado in Williamson County on 12/24/1988 Other notable EF 3 December tornadoes: December 23, 2015 EF-3 (Wayne, Lawrence, Lewis, Maury) December 10, 2021 EF-3 in Stewart County Since the 1800s there have only been 8 prior tornado fatalities in the month of December, making December 9, 2023 the deadliest December tornado outbreak in Middle TN history Prior December tornado deaths include: 2 fatalities 12/23/2015 Perry/Hickman EF-2 tornado 1 death from the EF4 12/24/1988 Williamson County EF-4 tornado 5 deaths from the 12/28/1865 Giles County Tornado https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20231209

Only what i heard yesterday

13 confirmed last i heard,maybe more when its said and done

Cool one day lets go chase something together,we are pretty close

The EMON looks quite similar to the CFS.Has it into Africa and IO into the new year

You live by there?

Thats what i heard so far

Ch 2 news here are showing live vid of it

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible.

Mesoscale Discussion 2305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Western/central KY...Western/middle TN...Northwest MS...Eastern AR...Northwest AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 714... Valid 091959Z - 092130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 714 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes and isolated severe wind/hail will continue through the afternoon, with storm coverage expected to increase with time. DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells is ongoing early this afternoon from western TN into eastern AR, with occasional rotating cells noted within a larger storm cluster across western KY. A supercell cluster currently approaching the TN/KY border produced an earlier apparent tornado in northwest TN, with another tornado recently noted just southwest of the KHPX radar. The other cells along the broken line will continue to pose a threat of all severe hazards as they move east-northeastward. These cells are ongoing along and just ahead of a composite outflow boundary/cold front that will continue to move eastward this afternoon. Deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary may encourage an increase in storm coverage and a transition to more of a mixed mode with time, though embedded supercells will likely continue to be possible through the afternoon, with all severe hazards possible. The greatest short-term tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) will likely continue to be focused from far northwest MS into western/middle TN, southern KY, and eventually extreme northwest AL, where the most favorable overlap of low-level/deep-layer shear (including 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2 noted on regional VWPs and objective mesoanalyses) and instability (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will persist this afternoon, prior to the arrival of the front. This area is being upgraded to an Enhanced Risk (driven by 10% tornado probabilities) in the upcoming 20Z outlook. Also, downstream watch issuance will likely be needed later this afternoon, as storms approach a larger portion of middle TN into northwest AL.

Plus the models still seem to showing a risk towards Alabama/Tn line vicinity later on IMO

Not sure about that,storm mode looks like it should last until we start to lose diurnal heating ,severe should last until then at least..IMO

This afternoons runs show the system coming through Mid Tn faster than showed yesterday.HRRR seems to be a outlier with SBCapes ranging upwards of 1.5K all the way to Nashville.Who know if the NAM is right there should be a decent half way decent tornado threat in Southern TN,North Alabama into the early evening.See what the next runs show.

I think we are gonna warm up right before Christmas,then turn on the cooler side as we get into Christmas.The Euro seems to want to keep the MJO signal stuck into the WP until mid Dec,GEFS,GEPS and CFS look more progessive.CFS has been showing it into Africa the last few day as we head into Jan